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I'm thinking these are the 2 most likely outcomes (based on my extensive research of looking at Twitter a bit and the news).
1) Enough letters of no-confidence are filed to trigger a VONC in the next few days, Boris survives it, maybe some of the Red Wall Tories cross the floor to try to save their bacon come 2024, knowing they'll either lose, or Johnson will get his revenge in, either way, they they won't be Tory MPs after the next election. Labour win the next election, probally forming a coalition Government, what with all the redrawing off constituencies and photo ID at the polling station stuff.
Backbenchers either hold fire until they're sure they've got the numbers, or surprise surprise the Sue Gray report explicitly says that Johnson was warned the Party was probably illegal and either didn't respond, or shrugged it off. The letters come flooding in, Johnson loses, Sunak and Truss end up as the final two, Truss will likely win as she's selling herself as Johnson 2.0, maybe she calls an early election to cement her position, it will depend how the polls react to Johnson going.
I can't wait to see how wrong I am.
Well, 12 Pork Pie Plotters have handed letters into the 1922... Some obviously bottled it.
Christian Wakeford, Tory MP, red waller, has just defected to Labour!
Woop!!
maybe some of the Red Wall Tories cross the floor to try to save their bacon come 2024,
good prediction
Christian Wakeford, the Tory MP for Bury South is defecting to the Labour party, Sebastian Payne of the Financial Times has tweeted.
Bah - scooped by a poop!
I just saw that! I recall this happening before and there being clamouring for a byelection, but I believe that isn't actually necessary?
OH MY GOD !!
For once I beat you tj. Lol
Amazing stuff eh mate? PMQ going to be a must watch.
Rumours of more defections.
Let's hope for a few more during the January transfer window.
tjagain
Full Member
Bah – scooped by a poop!
I was typing like a madman to get in first for a change.lol
Good timing just before PMQs!!
WOWWEE WEE WAH!!!!
but I believe that isn’t actually necessary?
No because you elect the MP and not the party. Its actually unusual for the MP to call a byelection.
History being made!
Wakeford has issued a statement.
SKY reading it.
It's bloody damning for Boris and the tories.
His letter nails it.
For so many that voted Conservative, it will echo their own thoughts right now.
I find it quite funny that the Bury MP has moved from Tory to Labour. The people who voted for him must be livid. He'll be pelted with black puddings the next time he's out in his constituency.
The writing's on the wall for the "red wall" MPs. He must know that he's going to lose the next election or he'll be replaced by Labour HQ. Jumping ship now just temporarily bloodies Johnson's nose. If enough of them move it'll be more interesting
Both back benches packed.
good prediction
Lucky guess, but I'll take it!
I don't blame him, well from a purely practical point of view, obviously he's had to 'change his mind' on a number of key policies to see him more aligned with Labour... Or more likely he won his seat by a wafer thin margin and stood a poor chance of re-election before this fiasco and little to no chance after it, he's no doubt made a deal to keep the red rosette for next election.
I find it quite funny that the Bury MP has moved from Tory to Labour.
My MP. I didn't vote for him BTW. What happens now? Will he stay my MP?
Yes. Labour won't deselect him as he's aligned to their cause of ousting the Tories. (For now)
It's a huge PR disaster for the Govt but small fry compared to the last 2 years
I find it quite funny that the Bury MP has moved from Tory to Labour. The people who voted for him must be livid. He’ll be pelted with black puddings the next time he’s out in his constituency.
The writing’s on the wall for the “red wall” MPs. He must know that he’s going to lose the next election or he’ll be replaced by Labour HQ. Jumping ship now just temporarily bloodies Johnson’s nose. If enough of them move it’ll be more interesting
I'm sure the life long Tory voters in Bury will hate him for it, but, if you believe the press Bury went from Red to Blue either because of Corbyn or to 'Save Brexit', Corbyn's gone and we've left the EU, whether we think it's 'done' or not, if he didn't secure at least a promise of standing for Labour next time, he's mad.
Starmer on form! Exuding confidence.
Liking it.
"bring your own boos" 😂
One down, 79 to go.....
But as an aside, will photo ID hinder the Tory vote too? Lots of older folk may not have passports or driving licenses - my dad renewed his license just to have the ID, so presumably there's no pic on a bus pass
I’m sure the life long Tory voters in Bury will hate him for it, but, if you believe the press Bury went from Red to Blue either because of Corbyn or to ‘Save Brexit’, Corbyn’s gone and we’ve left the EU, whether we think it’s ‘done’ or not, if he didn’t secure at least a promise of standing for Labour next time, he’s mad.
The previous MP (Ivan Lewis) stood as an independent, after a falling out with the Corbyn regime, and split the vote. If that hadn't happened Wakeford wouldn't have won.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000612
Starmer is openly mocking him Its hilarious
Q "Should a Prime Minister who lies to Parliament resign"
A "I thank the people of the UK for getting vaccinated"
How many questions will be answered with reference to the vaccines?
Don't mention the Queen!
Interesting rule. 21st Century Britain.
Starmer finishes on cost of living crisis, perfect.
Tories making positive noises on the benches for Boris, I'm glad. Let the infighting continue, let them go down with the sinking ship.👍
BJ is an @RSEHOLE.
And.... Blackford for dessert.
Nice.
Starmer finishes on cost of living crisis, perfect.
And Johnson finishes on Vaccines/Booster. Was that in every one of his "answers"?
Starmer slipped in the steel industry as well, Truss has completely failed to get the USA to drop tariffs. Getting ready to switch targets there I think.
I think Nadine Dorries has just spent the entire PMQ's on her phone!
And Johnson finishes on Vaccines/Booster. Was that in every one of his “answers”?
So far, yes. The British public trust everything that the Government have done because they've come forward in their droves to get vaccinated.
In spite of the fact that the vaccine programme was underway long before #PartyGate broke.
I wonder how many Tory MPs are presently looking at similar figures
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1483774295956496389?s=21
How the hell is the PM allowed to simply ignore the question that is being asked of him and respond with some unrelated statement that's more of a campaign speech ?
Shouldn't the speaker call him out on that and get him to actually answer the question????
Shouldn’t the speaker call him out on that and get him to actually answer the question????
Standard PMQ protocol. It's just a show. It's why Boris likes it when it's all going well, he's basically just a showman.
Shouldn’t the speaker call him out on that and get him to actually answer the question????
previous speakers were tougher on this but over the last few years its been degraded to this point
Blimey! David Davis calling for his resignation too 😳
I get it's just a show, but maybe starmer should just say "you've not answered the question" repeatedly just to emphasize how blatant the avoidance is. Most people out there probably don't realise just how bad it is.
Another key Brexitier has called for Johnson to go.
EDIT : as Binners has said
David Davis has just gone up in my estimation!
Et tu, Brute?
I think Nadine Dorries has just spent the entire PMQ’s on her phone!
Working?
https://twitter.com/chrisandariane/status/1483779461749166081?t=ejao62tZzYRGcYxa2Nmrqw&s=19
David Davis puts the boot in.
David Davis wins PMQ today. Brutal!
Shouldn’t the speaker call him out on that and get him to actually answer the question????
previous speakers were tougher on this but over the last few years its been degraded to this point
Once again I am reminded of the difference between Westminster and Holyrood.
BJ is just laughing at the public with both ignoring questions asked and shallow, co-ordinated questions about anything but the real issues our nation's face.
Bollocks, I turned it off after Blackford had finished…should have stayed 😞
Dorries is probably the most clueless & useless thing I've seen in Westminster.
Dorries is probably the most clueless & useless thing I’ve seen in Westminster.
That is extremely high praise given the competition...
You won't even have heard of my MP Dierdre Brock but she is both dim and useless and a liar to boot
Interesting that the PM who wrote a biography of Churchill should claim not be familiar with the words used by Leo Amery to Chamberlain.
Wonderful, probably the most personally painful words anyone could have delivered. Lets hope this enquiry keeps dragging on and more and more slowly leaks out, watching the dawning realisation on the faces of each and every rat is a delight
One down, 79 to go…..
39 innit.
Johnsons response to Blackford was poor
https://twitter.com/g_gosden/status/1483778705155665921?t=yoFeKcZ4CBpryo4SEnaHXQ&s=19
I think she'll find that Union Jack face mask is very welcome on that side of the house.
A double win for Labour, puts to bed the idea fostered under Corbyn that Labour is somehow unpatriotic.
As a visual meme it separates patriotism from nationalism.
No, I don't want the enquiry to drag on, I don't want leaks and daily tittle tattle while our politicians argue around things that they shouldn't be having to.
I want them to focus on the issues we now face - our impeding economic challenges, recovery from pandemic, climate change, energy supply and more.
I want those that behaved like this to be booted out without ceremony - politicians and the sycophants that surround them. I want the police to investigate, as they should be, I want the speaker of the house to actually do his job, I want the opposition to up their game and stop falling short of their role.
FFS.
One down, 79 to go…..
39 innit.
My maths fail - shall we agree 40 more to be sure?
I want the opposition to up their game and stop falling short of their role.
What can they do? The desperate chancer party still have a massive majority. 🙁
SKY reporting that the whips are ordering MP's to "get on the airwaves" to defend Johnson.
Good stuff, it discredits them as well as Johnson.
I bet not many will though.
Even that lot know when they are being sent to the firing squad
That’s 3MPs he’s lost in 6 months - 2 by-elections lost & a defection.
If he keeps going at that rate, in 6.5 years there'll be no need for a general election!
Oh, hang on...
I want those that behaved like this to be booted out without ceremony – politicians and the sycophants that surround them. I want the police to investigate, as they should be, I want the speaker of the house to actually do his job, I want the opposition to up their game and stop falling short of their role.
Well @matt_outandabout gets my vote to be PM! 😉
Shouldn’t the speaker call him out on that and get him to actually answer the question????
No, not really. He's calls MPs to ask questions and when they finish he calls the Prime Minster to answer them, but it's not a requirement for him to ensure the PM answers the questions to the satisfaction of the MP asking, if he did, they'd simply spend hours debating what constituted a "complete answer".
That's not the point really. Today was a shit-show for Johnson, he squired and slithered and ducked any question that wasn't some bit of fluff from his own side. It started with a defection and ended with a kick in the nuts from David ****ing Davies of all people, he's taking shit from moderates and Tory-ultras alike, it's 2.5 years to the next GE, which is probally enough time for him to crawl from under, but he has to turn it around quickly, but the Tories know it's also enough time to get a new face in now, ride out the good vibes from the end of the Pandemic as and when it arrives, a new PM will no doubt throw some money at the energy crisis and they might just stay in power.
Not sure if it's been posted previously...
That "I don't do what I tell you" line in that video ... it's a reminder of the obvious cunning plan unfolding in front of us ... keep saying "wait for the report on my staff that one of my staff is writing" until Johnson is no longer "telling us" to do anything as regards public health measures, in the hope that the outrage about Johnson's "one rule for the little people, and another for us, and of course I kept lying to try and cover that up, so what" attitude dies down because he's telling us we can now do whatever we want. He's hoping for short memories. It's been two very hard years though, and I'm not sure his duplicity will be so easily forgotten.
What can they do?
Perhaps stop stick to parliamentary rules and call a liar a liar until either the Speaker does his job a holds the PM to account or all opposition MPs have been ‘named’ and the system is shown to be the historic mess it really is.
avdave2
Free MemberInteresting that the PM who wrote a biography of Churchill should claim not be familiar with the words used by Leo Amery to Chamberlain.
Yep, but he created the "autobiography" by just making shit up and rewriting history to fit his cosplay version of Churchill. I think my favourite bit is when Churchill singlehandedly saves the war after the fall of stalingrad.
No, not really. He’s calls MPs to ask questions and when they finish he calls the Prime Minster to answer them, but it’s not a requirement for him to ensure the PM answers the questions to the satisfaction of the MP asking, i
The speaker can and used to ask the PM to answer the question - its not to the satisfaction of the questioner but to the speakers satisfaction
This power used to be used much more.
There's a great deal to unpick here, not the least of which is the growing realisation that the hard-right (and offshore funded) Tory libertarians have an agenda that's at odds with the electorate on virtually every issue. We're also seeing the coalition of media outlets who'd backed Johnson to "get Brexit done" (sic) are all competing to get their preferred candidate to succeed Johnson.
Anyway, back to Christian Wakeford, the newest Labour MP in Parliament.
Firstly, the disarray among the restive backbenchers has been kept in check thanks to party whips but it's clear that the new intake of Tory MPs from 2019 are struggling to mollify their constituents who'd taken a punt on Johnson. These MPs are mostly drawn from the ranks of local council candidates, they're inexperienced and the individuals who aren't predictably dim know that they're likely to be seen as expendable by party HQ.
The wheels of Wakeford's defection weren't set in motion by "Partygate" - the colossal balls up over Owen Patterson's corruption played a huge role in this (Wakefield himself reportedly called Owen Patterson a "c***". From Wakefield's statement: “My decision is about much more than your leadership and the disgraceful way you have conducted yourself in recent weeks".
He continues: “It needs a government that upholds the highest standards of integrity and probity in public life and sadly both you and the Conservative Party as a whole have shown themselves incapable of offering the leadership and government this country deserves.”
Ouch.
From what I've read this morning, it seems that Wakeford has been engaged in informal discussion with the Labour Party for quite some time. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Wakeford won't be the last Red Wall Tory to defect. If more MPs follow Wakeford, it'll clearly put Johnson under additional pressure to resign before May's local elections.
The Tories cannot simply vote in a new leader and expect business as usual to follow, they know that none of the candidates to succeed Johnson have much in the way of charisma or guile. It's possible to plot the likes of Raab, Patel, Truss, Hunt, et al on a Venn Diagram with the headings Thick and Nasty.
It’s possible to plot the likes of Raab, Patel, Truss, Hunt, et al on a Venn Diagram with the headings Thick and Nasty.
That's not so much a Venn diagram, more of a Circle.
the Tories know it’s also enough time to get a new face in now, ride out the good vibes from the end of the Pandemic as and when it arrives
Hmm but we're going straight into inflation, high fuel prices and supply shortages.
There was a quote on the BBC of a voter in the "Pork Pie Constituency" saying "We were all in favour of Boris being PM because we felt he was a man of the people". Just shows how deluded they are.
Kudos to cassetteboy for 1) the mix in itself and 2) having to sift through hours of that goon to get the necessary clips.
Still think at next PMQs Starmer & Blackford should just stand up and say "No questions from us, there's no point he'll either lie or not answer" and walk out.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Wakeford won’t be the last Red Wall Tory to defect.
I'm not sure I agree on MPs defecting. I mean, from the point of view of sticking the knife into Johnson, yeah great but it's a bit of a kick to the electorate. In fact, I think it's incredibly disingenuous - he's defecting because he can see that as a Tory, he'll probably be voted out at the next election which seems a bit of self-serving move. However, people voted for him as a Tory, they wanted a Tory candidate to represent them in parliament.
And now, having voted Tory, and got a Tory, they've been switcheroo'd to Labour.
It's like going into a restaurant, ordering steak and then, half way through your steak dinner, it's whipped away and replaced with a pizza.
the Tories know it’s also enough time to get a new face in now, ride out the good vibes from the end of the Pandemic as and when it arrives
As Molls has pointed out, if you look at the foreseeable future, good vibes and LOLs are going to be in very, very short supply both financially and politically.
Factor in that the candidates touted to take over from the fly-tipped sofa have all the combined 'charm' of a rabid Rottweiler, mixed with the intellectual dynamism of a cup-a-soup, you can see the reason why Johnson is still in place.
it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate
You’ve seen the current polling/projections in his constituency, yes? Arguably he’s listened to his electorate, if they have changed their minds and told him so, rather than kick them and tell them he’s not for budging from what they wanted a few years ago.
it’s a bit of a kick to the electorate
You have to remember that Bury South was something of an oddity at the last election. There was a very specific issue that led to the result at the last GM. Or, more accurately, a specific person...
It's normally safe as houses for Labour, but it's not referred to as Manchester's kosher moat for nothing. It has an enormous Jewish population (one of the largest in Europe) and I know the usual suspects will now set about me for pointing this uncomfortable fact out but... and this may shock you... they weren't massively enamoured with Jeremy Corbyn. Who knows why?
I think the polling just published today is more reflective of the constituency than the result of the last election and you're probably best looking at as more a judgement on local opinions to the labour party, pre and post Magic Grandad
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1483774295956496389?s=20
A new PM bounce tends to last a year or so - so with the election more than 2 years away the feelgood of a new pm will be gone by election time