Ukraine

It is quite well protected by AA, presumably infantry either side to the range of handheld AT and the whole thing is outside artillery range.

The AA still needs fuel and rations and to be able to move

Javelin is handheld, range 2km ish, covering 80km (both sides) to upto 2km out will soak up any infantry which they are already short of

The biggest concept that needs to be understood is that of “friction”, the Russians in the north are experiencing that

You do of course need to leave at least one person alive to write it and another to read it, I do hope he’s taken that into account.

I started to write that bit then took it out – I agree he could have a very limited audience.

The Ukrainians around Donetsk and Luhansk appear to have been left largely alone so this could be why, and they are generally regarded as the best defended areas.

Nope, lots of hard fighting there. Ukraine’s best troops are there but they losing kit

As horrible as the situation is, I think time and financial sanctions will do their work. The Russian population isn’t the same as it was in the 80s. They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.

This is the approach. It worked last time.

Cut them off, take their assets, let them rot from the inside. Change can only come from within Russia, otherwise Putin will just spin any intervention as evidence that the world hates Russia.

I would think no commander would want to leave their land forces so exposed and based on some of the commentary, the situation is most likely down to poor communications and logistics, poor reliability and simply vehicles getting stuck in mud. If you’re a conscript driving a soft-sided vehicle, then provided you’re not actually being shot at, having some shelter and getting fed, then being stuck in some mud doesn’t actually create any sense of urgency.

“The Russian population isn’t the same as it was in the 80s. They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.”

A handful have got used to the luxury trappings of the West, the rest have just watched their freedoms get eroded.

You could say the Russian population is exactly the same as it was in the 80’s, or at least it finds itself in the same position… Captive.

If anything Putin has more support from the public than later Soviet leaders did.

Sadly but understandably. Reminds me of a Soviet joke.

Brezhnev (to Kosygin):
– "We must close the borders, otherwise before too long it'll just be the two of us left behind"
Kosygin:
– "And who is the other person?" https://t.co/7K9dJm5JMy

— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) March 4, 2022

A handful have got used to the luxury trappings of the West, the rest have just watched their freedoms get eroded.

I’m not talking about diamond necklaces and Gucci handbags – I’m talking of the everyday stuff – H&M clothes, IKEA furniture, Maccies, iPhones – the stuff we take for granted as it’s just stuff to us.

And to say only a few taste these things, I’d guess pretty much every major city in Russia has the brands we are all used to lining their high streets. So millions used to these things, not just a few.

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

It might be bait.

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

It is sucking up RF resources – fuel and food – and having no effect.

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

Apparently:

a) it is not one long line – it is broken into segments and groups.
b) the breakdowns, tyres that keep splitting, lack of fuel etc are holding it back as effectively as attacking it could (and leading to cold, hungry, p*ss*d Russian soldiers)
c) they are striking at random in small groups, as and when they can.

I do think if you had resources, you at present would be going after the artillery and rocket launchers, not a dysfunctional supply convoy.

It might be bait.

I doubt it

It is similar to market garden except that had an exceptional amount of planning but the principles of a single road etc still stand, everything is in the wrong place and as soon as they stop moving they suck resources. Morale plummets with no information, food or fuel, they are degrading every day

I do think if you had resources, you at present would be going after the artillery and rocket launchers, not a dysfunctional supply convoy.

And the AA resources

Of which at least £100m has been abandoned

I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.

No, its more a case of cutting off power. Target the electrical generators and power being supplied drops. This affects communications, water plants, energy to homes,businesses and industry etc. The point there i would think is to weaken the Ukraine populations ability to wage a insurgency.

If they need to concentrate on getting heat, food for their families they cant fight back.

Were a nuclear accident to occur, this could affect the Russian fleet in Crimea. Plus troop movements and their own ability to wage war.

Despite the reports and claims made last night, there was in fact no damage to the reactors and no release or increase in radiation emissions.

The sensationalizing by our press isnt helping everyone’s mood. All it is doing is dramatically raising the fear factor.

“And to say only a few taste these things, I’d guess pretty much every major city in Russia has the brands we are all used to lining their high streets. So millions used to these things, not just a few.”

They always liked these things, that’s why a pair of Levis’ were worth a fortune on the black market back in the day.

Anyhow, I’m sure there’s plenty of Chinese factories gearing up to fill the demand. Russia will soon be awash with ‘grey imports’. All the brands manufacture their stuff in China anyhow, so there will probably be a few extra night shifts going on in the factories of Guangdong.

One for Nike… one for Russia.
One for Nike… one for Russia.

And so on…

Of which at least £100m has been abandoned

And I think this is where any hope I have is – that Russian losses lead to a lack of bombs, bullets and anything that can harm. I don’t know how deep the storehouses are, or how long they can keep throwing things at the front line.

Are you saying they’re actually doing more harm than good? I don’t believe that for a second…

The sensationalizing by our press isnt helping everyone’s mood. All it is doing is dramatically raising the fear factor.

China can’t keep up with their current manufacturing demands so increasing production to include Russian knockoffs seems unlikely.

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

. I don’t know how deep the storehouses are, or how long they can keep throwing things at the front line.

Probably not that deep due to corruption

The dates on the ration packs might get even older

Hi Guys – not sure if this is the best place to post but just been emailed by Peak UK (a paddlesport supplier we use). They are collecting sleeping bags for Ukranian refugees. Please only send clean washed bags.

Following the recent statement from the European Outdoor Group (see here), we are teaming up with DPD to send sleeping bags to refugees displaced from the fighting in Ukraine. We need your help.

We need clean, usable sleeping bags to send to Poland where they will be distributed through the Polish Outdoor Group and their colleagues to people arriving in countries bordering Ukraine.

You can either:

• Send them to us at:
  Peak UK Kayaking 
  Old Road
  Darley Dale
  DE4 2ER

• Drop them in with us in person at the above address. If the office is closed you can leave them in the click and collect box by the front doors, which will be left open.

The sensationalizing by our press isnt helping everyone’s mood.

How can you ‘sensationalise’ the shelling of a nuclear reactor? It’s difficult to imagine many things that would need sensationalising less. Just have a think about the potential consequences of that for a moment. Its utter and complete insanity! The unhinged behaviour of an absolute madman! No ‘sensationalism’ required at all. Even by the standards of the last couple of weeks, surely this act in itself made everyone sit up and think WTF are these lunatics actually doing?!!

Thats how l saw it dyna-ti.

I slept ok last night.

Putin didn’t want to blow the reactor up, he wanted to switch the lights off. It was the press that wanted to ‘blow it up’.

How can you ‘sensationalise’ the shelling of a nuclear reactor?

AFAIK, they didn’t actually shell the reactor. The fire was in a different building. It’s not at all clear what weapons they were using, so “shelling” may not be accurate. Above all, their objective wasn’t to destroy the reactor, it was to shut it down or capture it. Still not a good thing, but the panic about an imminent nuclear explosion was not based on any understanding of what a reactor is and why it cannot explode like a nuclear bomb.

I would imagine that there are all manner of critical systems to a nuclear reactor, the failure of any one of which could lead to some pretty disastrous consequences

So I’ll stick with my opinion that only an absolute lunatic would even contemplate the idea

Thats how l saw it dyna-ti.

I slept ok last night.

I wish I was a sanguine as you.

Sure, most likely the result would have been ‘only’ a Fukushima and not a Chernobyl in the event that something went wrong but the fact that the army feels comfortable throwing any kind of explosive at a nuclear power plant makes me feel worried and wondering what the next act of shear recklessness is going to be.

But, of course, that’s what Putin wants me to be worried about.

Are you saying they’re actually doing more harm than good? I don’t believe that for a second…

Well maybe not int he way you’re thinking RM

when the press reports these stories, people are then more open to not just suggestion, but to fabricating scenarios in their own mind. Look to this forum as a slice of how the every day member of the population thinks.

Todays, and within the context of the small fire at the nuclear plant, the talk was about Moscow launching a small nuclear weapon directing into the Ukrainian capital. This action would seem to me counter productive as to their aims.

So how does that play out as to our response ?, should we now preemptive strike the Russians, given its speculation thats exactly what they’re planning to do.

Honestly i cant say how many stories ive read about this is going to happen, and that could happen and this will happen only for it to not. And not just about this conflict, but just about every other we’ve been involved in. We’re looking for a path to peace in this. Not a feeding frenzy about what we must do to end the conflict.

Currently on national TV we have talk about assassinating Putin. Everyday members of the public are calling in and pretty much volunteering to do such a thing. You dont think Moscow watches the BBC or Sky news. How do they react . How do we expect them to react :?

I think the way public opinion is at the moment, the population is labouring under the false premise that a nuclear preemptive strike against Russia is justified.

I would imagine that there are all manner of critical systems to a nuclear reactor, the failure of any one of which could lead to some pretty disastrous consequences

If the reactor is shut down and the cooling systems are working (which requires an external source of electrical power), they aren’t as vulnerable as you might imagine. Not saying that attacking them is in any way good, but it is easy to overestimate how vulnerable they are.

Of course I was alarmed when I first heard the news about the reactor but the thought that he might be trying to capture reactors to turn them off had crossed my mind, after half an hour of following some news it seemed that it wasn’t the reactor that had been targeted but the press seemed keen to float that idea rather than consider what Putins actual objectives were.

The jury is out on how the well the press has performed. Over the last couple of days there have been quite a few things about the press that I’ve been uncomfortable with.

Not criticising others though, I don’t have children but I do wonder how differently I would feel of I did..

When designing nuclear reactors they account for natural hazards such as earthquake, floods, hurricanes etc. Obviously the design standards vary across the world and the local hazards vary per location but they are a hell of a lot more robust than we think they are.
As long as the control rooms/functions are not affected/sabotaged it can continue to function.

I would imagine that there are all manner of critical systems to a nuclear reactor, the failure of any one of which lots of these systems all at the same time could lead to some pretty disastrous consequences

Fukushima wasn’t anywhere near a Chernobyl scale even, and that was after the fifth biggest earthquake ever recorded and a tsunami had hit it. A few rockets are fairly minor in comparison.
Although the Japanese were able to get in to deal with it without being shot at…

If Putin is after the natural resources of Ukraine as has been suggested, then a destroyed nuclear reactor chucking out radiation is the last thing he needs.

It’s not at all clear what weapons they were using, so “shelling” may not be accurate.

Which is a very good point to make, from both aspects. Shelling, or bombing or launched surface to surface missiles aren’t always as accurate as we want, and they go astray and hit the wrong things. But again that would cause Russias ability to wage war in that area effectively null and void. And strategically having to remove all their troops from that area and reroute would set the planning back, and lay havoc to their overall plan.

Plus to keep with their story that its not to harm everyday Ukrainians, they would need to sort out evacuation of the population, and even if that wasnt an option, they would have to make great changes in order to do so. So any attack will be limited to power generation areas, and nuclear scientists arent soldiers, so when someone comes calling with a gun, all they can do is plead not to attack this area or that, but just stand back and let them get on with it.

Last nights press, tabloids of course, but also the bbc reported an increase in radiation out of that area and plant

Today the nuclear commission for Ukraine is stating that was not the case. So what we had is wild speculation being touted as truthful facts. That is not the reporting we need to feel that there is a light at the end of the tunnel

I think the way public opinion is at the moment, the population is labouring under the false premise that a nuclear preemptive strike against Russia is justified.

Of all the dangerous bullshit you fill this thread up with, that one really takes the biscuit. Just stop.

@dyna-ti I know, I have a family member that works for the DM, we disagree on a lot of things that her paper prints! But I know full well their priority is not accurate news, it’s revenue and sensationalist stories get people clicking on their links or tuning into channels in their droves.

I said way back when in the thread about those calling for a military response would soon change their mind when flag-draped caskets start arriving back home which is a cast-iron guarantee.

I have no idea what the solution to this is, I’ll keep my opinions firmly in my area of experience from a ground(ish)-view, no idea what the political or high level strategic solution is to this.

I have a feeling that any end other than Putin simply deciding to stop being a **** has a significant negative outcome/downside that will either be immediate, or take a bit of time to play out.

Question for the older forumites, how does the present situation compare to the Cuban missile crises?

Well as one of the older members of the forum I was still only 8 at the time. Given that and that we would have had limited news feeds I would guess it didn’t seem quite as frightening as the current crisis. Having said that our parents were fresh from WWWII (and their parents from WW1) so I would guess they found it pretty scary at the time.

+1

Surprised to find myself agreeing with dyna-ti but I do think things have gone a bit Brass Eye the last few days.

For the first 4 days the narrative was fast slipping away from Putin but over the past 3 days, he has wrestled back control of that narrative and we are looking where he wants us to look.

Defo not a majority, but I have seen some loons espouse that opinion for sure. But then they’re always the same sort calling for military action, also the sort who share those honking ‘now is the time to kneel’ pictures on or around Remembrance.

Of all the dangerous bullshit you fill this thread up with, that one really takes the biscuit. Just stop.