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Thinking of getting a Brand X dropper 125 mm but would still like to fit a mudguard if needed.
Will one fit in this space? Guard has to go in this position to compensate for full travel.

Top of seat rail to bottom for dropper collar on mine is 190mm, that'll leave you around 25mm for your mudguard, so it looks like yes, a 120mm Brand X will fit and leave room for your mudguard.
Hmmm.... mines an older 120mm Ascend, looks like the new ones are 125mm so that might drop you down to 20mm for your mudguard if the stack height remains the same (making a 125mm dropper 195mm from top of rails to bottom of collar).
Mudhugger will always fit .
External or internal routed have different sizes form they?
Also double check you have enough room inside the frame, brand X seatpost reasonable long and sometimes foul stuff in full sus frames. The 125mm dropper is 412mm long.