Ukraine

A sober assessment from Chomsky:

https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-us-military-escalation-against-russia-would-have-no-victors/

So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment.

The Russians wouldn’t be closing in on them if they wanted to destroy them, they would do it from a safe distance. Most likely they want to capture the power stations

IRRC the Asoz brigade were far right extremists who have been incorporated into the Ukrainian national guard. This has supposedly reigned them in but seemingly not that much.

Not sure of the source but seems legit:

Ukraine National Guard shares video of neo-Nazi unit greasing bullets with pig fat for use against Muslim Chechen fighters, Twitter allows it

Ask ypurself: Would Putin be prepared to inflict the same type of pain on his own citizens as he does to those of Ukraine?

Yes… But for how long?

This isn’t Communist Russia any more, much of Russia might still act like it is communist and believe the state media, but if he wants to wage war on his own citizens (with what army, finances, supplies? 🤷🏻‍♂️) behind an iron curtain, he won’t be able to do it whilst being heavily committed in Ukraine at the same time!

@doris5000 – thanks for posting that up, its a really interesting analysis.

Very insightful indeed.

So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree

I don’t think Russia was in terminal decline as such, they just hadn’t realised how Globalised they had come (or rather Putin hadn’t) whilst at the same time being incompatible with his Imperialist views…

For Imperialism to work long term, the general public have to fully buy in to the “greater good”… Putin has pushed corrupt capitalism into Russia rather than trying to keep it out, he has essentially created a system that has provided himself with short term cash, but a system highly incompatible with providing any long term impetus on carrying out his Imperialist ideals…

The rest of the world has been all too happy to not pull the plug on the Russian economy for a long time now, because of the obvious gas and oil dependancy… Remove that dependancy, or find an alternative supplier, and as we’ve seen already the rest of the world can pull the financial plug on even one of the worlds largest economies in literally no time at all.

Make no mistake, Russia is going to experience extreme poverty all too soon, and the only way out will be if the EU/NATO/US are happy to prop it up again… And it’s quite clear that will no longer happen with Putin at the helm. Russian people faced with a choice of Putin induced extreme poverty or a ready and willing west helping them to rebuild their economy and bring all the luxuries back again, he won’t even make it to The Hague! 🤷🏻‍♂️

To quote a phrase… He’s screwed the pooch here!

Not sure of the source but seems legit:

yeah….of course it does if you’re a fan of right wing politics, you do know how to use google?

I mean the tweet is real AFAICS

But yeah you’re right I didn’t check the opindia site and it’s shady. Apologies.

But the Asov brigade is a real thing. We don’t have to pretend everyone in Ukraine is a righteous hero to believe the invasion is wrong.

Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with ‘sexual perversions’.

Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,

And your point is?

Dunno….go on…. enlighten me?

Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with ‘sexual perversions’.

There is plenty of far more unpleasant stuff associated with the Azov unit out there

Most of Europe has some form of far right nutter group (Polish group chasing non-white refugees etc), the nuances of it in the Ukrainian context are bound to be complex. However it shouldn’t distract from the core issue of getting the Russians out of Ukraine, once peace comes then the Ukrainian President who is Jewish after all will have far more political clout to tackle the problem.

according to the the far right got less than 2% of the 2019 election vote. hardly rampant

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-top-10-war-myths-newsguard

They were incorporated and the state pays them salaries. Fairly unusual in a European context, no? It’s not exactly a simple case of goodies Vs baddies.

Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,

A broken clock is right twice a day.

No-one (here at least) is claiming any of this makes Putin’s supposed ‘denazification’ legitimate, but it is an interesting and concerning aspect of all this.

It does look like attrition is the way to go.
Of course we don’t know how capable Russia military is, stories about their convoys running on only days worth of rations and fuel may or may not be western propaganda.

I hate to be the one to mention Sun-Tzu again, but with thier currency in trouble, 25% interest rates and the freezing of assets,it’s simply a matter of when, not if, Russia will fall.

You need seriously robust logistics backing up the front line attack.

Why attack the front line when you can cut supply lines from the back end by ruining thier economy?

There seems to be a global effort to screw putin financially. It’s not war of you simply stop doing business with someone.

Starve them out, so to speak

It does seem that, while the Russian army may seem to be disorganised and ill-equipped they are taking control of key cities. What is that tipping point where the Ukrainians have to consider a mass-evacuation/retreat and regroup to fight another day?

Sadly it isn’t surprising that Boris won’t sanction his paymasters. Spineless load of shits

A few of my family (who are raving Brexit-worshippers) seem to think that Johnson has single handedly lead the way with the EU following his lead! Where the hell they’ve got that idea from I have no idea. If the EU countries can immediately start freezing funds and siezing yachts etc then surely we, with out nww-found sovereignty should be able to do the same? Oh no, we have to give them 18 months notice and actively help them liquidate assets!

Anyway, back to the immediate problems and the people that really matter, the Ukrainian civilians.

A sober assessment from Chomsky:

The problem that all of these analysis never address is

1. It assumes Putin will make a rational decision to that of a similar western leader and that withdrawal of NATO from surrounding states will achieve some sort of detent or peace because it mistakenly asserts that what Putin wants to not have a threatening force on his border when in reality it’s a zero sum game to him and he will invade as he will perceive it as weakness. He wins; you loose, if that hasn’t been clear before, surely it bloody well should be by now (do we have to make another list of all the countries he done this to over the years, again?)

2. this analysis offers no alternative to the states that have joined, other than to be pawns in a game of “Please let’s not be beastly to Putin”

I normally agree with Chomsky, but I think the NATO encroachment argument is a duff one, and is being used just to make anti-Imperialist attack’s on the US. By all means make anti Imperialist attacks on the US, God knows they deserves critism,  this isn’t a sound one though.

Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.

Increasing rumours of martial law in Russia as of tonight.

Looks like the Iron Curtain is back.

Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.

Follows on from suggestion that tomorrows emergency Russian Parliamentary session will be to invoke martial law.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/03/russia-introduce-martial-law-war-ukraine/

You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?

It wouldn’t surprise me, but show me a European country that doesn’t have an extreme Right-wing group or organisation within its borders. There’s Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Great Britain, Sweden, Russia…

Yep Nick, Korea, Guatamala, Panama, Iraq …. Imperialism is the problem, best demand Stop the War! Russian kids on exercise, 18-60s told they can’t leave. It’s all F awful.

A few of my family (who are raving Brexit-worshippers) seem to think that Johnson has single handedly lead the way with the EU following his lead! Where the hell they’ve got that idea from I have no idea.

I’ve just had to block a guy who was formerly by best customer some years ago from Facebook (and I hate censorship!) for this very reason… There just is no reasoning with him, he keeps spamming my “radical leftist” posts and is sharing some stuff that even the Daily Fail or the Telegraph would find pretty far fetched on his page. If I question it, he then continually calls me out for living in an “echo chamber” (I sat watching RT World News the other night, trying to find sense in the Russian propaganda and how pervasive it is in the US right now!)…

These people exist crazily. He didn’t used to be like this, but he has firmly entered the Cult of Boris… Boris could piss on his chips and he’d say it tasted like vinegar ffs! He can do no wrong.

In that respect, he is no different to a significant number of Russian citizens right now I guess! 🤷🏻‍♂️

Well done for posting that up BillMC, though I see its even being addressed as a negative. Noam Chomskey must be one of those Putineers some members have been talking about.

It’s not exactly a simple case of goodies Vs baddies.

Indeed. It seems like today’s hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.

It seems like today’s hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.

And in return, Israel is hedging its bets on this war… politics, eh?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/israel-tries-to-balance-backing-for-ukrainians-and-not-offending-russia

Yad Vashem, Israel’s Holocaust museum, has even found itself in the peculiar position of writing to the US ambassador to ask the US not to impose sanctions on the Israeli-Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, who is a major donor to Jewish institutions – and a longtime supporter of Putin.

So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment..? I’ve no clue.

Okay, to address your first question – would they “go up” – the simple answer is no. It’s not a bomb and operates in a completely different way.

Whether they are safe from bombardment or not is a different question. PWR reactors have secondary containment buildings which are designed to withstand internal and external damage. Now I’d imagine a stray missile or mortar on its own wouldn’t be much of an issue, even if it blew the secondary containment the reactor would be shut down and the radiation would fall to safe levels very quickly, the issue would be if the coolant loops got damaged in some way and the back ups failed. A sustained bombardment, on the other hand, would be devastating but I’m not sure anyone would actually do that as the fallout would be immense (literally and figuratively) and probably result in something worse than Chernobyl ever was.

Indeed. It seems like today’s hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.

Show me a person that hasn’t turned a blind eye to at least one thing that they found morally wrong in the past, and I’ll show you a liar…

Your point?

A sustained bombardment, on the other hand, would be devastating but I’m not sure anyone would actually do that as the fallout would be immense (literally and figuratively) and probably result in something worse than Chernobyl ever was.

It will be about turning the lights off rather than creating Chernobyl V2.0… You can’t hack something like a Nuclear Power station remotely to turn the power off, you need to have physical control of it yourself.

From that article I’m not sure what Noam Chomsky is recommending. It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.

On being elected, Zelensky had the leader of the opposition out under house arrest. Corbyn beware of Starmsky!

Once again catching up on the radio news on the way home – it’s horrifying what’s happening and how the Russians are behaving. :(

Show me a person that hasn’t turned a blind eye to at least one thing that they found morally wrong in the past, and I’ll show you a liar…

Your point?

No evidence that he found it morally wrong. Which is the point.

it’s horrifying what’s happening and how the Russians are behaving. 🙁

Residents of Grozny and Aleppo will not be surprised.

Thanks for the replies SK and MB.

It will be about turning the lights off rather than creating Chernobyl V2.0… You can’t hack something like a Nuclear Power station remotely to turn the power off, you need to have physical control of it yourself.

I’m not commenting on their motivation for taking key infrastructure (that should be pretty obvious) but rather answering the questions asked.

As for hacking, I wouldn’t be too sure about that, Stuxnet was tailored for nuclear processing and it’s not unrealistic to think similar couldn’t be made for Ukraine’s newer plants, the older ones will probably be stuffed full of relays.

From that article I’m not sure what Noam Chomsky is recommending. It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.

I’m not really sure either other than it’s all the US’s fault, Ukraine shouldn’t have been allowed to westernise, Russia is at fault and Ukraine is a sovereign nation. It just seems like a load of contradictions that don’t seem to make sense or offer any answers when taken as whole.

best demand Stop the War!

I get that, but let’s say NATO withdrew from the Baltic and Poland, and we can see that given that invitation Putin will advance and invade those states under some false narrative (because he’s demonstrated time and again it’s what he’ll do), and the next thing you know Putin’s saying “Hey, NATO is still at my border…” How far back do you retreat before NATO is no longer on the border? Romania? Hungray? East Germany? How many independent states do we throw under a bus to stop him threatening to nuke us all?

I’m glad we live in country where Corbyn, Chomsky and Abbott can protest and write and speak to Stop the War, they can’t do that in Russia.

It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.

I’m all up for appeasement, if it means the RF border stays where it is, unless the people in neighbouring states choose to join the RF without “liberating” military intervention. But anyone who thinks that invasions would stop, rather than increase, if we tell Eastern European countries they are out on their own, needs to think again.

My concerns right now (after the people of Ukraine) are actually for the people of Russia. Putin is about to fight a war behind his own lines, and anyone in Russia prepared to stand up to him is in serious danger. Those against his (don’t call it a) war are in serious risk, and the bravery of those openly speaking out is unimaginable from the relative safety of a western country.

The problem that all of these analysis never address is

1. It assumes Putin will make a rational decision to that of a similar western leader and that withdrawal of NATO from surrounding states will achieve some sort of detent or peace because it mistakenly asserts that what Putin wants to not have a threatening force on his border when in reality it’s a zero sum game to him and he will invade as he will perceive it as weakness. He wins; you loose, if that hasn’t been clear before, surely it bloody well should be by now (do we have to make another list of all the countries he done this to over the years, again?)

2. this analysis offers no alternative to the states that have joined, other than to be pawns in a game of “Please let’s not be beastly to Putin”

I normally agree with Chomsky, but I think the NATO encroachment argument is a duff one, and is being used just to make anti-Imperialist attack’s on the US. By all means make anti Imperialist attacks on the US, God knows they deserves critism, this isn’t a sound one though.

Fundamentally i think people misunderstand NATO.
useful – can understand why former USSR countries want to join. also sense Putin knows NATO is limited and is taking a gamble on stealing Ukraine without consequence if he doesnt attack NATO countries

It is regrettable that many Western commentators repeated Putin’s narrative that the problem came from an aggressive NATO expansion aimed at encircling Russia.

Time for a reset of narratives. Here are some simple insights, informed by our work on the game theory of alliances. ? pic.twitter.com/8qtNk7s4L9

— Lionel Page (@page_eco) February 25, 2022

Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.

Whilst things might change with the Russian public, apathy is so firmly entrenched that it isn’t going to happen overnight and when it does, the crackdown could be utterly ferocious.

Apathy is the wrong word. Knowing that expressing political opinions, or simply reporting the news, will ruin your life, and the lives of everyone around you, at best… and possibly the end of your lives) well that keeps people quiet. It’s not apathy. It’s terrifying paralysing fear.

The programme is well worth watching though. Note that the situation for independent news is even worse than when that programme was wrapped up for broadcast only a week or so ago. Much worse.

And the Russian “federation” by the looks of things.

Only one of them is doing it by invading countries that don’t want them though.

it is NATO that is seeking to expand

I am also horrified at the current scenes of NATO tanks rolling into countries to depose their leaders and occupy their territory.