Ukraine

Meanwhile, John Terry expresses his solidarity with the people of Ukraine.

Oh… no… hang on a minute… expresses his solidarity with Russian Oligarch and friend of Vladimir Putin

The Best ??? @ChelseaFC pic.twitter.com/L7PGR4Y46U

— John Terry (@JohnTerry26) March 3, 2022

Harsh on individual athletes but the right decision.

Which they only came to after many other athletes and federations refused to compete if Russian or Belarusian were allowed to compete.

Apparently banning them was ‘impossible’ yesterday but entirely possible today.

Bit of a glimpse inside a captured bit of kit, looking pretty tired.

Reddit Post

: it’s stuck there, not going anywhere and using fuel and food. I imagine the Russian’s are cold and not getting much sleep.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Napoleon Bonaparte

I think Javelin missiles have a range of 2 to 3 miles, which means that the Russians have to guard the entire length of the convoy out to several miles on each side to stop Ukrainian special forces from just sitting there taking potshots. Morale among the Russians must be utterly rock bottom knowing they’re just sitting ducks.

Attempt at self recovery got abandoned. That mud looks horrific.

#Ukraine: A pretty comical situation where 2 Russian T-72B3 tanks and BTR-82A APC got stuck in the mud, alternately trying to pull each other out, and were all abandoned by the Russian forces and then captured by Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/08HR78XJs5

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 3, 2022

Now the Russians are just stuck on the Ukranian equivalent of the M4 in their own traffic jams.

Probably blaming those new cycle lanes for causing delays.

‘re the pic of those troops marching with the keyboards,

Looks like that Russian soldier managed to break in to that electronics shop after all…

I’m sure this has been touched on, but there is a massive gulf of understanding between Russia and the west over military aspirations.  We view NATO as a defensive alliance and it is. For us, it is inconceivable that we would ever invade Russia.  Many in Russia don’t believe that and do think we might.

I was a cold war warrior in the British Army of the Rhine during two postings one in the 1980s and one in the 90s.  In the 80s I worked in a large ammunition depot in the middle of BAOR where we were crashed out of our barracks regularly in the middle of the night.  We would outload the depot to dispersed field storage sites in the German countryside and await the Russian hordes coming over the inner German border.  We genuinely didn’t know if it was an exercise or real until we could see if the fork lifts were loading our trucks with pallets of real ammo or ‘simmo’ (pallets of ammo boxes weighted with stones).

At our depot we stored ‘cheeses’ 125Kg barrel shaped TNT demolition charges. Every German autobahn and bridge anywhere near the border was was built with voids to accept these as pre-prepared demolition charges.  We had millions of anti tank ‘barmines’ to be laid by Royal Engineer ploughs across the line of advance. We also stored the main missile assemblies for Lance tactical nukes to be fired by 50 missile regiment Royal Artillery.  The nuclear warheads were stored a few miles away in an American depot, where they also stored nuclear 8 inch howitzer shells.

The strategy, briefed even down to private soldiers and NCOs was that we would delay the Russians conventionally until they began to overwhelm us with numbers, then we would start chucking ‘low yield’ battlefield tactical nukes at them.  They would reciprocate with nuclear artillery and SCUD missiles and if the invasion wasn’t stopped, then ICBM Armageddon.  It amazes me now how we just accepted this.

NATO strategy was 100% defensive, predicated on a Soviet charge into Germany.  It only became clear after the break up of the USSR that they didn’t really grasp that.  Many in the Soviet hierarchy genuinely believed that we – the West had territorial ambitions for Russia.  I see some of that mindset still exists.  If you’ve ever seen the TV series ‘Deutschland 83’ it captures the spirit of the times and the mutual mistrust/misjudged motives perfectly.

I’m a thick ex-squaddie not a politician so don’t know how, but we do need to work at bridging that gulf in understanding. And we perhaps need to tread a little carefully with NATO expansion.  It might seem obvious to us that somewhere like Estonia has only joined NATO because it is shit scared of a bullying neighbour – but the Russians genuinely do not see it like that.

The comments in the JT tweet just show how myopic we are. Makes my blood boil.

Not really anything to do with Ukraine, but a clear example of why it’s best to avoid having direct dealings with the Russian Kleptocracy:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/motorsport/formula-one/formula-1-news-2022-dmitry-mazepin-threatened-to-pull-funding-from-haas-f1-team-drive-to-survive-slower-car-nikita-mazepin-guenther-steiner/news-story/c72696d6899fefc1b06e7c2bc32aa799

Love the photos above showing the stuck tank and APC, desperately trying to use logs to get through a bog.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Napoleon Bonaparte

Well, he’d know all about that, having tried to invade Russia during the winter, a mistake Hitler also made.

Tenacious, the Battle of Techno House will be remembered forever.

‘re the pic of those troops marching with the keyboards,

Looks like that Russian soldier managed to break in to that electronics shop after all…

I remember Reagan realising what you are saying relapsed maldorian, when he had the opening talks with Gorbachev, and subsequently began to tone down the rhetoric.

Just because the cold war is…ahem…’over’, doesn’t mean that that mind set doesn’t still exist in Russia.

^^^^ Excellent post.

It probably didn’t help that the leader of the free world during the 80’s was actively creating a narrative of Good Vs Evil. Reagan called the Soviets an “Evil Empire”. He genuinely thought that the Russians were evil.

Its a completely bonkers narrative really but it served his political ideology perfectly and led to a huge increase in tensions in the 80’s before things gradually settled down.

I joined in ’96 and the legacy of BAOR was still there, although we were British Forces Germany (BFG) at that time. The regular CFE inspections with delegates of Russians wandering around the base making sure we weren’t hiding bits of undeclared kit, having make covers for notice boards/orders boards. All the more senior bods in the unit had lived through what @blokeupthroad described and would regale us crowbags with stories of preparing to defend the Fulder Gap.

I had a little experience of it, but I was a kid growing up on military bases all over germany; getting to watch firepower demos and hang around the tank park with my dad, but I never understood the significance of it all or where he’d gone when I got up in the morning for school and he’d disappeared on another readiness drill.

Bit of a glimpse inside a captured bit of kit, looking pretty tired.

Christ, that looks like a 1970’s barn-find! Talk about decrepit.

The standoff at Pristina Airport is a good example of the longstanding distrust between East & West, even on a peacekeeping mission.

I remember Reagan realising what you are saying relapsed maldorian, when he had the opening talks with Gorbachev, and subsequently began to tone down the rhetoric.

Just because the cold war is…ahem…’over’, doesn’t mean that that mind set doesn’t still exist in Russia.

There seems to be conflicting information regarding how operational the Ukrainian air force is.
However, I’d have thought it was also pretty vulnerable to shoulder mounted RPG attacks?

Just as a point of order:

RPGs are not anti aircraft weapons. They are an unguided “Hittile”, ie they need to hit something for the impact fuse to explode. Basically a big rifle grenade with a rocket motor.

They were successfully used in Iraq against slow moving helicopters – draw in an Apache to an incident, then fire 10 RPGs at it whilst its hovering, hoping one hits.

A missile (clue is in the name) is designed to MISS, not HIT. They are guided by a seeker head, either IR or RADAR. The shoulder launched stuff is generally IR – the seeker head searches out the heat signature of the engine, and flies up to the aircraft.

When it gets close, a very small charge explodes. stacked around the charge is a ring of metal rods, designed to blow out as a big cutting disk, taking out an engine, cutting the fuselage in half, etc.

The Russian Convoy does have embedded Tracked vehicles mounted with Anti A/c batteries.

Attempt at self recovery got abandoned. That mud looks horrific.

There are plenty of videos on line of Ukrainians recovering logging equipment/tractors/etc from waist deep mud pits.
I can imagine poorly trained Russian conscripts thinking their vehicles are invincible before getting totally bogged as soon as they leave the road.

I went to the Reddit thread with the guy showing how crappy the Russian tank is, then I read down and learned that blyat means ‘****’. Then I re-watched the video and had a good chuckle. ‘Blyaty blyat’ crops up a few times.

Just because the cold war is…ahem…’over’, doesn’t mean that that mind set doesn’t still exist in Russia.

Just because the cold war is…ahem…’over’, doesn’t mean that that mind set doesn’t still exist in USA. Go to the right parts of the US and there’s plenty who will tell you that Russia invading the US is still the real threat.

Interesting edition of Digital Planet this week – re: Ukrainian tech sector and possible impending brain drain due to conflict.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1ltg

Reagan called the Soviets an “Evil Empire”. He genuinely thought that the Russians were evil.

And yet with Thatcher and Gorbachev he helped usher in a relatively peaceful period with Russia, the collapse of the USSR, the reunification of Germany, etc. Sadly it all turned to shit again under Yeltsin and has been going downhill eversince.

Oh and I’m no apologist for either Reagan or Thatcher.

Bit of a glimpse inside a captured bit of kit, looking pretty tired.

I would think the initial assault would be bearing the brunt of the Ukrainian defence. So maybe putin is using older gear knowing its going to likely get knocked out.

They would to stuff wet rags up the end of the launcher to increase the range so that when it exceeds the propellent burn time the warhead would self-destruct thuse making it an airburst.

They’d then use that tactic to force aircraft to climb or move into to vulnerable position or altitude, then engage with a MANPAD. Tastefully called a SAMbush, they downed Flipper 75 a US Chinook in Afghanistan using this method.

They were successfully used in Iraq against slow moving helicopters – draw in an Apache to an incident, then fire 10 RPGs at it whilst its hovering, hoping one hits.

but we do need to work at bridging that gulf in understanding

Generally they try to do this with international trade and co-operation. This is explicitly why the EU and its precursors were set up. If you work with people from other countries, you trade with them, you travel there, eventually you’ll start to see them as neighbours not foreigners. This has happened in empires throughout history e.g. Pax Romana and only goes wrong when central authority starts to crumble and local megalomaniacs start to gain power.

The EU is different in this case because it hasn’t started with military conquest, people have voluntarily signed up to it and continue to do so because it looks like a good deal.

Highly possible, I can’t imagine on a sliding scale that kit from conscripts units is particularly well maintained on a good day, and they’re most likely to be given the aging gear. Unit commanders that are regular volunteers would probably make a good case priority on the ‘best’ kit.

I would think the initial assault would be bearing the brunt of the Ukrainian defence. So maybe putin is using older gear knowing its going to likely get knocked out.

I would think the initial assault would be bearing the brunt of the Ukrainian defence.

I don’t think the RF forces weren’t expecting to have any sort of shooting war at all. Plus sending in your “reserve” vehicles and troops for the initial invasion makes no sense if you are expecting to have to shoot your way in.

My military knowledge extends to occasionally lurking on the Airfix thread but I do wonder if this conflict is the swan song for the tank. Its been mythologised for so long but it’s beginning to look slightly medieval (both visually and in terms of practicality). Its the modern day equivalent of the moment when knights armour became too heavy for horses to carry them.

For years we’ve seen too much footage tanks knocking out an opposition ‘vintage’ tank from a couple of miles whilst shrugging off rpg rounds left over from the 80’s. I bet coalition forces felt fairly well protected sat in their tanks in the deserts of the middle east.

I bet those sitting in the Russian tanks in Ukraine, even the more modern ones, are bricking it.

A missile (clue is in the name) is designed to MISS, not HIT. .

Not quite.

“from Latin: missilis, from mittere to send”

Its been mythologised for so long but it’s beginning to look slightly medieval (both visually and in terms of practicality)

I really think it’d have been a different story if this had all happened 3 months later.

A missile (clue is in the name) is designed to MISS, not HIT. .

…. and the Javelin is a missile and it’s definitely designed to HIT

I bet those sitting in the Russian tanks in Ukraine, even the more modern ones, are bricking it.

Given the choice of being in a Russian tank and being a Ukranian soldier carrying a Javelin I definitely know which I’d rather be!!

Can anyone add substance to a pal’s claim that Russia only have 9 (now 7) days of arsenal left ? I heard something along those lines on the radio but thought it was Ukraine who had limited supplies (excluding supplies from the West).

but Russia has just spent a huge chunk of GDP upgrading their military and I suspect they plan to use it. A lot.

His theory was that Russian army chiefs had sold off massive weapon stocks to line their own pockets, so Putin thinks they had more than they actually do have.

@dantsw13 The missile/hitile thing is a bit old hat. Many guided missiles have impact as well as proximity fuzes and are designed to actually hit their target but to still be able to cause damage if they miss and function nearby.  What you describe has historically been a thing with older SAAM systems, but more modern ones are more than capable of hitting the target.  Until recently anti armour guided missiles had to physically hit the target for their HEAT or tandem warheads to penetrate the armour so definitely hitiles!.  More recently improved technology has allowed top attack systems where the warhead will function above an armoured vehicle and direct an explosively forged penetrator down into the thinner top armour.

 but I do wonder if this conflict is the swan song for the tank.

I think it makes a huge difference how they’re used with infantry. Imagine you’re in a boxing ring and your opponent is a huge bruiser of a fella, one punch and you’re toast. That’s a tank with infantry. Now imagine you put a blindfold on him and ear plugs in…That’s a tank without infantry.  If he connects with you, you’re still going to hit the floor…but he’s flailing and stumbling around and you can just wear him down.

Tanks are still important, but they’re largely blind and deaf, especially in the sort of Urban fighting this is going to soon turn into

It is just an entirely weird situation, the invasion force is what it is, with rumours of badly equipped and trained soldiers, equipment that is failing and so on, it just looks like it really counted on the Ukrainians not wanting to fight Russian soldiers, and stand down, the last few days are the opposite, now they are getting bogged down and it’s still the invasion element, it’s just properly mental, the days of quantity having a quality all of its own isn’t really a viable thing for an invasion, where you need both!

The next phase is the worry, will Putin and his ego allow this to go the same way, or is he going to do something unthinkable next to try and kill the Ukrainian spirit, i just don’t see this getting better and as much as Ukrainian fighting spirit can work on the convoy and the urban fights, if Putin did carry out ‘precision’ bombing what would be the outcome then?

Christ, that looks like a 1970’s barn-find! Talk about decrepit.

There’s a comment in a book by an ex-RAF pilot talking about how they trained against Cold War aircraft (think MiG-21 era) and we’re all terrified of the real thing.

As the Cold War came to an end and Russian aircraft began to be invited to UK airshows, they got the chance to look into the cockpit and were staggered by how basic it all was. The Russians were scared that their pilots might try to defect so they had one fixed radio frequency that command could monitor all the time.

There’s a Twitter thread about some of those stuck vehicles saying that they clearly haven’t been maintained or moved in ages.

I do wonder if this conflict is the swan song for the tank.

Main battle tank may well be, bit like WWII was the last major conflict really big battleships were in their element, by Korea and later as air power advanced and missile systems improved you no longer needed a floating artillery battery, in fact it became sitting duck.

Has the page count for this thread magically reset?

I wonder how the Ukranian allies are going to get supplies/weapons into the country? I don’t think they can air-drop them without inviting air combat and subsequent escalation, can they? Ukraine could pick them up at the border by road, given that side of the country is still open. But the convoys could then easily be picked off by air.

I wonder if they could spread the supplies all over the long western borders and ask civillians to pick them up. You could get anyone with a car to do this and have enough decoys to make it impossible to intercept?

but Russia has just spent a huge chunk of GDP upgrading their military and I suspect they plan to use it.

I read that for a country of its size and an armed forces of its size military spending is rather paltry.

The next phase is the worry, will Putin and his ego allow this to go the same way, or is he going to do something unthinkable next to try and kill the Ukrainian spirit

I suspect he might be satisfied with occupying the Black Sea coast for now.