Le Tour 2017 - Spec...
 

[Closed] Le Tour 2017 - Speculation, predictions, spoilers, etc.

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definitely no tom on the roster


 
Posted : 16/06/2017 8:47 am
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What is it about Spilak and the Tour de Swisse?


 
Posted : 16/06/2017 3:28 pm
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It'd be nice to see AC get something from the race, as it's possibly his last TDF. The stars will need to align though, but hopefully Froome won't have found much more form come July. Otherwise, I think it's game over for AC and everyone else.


 
Posted : 17/06/2017 6:37 am
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Tweet from Taylor Phinney racing at the Tour du Suisse raises an eyebrow...

Feeling like I am racing against cyborgs, very proud of my Earthlings @JoeDombro @rusty_woods #Huge @ryanmullen9 @PaddyBevin @sepvanmarcke


 
Posted : 17/06/2017 8:18 pm
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Well those are his team mates, you could never accuse Cannondale-Drapac of overperforming could you?


 
Posted : 18/06/2017 5:27 am
 beej
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CaDra have been OK recently - they've often got someone top 5 and have had a few stage wins as well. I think the Moneyball style recruitment policy is starting to come good.

Wildcard prediction - Landa, after Froome blows up/crashes out.


 
Posted : 18/06/2017 7:10 am
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I can't help but ponder whether Quintana might be the beneficiary of all the fireworks at the Dauphine. Last year's Tour he appeared lacklustre and boring, only to destroy all comers at the Vuelta. One could call his Giro lacklustre and boring... perhaps he learned last year he needs a 3-week block 5/6 weeks out to hit his peak?


 
Posted : 18/06/2017 7:42 am
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only to destroy all comers at the Vuelta

He didn't though. He got lucky and just about made the break that Contador forced on that freaky stage. If it wasn't for the time lost on that one stage Froome would have won that Vuelta.

CaDra have been OK recently

A queen stage win for Rolland at the Route du Sud too.


 
Posted : 18/06/2017 7:59 am
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 beej
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Many thanks Paton, for those that are unsure about the link it's a folder containing race roadbooks, including the TdF 2017.


 
Posted : 19/06/2017 6:42 am
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Stage 3... I can either ride to the finish or go for a proper ride then sit in a friterie with a beer and some fried stuff and watch the caravan and race go past.


 
Posted : 19/06/2017 2:02 pm
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option 2


 
Posted : 19/06/2017 2:06 pm
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Option deux 🙂


 
Posted : 19/06/2017 2:07 pm
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We have a winner then! Plus it beats a 30km back home in the heat in rush-hour re-opened roads.


 
Posted : 19/06/2017 3:02 pm
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Dropper posts in the world tour.

To avoid the Ventoux Froome on a kids bike debacle Mavic neutral service bikes (which I don't think they expected anyone would ever actually use) will be fitted with KS dropper posts so they can be quickly adjusted to suit.

They'll also be using common sense and having specific bikes set up to suit the GC leaders, and also not fitted with the Mavic pedals that no one uses.

(Info courtesy of velonews podcast).


 
Posted : 21/06/2017 8:19 am
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Posted : 21/06/2017 6:57 pm
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Millar on Porte and that day at the Dauphine...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/author/robert-millar-blog-the-making-of-richie-porte/


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 10:24 am
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Problem with that analysis that is it fails to explain why on that final day in the Dauphine Porte couldn't hold on going up the penultimate climb and then failed to stay with Kwiatkowski on the descent.

Yes the BMC team will be stronger at the TDF, but so will pretty much all the others.


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 10:45 am
 nbt
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Fantasy league is up and running - http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/stw-fantasy-tdf-2017


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 10:58 am
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Problem with that analysis that is it fails to explain why on that final day in the Dauphine Porte couldn't hold on going up the penultimate climb and then failed to stay with Kwiatkowski on the descent.

Not seen the stage in full, but on the penultimate climb didn't Porte have quite a bit of defending to do as they all took turns attacking him?

As for the descent, Kwiatkowski is one of the best, and he'd have been going full gas as he wasn't worried about getting up the final climb. Maybe Porte figured it wasn't worth the effort and he'd try and recover a bit on the descent and save something for the transition and final climb, if he'd held on then Kwiatkowski would just have got off the gas and sat on Porte's wheel.

Must watch that stage sometime as it sounds a good one.

And all that still doesn't tell you if he can manage 3 weeks without a bad day or a tactical blunder.


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 11:39 am
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Sky’s Tour de France lineup announced:
Froome, Henao, Kiryienka, Knees, Kwiatkowski, Landa, Nieve, Rowe, Thomas.

Very similar to last year, (ctrl-c)Kwiatkowski(ctrl-v) in for Poels, Knees for Stannard.


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 12:45 pm
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[s]Sky Tour team announced...

Chris Froome (Gbr), Geraint Thomas (Gbr), Mikel Landa (Spa), Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol), Christian Knees (Ger), Vasil Kiryienka (Blr), Mikel Nieve (Spa), Sergio Henao (Col), Luke Rowe (Gbr) and Christian Knees (Ger).

No place for Poels, Kennaugh or Stannard.[/s]

Beaten to it by 34 seconds 🙂


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 12:45 pm
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Nicely balanced team that, Knees is more of a bodyguard type domestique than the flat road hardman that is Stannard, Kwiatkowski a lesser climber but perhaps more well rounded than Poels. Still a lot of very good climbers in there.


 
Posted : 22/06/2017 12:54 pm
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A Tour riders to watch from cyclingnews...

In other news, Froome says never offered triamcinolone in [url= https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/jun/23/chris-froome-never-offered-triamcinolone-team-sky ]Guardian interview.[/url] Good that's all sorted!

Also good to see Cummings winning the national TT ([url= http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/british-national-road-championships-2017/time-trial-men/results/ ]here[/url]). Bodes well for the Tour.

Also Ulrika Green Hedge announce team ([url= http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/orica-scotts-tour-de-france-squad-built-around-yates-and-chaves/ ]here[/url]) focused on GC with Yates and Chaves.

BMC announce team too...

BMC for the Tour de France: Damiano Caruso (Ita), Alessandro De Marchi (Ita), Stefan Küng (Swi), Amaël Moinard (Fra), Richie Porte (Aus), Nicolas Roche (Irl), Michael Schär (Swi), Greg Van Avermaet (Bel), Danilo Wyss (Swi).

Claim to be "all in" for Porte. Say no support for GvA but he's free to try for stage wins.


 
Posted : 23/06/2017 10:16 am
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Also good to see Cummings winning the national TT (here). Bodes well for the Tour.
It's all that zwifting he's been doing 😉


 
Posted : 23/06/2017 10:26 am
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Slightly surprised to see Landa in the Sky team.

Given his exertions at the Giro and the fact he's off at the end of the season - probably to Movistar - I wouldn't expect much of him


 
Posted : 23/06/2017 12:18 pm
 nbt
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[url= http://payload470.cargocollective.com/1/0/22833/11717197/TourDeGif_Froome.gi f" target="_blank">http://payload470.cargocollective.com/1/0/22833/11717197/TourDeGif_Froome.gi f"/> [/img][/url]

from last year, but very good. more in the clicky


 
Posted : 23/06/2017 2:20 pm
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Posted : 23/06/2017 5:22 pm
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Also good to see Cummings winning the national TT

Wow. Fantastic.


 
Posted : 23/06/2017 6:52 pm
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And the road race! Stripes on all his kit for the next year


 
Posted : 25/06/2017 5:55 pm
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On that form he'd be in my virtual Tour team. A good bet for a stage win or two.


 
Posted : 25/06/2017 6:31 pm
 gray
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I like Steve Cummings. Despite the fact that my wife said that she fancies him.


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 6:09 am
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Funny that he said after the TT that his Tour spot still depended on how he went in the road race. I think he's likely done enough now 🙂

Sounds like a great ride by Aru to win his national champs. Looks to be in excellent form for the Tour.


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 7:19 am
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Also from the nationals, but French this time. Look how pissed off Bouhanni is... no love lost there.

[img] [/img]

Bouhanni reckoned he'd been chopped (karma n'est pas?) but it's hard to argue.

Anyway, fireworks in the tour between these two no doubt


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 8:05 am
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didn't look like he had the pace to go past him anyway.


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 8:41 am
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didn't look like he had the pace to go past him anyway.

Does look that way from the overhead.

A Q&A with Porte over at cyclingtips...

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/06/richie-porte-tour-de-france-qa-im-just-excited-anything/


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 8:53 am
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Can't seem to find Cummings on Velogames Fantasy league thingy am I being special?


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 10:01 am
 nbt
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[quote=xc-steve ]Can't seem to find Cummings on Velogames Fantasy league thingy am I being special?

Teams are not yet finalised, Dimension data certainly haven;t announced their roster yet and as Cummings has been out for several months after a crash, he probably wasn't in the provisional listings. Velogames update the riders list as each squad is finalised and it can change up till the last minute. DD due to announce their list later this week I think

edit - checking the rider list page shows this. AG2R have TEN riders listed, DD only have four!

https://www.velogames.com/tour-de-france/2017/riders.php


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 10:04 am
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Nice little teaser video. God I'm excited!


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 10:40 am
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Would think that for DD the squad will largely depend on whether Cav is deemed well enough to start.


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 11:19 am
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In the same vein, Coquard has NOT been selected by Direct Energie after telling them he'd be leaving no matter what at the end of the season.


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 12:38 pm
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Anyway, fireworks in the tour between these two no doubt

For what? 10th place on some flat days? 😉


 
Posted : 26/06/2017 12:45 pm
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http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 5:16 am
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Dimension Data have declared, so Cummings has now appeared on the rider list.


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 7:53 am
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Does anyone need Steephill pirate feeds to watch the Tour? It's live from start to finish in the UK on ITV4, on Eurosport in UK and Europe and on major channel in US?


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 11:13 am
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It's live from start to finish in the UK on ITV4

ORLY?!

Now that'g going to eat into either riding or sleeping time watching the recordings in an evening.


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 11:16 am
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[url= http://road.cc/content/news/224985-trek-segafredos-andre-cardoso-out-tour-de-france-after-testing-positive-epo ]
Trek Segafredo rider tests positive for EPO....

[/url]

Of course, you were all thinking it, weren't you?


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 7:55 pm
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CaptainFlashheart - Member

Trek Segafredo rider tests positive for EPO....

Of course, you were all thinking it, weren't you?

POSTED 6 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

To quote someone off another forum...

"That's going to leave Froome and Team Sky with some difficult questions to answer. What, you didn't think somebody would ask Contador about doping did you?"


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 8:06 pm
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ORLY?!

Now that'g going to eat into either riding or sleeping time watching the recordings in an evening.

yup

http://www.itv.com/presscentre/ep1week27/tour-de-france-2017

This year marks the first time ITV4 has shown live daily coverage of every stage from start to finish, with a total of 110 hours of live cycling to be shown during the event, plus 23 hours of highlights.

A few of the doping zealot types I follow on twitter are cynical about the test

Spit in the soup (Retweeted UCI_media)

Must be an election coming up soon

The first World Tour rider caught since 12 March 2016
Pro cycling has been scandal-free for 463 days

Replying to @Spitinthesoup

Riders should know better. When an election is on the horizon, stay off the juice. Especially if not a big star on team.


 
Posted : 27/06/2017 8:41 pm
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I share Phil Gaimon's disbelief that riders still come out with the same old lines when they test positive...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/phil-gaimon-critical-of-cardosos-epo-positive-defence/


 
Posted : 28/06/2017 5:28 pm
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TBH though, Gaimon is pretty selective. I also don't think Danielson's panicked denials were any more believable given his history and the potential career-ending nature of the offence. The difference is that Gaimon knows Danielson really well so he's prepared to believe him more than some random former teammate despite the fact Danielson copped a 4-year ban.

There's only 4 ways to handle this

1, Admit it
2, Strenuously deny it across social media, press rleases etc (the Danielson method)
3, Issue mealy mouthed press release (the Cardoso method)
4, Total silence

The thing is there's little to choose between 2 and 3. Neither are believable if the B-sample comes out positive too. Nobody other than die hard fans believes Contador didn't cheat, it doesn't matter how many times he denies it.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 7:05 am
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Gaimon's written a fair bit about Danielson and how he was initially taken in by the denials as he thought he knew the guy so well.

The A and B sample thing, has a B sample ever contradicted the findings of an A sample? I don't recall I ever happening.

Also some cynical comments floating around about the coincidence of a low level World Tour rider testing positive on the eve of UCI elections after a long spell of no positive tests.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 7:18 am
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cynical comments like on this page you mean? 🙂

Anyway, the friterie closes just before the caravan arrives so my afternoon is sorted. Short ride from work, fried stuff and beer, another short ride along the course to a hairpin, then sit down until the race arrives.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 8:40 am
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Short ride from work, fried stuff and beer, another short ride along the course to a hairpin, then sit down until the race arrives.

Win!


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 8:43 am
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cynical comments like on this page you mean?

Ah yes 🙂 Not been following the thread properly the past couple of days!

First +ve in over 400 days meaning one of three things, less doping, smarter doping, or some sort of cover up. I'm more inclined to believe the second than the third (or the first!)

Tour preview of the day over at cyclingtips...

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/06/preview-guide-2017-tour-de-france/


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 8:50 am
 FAIL
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I decided to have a flutter on this years race. As you'd expect the odds were very short on Froome and Porte so I went for Quintana at 7/1 for the overall and Bardet at 25/1 (but i chickened out and went each way).

Hoping this years race is going to be as good a watch as the Giro.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 9:10 am
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Quintana at 7/1 is a decent bet. That said, he really is a shitty "racer". He won his giro with a dubious attack when the rest thought they were neutralised, won the vuelta off the back of what sounds like a Contador plan and nearly won this year's giro with another dubious attack. He does seem to lack that instinct for when to put the boot in unlike some of the others including his team mate Valverde.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 9:34 am
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That said, he really is a shitty "racer".

I'd agree with that. One trick pony (though he is admittedly quite good at that one trick.) Rubbish at riding on the flat, in wind, downhill or TT. And seems to lack tactical nouse.

He won his giro with a dubious attack when the rest thought they were neutralised,

People say he was a deserved winner and obviously the strongest, citing his win in that uphill TT. But his winning margin over Uran on GC was less than 3 mins. He put over 4 mins into Uran in the confusion of that Stelvio "neutralised" descent, much of that time on the actual descent. Take out that shambolic stage and Uran may well have won that Giro.

won the vuelta off the back of what sounds like a Contador plan and nearly won this year's giro with another dubious attack

He just about hung on to Contador's attack. I think he was the last man to bridge across. Final GC he was 1'23" ahead of Froome. Froome lost over two and a half minutes on Stage 15. Take out that shambolic stage and Froome would have won that Vuelta. Remember Contador being quite bitter too about the lack of help from Movistar later in the race when Chaves was up the road threatening his place on GC given how much he'd assisted Quintana.

You need luck on your side to win a GT, and you need to be an exceptional rider to put yourself in a position to take advantage of that luck, but he got very lucky when his rivals got very unlucky. Barring a similar incident I think he'll make the podium but is an unlikely winner.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 9:52 am
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Hah... Froome has to comment on a Trek rider's doping. You know the question was something like "Why should fans trust YOU when riders like Cardoso are still doping"

He acknowledged however that the sport still had to win people’s trust given this week’s revelation that Andre Cardoso, who was due to play a key supporting role to Trek Segafredo’s Alberto Contador, had been provisionally suspended after testing positive for EPO.

“It's difficult, we just had a positive yesterday, a positive test, which is a really, really big disappointment to see in this day and age,” Froome said.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 12:23 pm
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Quintana at 7/1 is a decent bet. That said, he really is a shitty "racer". He won his giro with a dubious attack when the rest thought they were neutralised, won the vuelta off the back of what sounds like a Contador plan and nearly won this year's giro with another dubious attack. He does seem to lack that instinct for when to put the boot in unlike some of the others including his team mate Valverde.

That's a bit harsh, he very nearly cracked Froome on the alpe, froome was saved by a team mate that day.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 12:35 pm
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I agree with comments about Quintana as a racer. Never shown more clearly when Froome attacked over the top of a climb in last years race (can't remember the stage). Rather than instinctively go after him he looked around for teammates (esp. Valverde) to show him what to do.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 12:44 pm
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Rubbish at riding on the flat, in wind, downhill or TT. And seems to lack tactical nouse.

I guess you've beaten him a fair number of times then 🙂


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 12:46 pm
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That's a bit harsh, he very nearly cracked Froome on the alpe, froome was saved by a team mate that day.

Nobody would deny he's good going uphill but given recent trends, he's not going to get a TdF where there's enough climbing to make up for his mediocre (for a GT winner) skills in other areas.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 1:23 pm
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I guess you've beaten him a fair number of times then

🙂 I'm obviously commenting in the context of World Tour riders and not your average club racer! Though I'm sure I could take him in the town line sprint 😉

he's not going to get a TdF where there's enough climbing to make up for his mediocre (for a GT winner) skills in other areas

He needs steep irregular climbs too. I don't think he can pull out enough of a gap on longer Alpine ones.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 1:24 pm
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I agree with comments about Quintana as a racer. Never shown more clearly when Froome attacked over the top of a climb in last years race (can't remember the stage). Rather than instinctively go after him he looked around for teammates (esp. Valverde) to show him what to do.

this x1000. Completely lacks any natural racing instinct or aggression and that was a really good example- he rolled to one side and looked back to see who would do the chasing (hoping for Uncle Valverde) rather than give chase. He starts races sitting on Froome's wheel before Froome has become race leader, so he's lost the psychological battle from the gun.

That's a bit harsh, he very nearly cracked Froome on the alpe, froome was saved by a team mate that day.

yes, Quintana specialises in doing too little too late; a half-arsed attack in the last half of the last climb is known as the "Dan Martin" move 🙂

I guess you've beaten him a fair number of times then

I assume he's comparing NQ to his peers.

I dislike Valverde to the extent he's like my pantomime villain and I root for "not valverde" but he is everything that Quintana isn't, Quintana needs to start learning from him rather than relying on him (especially as Valverde only 'rides for someone else' when it fits with riding for himself). I reckon Valverde fancies his chances this year more than ever and is waiting for Quintana to crack before he assumes team leader spot.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 1:33 pm
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yes, Quintana specialises in doing too little too late; a half-arsed attack in the last half of the last climb is known as the "Dan Martin" move

cos riding away from team sky is just so so easy. 🙄


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:16 pm
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cos riding away from team sky is just so so easy.

That's not the point.
The point is that NQ needs to do exactly that if he wants to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere.
I also think after the level of sportsmanship he showed at the Giro he better hope he has no problems or Sky/Orica/Sunweb are going to be queuing up to pull on the front and put time into him.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:20 pm
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cos riding away from team sky is just so so easy.

I agree the Sky train has been brilliant at suffocating the race and limiting attacks, but if you're watching the same races I am it's down to the final GC contenders in the last few km's with all the trains and domestiques burned, Quintana (who's been shadowing Froome whilst he's being towed by his train) then stays on Froome's wheel before finally attacking too late to take any meaningful time.

I genuinely don't think Quintana thinks he can beat Froome at the Tour; it seems he needs steep, high altitude and multi-gradient climbs of the Giro or Vuelta to be able to make a series of attacks before one sticks, with froome unable to 'time trial' back.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:27 pm
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I dislike Valverde to the extent he's like my pantomime villain and I root for "not valverde" but he is everything that Quintana isn't,

Much the same here. He's pretty much ruined Flèche Wallonne and Liège–Bastogne–Liège for me 🙁 Sits at the top of the tree of unrepentant dopers. Unfortunately so brilliant at so many things he even makes Sagan look a bit one dimensional.

cos riding away from team sky is just so so easy.

Movistar as a team are just as strong as Sky, if not stronger. And they help Quintana immensely as he needs an awful lot of protection through most of every stage. He couldn't have had better support at the Giro either with his team setting an infernal pace whenever the road went up and usually isolating Dumoulin ready for Quintana to deliver a KO... which he couldn't.

I genuinely don't think Quintana thinks he can beat Froome at the Tour

Yes, he might point to the Vuelta last year, but both Quintana and Froome know what happened there and on the big climbs and TT I don't think Froome would have seen anything from Quintana that would worry him. Much the same if he was watching this year's Giro.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:30 pm
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I agree the Sky train has been brilliant at suffocating the race and limiting attacks, but if you're watching the same races I am it's down to the final GC contenders in the last few km's with all the trains and domestiques burned, Quintana (who's been shadowing Froome whilst he's being towed by his train) then stays on Froome's wheel before finally attacking too late to take any meaningful time.

he took 1.20 out of froome on the alpe which is no mean feat, and as i said earlier if it wasn't for richie porte he may well have cracked altogether cos he looked decidedly wobbly half way up.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:36 pm
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Movistar as a team are just as strong as Sky, if not stronger. And they help Quintana immensely as he needs an awful lot of protection through most of every stage. He couldn't have had better support at the Giro either with his team setting an infernal pace whenever the road went up and usually isolating Dumoulin ready for Quintana to deliver a KO... which he couldn't.

for Quitana to crack sky early on a mountain stage he will probably crack his own team too, assuming he has the legs, though it's not impossible to solo from there, Andy Schleck managed it afterall, it's not certain to work or get any more time than a concerted attack towards the end.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:42 pm
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he took 1.20 out of froome on the alpe which is no mean feat, and as i said earlier if it wasn't for richie porte he may well have cracked altogether cos he looked decidedly wobbly half way up.

The key here is that he didn't crack altogether and NQ failed to put enough time into him to make up for the time he'd already lost. Which is basically what we're all saying. Nobody is saying he's not one of the best pure climbers of his generation but, like Andy Schleck (another excellent pure climber), he has massive downsides that limit his ability to deliver a grand tour without taking advantage of some situation or other.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:45 pm
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Andy Schleck managed it afterall, it's not certain to work or get any more time than a concerted attack towards the end.

Was how Pantani beat Ulrich to win his Tour.

Thing is there's been tiny climbers at the Tour for decades and more often than not they've usually not been able to gain enough time on the climbs to offset their losses on the flats and time trial. Going back to 1970 the Tour, in 46 editions, has only been won by a climber 4 times (or 6 if you count Schleck and Sastre). And Quintana is not as good a racer as Van Impe or Pantani.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:45 pm
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Hah... double Andy Schleck post. What are the chances? As an aside, he's a nice chap and has a nice bike shop but he's put on the weight a bit unlike big bro Frank.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:46 pm
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The problem for NQ soloing is that he's tiny = absolute power is comparatively very low = unless its steep enough to severely negate wind resistance a solo isn't likely to happen.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:48 pm
Posts: 0
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The problem for NQ soloing is that he's tiny = absolute power is comparatively very low = unless its steep enough to severely negate wind resistance a solo isn't likely to happen.

Yep, he could go early on a climb midway but would lose it all to a half decent chase on the descents and the valleys, and probably would then lose more again on a final climb. He would need men up the road to help him. It'd be very risky for him.


 
Posted : 29/06/2017 2:51 pm
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