Ukraine

Also, if the world as we know it is about to end and we are all going to die horribly why has no one rushed out and bought all the bog roll? Have we all still got plenty left from last time?

My only comment on this will probably go unnoticed but I am really heartened by the news of so many people and companies and organisations around the world just saying “no”. Stopping trade, cancelling deals, stopping electronics transactions, stopping Russian sports from competing. Even Russia is part of the 21sr century but it’s been cut off from it completely. Yes more might be able to to be done but it’s awesome to see what’s been done so far.
I have just seen Russia are going to appeal against their football ban – do they actually think anyone will play against them anyway?
The best one I have seen is that someone has hacked into Russian electric car charging points so they display “Putin is a d******d” on them all.

There’s plenty of ‘news’ on YouTube with what appears to be interesting content.
Anyone know to see any info on who is uploading particular videos? I can’t find any poster’s bios or anything, would be helpful in judging how accurate it is likely to be.

As an aside, I think it’s extremely naieve to think that informal (secret?) discussions don’t take place between highly placed diplomats and/or military top brass, to sound out whether a country would be interested in “applying” to join NATO.

Just to add a little levity to the proceedings, a report from News Thump;

Huge convoy approaching Kyiv ‘just protesting vaccine mandates’ insists Russia

@markgraylish – that’s almost a certainty, all ‘off the record’, etc, as you say, naïve to think otherwise.

I have a lot of sympathy for any Russians keeping their heads down. Can’t do much good if you’re dead or in jail. Poor buggers.

They also put dissidents’ kids into care, aka orphanage. One might risk jail or death, but who’d risk that?

he is acting as a Tsar ruling over an empire would.

People say this but surely he knows what happened to the last actual Tsar…

I can see why people are wondering what his state of health is. Someone who’d been given a terminal diagnosis might well no longer give a single **** and just start doing random stuff to see what happened.

Just had a quick shufti at ADS-B, and at the moment there’s a French, a British and a Belgian transport, two A400 Atlas and a C-17 Globemaster, all heading back west from somewhere in Poland…

…oh, and a German A400 as well.

why has no one rushed out and bought all the bog roll?

Who Gives A Crap – a big box arrived again today

This should be quoted to anyone who just writes the words ‘NATO expansionism’, because it’s clearly and blatantly untrue.

https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592?s=21

The guy who ran the falafel shop under independence square was an Israeli who’d come to Ukraine because he thought it was safer… Now even the Yemenis are hightailing it out because it is all.too.familiar https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/yemen-students-ukraine-russia-war

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-are-we-in-ukraine/

Just for a bit of balance before any jingoism leads to dyspepsia.

slowoldman
Full Member
Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.

Or to put a slightly different spin on it, there are neighbours of Russia who are quite keen to join NATO.

A further spin is that Ukraine and Georgia despite overtures, where never going to join be allowed to join NATO and Ukraine in particular had forewarning..

NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations. We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May. MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership. Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for MAP. Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications. We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting. Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.

That is the Bucharest Summit Declaration in April 2008, 4 months later Russia invaded Georgia.

I’m in no way justifying Russia here, their actions are abhorrent, but ideas that Russia or Georgia would ever have been permitted to join NATO are folly, and it was bad policy for either of their countries to seek it.

Not saying that democratically it wasn’t their right to seek it, it was absolutely, but ultimately given the current destruction of Ukraine, the reality and hindsight says it wasn’t a great idea.

Now being speculative and conspiratorial here, but it’s not unknown Russia’s attitude to Ukraine join in particular was hostile. So given that I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that Ukraine could perhaps be a bit of a sacrificial lamb in a wider game here.

If you ask, out with the destruction of Ukraine, and Ukraine staying within the Russian sphere, what is the outcome of this conflict?

To me it looks like a new cold war, and European Military spending is going to vastly increase, and we more than likely will have a new arms race, and Europe in general is all in in NATO now.

Now having a look a wider geopolitics of the next 20/30, China will challenge the US and it will most likely surpass them, The US won’t be able to challenge them alone, US and Europe will. Which is a complete sea change, cause America and Europe did seem to be drifting apart a bit tbh

/End Conspiracy

The idea that Russia want a buffer against NATO is all a bit nonsense when you think about it.
The only demilitarised zone that seems to work is Korea and that’s 4km wide and a tad tense.
The green line in Beirut was hardly stable.
Moving Russia’s border to the line on the map that is the polish border is obvious expansionism.

Apparently some of the conscripts may have been put in the army by way of punishment after being convicted of ‘non specific crimes’ (opposing the government). Also people who are seen as ‘weak, not manly enough etc can find themselves sent to the army to toughenn up.

Combined with the fact that many that have been sent in have only had 4 months training that basically consisted of getting the hell beaten out of them by ‘the grandads’ it’s not difficult to see why Putin wouldn’t care about them. To say that their morale is low doesn’t even come close,

All NATOs fault obvs.

I thought it was clear by now that this war is not about NATO or Russia's security concerns.

Yet, I still see many comments saying that it is.

Let me clarify a few things.

This war is based on Putin's struggle to remain in power.

NATO is just an excuse.

Here is why ??

— Sergei Perfiliev ?? (@perfiliev) March 1, 2022

Interesting piece on CNN regarding the effects of sanctions… It’s effectively lead to unofficial sanctions on Russian oil exports as western companies won’t touch it for fear of falling foul of current sanctions or ones soon to be imposed.

One Russian company attempting to sell a tanker load well below market… With no takers.

This will hurt Putin. Also the West of course.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/investing/russia-oil-sanctions-ukraine/index.html

Dazh, lots of truths in that … but it’s all a bit “well, if she hadn’t sought help when he was threatening her with violence, he wouldn’t have beaten her”. We know Putin considers Ukraine a “non-country”, and we know he doesn’t want other states to treat Ukraine as a sovereign state, but as if it was part of his world, which he should control. This war is not a response to NATO, it is a move by Putin to create a legacy and demonstrate his strength at home.

Hmmm, Squirrel of Doom complicates that thread a bit.

All NATOs fault obvs.

Nobody is saying it is all nato’s fault. Though we should maybe separate nato and the US when it comes to foreign policy.

What we should at least be able to agree on is it was naive to think that going right up to Russia’s borders was anything but a good idea. After all it has led us to our current situation.

So blame should lie with all.

Just a blanket denial isnt going to help anything.

dyna-ti

So blame should lie with all.

Blame lies directly with Russia, and no one else for the invasion of Ukraine. But that doesn’t means there’s not other things going on.

naive to think that going right up to Russia’s borders was anything but a good idea

It’s either that or wait for the RF to come up to the borders of more existing NATO countries. Which recent NATO signatories would you have turned down? All the Baltic states? How many NATO countries border Russia? Go on… and would you kick them all out of NATO? Putin is showing his strength and expanding by force… NATO hasn’t accelerated that by welcoming Eastern European states, arguably it is one of the key things that has slowed it down.

And, your regular reminder… Ukraine is not in NATO.

Woulda’, Coulda’, shoulda’.

There were many twists and turns after the USSR collapsed, I’m not sure it’s possible to look at one particular decision as pivotal.

The threat faced now is existential to those counterfactual arguments.

“you”

Not me mate.

But tell you what. This is the situation we are in, so just keep going in this direction and we’ll see what happens eh ?.

Ukraine is not in NATO.

And your regular reminder – Did Ukraine not express interest in joining NATO ?.

dyna-ti

So blame should lie with all

“There are very fine people on both sides”

NATO has expanded, that’s clear. Plenty of maps available to show the growth eastwards.
We’ve also been involved in many illegal wars in the last 30 years, removing governments we’ve not been happy with. Our governments,
former politicians and senior military leaders are profiteering nicely from these previous wars.

It still doesn’t make Putin and the Russian invasion in anyway justified.

Don’t know if anybody else has been listening to BBC World Service but… BBC World Service has had ex Putin advisor and speech writer on this evening, absolutely condemning of him, but he says the truth about Putin is he isn’t the calculating genius that we think he is, nor is he a raging Imperialist. No the truth is he just wants to be popular!

And sadly for the world, Putins ratings go up when Russia fights a battle (ones they’ve carefully picked so that they can come away with small victories), and in times of peace his ratings go down and within 2yrs or so the public starts protesting against him and figures like Navalny start gaining more and more support.

But this time he had accidentally bitten off seriously more than he could chew. His “intelligence” on Ukraine is woeful basically because he has surrounded himself in an echo chamber, nobody will disagree with him and he has romanticised about being welcomed as a liberator believing that Ukrainians actually believe his hype anyway and would be easily swayed. Apparently Zelensky now calling for 1 on 1 talks, nobody else involved, is a very smart move because they know Putin has now retreated into his Nuclear Bunker in the Ural Mountains where he won’t now come out until the war is over… His threat of escalation of nuclear power is because he’d already played all his cards and was shown to have nothing in poker terms, now all he has left is bluffing!

This could be interesting… An international case of “how to give Putin the right amount of rope, not too little, not too much, to first of all allow him to climb down off his pedestal to safety, before then kicking the stool away once he thinks he’s safe so he hangs himself”…

“NATO hasn’t accelerated that by welcoming Eastern European states, arguably it is one of the key things that has slowed it down.”

Absolutely, If we’re getting all counterfactual about it then what are the odds that one or more of the Baltic States would have been Belarusified already had they not signed up to NATO?

For anyone pinning their hopes Russian protesters, there could be legislation passed tomorrow that would conscript those arrested for protesting.

The very definition of cannon fodder.

Sounds like Ukraine is more than Putin can handle

Rumours are he’s about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn’t have the troops to carry on

The worrying thing is that he’s backing himself ever tighter into a corner

With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?

The Pentagon judges that 90% of the Russian force concentrated on Ukraine's borders ten days ago has now entered the country. The first phase of their operation has happened and they are stalled. So what do they do now? 1/

— Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) March 3, 2022

Interesting thread on state of Russian equipment

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.?

1/ pic.twitter.com/LmxW43v6gy

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022

So blame should lie with all.

Blame lies with Putin. He’s the one who ordered his troops to bombard cities full of innocent civilians. As far as I’m aware, NATO has not fired a shot in this war. Ukraine was attacked by Russia. NATO and Ukraine do not share the blame for this. It’s all on Putin.

NATO has expanded, that’s clear.

Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia, which just now has invaded a country that wanted to join NATO, and has threatened nukes in response to any inteference from NATO members.

The problem here is not NATO.

“With Russia’s army busy in Ukraine, how does he police the Caucuses or Kahzakstan or even Belarus?”

With fear? A few days ago I might have posted that unrest in other bordering countries or provinces might drain resources and cause problems for Putin, I feel a bit differently now.

Rumours are he’s about to declare martial law in Russia and begin conscription because he doesn’t have the troops to carry on

Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel.

Interesting thread about Russian paratroopers looking scary but being pretty much useless in real combat.

Russian paratroopers were used as paratroopers only during the suppression of "fascist revolt" in Hungary 1956 and in Czechoslovakia 1968. Why? Because they knew they're not gonna face another regular army there. So they can unleash their psyop without fearing any consequences pic.twitter.com/kttkY585hW

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 3, 2022

Because countries apply to join, because they see the threat from Russia

Perhaps if Russia had been involved in western thinking from the start,then the other countries wouldnt have had anything to worry about.

That and the $30billion incentive fee.

@Pondo, I’m not saying there’s no reason to join NATO, but a previous poster mentioned NATO isn’t interested in expansionism. Well, maybe not as a collective. But certainly individual members are.
Our illegal wars haven’t always had us being on the good guys side irrespective of what our politicians say. There’s plenty of opinion pieces from way before this war started regarding the US and NATO’s expansion eastwards. There’s an awful lot more to it than just looking after our neighbours.

In this war the blame lies solely with Putin. I actually don’t think this is just about NATO, but Putin does appear to hold a grudge since Yugoslavia and has said this started then.

By the way, I’m completely anti war. Anti Putin and blame him entirely.

This is quite apt to how I feel at the moment:

“I’d like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”

I am really wondering if the best thing to happen to this planet is for a Nuke to be fired. Incredibly depressing thought. But this is just going to go on and on. Until the next war. All the while we are killing this planet.

Apologies for going off on a tangent. (I’ve only had 2 beers so no excuse!)

“Not much point in press-ganging conscripts if you already have tens of thousands sitting around starving and out of ammo and fuel.”

In the first instance: it’s a form of punishment for dissenters and in the second; provides more canon fodder. At the very least’ there’s no downside for Putin in doing so.

If I find myself thinking what Putin might do I ask myself ‘what would Stalin do?” It’s not unthinkable that conscripts would be thrown into the fight with a modern day equivalent of the NKVD at their backs, threatening to shoot them if they don’t advance.

Those Russian conscripts that have surrendered so far might be the lucky ones. What’s to say that threats to persecute conscripts families won’t soon be issued should they choose to surrender? We have to accept that for Putin nothing is unconscionable.

“I’d like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague.”

Yes we’ve all seen ‘The Matrix’ It’s a quote from the movie.

Although some here would argue the case that it is all the fault of Russia.

Nice to see our usual resident lefties living up to the example of their messiah as useful idiots…

*slow handclap*

It’s worth watching Newscast on iplayer from tonight. Rory Stewart was on and talked a lot of sense (which is obviously why he’s no longer in the Tory party)