Bwaarp – I doubt that anyone seriously thinks that there will be a full scale invasion. However, it is still possible that the Argies may use cunning, guile and surprise to bring the UK to the negotiating table. The UK has lost the ability to think strategically – others have not. All the Argentineans need to do is to create a situation where the UK government is forced to participate in negotiations. A limited occupation of a a remote corner of the archipelago during the run-up to the Olympics will attract the sort of attention that the UK would be keen to avoid. As for 500lb JDAMs, and TLAMs….Using overwhelming force to kill such a small group would not endear the UK to the rest of the world. Attacking the South American mainland would make the UK an international pariah and rank us alongside N Korea, Burma, and Iran. In fact, it’s the sort of overreaction that should be avoided at all cost. We may win the battles, but still lose the war. As Sun Tsu said, “Tactics without strategy is the sound before defeat.”
Military top trumps means very little. History is full of examples of the weak defeating the strong. After all, the Taliban don’t look good on paper. Neither did the Vietcong, the Zulu, or the mujahideen.
We should avoid overconfidence and not underestimate a determined adversary.