Ukraine

“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“

Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.

I don’t think there is anything he will do in Ukraine which will lead to NATO involvement. If he takes one step over the border into a NATO country though then it will escalate.

I think Putin and Lavrov now totally believe their own BulSh*t…

Lavrov was pretty terrifying on the channel 4 news interview last night. He reminded me of a far more sinister version of…

He just came out with a load of whataboutery in reply to any question and berated Cathy Newman on her journalistic standards for having the audacity to question him

“Any military actions are unfortunately connected to human loss.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responds to @cathynewman after she asked him about the death of a 10-year-old girl, who was shot by Russian troops as she attempted to flee Ukraine.https://t.co/HbFVaoa4DE

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) March 3, 2022

Anyone care to guess what ‘our’ line in the sand is?

I don’t think there is one (at least not publicly). The last time there was a line in the sand was 03 September 1939.

IMO we shouldn’t go in with boots on the ground and planes in the air. That will only lead to one outcome.

As horrible as the situation is, I think time and financial sanctions will do their work. The Russian population isn’t the same as it was in the 80s. They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.

Poland is the line for NATO.
No fly zone is so hard to implement politically but if they keep shelling people who knows.
Unconfirmed reports that 4 Chinese students got killed yesterday by shelling but unconfirmed.

They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.

Only a few have experienced the luxury trapping of the west, but Putin has been blaming the west for that while he and his cronies raped the country of all the financial benefits of post communist financial freedom. They have been living brexit on steroids.

“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“

Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.

That’s a great quote

Anyone care to guess what ‘our’ line in the sand is?

It’s an interesting one fo’shure. I can imagine that quite a few intelligence agencies around he world are reassessing Russia’s military capability right now, in the light of what’s happened. I think the threat levels have probably gone up because of that.

I don’t think there is anything he will do in Ukraine which will lead to NATO involvement. If he takes one step over the border into a NATO country though then it will escalate.

The other day, a couple of Russian jets crossed into Swedish airspace. This was obviously not an accident, Russia is trying to provoke other countries. Putin knows that Russians do not see Ukraine as an enemy, so he has to try to deny that Russia is in a war with Ukraine. What he seems to be trying to do is provoke NATO into getting involved because Russians are very distrusting of NATO. If NATO responds to his provocations, he will then have a popular war against an enemy, not an unpopular war against a friend. This is why any suggestion that NATO should declare no-fly zones or respond to human rights violations is a huge mistake – it’s exactly what Putin wants.

IMO we shouldn’t go in with boots on the ground and planes in the air. That will only lead to one outcome.

To be fair, there’s been a risk of a proxy war with Russia in various conflict zones over the past years, it’s just that this is far closer to it than anything else since Russia is the direct aggressor rather than “Russian-backed separatists” or whatever other politically correct term you want to apply to them.

“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“

Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.

I thought it was a Rage Against the Machine line ha ha.

@pk13 looking at some of the videos of the aftermath of various strikes, there’s no doubt there will be many foreign nationals among the casualties.

Not just you, I’ve decided to drink beer, switch off the news and ride a bike this weekend

Very much this for the foreseeable future!

I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.

I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.

Yes there is that – part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he’s decided that he’s going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.

The more I’ve been reading about the flawed ‘Blitzkrieg’ invasion I can’t hep but feel that either the Intelligence on which it was based was flawed, or that it was designed to fail, perhaps not catastrophically but enough to turn it in to an embarassment. I can’t help think that maybe there’s an inside job going on to undermine confidence in Vlad and replace him with someone else.

It’s disturbing, isn’t it? He needs to reinforce a narrative of NATO aggression to prop himself up at home and abroad.

I’m more inclined to think incompetence in his armed forces than an actual desire to lay waste to thousands of square miles of eastern Europe, including a fair chunk of Western Russia, if the wind direction is right. But he’s a mad ****, so who knows?

Yes there is that – part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he’s decided that he’s going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.

There was someone interviewed on Five Live yesterday who was clearly very knowledgable about Putin and Russia who advanced just that theory.

incompetence in his armed forces

I’m not so sure.

The fact that there is a huge convoy full of soldiers and weapons suggests to me that once ‘enough’ Kyiv-ians have fled, the Russians use the resources in the convoy to do an Aleppo / Mauripol and lay siege to Kyiv.

They’d avoid street-to-street combat, lay waste to an important strategic city and destabilise Ukraine for years to come.

The Russians don’t play by the same rules as the West, so I’m less inclined to see what has happened so far as incompetence, but more of a slow, drawn out plan.

Putin just wants to turn Ukraine red on the map, he doesn’t care what state it is in.

As for Russians enjoying the trappings of the West, I can only recommend watching any of Bald and Bankrupt’s YouTube films where he regularly finds Russians living a genuine subsistence existence and still exhalting Putin.

Lavrov was pretty terrifying on the channel 4 news interview last night. He reminded me of a far more sinister version of…

The Minister for Denying There Are Tanks In The Background was only not sinister because, as it turned out, that whole Saddam-has-Weapons-Of-Mass-Destruction thing was a load of shite.

Putin, does have weapons of mass destruction.

And is looking increasingly Mad Jack McMad, winner of last years Mister Mad competition.

I think he wants to be the fifth face.

I think he wants to be the fifth face.

I think he wants to be the only face😉

On Putin being unwell I know he likes posturing of the big table rubbish but I wonder if he has a suppressed immune syndrome linked illness. or has just gone full on Howard Hughes.

Amazon are still traiding in Russia btw.
Jeff somehow making Elon look like a better person in the billionaire bullshit race

I think he wants to be the fifth face.

His facial hair is sadly lacking to be included in that line-up! 🧔🏻

:-)

The fact that there is a huge convoy full of soldiers and weapons

Its actually in Ukraine, right? Soaking up resources and a massive target, but just sat there?

Waiting for the barrage on Kyiv to flatten the city at distance then go in? Or, genuinely stuck and immobile?

Independent paper saying a key military figure has been killed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kill-andrei-sukhovetsky-b2027858.html

If you want to help in a more direct way there is this site:

https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/humanitarian-help

Only a few have experienced the luxury trapping of the west

That depends on your definition of luxury. The run on IKEA, for example, shows that certain western things will certainly be missed

@scratch

Some of the convos on the news are absolutely bonkers, a reporter was asking another about the possibility of Nuclear war the other day on R1, the one said ‘probably not, but if I’m wrong you’ll not be able to question me on it HA HA HA HA ! Yes hilarious! Serves me right for not listening to R2 in the car I ‘spose

It’s probably more to do with the Radio 1 generation (is it still supposedly for 18-25s?) having a very nihilistic sense of humour. Lots of ‘jokes’ about suicide but underpinned by a sense of worthlessness/helplessness because the world is being run by insane boomers who hold all the power and all the money. Putin being an obvious example.

No comment on Radio2 though.

Yes there is that – part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he’s decided that he’s going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.

You do of course need to leave at least one person alive to write it and another to read it, I do hope he’s taken that into account.

Once he’s “won” in Ukraine, I reckon the “terrorist” bombs will start going off in mother Russia.

Millions of rounds of ammunition expended in futility and actually, when it comes down to it, only one round needs firing.

Once he’s “won” in Ukraine, I reckon the “terrorist” bombs will start going off in mother Russia.

It’s worked for him before.

only one round needs firing.

I’m hoping a whole magazine gets used, just to be on the safe side.

Waiting for the barrage on Kyiv to flatten the city at distance then go in? Or, genuinely stuck and immobile?

Obviously and genuinely, I don’t know. Only time will tell.

But look at Aleppo, look at Mauripol and then consider whether the Russians are building up to something for Kyiv?

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

Pretty much every sector of the Russian economy is going to have the same problem. Their oil industry won’t last long if they can’t import equipment.

Maker of Russian Ladas shuts down automotive production line due to the inability to procure semiconductors (US Foreign Product Rule in action)

Expect major impact on Russian defense and space production as well

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 4, 2022

It is quite well protected by AA, presumably infantry either side to the range of handheld AT and the whole thing is outside artillery range.
I had heard that they are waiting for the Ukrainian artillery to become less of a problem, presumably run out of ammo, and then move forward to a staging post. It’s just one theory.
Also, all the talk is of that but the main advances are in the south, it could just be a big decoy🤷‍♂️

Russian Air Force still missing in action. Seems odd as this is where Russia should have the greatest technical and numerical superiority over Ukraine. Various theories doing the rounds from it being a paper tiger to holding back in case of wider war with NATO.

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

We don’t know what damage has been done, we don’t know if they still have fuel and rations, we don’t know how much of it can still move

You don’t have to blow up every truck

In some ways keeping them at some state of working means they further drain any new logistics for fuel and rations etc

The mud is only going to get worse, the Russians could end up abandoning it and walking home

Russian Air Force still missing in action.

One theory is that they just didn’t have a big stock of guided munitions so they are going to have to do low-level attacks with unguided bombs. Ukraine has thousands of Stingers etc. so Russia will probably lose a lot of aircraft.

Thoughts – coming up from the south and down from the North are they trying to split the country roughly along the line of the Dniepr? This would isolate Ukrainian forces in the East. The Ukrainians around Donetsk and Luhansk appear to have been left largely alone so this could be why, and they are generally regarded as the best defended areas.

As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?

I’m guessing, but possibly because:

There will be Russian air defence assets there, making it difficult for fast jet or drone strike.  The Ukrainians ability to try either of those must also be degraded as each day passes.  I think a lot of air bases in the unoccupied West where drones and jets operate from are taking an aerial pounding from the Russians.  Also, they may just be running out.  The smart munitions fired from the TB2 drone are expensive and finite- they simply couldn’t take out hundreds of vehicles with them even if they wanted to.

The convoy is massive, the defenders might get some opportunities to take out the odd vehicle with a Javelin or NLAW but they’ll barely make a dent in it.  There are an awful lot of Russian troops milling about, they’ll be constantly doing defensive patrols of likely firing points.

I doubt if there is much in the way of Ukrainian artillery left to shell them.