Morning all, well know the drill by now. Let's see what's in store.
The riders travel from Nîmes to Carcassonne in the 13th stage of the Tour de France. At 220 kilometres, the race is tailor-made for a successful breakaway. At least, that's what history tells us.
Carcasonne has never seen a Tour de France peloton sprint for the stage victory. Small groups, yes – for the last time in 2018, when Magnus Cort was far too fast for Ion Izagirre and Bauke Mollema. Those three were the survivors of a lead group of 29 riders.
Probably, stage 13 will be responsible for breach of historical contract, as the route is virtually flat. KOM contenders have only one chance to add points to their tally. The Côte du Pic-Saint Loup – 5.5 kilometres at 3.6% – is crested after 51.5 kilometres before the rest of the day traverses flat to undulating roads.
The Finish: the habitual route into town, the same finish as in 2018. It’s a flat finish on big boulevards alongside the Canal du Midi in Carcassonne. There’s a sweeping right hand bend under the flamme rouge and then a gentle left hand bend with 600m to go and the road rises a few metres to the line.
In recent years, Carcassonne featured mostly as a starting place. We have to go back to 2006 to find the last finish before 2018. Yaroslav Popovych won that day from the breakaway.
In 2014 and 2018 the bunch started in Carcassonne for a mountainous race to Bagnères-de-Luchon, and in 2016 the peloton faced a windswept race to Montpellier with an exciting finale. Green jersey Peter Sagan took the stage honours and yellow jersey Chris Froome put time into his GC rivals.
The first three riders on the line gain time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds.
Sprint day then.
The Contenders: sprint or breakaway? Carcassonne is a regular on the Tour route but there’s never been a bunch sprint for the win. This is partly because there’s been a hilly approach, a time trial or the propensity in the past for a rider to attack late and get a win. Today’s relevant factors include few teams being up for a sprint and the risk of crosswinds.
Breakaway picks include Magnus Cort (EF Education-Nippo) who has won here before, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Ivan Garcia Cortina (Movistar) and Oliver Naesen (Ag2r Citroën). DSM haven’t been very visible this Tour – they’re having a tough season so far – and Søren Kragh Andersen and Nils Eeekhoff can play the breakaway card if the team doesn’t have to back Cees Bol.
With the Pyrenees on the horizon, this is the last chance of a sprint before next Friday. So Mark Cavendish (Deceuninck-Quickstep) and a refreshed Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) are the obvious picks.
Bugger, missed the stage number off the title. It’s stage 13.
Thanks @Lunge
It's going to be another feast for the eyes today, it's a beautiful region. After my prediction of Sagan yesterday I'll not Jinx anyone today 🤦
Interesting what you say about there being few sprint teams left, meaning a breakaway stands a good chance. Cav may have to wait until Paris!
Talk of echelons today, big cross winds predicted at some stage. DQS will be all over it I suspect.
It's not really a medieval city don't you know!
...............said everyone yesterday.
You never know what's going to happen in this Tour. I must say, I didn't really realise what a nice guy Cav is till this tour.
t’s going to be another feast for the eyes today, it’s a beautiful region
Aye, had a lovely holiday in Caunes Minervois a few years back, I'll be watching to see it again, loved it.
Talk of echelons today, big cross winds predicted at some stage. DQS will be all over it I suspect.
I dunno - if a decent sized break goes then there's very few teams that will work to bring it back. DQS won't want to expend all their riders just to tow a break back, they're not going to get much help from anywhere else either due to other teams not having sprinters or other sprinters not having full teams.
Besides, most people will know that if it comes to a bunch sprint, Cav is far and away the likeliest pick.
I'm going for a series of splits forming "partial pelotons" rather than a defined breakaway <-> bunch scenario.
Super fast start to the day, 55kph for the first 20km.
Not much wind yet.
3 riders up the road. Little chance of a break being successful. Peloton has sat up. Perfect scenario for Cav - assuming echelons don't wreak havoc.
love the Cicadas in the background 🙂
It is lovely relaxing viewing at the moment.
Discussions with John Torode are interesting too (david millar did a podcast with him recently too)
It is lovely relaxing viewing at the moment.
You shouldn't have said that. BIG crash there.
Riders and bikes have gone a long way down that banking. 🙁
OUCHES
Some big names - Simon Yates, Tim DeClerq - that'll be a big loss for DQS - Soren Kragh Andersen...
Hope everyone is OK.
Uran as well according to commentary, though doesn't seem so... G again!
DECLERCQ Tim (Deceuninck - Quick Step)
YATES Simon (Team BikeExchange)
MAJKA Rafał (UAE-Team Emirates)
VAN BAARLE Dylan (INEOS Grenadiers)
POELS Wout (Bahrain - Victorious)
EEKHOFF Nils (Team DSM)
THOMAS Geraint (INEOS Grenadiers)
BOL Cees (Team DSM)
KÜNG Stefan (Groupama - FDJ)
KRAGH ANDERSEN Søren (Team DSM)
NIEUWENHUIS Joris (Team DSM)
BOUHANNI Nacer (Team Arkéa Samsic)
DE LA PARTE Víctor (Team TotalEnergies)
DURBRIDGE Luke (Team BikeExchange)
LAPORTE Christophe (Cofidis, Solutions Crédits)
JUUL-JENSEN Christopher (Team BikeExchange)
BARBERO Carlos (Team Qhubeka NextHash)
THEUNS Edward (Trek - Segafredo)
KLUGE Roger (Lotto Soudal)
Lotto Soudal down to 4 Kluge has abandoned
Simon Yates also abandoned 🙁
Yates Abandons
I am not taking the blame for that lot!
ASO said to be suing the pole that took down Tim the tractor there........
Simon Yates also abandoned 🙁
Another one of my fantasy team gone - I had high hopes for him in the Pyrenees.
That's a real shame, hope he recovers quickly - maybe there's hope for him at the Vuelta.
Hopefully Yates' abandonment is precautionary with the Olympics coming up soon.
Lucas Hamilton has stepped off
Home just in time for it getting exciting. Looks like it will be a sprint but will it be 34?
Ooh. So excited. Gooowan
This is getting messy - it's obvious that there's no sprint train able to exert any overall control or authority over this.
It's also fast enough that no one can really chip off the front so it's going to get frantic!
The "neutral zone" has been extended from 3km to 4.5km for today - maybe as a result of those massive crashes on Stage 3 - so the GC teams might just back out of it once they get to the 4.5km to go mark.
A very messy 5km to go.
Game time!
Little bit of bumping shoulders already...
Come on Cav!!
Cav taking no shit!
Busy "watching" it here and on the guardian....
Not ideal
!!!!
LEGEND!!!
Tell me FFS
Phew! Chaos!
Incredible. Such a hard technical sprint. Dusty in here all of a sudden...
Yes!!!
YEeeesssdddd
Just Wow!!!! when he goes!!!!
Just Paris now.
Make it #35, in the green jersey, on the Champs Elysees, led out by the World Champion...
YESSS!
I need to calm down.
Fan-bloody-tastic! 🙂
