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Paul Waugh here reporting that "Labour are taking other Tory MPs thinking of defecting".
A new PM bounce tends to last a year or so – so with the election more than 2 years away the feelgood of a new pm will be gone by election time
Which means it’s new leader this summer, and then an election within 12 months of that, or give Johnson another year and replace him with a year to go, or… probably the best result for the opposition parties, let him hang on all the way to the next election to try and prove he can win twice. And I suspect he’ll go for that last option if his MPs let him.
and then an election within 12 months of that,
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
I'm sure this'll get lost in a million other posts but how does that guy who just defected square with the guy he ousted? If I was the original MP I'd be mighty peeved he'd stolen my job twice. Which one of them goes forward for Labour at the next election?
Have they run out of dead cats yet?
I’m sure this’ll get lost in a million other posts but how does that guy who just defected square with the guy he ousted?
He didnt oust anyone as such. The previous MP resigned from Labour (either due to his disgust about the antisemitism or due to him being suspended for sexual harassment) and stood as an independent but did actually suggest people vote for Wakeford.
It could be awkward though with the candidate from last time round especially if she was selected by the local party.
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
Fixed parliament terms has always been a load of nonsense.
It had two official ways of calling an early election namely a successful vote of no confidence or a 2/3 majority options to trigger a early election
However the 2/3 approach was pointless since you could go for plan b and pass a act for a general election which would only need the standard majority. As happened in 2019.
I think there is a risk of overanalysing Wakeford's flip to Labour.
He won his seat with a tiny margin of 402 votes. He will lose the next election if he remains Tory. He is in a £80k or so per annum job, he is simply protecting his income. Nothing more noble than that.
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
The Fixed Term Parliament Act simply requires a two-thirds majority vote in the HoC to ignore the time limit and hold an election anyway.
Should really be called the Fixed Term Parliament Unless the Government Fancies an Election Act.
I’m not sure I agree on MPs defecting. I mean, from the point of view of sticking the knife into Johnson, yeah great but it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate. In fact, I think it’s incredibly disingenuous – he’s defecting because he can see that as a Tory, he’ll probably be voted out at the next election which seems a bit of self-serving move. However, people voted for him as a Tory, they wanted a Tory candidate to represent them in parliament.
And now, having voted Tory, and got a Tory, they’ve been switcheroo’d to Labour.
Be aware that calling for a by-election, which many are currently doing online will lead to one when MP's 'lose' the Whip - and this will mean that they are 100% under the control of their Party. So even less likely to disagree with the party line, no matter how crackers.
So even less likely to disagree with the party line, no matter how crackers.
It depends on how it was set up eg if you chose to switch parties then auto byelection but if have the whip withdrawn than allow the constituency to do run a recall vote.
Given the probability people voted for the party and not the MP I do think it is right to give them a choice if the person decides the party is no longer the one for them.
He's going to survive, therefor proving that acting with impunity is OK as a long as a couple of lines of coke gets you through PMQ's.
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term. More revelations to come yet and he has lied in parliament and the proof is there
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term.
In the literal sense. I thought he was having a stroke half-way through PMQs this afternoon.
I thought this was an interesting little twist given today's games.
https://www.burytimes.co.uk/news/18079325.ivan-lewis-urges-people-vote-conservative-beat-corbyn/
Not a chance he will survive to the end of his term. More revelations to come yet and he has lied in parliament and the proof is there
Unlikely that he'll last to the end of his term but as Kryton says above, he'll be there for a while yet. He's got through this round battered but still standing - helped enormously by a very onside Speaker. I can't help but think that if John Bercow was still in the Speaker's Chair, Boris would be significantly worse off!
The lies in parliament have all been very carefully caveated and worded. "implicitly" was used a lot. He's also not apologised - if he did then it would be an admission of guilt but all the non-apologies have been very carefully crafted too. Maybe there's an element of giving him enough rope and he'll hang himself...?
Can they still do that with the fixed term parliament thing?
The Fixed Term Parliament Act simply requires a two-thirds majority vote in the HoC to ignore the time limit and hold an election anyway.
Should really be called the Fixed Term Parliament Unless the Government Fancies an Election Act.
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don't have two thirds
It was only the hubris of Swinson and Corbyn effectively being bounced into it that led to the 2019 general election.
Labour can't get too cocky even now as their support is mainly down to tory voters deserting the party with BJ in charge
I thought he was having a stroke half-way through PMQs this afternoon.
Just heard Radio4 PM’s clipping of this… managed to select the only answer where he sounded like he was on top of things. Very interesting when you’ve heard the whole exchange, where he mostly sounded lost and vacuous.
I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
No because you dont need it.
2019 happened with a separate act which only needed the standard majority.
He’s going to survive
This week at least. Gray report likely middle of next week I think to build up the public anger again. If he survives that then he's good till after may elections I guess
On the subject of the 2019 tory intake - my MP, Mark Jenkinson, is still very much on-board with Johnson. His twitter feed is entertaining to say the least! Photo ops with Priti etc. Worth a look for the responses!
My suspicion is the whips definitely have something on him 😂😂😂
Jenky is also ex-ukip so he was very excited to get on GB News with the other nut-jobs.
I agree he will be there for a while yet - probably till after may - but he has lost both the right and the left of his party for different reasons and the polls look really bad. But because he will not resign he will limp on dead man walking causing more and more damage until his party kick him out
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
Yes but to vote against it is a tricky calculation.
To be up in parliament saying "the Tories are terrible, Labour would do a much better job", and then, given the opportunity to have a general election, turn round and say "actually no you're alright, why not stay in power for another 2 years" isn't the best look...
doesnt there have to be cross party support for this , even with the massive tory majority. I calculate that even with DUP support, the tories don’t have two thirds
It was only the hubris of Swinson and Corbyn effectively being bounced into it that led to the 2019 general election.
No party of opposition will turn down the chance for an election, you are either saying 'but I'll lose', or offering the government an endorsement to carry on doing a good job.
It's why the FTP act is a waste of time, as it still allows the government to choose the timing of a snap election.
The only person controlling BJ's fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
He'll play this out until he's inflicted the maximum torment and utterly humiliated him.
Fun, isn't it? 🙂
All the sinners have cast their first stone now. They are all out in the open.
Problem is that Boris Johnson is still the best there is at the moment as a PM.
Non of those from the oppositions have PM quality no matter what qualification they have coz they look like a damn squid.
For those Tories that stick a knife into the back of the PM, hopefully the people will stick one into them.
Labour govt will be a massive disaster if come into power within these two generations, coz most of the lame ducks are still in the party. You need new blood! The current lot are losers. (there are losers in Tories too but Labour has more).
Boris Johnson should stay and have thick skin no matter what until the next election.
The oppositions are biting down like a mad dog to a bone now because they know if Boris is still the party leader they will have No chance whatsoever to win the next GE.
However, those Tories fools think that by voicing their displeasure towards Boris they have a leg to stand on, they better think again ...
Bloody hell has UK got dumb and dumber parties? I mean the one in charge is dumb but those in the oppositions are dumber.
You/we lot are doom unless you/we are rich middle class elite lefty/communists or middle class righty/aristocrats ...
All the politicians, regardless, are Zombie Maggots.
Problem is that Boris Johnson is still the best there is at the moment as a PM.
Imagine believing that without wanting to top yourself.
The oppositions are biting down like a mad dog to a bone now because they know if Boris is still the party leader they will have No chance whatsoever to win the next GE.
Neither the polls or the Tories agree with you there.
Imagine believing that without wanting to top yourself.
Show me a leader that is better than him at the moment.
I rather have a leader like him than a leader that will tell me how to live my life.
Neither the polls or the Tories agree with you there.
You believe in polls? You might as well believe in my crystal ball.
The only person controlling BJ’s fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
And served at just above absolute zero too!
I think Nadine Dorries has just spent the entire PMQ’s on her phone!
She's being told to shut up by the man in the back-room!
The only person controlling BJ’s fate is Cummings.
His revenge has been sweet indeed.
Cummings is a fool if he thinks revenge is sweet.
People vote for Boris because he takes risks or get the job done unlike the "normal" politicians, not perfect but he is also not really tightening the noose on the people.
The defector MP for Bishop Auckland he just let the people down in that constituency. People wanted change but he just changed it back for them ... back to square one. How dumb can he be?
I know I really shouldn't poke the bear, but...
For those Tories that stick a knife into the back of the PM, hopefully the people will stick one into them.
You really ought to consider your turn of phase @chewkw, given that 2 MP's have been murdered in recent years. 👎
People vote for Boris because he takes risks or get the job done
What jobs has he 'got done'?
Aside making his mates richer, making the people poorer or helping us to one of the worst Covid fatality rate?
You really ought to consider your turn of phase @chewkw, given that 2 MP’s have been murdered in recent years. 👎
OOpps ... I see. Completely forgotten about that.
Rephrase should be "... to show no confident in them and to vote them out".
What jobs has he ‘got done’?
Aside making his mates richer, making the people poorer or helping us to one of the worst Covid fatality rate?
Sorry but most politicians make their mates richer so try not to hang to that moral high ground coz that point does not work with me.
You blame Covid fatality rate on PM? Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
You have to remember that Bury South was something of an oddity at the last election. There was a very specific issue that led to the result at the last GM. Or, more accurately, a specific person…
Correct. Ivan Lewis was the disgraced incumbent, and having been suspended from Labour, ran as an independent and split the vote.
Sorry but most politicians make their mates richer so try not to hang to that moral high ground coz that point does not work with me.
You blame Covid fatality rate on PM? Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
Yes I do blame Boris.
Being the 'leader' at the time.
Yes I do blame Boris.
Being the ‘leader’ at the time.
Unless the person is a "Billy no mates".
The term is mates. That's what mates do for each other. If a person doesn't help his/her mates who does s/he help?
Politicians who are a "Billy no mates" has No chance or potential whatsoever to be elected.
When was the last time you see a "Billy no mates" become a leader?
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
That suites the Tories fine. It's a subtle but effective voter suppression, "they are all the same, why bother".
Anyway, this government has totally blown that idea out of the window.
I don't think there has been anything remotely like this shower in living memory. Tory, Lib or Labour.
I rather have a leader like him than a leader that will tell me how to live my life.
You want a leader who doesn't lead?
That suites the Tories fine. It’s a subtle but effective voter suppression, “they are all the same, why bother”.
Nope, it would be silly to stick blindly to a party.
I kept referring to "two generations" because I do not see any quality in the current crop of politicians ... all of them.
I mean look at all of them how can they keep messing up? Party after party ...
All they need to do is "do nothing" and let the people breath.
You want a leader who doesn’t lead?
Lead but not noose.
p/s: Mate is some sort of retired Prof who used to teach/research leadership whatever ... I asked him what leadership meant and he laughed, then told me it was just a lot of fertiliser coz nobody agrees ... LOL!
I mean look at all of them how can they keep messing up? Party after party
Out of interest which Prime minister was in power when you first voted?
Out of interest which party were in power when you first voted?
Labour was in power. Blair then Brown then who? (p/s: Cameron then May then Boris)
But I was also here long time ago when Thatcher (then John Major) was the PM (I voted for Green because I was trying to impress a female ... I was dirty then. It was like in the Benny Hill comedy when that girl winked at me I just followed.
Ahh Thatcher.
First and only riot I've been at was the Poll tax Riot. Was queueing for a gig as it kicked off massively.
Poll tax IIRC was roughly a month of my apprentice wages.
Ahh Thatcher.
First and only riot I’ve been at was the Poll tax Riot. Was queueing for a gig as it kicked of massively.
Poll tax IIRC was roughly a month of my apprentice wages.
LOL! Yeap was there with mates but I had no idea about poll tax but the female winked at me again so I went ... Looking back now I really feel like in a Benny Hill sketch ... she ended up sleeping with my friend ... D'oh!
p/s: I have voted for all major parties in my life from left to right whatever ... I feel dirty.
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
And with that, this thread has descended into non-sequitur gibberish. 2008 wants it's memes back.
You blame Covid fatality rate on PM? Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
Because yesterday covid claimed the lives of 438 people. Thus far, Britain's covid dead number 175,000 including my uncle and my mum. Johnson wants to end restrictions, mostly because of pressure from the Covid Recovery Group, a bunch of hard-right "Libertarians" who want to allow the virus to let rip. These guys don't like science that disagrees with their aims, so they seek to set the narratives themselves.
Why not look at the place of origin for Covid?
Honestly, I don't blame Wuhan's bushmeat market for the loss of my family members, but I do blame our inept government who frequently ignored the science over ideological grounds.
Workaholic successful ex-Brexit minister David Davis quoting the genocidal, slave owning mass murderer Cromwell.
Wasn't the quote referring to when it was used against Chamberlain prior to Churchill? Hence Boris would have fully understood the context
^^ That's what I thought?
I think he has made further statements to the Telegraph though, is it in there?
Honestly, I don’t blame Wuhan’s bushmeat market for the loss of my family members, but I do blame our inept government who frequently ignored the science over ideological grounds
This. Covid hasn't in anyway hurt me as much, I'm sorry to hear of your loss.
Two people are missing from my 'Freinds list' who would probably still be here if it was handled better.
My Oh is 6 months into Long Covid. She caught it a week after it was declared masks weren't needed on public transport anymore.
She was due her second jab a week later.
Coincidence, maybe but maybe not.
Hence Boris would have fully understood the context
I don't think he did get it at all from his reaction. But then his book on churchill was apparently laughable it was so poor.
He got it alright and then lied again pretending he didn't know what DD meant
I’m sorry to hear of your loss.
Thank you.
Two people are missing from my ‘Freinds list’ who would probably still be here if it was handled better.
My Oh is 6 months into Long Covid. She caught it a week after it was declared masks weren’t needed on public transport anymore.
I too am sorry for you losing two of your friends and for having a partner still suffering from long covid. I sincerely hope that your OH recovers very soon.
Our government could do better with regard to mitigating Covid, much, much better. I must confess that I harbour a cold loathing towards those backbenchers who lobby for the removal of covid restrictions. I would love to have the privilege of ten minutes of Steve Baker's private time so that I could explain the depth of my feelings with regard to this matter.
Chewkh?
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Chewkw?
This wee character only ever comes here to troll and will always resort to non-sequitur or gibberish when challenged. That's all he does.
I see all politicians equally as Zombie Maggots regardless. The only different is that some do less damage than others.
Most right-wing voters are now believing this, because the people they voted for have been shown to be utterly crap and corrupt.
This wee character only ever comes here to troll and will always resort to non-sequitur or gibberish when challenged. That’s all he does.
It's not all he does. You can tell when he's doing it because typing / grammar goes out of the window. He can make sensible contributions when he puts his mind to it.
There's a weird inconsistency that I probably shouldn't speculate any further on for fear of typing something I might regret on the morrow.
It’s not all he does. You can tell when he’s doing it because typing / grammar goes out of the window. He can make sensible contributions when he puts his mind to it.
Yep, that trend is not unnoticed. It's almost as if the gibberish is deployed like chaff whenever he's faced with any sort of rational argument.
There’s a weird inconsistency that I probably shouldn’t speculate any further on for fear of typing something I might regret on the morrow.
Yeah.
PJM1974
Free MemberAnd with that, this thread has descended into non-sequitur gibberish. 2008 wants it’s memes back.
I ****ing hate Chewkw's posts. He's a thread vandal. Not even a troll, he's the equivalent of Tox, just endlessly tagging everything with the same repetetive crap that does nothing but make everything uglier.
on the morrow
A turn of phrase not often seen
The trouble with Administrations that start to flounder like this one has is that all their attention is directed to just keeping hold of power. Everything else is secondary to that. Energy prices, cost of living crisis, COVID, idiotic Brexit, all of it is going to be ignored just because one man didn't get on with another man's wife and was sacked, and now wants revenge
idiots.
People vote for Boris because he takes risks or get the job done unlike the “normal” politicians, not perfect but he is also not really tightening the noose on the people.
Well technically people voted for the candidate in their respective constituency. But yes we all understand that the one next to 'Conservative' on the ballot might as well be interchangeable with BJ...
TBH I see no reason to insulate Wakeford from a by-election, but let's not ignore the reason he took this course of action, confidence in the leader and the policies, allegedly he was discussing his defection months ago and had concerns about a couple of policies.
That he's not really distinguished himself up to now for challenges from the back benches, but has crossed the floor a bit of a visible statement perhaps suggests he's not really MP material and/or speaks to the nature of populists once they get a sniff of office...
Wakeford - call me cynical but its nothing to do with policy and everything to do with an attempt to remain an MP after the next election. He knows he has no chance as a tory. As the sitting labour MP he might have a chance but somehow I doubt the local party will just roll over and select him
I share the cynical view on his motives, though the BBC article suggests that he opposed things like cuts to universal credit but was pressured by Whips to vote for it, and it was policies and heavy handed Whips that made him move.
Suspect self interested pragmatism as much as idealism motivated his policy concerns. He'd be getting an easier ride if he'd defied the whips before defecting
Yep, that trend is not unnoticed. It’s almost as if the gibberish is deployed like chaff whenever he’s faced with any sort of rational argument.
There’s a weird inconsistency that I probably shouldn’t speculate any further on for fear of typing something I might regret on the morrow.
Are you saying the PM spends their time on STW?
Wakeford – call me cynical but its nothing to do with policy and everything to do with an attempt to remain an MP after the next election
Dunno, I don't want to use the other 'B' word but it was still a factor in the wave of populism that returned Bozza as PM and Redbrick tory MPs like Wakeford, I can't imagine crossing the floor will save his seat at the next GE. He's hardly an Asset to any party he might join now...
Those constituents that "Voted for Boris" by proxy through Wakeford will just see him as a slippery traitor to the cause. Those who voted for for other candidates will see him as an opportunist trying to jump off the populist train before it crashes. So he's got pretty much no chance now, if he avoids a BE, and Labour were to put him up at the next GE (rather than an actual Labour candidate) I can see them losing Bury South...
Dunno if it's "conviction politics" but the story given on R4 last night was that he approached Labour 4 months ago with issues over the Parliamentary tory party's culture, and policies they'd enacted since coming to power...
Having just googled it his majority at the GE was just 402, He's a been a conservative party member for 20 years so hardly a natural fit for Labour outside of this nonsense with an already marginal seat... He's knackered as an MP either way I reckon...
Boris' fans are giving him a week or so of "breathing space" apparently, but I'd expect some more 'party-gate' or 'cash for chums leaks' before the weekend... Dom must be loving this now.
He’s a been a conservative party member for 20 years so hardly a natural fit for Labour outside of this nonsense with an already marginal seat… He’s knackered as an MP either way I reckon…
To be fair if the guys been a tory member for 20years and decides that's he's made a horrible mistake, kudos to him for walking away. I'd respect someone more who can recognise when they've gone off on the wrong path rather than blind tribal loyality.
To be fair if the guys been a tory member for 20years and decides that’s he’s made a horrible mistake, kudos to him for walking away.
Possibly aside from the fact he showed no signs of standing up for his apparent beliefs when he could have done over the last few months and he has a rather significant paycheck depending on it.
That he also sponsored a bill that MPs should resign and stand in a byelection if they switch parties doesnt really help his case.
Wraggs comments tie in with some of the stuff Wakeford was pleading in the BBC article.
I've seen copies of the whips' apparent shit-list on Twitter which includes Wragg and the supposed 'dirt' they have on him.
It really is the gift that keeps on giving...
TBH I see no reason to insulate Wakeford from a by-election, but let’s not ignore the reason he took this course of action, confidence in the leader and the policies, allegedly he was discussing his defection months ago and had concerns about a couple of policies.
Some of the behaviour by the whips and government is borderline criminal. There were a couple of tweets yesterday suggesting tanks were removed from the MP's lawn or he was off for a walk to Scotland Yard to make a statement supporting a formal criminal complaint.
£5 says Johnson says Martyn Reynolds failed to show him that e-mail and Reynolds is the next fall guy. I've sure he'll be compensated with a cushy job somewhere in return.
I ****ing hate Chewkw’s posts. He’s a thread vandal. Not even a troll, he’s the equivalent of Tox, just endlessly tagging everything with the same repetetive crap that does nothing but make everything uglier.
I enjoy Chewkws posts and like graffiti- I must be a **** 🙂
There is good graffiti and then there is really, really shit graffiti
I can't hate Chewkw, he just isn't nasty enough.
I don't hate chewkw, I just hate his mindless tags. I used to hate some forum posters but I figure even the biggest arseholes have reasons for being the biggest arseholes so I try to empathise. Hate leads to the dark side and frankly I've killed enough kids already.