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Morning all, the sun is out in Birmingham, football is coming home and the tour is about to get interesting.
This is another scenic stage, especially at the beginning with the breath taking landscapes of the beaches near the fortress of Fort-Bloqué, Pont-Aven, the city of the painters (Paul Gauguin, Emile Bernard…) and the fortified town of Concarneau. The second half is kind of an Ardennes classic with narrow roads, short and brutal climbs from Saint-Goazec (km 103) onwards. The focus will be on Ménez Quélerc’h, a very famous 2.9km straight climb in Breton cycling with some sections at 16%. It’s often the decisive point of the 1.1 Boucles de l’Aulne in May but the last 35km will be similar to those of the Tour du Finistère already experienced this year by Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen and Romain Bardet. It includes the medieval village of Locronan and the tricky côte de la chapelle Notre-Dame-de-Lorette with 12km to go. It’s also a slightly uphill finish in Quimper with the same finishing line but from the opposite direction as stage 7 won by Thor Hushovd in 2004
Stage profile?
Last 5km? Bit lumpy actually.
Who's in the mix?
he Contenders: today’s stage has an air of Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Julian Alaphilippe (Quick Step) is an obvious pick for the stage win and the yellow jersey is within reach too. He’s a sharp finisher but prone to the odd mistake because he’s sometimes too keen to win, too quick to use up energy. Team mate Philippe Gilbert can play his part too but he’s not got the explosive finish that was his lethal weapon.
Can Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) hang on? The Paris-Roubaix winning version may find this too hilly but the Tour de Suisse Sagan may have this just within reach, it’s up to the others and their teams to eject him otherwise if he’s in contention once they round the last left-hand bend he’s a likely winner.
Michael Matthews (Team Sunweb) is arguably a better climber than Sagan and sitting ninth overall, what ever plans the team have for Tom Dumoulin surely they can release Matthews from team duties today and tomorrow. In case of a sprint from a reduced peloton the likes of Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) and Magnus Cort Nielsen (Astana) could feature too.
What chance Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing)? He’s had a brief spell in yellow but there’s more to his repertoire than the team time trial. He’s not been far off in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and has won a mid-mountain stage of the Tour de France already. It’s just at the risk of falling between two stools, if he’s in the finish then either the likes of Alaphilippe are fresher or Sagan is more powerful.
If things get very attritional what about Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)? He’s a safer pick to finish in the top-10 today. The same for Geraint Thomas (Team Sky).
Can the breakaway make it? Yes but the early move that goes clear from the start risks being swamped by a later move. But who to pick for a move with 25km to go? So many teams have strict, defined ambitions for this Tour and therefore won’t be firing riders up the road at random meaning fewer names to chose from. Still Arthur Vichot (Groupama-FDJ), Julien Simon (Cofidis), Lilian Calmejane (Direct Energie) and Michael Valgren(Astana) fit the bill.
And of course, a couple of pics from yesterday.
Tight.
The break.
The victor.
Cool stage Bro.
Ahhh, back into the Breton landscape 🤠
Won’t be GvA because no one will let him off the front, despite him without contract for 2019.
Could be another QS day, PhilAwesomeGil is my pick. 1) becuse he’s awesome, 2) becuse he’s just had a hair cut, 3) it’s his last tour, 4) he’s Belgian and the back end of this is very Belgian’esk.
Calmejane? Yeah, for a French pick why not. But also AG2rs Dillier could be a hard man for today.
Sags? Nah. He will hoover up the points but not the stage.
Exciting this one.
Looks like it could be a great stage, although it does have the potential for being a bit like another sprint stage, but with skinnier guys at the end - like an Ardennes classic.
Actually, having just typed that I remembered how much I love the ardennes classics and got EXCITED.
Wonder why Dan Martin didn't figure in the INRNG preview. Perhaps not hilly enough for him.
Maybe Nibali will try something.
I'll have Valverde then or the Lotto NL Jumbo bloke i forget who loves these sort of stages.
This is more of a heart call than a head one but Geraint Thomas. He's up there in the standings, it'll take pressure of Chris Froome, he's good at these sort of Classics style parcours...
Gilbert will be well up there for all the reasons that @bikebouy said.
Movistar are due a better day, so, if the break doesn't survive, I'm going Valverde. Maybe.
*Given the cobble stage coming soon certain teams could want the yellow jumper so that their team car is at the head of the vehicles in the event of a problem on the pave. A knackered bike in cobble section could be costly for a team leader. Also it means you car gets to block all the other team vehicles in the event of a pile up. Sky could be giving it ago today or tomorrow to get Thomas in yellow.
*could be total bollocks.
mt - that's very Brailsford!
Looks like Michael Matthews and Teisj Benoot have both pulled out this morning. Benoot from his crash yesterday and Matthews from sickness/fever overnight.
Shame about both of those, either could've been strong today!
Teisj Benoot
LOL that's him.... the guy i said would win today !
Fairly sure Benoot is a Lotto Soudal rider not NL Jumbo!
tough crowd.
Gilbert but the reason given for Sky wanting to be at front for stage 9 above makes a lot of sense so maybe G will have a pop.
I would have thought GvA is a good bet to keep yellow going into Roubaix - and probably coming out too.
I've been looking forward to this stage, lots of possible winners (including GvA of course). Agree with mt re. the team cars for Roubaix and it's pretty tight at the top. Perhaps those bonifications will play a part after all.
it does like great in Brittany today. Would love to be there. I wonder if BMC can maintain the pressure of being the yellow jumper team for a good portion of the race. After the Roubaix I'd lose for a few days.
Who will be making the best of the technicals on the cobbles?
https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1016789774638747648?s=19
That looks very interesting Flashy, very Flandrien.
Cor, that looks ace 👍👍👍👍☀️
I think that looks ace for one or two people on a sunday pootle, not so sure about whole peloton arriving at bottle neck at once!
Love to se GvA do it today, but as said, a marked man. Sagan for me. G won’t be contending this he’s the TTer who climbs now. That’s GC material.
Where’s big Sep when you need him?
G won’t be contending this he’s the TTer who climbs now. That’s GC material.
That's what they want you to think... 😉
@mt is right, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the teams in the next couple of days in order to get convoy position. You'll probably find some teams resorting to Roubaix style tactics of having team members on every cobbled sector with wheeels, spares etc.
What happened to Cav, why's he off the back?
What happened to Cav, why’s he off the back?
Did Dumolan catch him with a release?
His team say Bora are driving it too hard for some of the sprinters to keep up.
Guess what? I put Matthews and ben not in my Fantasy TdF team last night……bollocks!
Cav losing 8 mins on a flat stage so far... my money has him pulling out before too long. Seems to be lacking race fitness even on stages that should suit him.
Just noticed the guy in who was at the front, Skuntch or whatever his name is, has got disc brakes. Are there many others using discs this year?
Are there many others using discs this year?
Loads. I commented on it on one of the previous stage threads.
That finish looked brutal, it was basically all the Classics riders. Is there nothing that Sagan can't win on? Good dig by Gilbert and G was up towards the front, was hoping my stage win prediction might come true for once...
Don't clap, throw money! Team Velogames_were_robbed rack up another win. Powa!
Didn’t expect that from Sags, maybe he’s racking up the points ahead of the bumps later on..?
Glad, and sad, to see PhilGil up there... pulled hard but sadly he lack that final oooomph. Good effort chap 🙏👏👏💪
Didn’t expect that from Sags, maybe he’s racking up the points ahead of the bumps later on..?
No, the bumps are where he pulls out his real advantage over mere sprinters.