I'm knackered after watching that 🙂
I think it's Evans to beat now. If Andy Stiffneck has it in the tank to go again tomorrow then fairplay, that was a brilliant ride today, but how much has it taken out. Tommy V at the end - what a warrior - even Jens will be hiding from him tonight, and Jens hides from no-one.
How far back is Cav and what's the time limit? AS giving it big beans and coming in 2 mins ahead won't have helped there.......
id love to see conta ride to the win tomorow on the alpe...
steak tonight then...?
Eh? Have you been watching today's stage (or indeed the rest of the TdF)? Where exactly do you get that idea from?
Where do I get that - intelligence! 😀 Are you a bit daft?
Just watch - AS is now blown and will be following wheels tomorrow. FS might go for it tomorrow but either of them will need to be 2min 15 plus ahead at the beginning of the ITT to have a chance of yellow in Paris. Neither of them will have that by the end of tomorrow.
The best bit is that both AS and FS know this and will have to try something & with Contador out of it Evans is going to have a hard time limiting on his own. Slight irony for the wheel sucker!
Will Cav make it in in time, that's now the pressing q - the cut off time is 33min 17sec and he's only half way up the Galibier.
Best stage i have watched in years.
A nice way to chill and use 2hrs of my hols
because cadel is by far and away the best tt'er excluding contador...
id love to see conta ride to the win tomorow on the alpe...
Yes, but there is another mountain to go, on which Evans could lose more time to Schleck. Assume they come in together (probably best case for Evans on the Alpe), that still means he has to beat Schleck by a massive 58 seconds in the TT.
I'd say that is far from cut and dried. Evans has given himself a chance today, but it is a long way from sewn up.
Chapeau to Schleck. Turns out he really does know how to attack... what a ride!
Also chapeau to Evans and Voeckler, they were the only ones of the chasing group who really wanted it.
(I'd love to see Evans win it)
is Cav on his own? they will bend the rules and won't eliminate half the field but if he is solo then the rules will stand.
Chapeau Thomas !!!
Wow.
Is Rojas ahead of Cav? They were in the grupetto together, and with Gilbert, earlier.
Could we have all the green jersey contenders eliminated? that would be mental.
Great stage. I'm ****ed.
Great afternoon of viewing
Superb ride from Schleck...unfortunately reminded me of Landis, which is a real shame.
Chapeau to Voeckler and Evans too, no-one should be allowed to call Evans a wheelsucker again after today!
couldn't watch as my digibox reception was going to pot 😡 digital is a joke 😡
if they bend the rules he forfeits his points IIRCis Cav on his own? they will bend the rules and won't eliminate half the field but if he is solo then the rules will stand.
Just watch - AS is now blown and will be following wheels tomorrow. FS might go for it tomorrow but either of them will need to be 2min 15 plus ahead at the beginning of the ITT to have a chance of yellow in Paris. Neither of them will have that by the end of tomorrow
AS is just about as blown as CE - or did you not notice Cadel trying quite hard to the top of the final climb and not having much left? Meanwhile if Frank does go for it tomorrow, he only needs to take the same as Andy did today and he'll be in the box seat. Not really sure where you get 2:15 from either - you do realise that in 2009 (last year Evans appears not to have tried in final TT) Cadel only took 30s out of Andy in the final TT?
Meanwhile Tommy is still far from out of it. If he's in yellow on Saturday afternoon, who knows what he can pull out.
As I said, very, very far from "sewn up" (well about as sewn up as it was for Fignon in 1989, though I suspect you might not have been following the TdF back then).
Apparently Rojas is in now
59. ROJAS Jose Joaquin 88 MOVISTAR TEAM 6h 39' 13" + 31' 17"
Also note that only 1 HTC rider has come in.
Cav outside the time limit 🙁
Only 78 riders inside it
Care to have a small side bet then "racer"?
And why would I have not been follow in the '89 tour - I was a 2nd cat roadie then so it would have been a bit weird no to no?
edit that - that was my last year as a junior but racing E,1,2
You calculated the time limit? What is it?
huh, Cav out? if 100 riders are outside they'll waive it
Cav outside the time limitOnly 78 riders inside it
Which will certainly save him - they're not going to eliminate over half the field. Assuming that is he's in with a big group and not way back on his own?
You calculated the time limit? What is it?
😆
Care to have a small side bet them by "racer"?
Don't know who that is, but if you reckon Evans has got it "sewn up" I presume you're offering pretty generous odds - say I give you £5 if Evans wins, you give me £100 if he doesn't?
Where can you get the news on what's happening? can't find anything...
Linky?
10-1 on is a bit strong. I'd go with 4-1.
oh, you edited to 20-1 on. Doesn't sound like you have too many balls Mr "racer"! I think 4-1 on Evans vs entire field is pretty good odds!
HTC will only have one rider left 😀 if this stands
time limit was about 33 minutes
Groupetto had about 80 riders and finished about 2 minutes outside
info was from twitter - had tweetdeck open with some open searches - so when someone would mention groupetto or cavendish (etc) then those tweets would appear. very useful tool for getting information fast
10-1 on is a bit strong. I'd go with 4-1.
So even you don't think it's all that sewn up?
96. CAVENDISH Mark 171 HTC - HIGHROAD 6h 43' 36" + 35' 40"
He's finished in a group of ~90 riders. Think he's safe.
You show me a horse that has ever been at odds with the bookies of 4-1 on and I'll show you a sewn up race!
the inner ring is pretty good too http://twitter.com/inrng
Groupetto safe, Cavendish deducted 20 points. Still in green but with a lead of 15 now
the letour web site is now listing down to 168 @ +35,40 with Cav
Is that him out then?
Cav loses 20pts, but not eliminated.
Group of 87 riders in the 'autobus' got in at 35mins 40secs, technically outside the limit but I can't imagine them being thrown out, not with Cav, Gilbert, Cancellara, Hushovd, Farrar included.
Rojas got in at 31mins 17secs so was inside the limit so hasn't been deducted points.
Gilbert should have dropped points to though.
Cav still in the race but loses 20 points. Still in green by 15pts from Rojas
1. CAVENDISH Mark 300 pts
2. ROJAS Jose Joaquin 285 pts
oh, you edited to 20-1 on.
I thought 10-1 on was probably a bit soft for "sewn up"
The question is, how good are you for your 4-1 on as somebody I don't know on a forum? Just wondering what my risk is if I take you on that and lay it off at 6/5?
what is/was the time limit then ? - site I found suggested 13% of winner's time (mountain stage, 32 km/h) which would be 13% of 368 mins = 47-48min
both pay your stakes into my paypal account (gift) and I will act as bankerThe question is, how good are you for your 4-1 on as somebody I don't know on a forum? Just wondering what my risk is if I take you on that and lay it off at 6/5?
Good - happy to pay up first and let you pay me back (with my winnings!).
IF - you can find me that 4-1 ON horse you tried to belittle me with the odds for earlier.
Twitter reckons AS has beaten TV in 11 of the 12 time trails they've both ridden.
So who all loses 20 points?
So who all loses 20 points?
My understanding of it is that everyone in the grupetto loses 20 pts the only real contender in the points that finished within the time limit was Rojas so he closes the gap between 1st and 2nd.
Fignon in '89 was an amazing end of tour. I don't believe they've ever had a TT on the last day since?
IF...
You're really not quite as confident as you try to make out?
Why don't you just go and put your money on at the bookies - you can even get 7/5 when I looked a bit harder. If you reckon the real odds are 1/4 then you're onto a winner. Of course if you want to give* me your money I suppose you might stand a chance of also winning an online argument, and that's priceless. I'm happy to nominate Stoner (somebody I think most here would trust, and I know where he lives!) as the escrow banker in that case if he'll take on something so silly.
* I'll lay it off with the bookies - not into gambling, but I like a nice arbitrage.
Brilliant race today and it was good to watch it on my day off, I hope AS to win the tour, just need another good day tomorrow like today, excellent ride from great man AS.
Just watched the highlights and what a great race. I cannot believe the pain threshold these guys must have.
Even the Joe McElderry song at the end couldn't spoil it!
Edit: Just stuck a fiver on CE @ 7/5 mainly due to the fact that he looked less like death than the other contendors 8)
Tommy is going to have difficulty getting out of bed tomorrow morning. He looked gone when he arrived. And at the interview he was coughing.
I really want him to, somehow, win.
Just watched the highlights and what a great race. I cannot believe the pain threshold these guys must have.
"It never gets easier, you just go faster."
Greg LeMond
The reality is remember the first time you really went for it on a climb, i doubt it hurts pros more, you just go faster and learn pain is good so don't ease off.
if Andy Schleck can get the Yellow jersey on his back for the time trial it maybe all the motivation he needs to hold off Cadel. Get some of that magic that's kept Tommy in the race. It's still all to play for, Tommy looked the weakest of the contenders and Frank looked the strongest. Andy will be worn out but Cadel must be pretty tired after dragging everyone else up the Galibier. A Truely thrilling race this year.
Just watched the highlights. ASs attack was amazing, but the fading at the end may cost him. The TT isn't that long or flat this year which will be in his favour. Tommy is the one if a few Frenchman I have ever warmed to and I'd love him to win. I thought that Evans was as impressive as AS today, he put his all into closing the gap with little help. Hard to predict the top podium come Sunday but if I was pushed I'd say: Evans, AS, Tommy.
A Truely thrilling race this year
+1. Today was one of the best stages I've seen, this years race has been fantastic all round, wide open right from the start. Great choice not to have a prologue.
I SO want Voeckler to keep yellow but it's not going to happen. He looked absolutely wrecked today, could see he had nothing there when he went to the front alongside Evans on the final climb. And he's not got a hope against Evans in the TT.
Frank's turn to go for it tomorrow I reckon - one of them wll have to attack again to get the time gaps over Evans in the TT. Contador is (thankfully) out of contention now.
Shame about Cav losing 20 pts but he was pretty philosophical about it at the end, really hope he can hang on to green in Paris.
i wonder if Voeckler will actually try and win the tour next year? I do think he doesn't believe what he is doing.
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Well, I've taken your advice and cut out the middleman and put my hard earned on CE direct as you didn't seem too keen. Funny really as I've never been that keen on him but will now have to cheer him to the end - gives an edge to the watching experience. The romantic in me would love to see TV win instead but don't think he stands much chance. Another heroic day from AS to give himself a chance would be awesome so I'd not be too fussed about loosing my cash.
Great photo - That's sure to be used by Trek and the other sponsors.
Today was one of the best stages I've seen, this years race has been fantastic all round, wide open right from the start. Great choice not to have a prologue.
+2
Voeckler is one tough guy
i loved the bit with Merckx shouting at Schleck
why/what was merckx shouting ?
Merckx was getting very excited about someone taking on the TdF the old skool way like he used to and was shouting encouragement. He also got quite abusive to the random fancy dressed chickens and budgie smuggler wearing dicks that seem to think it's cool to run alongside the lead rider which was amusing to watch.
[i]He also got quite abusive to the random fancy dressed chickens and budgie smuggler wearing dicks[/i]
Christian Prudhomme was also in the car; it was him shouting at numpties...
ahh.
Why do they do that? I have to say I'd struggle to ride with that lot around me as well as people standing in front of me until a spit second before getting run over to get a photo and the general exhaust fumes of all those cars and bikes around them. But then again I'd be 2hrs back down the road so wouldn't be a problem!
as you didn't seem too keen
Not that desperate to take money off you* - if I was as sure as you seem I'd take a punt at the bookies, though personally I reckon they've got the odds about right (tempted by TV at 16/1, but I think that's my heart not my head) - you've got me looking at arbs now though...
I just hope Frank doesn't win it - any of the other 3 deserve it the way they've ridden (I suppose Frank did attack the other day, but he's spent a lot of time sitting on wheels and it was hardly in the class of his brother). The first time I could honestly say that about either AS or CE.
not into gambling
Not entirely true - I made a few hundred on the last Olympics when I was sure the bookies were being too pessimistic about the number of medals we'd get.
* by that I mean that I'd be up on the deal, not necessarily that you're wrong
as it was for Fignon in 1989, though I suspect you might not have been following the TdF back then
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I missed the whole damn thing, even the highlights 🙁
ITV Player (and a proxy if you're still in Germany)?
Yeah that's all covered but I was out all afternoon, missed the highlights show and they don't put it on the player til after I've gone to bed...