Ukraine

In the first instance: it’s a form of punishment for dissenters and in the second; provides more canon fodder. At the very least’ there’s no downside for Putin in doing so.

I don’t think the purpose is to punish but to threaten, in order to prevent dissent.

Not sure any commander want their ranks containing dissenters already brave enough to take risks and subsequently armed.

For anyone not bothering to click on Dazhs Arnaud Bertrand tweet.

The guys bio two liner is this;

Founder of http://MeAndQi.com, the website that explains Chinese Medicine.

Tweets mostly about China, a country in which I live and that I love.

The multiple sources he quotes are pretty interesting and relevant though wouldn’t you say?

What we should at least be able to agree on is it was naive to think that going right up to Russia’s borders was anything but a good idea.

I don’t think it’s naive at all, I think in hindsight it was lucky it was there at all, if the attack in Ukraine shows us anything, as you have agreed on this thread, it shows that both the US and RF will only attack proxy states. If Ukraine had been admitted, we wouldn’t be here right now. NATO is Putin’s animus, because it prevents him from restoring the Russian Empire. where the border of that organisation is, is immaterial, it’s a red herring . if it wasn’t that it would’ve been the EU. or the European Defence Strategy, any narrative that he can use would’ve served his purpose  The mistake in the analysis is expecting Putin to act like a rational head of state who wants peace. He doesn’t, he wants expand his control over a larger Empire.

After all it has led us to our current situation.

No, Putin personal animus with the rest of Europe for not paying him the attention he thinks he deserves is what’s lead us to this current situation.

It’s called “Stop The War”. Not “Stop War”, or “Stop All Wars”, that’s because the “The” in the title refers to Western Imperialist expansion. If you see every conflict through the lens of anti-western Imperialism, then this one’s no different, but but if you’ve got blinkers on you might miss the possibility that Putin is the threat.

They are interesting in that they demonstrate that there are those who believe appeasement of Putin will lead to peace. History has proved time and again, and is proving in Ukraine, that that is not the case.

The mistake in the analysis is expecting Putin to act like a rational head of state who wants peace. He doesn’t, he wants expand his control over a larger Empire.

This, sadly, seems about right.

I’m just hoping he runs out of bombs, or functioning kit/men, or patience of the Russian people, or breath, as soon as possible. But that may be too optimistic.

What’s the likelihood of a Russian military coup?

I think i know one the reasons that the armour isn’t having the effect tjat Pootang wanted.
It might be alot to do with the 15,000 odd anti tank weapons that have found their way into Ukraine over the last week
Aljezzera lists countries who have donated hardware. Obviously this cannot 100% be proven, and some just list money value
Some serious numbers and billions of euros of guns, ammo, rockets, fuels. Even smaller eu members getting in on the act. Czech Republic fpr example 30,000 pistols. Simple to operate and conceal pretty much zero training’s requirement.
Enough to equip a UK division of troops properly, although transport and logistics would be a nightmare. Gotta be able to move, eat, sleep amd stay warm in sub zero temps.

Well I hope the humanitarian pathways are opened.

What’s the likelihood of a Russian military coup?

Putin is cunning and has surrounded himself with people who owe everything to him personally. He has not allowed anyone else to be powerful enough to become a potential rival. Anyone who does have access to him is shackled to him and personal survival rests on him staying in power. It’s not impossible that he’ll be overthrown, but I don’t think it’s highly likely either. Remember how the N. Korean leader had someone publicly executed with an anti-aircraft autocannon? Putin’s mates mates know that their fate would probably be worse if they stepped out of line.

I think i know one the reasons that the armour isn’t having the effect tjat Pootang wanted.
It might be alot to do with the 15,000 odd anti tank weapons that have found their way into Ukraine over the last week

That’s obviously part of it, but I think a lot of it is that the Russian troops were poorly trained and equipped. AIUI, tanks need infantry to protect them against anti-tank missiles, they all need anti-aircraft batteries, they need fuel and ammunition supplies, etc. That requires a lot of training to coordinate all the different parts of the army. The Russians seem to be just driving down the road and then not knowing what to do when the Ukrainians hit them with missiles and drones.

Not sure if this has been mentioned, at least 1 russian businessman doesn’t want putin in charge any longer and is willing to put his money where his mouth is. http://www.independent.co.uk

I’d like to think the change needed will come from inside russia without the need for NATO to require force, unfortunately I can’t see it happening

I’ve not contributed much, mainly because I’m not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.

On the radio yesterday an ex-head of the armed forces was saying that it’s pretty inevitable that Putin will take control of Ukrainian cities, given time and firepower, and upping the bombardments he’s able to eventually force that.

But once done could he then manage to keep them against an insurgent population.

Not that I want him to ‘win’ but at what point do Ukrainians give up (all or part of the country) to maintain some infrastructure and housing and…. and then settle in to making it a long, uncomfortable occupation that will eventually see him out?

I suppose that if that happens he thinks who’s next on his westward march but hasn’t NATO’s response given him cause to think that would see him smashed in no time. I see both sides that he feels he’s been pushed to this by NATO expansion, but attacking an actual NATO country would get a swift and hard response, he has to see that now?

What’s the likelihood of a Russian military coup?

Sadly, as @thols2 says, the problem with all these dictator types is they surround themselves with subservient yes-men who owe their entire existence and way of life to the Leader. Saddam, Gaddafi, Kim Jong-un, Putin. They’re all the same.

Step out of line or get too big for your boots and you get cut out of the inner circle and potentially assassinated. Makes it very hard for the Leader to do rational things or accept/be told that they’re wrong in any way when no matter what idea you come up with is greeted in the manner of Arthur telling God that the search for the Holy Grail is a good idea.

“Of course it’s a good idea, I thought of it!”

Well I hope the humanitarian pathways are opened.

Yeah, Putin agreed to this in Syria as well, and then shelled convoys using them.

I too think the chances of a coup are nil I’m afraid. Apart from anything else he still has the affection of a decent chunk of the population.

Feels to me like Ukraine’s military are outgunned, although not outclassed. This will lead to a long and bloody fight with mass casualties. The best hope is that this whittles down Russian capabilities and morale to the point where a stalemate followed by a ceasefire occurs. This I think is the best Ukraine can achieve at this point, assuming they can hold on.

As an aside, looking at the maps of Russian advances, it looks like they may be targeting the capture of the nuclear plants as a priority?

Not that I want him to ‘win’ but at what point do Ukrainians give up (all or part of the country) to maintain some infrastructure and housing and…. and then settle in to making it a long, uncomfortable occupation that will eventually see him out?

Putin has maintained all along, and said as much yesterday to Macron that he wants all of Ukraine. There’s no reason to think he’ll settle for less than that. His gamble has always been that eventually the west simmer down, the sanctions ease, that Europe will come for his gas, that the UN is toothless, and the world’s ultimately divided. Up to this point he’s been proved right every time. Is this the point at which the rest of us shrug and start to look away again?

Maybe if a few more people (and people covertly funded by other states) put some cash in the assassination pot so that it reaches an 8 or 9 figure sum, then it could be too tempting for folk not to have a pop?

Maybe if a few more people (and people covertly funded by other states) put some cash in the assassination pot so that it reaches an 8 or 9 figure sum, then it could be too tempting for folk not to have a pop?

I’m not sure if this is what the creators intended Ethereum smart contracts to be used for but…

Moscow stock exchange remains closed. If it ever reopens it will immediately collapse seems to be the generally held view. Russian companies listed in other markets have lost nearly all their value.

15 years in prison for telling the truth in Russia.

Some reports of protests in Belarus – not clear if true or how widespread.

His gamble has always been that eventually the west simmer down, the sanctions ease, that Europe will come for his gas, that the UN is toothless, and the world’s ultimately divided. Up to this point he’s been proved right every time.

This. So, at what point does a line get drawn?

15yrs for this guy… 😬

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-stock-market-moscow-exchange-b2028216.html?jwsource=cl

Dunno if it’s just me but….

I’ve been around a bit. I don’t ever remember the constant, debilitating anxiety caused by world events that I’m feeling now. I don’t objectively believe the world is in greater danger now than during previous crises. It’s bad, but it’s been as bad before. For me, I think there are a few reasons it’s affecting me more.

Firstly, being older. More reflective, fatigued, disillusioned. My youthful optimism about redeeming human traits gradually eroded over the years.  A personal factor, but possibly the main one for me.

Secondly, the Ukraine war being just the latest in a long line of utterly depressing global news. The relentless, cumulative attrition of climate change, Covid, austerity, our inept and corrupt government, poverty, war and unrest elsewhere. When was the last truly uplifting world news?  We really are a f*****g scourge on the planet!

Thirdly and perhaps the only one I have any control over. The all pervading, minute by minute coverage. I’m an absolute sucker for it. Twitter, YouTube, STW. Constantly flicking between news outlets for a different take on it: BBC; Russia Today; Al-Jazeera; CNN; Reuters etc. I’ve found myself ‘doomscrolling’ at 3 or 4 in the morning for the last week. It is really starting to mess with my head. I am going to make a conscious effort to step back a bit. I’ll still keep an eye on this thread and watch the headlines briefly once a day but that’s it.

Sorry, I’m not offering any insightful input to the thread, I just need to vent a little steam to some complete strangers for the sake of my mental health!

I’m in the same boat^^. I got a promotion yesterday that I’ve been trying hard to get for months and it barely registered because I’m so wrapped up in this shit show. The only thing that lifts my spirits is the thought of Putin getting an absolute kicking over Ukraine

^^^ This too

Last night I got home from the office and, well, just couldn’t be bothered. I got narky with my kids for nothing more than being kids then had some beers because why the hell not. It’s all **** up.

@blokeupthe road

Not just you, I’ve decided to drink beer, switch off the news and ride a bike this weekend

Vent away it’s one of the perks of living in a free country. Even if we have a few bad apple’s.
Putin is addressing *his* people later

@blokeuptheroad, vent away chap, I’m the same, plus I started listening to a podcast “The Coming Storm” after being recommended it by a mate, frankly it’s all a bit much. I think you’ve said out loud what most of us are thinking.

When I woke uip this morning to the news that the RF were shelling a nuclear power plant, I was genuinely lost for a moment or two.

Putin is addressing *his* people later

No doubt he’ll blame the attack on the nuclear plant on Ukrainians and say his crack team went in to ensure it was made safe.

I’m fine.

Doing none of the work I actually get paid for and toggling between the same three browser tabs for 8 hours a day is actually fairly normal behaviour for me :)

15yrs for this guy… 😬

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-stock-market-moscow-exchange-b2028216.html?jwsource=cl

The look on the interviewers face was priceless!

I’ve not contributed much, mainly because I’m not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.

Firstly this – you’re describing me too. Just wish to thank all those in the discussion that’s contributing helpfully, I’m sure I’ll chip in at some point but a lot of this is overwhelming.

And @blokeuptheroad (and others), definitely not just you. I’m glad to read others are feeling the same as me. I’m trying not to overload on news/source outlets. TBH I struggle to know where to start which is why STW is a Great Source Of Knowledge On All Things for me.

I’m fine.

Doing none of the work I actually get paid for and toggling between the same three browser tabs for 8 hours a day is actually fairly normal behaviour for me 🙂

😮 Gizajob! 😄

I started listening to a podcast “The Coming Storm”

Excellent podcast. Not going to cheer anyone up though. 😀

the problem with all these dictator types is they surround themselves with subservient yes-men who owe their entire existence and way of life to the Leader. Saddam, Gaddafi, Kim Jong-un, Putin. They’re all the same.

He’s also underpinned by the oligarchs who probably don’t really GAS about Russia, but see their fortunes and lifestyles under threat from a situation of his making. They might be the cuddly face of organised crime rather than the finger breaking toenail pulling, but they know people who do that sort of thing.

And money talks.

Putin is addressing *his* people later

And we all enter the alternative universe he inhabits. It’s easy to be cynical and laugh at the utterly preposterous lies, but I’m starting to wonder if he’s been living this bizarre, isolated existence for so long, and his regime just chucks about misinformation with such abandon, that he now actually believes all this shit?

I do wonder where the next lot of Nazis will come from they have a base on the moon apparently . Or was that film

Oh and McDonald’s are still in operation in Russia. If that doesn’t give you an excuse not to eat from them this weekend I don’t know what will.

I’ve not contributed much, mainly because I’m not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.

We’re all in the same boat, anyone who claims any sort of expertise (aside from the handful of former Forces people) is chatting shit, like the Brexit and Covid threads, everyone is just trying to make sense of it all.

Yeah, feel the same Blokeuptheroad, I think your first reason is my main issue

Have felt a lot better since Governments have stopped saying the word ‘Nuclear’ as much, potentially we’re heading for another new, but very *****y normal.

Some of the convos on the news are absolutely bonkers, a reporter was asking another about the possibility of Nuclear war the other day on R1, the one said ‘probably not, but if I’m wrong you’ll not be able to question me on it HA HA HA HA ! Yes hilarious! Serves me right for not listening to R2 in the car I ‘spose

but I’m starting to wonder if he’s been living this bizarre, isolated existence for so long, and his regime just chucks about misinformation with such abandon, that he now actually believes all this shit?

I think Putin and Lavrov now totally believe their own BulSh*t…

Anyone care to guess what ‘our’ line in the sand is? At what point will the US, EU or NATO say “**** it” and send in Peace Keepers or start bombing the Russians? Is there a point when the risk of escalation is preferable to the alternative? It must have come close when they started lobbing shells at a Nuclear Power Station!