Ukraine

That pic up there:

Purple hair = probably not a Nazi.

If we look at Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.

There are people starving to death on mass in North Korea and the majority of the population lives in terrible poverty, they’re one bad harvest from collapse. The Leadership can only control this through brutality.

As for Russia, or the USSR, look at the reasons why it fell? The people demanded Perestroika – reform and Glasnost – openness, they wanted the sort of lives that people on the other side of the curtain had, that couldn’t be done as an isolated Nation, even one as huge as the USSR, and their War in Afghanistan, because Russians could see that the Red Army was not only ‘the goodies’ but not the invincible force they’d been lead to believe it was all over. They saw the poverty they suffered at home to maintain the Cold War and the War in Afghanistan. Putin might think he owns Domestic Media, but he can’t control the global media when any kid with a simple browser VPN can access Twitter.

This is more like the end of the Cold War than the start of a new one.

Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.

Not really. The reason communism ended was basically economic. The USSR ran out of money. It was doing whatever it could to get hold of $ (or any decent foreign currency).

If you think back to the queues outside the shops, the many year wait for Ladas and so on, that will give you a pretty good idea of how relatively unstable the Soviet economy was in its last days. That really wasn’t propaganda, it was daily reality for many millions of Soviet citizens.

the Soviet Union begat a Russian Federation with a growing pile of $66 billion in external debt and with barely a few billion dollars in net gold and foreign exchange reserves.[22]

Quoted from Wikipedia (I know!)

Saw a nice bit of trolling from the Ukraine Tax authorities who stated that farmers who capture russian armoured vehicles don’t need to declare them on their annual tax returns!

I’m skeptical of these stories about Russians refusing to fight, but even if they’re not in open mutiny, I’m pretty sure their grandparents would be ashamed of the lack of effort they seem to be putting in.

⚡️Russian troops in Crimea refuse to take part in Ukraine invasion.

The Center for Defense Strategies, citing their sources in the marine personnel in Crimea, says members of Russia’s 810th Detached Marine Brigade are in a “demoralized state."

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 2, 2022

Not really. The reason communism ended was basically economic. The USSR ran out of money. It was doing whatever it could to get hold of $ (or any decent foreign currency).

And what are the current sanctions doing to the Russian economy?

I’m skeptical of these stories about Russians refusing to fight, but even if they’re not in open mutiny, I’m pretty sure their grandparents would be ashamed of the lack of effort they seem to be putting in.

Really? I’m sure some of their grandparents would be mighty proud of teenage boys who say, “hang on a minute, why are we fighting our next door neighbours, people who 30 years ago were part of our soviet union, who have not attacked us”. Certainly I’d be proud of my 18 yr old if he was conscripted into the British Army, marched over to Ireland to take back Dublin and turned round and said “no”.

“Putin might think he owns Domestic Media, but he can’t control the global media when any kid with a simple browser VPN can access Twitter.”

Unfortunately a lot of Russians aren’t bothering, apathy having set in so deeply. That could change but how quickly? Probably not quick enough for the Ukranians.

If I were a Russian, young or not I might be thinking of getting out before that new iron curtain gets delivered by Amazon (or the Russian / Chinese equivalent). I wouldn’t take my erm…’fredom of movement’ for granted.

Edit:

A passport could easily become a privilege for the next generation of Russians.

changing the text of roadsigns to “Russians F*ck Off” is Clarkson level genius.

I like one of the other examples where they had changed all the placenames to The Hague.

And what are the current sanctions doing to the Russian economy?

A rhetorical question?

I’m in no doubt that sanctions are having a real impact. We’ll have to await the stock market opening to see some true damage. But, the value of the rouble, the withdrawal of major foreign firms from Russia and several ‘anecdotes’ on here from those with friends and relatives in Russia shows there is a pretty significant impact already.

Is there another aspect I’m missing?

Google? What are you doing?

There are reports of the Russians using google maps with pins/tags for navigation and even targeting.
It does seem somewhat bizarre especially the making it public but I can see why Google have gone for the simple disable the lot.
They had already turned the traffic/how busy somewhere is off a few days back in Ukraine since that could have been useful for Russian attacks.

One example, but if you search ‘Russian POW’ on twitter there are dozens more. Many if not most of them are shockingly young and seemingly clueless as to why they are there, or even where they are!

Very young Russian Soldier in tears after being captured by Ukraine forces. POW pic.twitter.com/oVHElNQ1DB

— Steve Anderson (@stan931) February 28, 2022

the Roman Abramovich thing, does raise a few questions, not seeing it coming (the invasion) and as surprised as everyone else? not told (perhaps not as chummy as first thought) ? told not to give the game away (I’ll pay you back later) by selling off assets ?

The VDV Suicide Corp pic.twitter.com/helqmwLInP

— Curve (@Curve124) March 2, 2022

Bingo… It just takes patience and unrelenting dedication to the cause. Something not being shown right now with oil and gas still leaving Russia to the west sadly!

Power networks quite often don’t work if you turn off all the generators to prove a point. Killing off NS2 was a start but I suspect only a temporary measure. Not even sure that Europe could maintain electricity supply without Russian gas, and that doesn’t consider domestic heating or cooking use.

I agree that we need to wean ourselves off Russian fossil fuels but it needs planning. Arguably it *needed* planning about twenty years ago but that required thinking ahead and spending money.

They’ve just been discussing the levels of corruption and pocket-lining by Vlad and his Oligarch mates on Five Live.

It makes Boris and chums and their dodgy PPE contracts look like low-level shoplifters

An opposition party (when they existed) looked into the finances of the Sochi Olympics. The total cost of hosting it was £55 billion. They worked out that around 60% of that ‘went missing’ during the construction and hosting and was unaccounted for 😳

They’re also going into the details of the impact of sanctions. It’s pretty crippling, by the sounds of it for the average person. There are now 135-140 roubles to the dollar. Inflation is 30%.

One of those things you don’t think about is something like shipping. It’s no use having stuff to sell if you can’t shift it. They’re saying that no commercial shipping companies will now touch Russia with a barge pole. So they may have tanks full of oil and natural gas but its not going anywhere.

Sanctions biting already

Arkady Volozh, the tech entrepreneur behind Yandex—the Russian equivalent to search engines like Google and Yahoo—has seen the value of his stake in Russia’s top tech giant fall by over 60% since last Thursday https://t.co/HoN8ridgAk

— Forbes (@Forbes) March 2, 2022

Spent the last few days emailing thousands of academics in Russia. Today, I'm publishing one of the replies I've gotten as a blog post (in English and in Russian, with the author's permission). Please read it to understand what's going on inside Russia. https://t.co/KFYrzOf5qe

— Tatyana Deryugina ?? ?? (@TDeryugina) March 2, 2022

“I want to assure you that I am very upset by what’s going on. I recently had a political discussion at work and learned the positions of some of my colleagues. Slightly less than half (me included) share your view, a few others (one of whom has relatives in Donetsk) think that Ukraine didn’t carry out the Minsk agreement and was shelling Donbas, as a result of which Ukraine provoked Putin to start all this and to end nationalism and genocide of residents of that region (they are still against military intervention, but think they would have started sooner or later regardless). One colleague thinks that, like Kosovo, Crimea was annexed legitimately (the region decided for itself) and DPR and LPR should follow its example, and a military operation will be helpful. And a few colleagues have communist viewpoints and think that Russians in Ukraine were being oppressed, that Ukraine wanted to be a threat to Russia and place weapons aimed at the Russian Federation in the East of the country (including in Crimea). They think that, sooner or later, Ukraine, together with Western countries, would have started an aggression against Russia and so in their view the destruction of the Russian economy because of this war is better than the destruction of Russia itself if it were to take no action with respect to Crimea and Donbas. And so they are expecting that Russia will gain control of Ukraine as a result of what’s going on now, after which it will install a puppet government or even try to annex the country or part of it.

I feel very uncomfortable that I am telling you other people’s personal views, and I ask you not to refer directly to what I said, but I hope that this somehow helps us understand the situation. Here is also my view as to why the Russian people are not protesting en masse:

Negative influence of the USSR: beginning with the immigration after 1917 and Stalinist purges and ending with the destruction of the will to live freely to the falling apart of the country. People didn’t live normally and so don’t want to live normally now, those who protest are mostly very young.
A non-trivial share of the people are idiots. They can’t or, for many reasons, don’t want to absorb non-one-sided information and just want to be “outside of politics”. And the most accessible information is, sadly, propaganda.
Propaganda is literally EVERYWHERE. On TV it reaches absurd proportions, and besides that special bot farms write a huge number of online comments, forming a false public opinion and swaying those who are uncertain to their side.
A huge army of siloviki (strongmen). Ukraine’s Maidan could happen because resistance [against the protestors] was not comparable to that of Russia and Belorussia. The Russian government has a huge horde of policemen and Rosgvardiya [National Guard of Russia] who get paid decent money just for brutally beating people who simply show up to a demonstration (and actually get pleasure out of doing so because they are idealistic and see enemies in those who show up). Then they imprison the people for 30 days and then create problems for them in their studies or work. And any resistance leads to a huge prison sentence. I’m not even mentioning, that people can be jailed for several years for tweets or social media posts (this is not an exaggeration!)
I hope this helps you understand the situation. I apologize for any colleagues and countrymen who may be responding to your email negatively.

PS I ask you to not group the nation of Russia together with Putin and his followers, but of course I understand all the aggression and hate toward us, those who act this way have their reasons…”

I agree that we need to wean ourselves off Russian fossil fuels but it needs planning. Arguably it *needed* planning about twenty years ago but that required thinking ahead and spending money.

we’ve known for about 40 years we need to wean ourselves of fossil fuels……but we’ve allowed the fossil fuel companies and petrostates to block and divert attempts to do so.

⚡️Russian parliament proposes imprisonment for spreading “fake news” about the war.

Writing about Russia’s war against Ukraine can lead to up to 15 years in prison.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 2, 2022

@thols2, that’s a useful but depressing insight into Russian public mindset

Purple hair = probably not a Nazi.

It could be a clever disguise, to throw us gullible Westerners off the scent – you know how devious they can be…

mattoutandabout – you are probably correct regarding the donations.
Our donations are from the WI (I’m a member). There is a local Ukranian family driving out to Poland tonight. The have asked for these specific things.

I agree funds are much better. However how do we know the money will get to the correct place, unless its a charity such as the ‘Red Cross’ for example.

Apologies if its already been posted, but came across this and seems to reinforce a lot of what’s been discussed here

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

I suppose there are two ways to read that,

1. the russians are bluffing and thier military is not half as capable as they would have us belive.

Or, 2, they are just testing the waters with the Ukraine campaign with older equipment, conscript troops, etc.

A difficult gamble to make as a layman. Presumably EU countries/governments will have a far better idea of the truth, but they won’t, and shouldn’t make that public, I don’t think.

I agree funds are much better. However how do we know the money will get to the correct place, unless its a charity such as the ‘Red Cross’ for example.

I was advised by my Ukrainian colleague to donate here:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

I’m going to try it later today after work.

I’m more amazed at leaving a vehicle full of ATGMs just sitting there. Even if the vehicle has been disabled, it’s pretty likely the Ukrainians will be able to repurpose the missiles.

I wonder if the Russian has installed a tracking device in order for them to bring it back to the “hives”.

One example, but if you search ‘Russian POW’ on twitter there are dozens more. Many if not most of them are shockingly young and seemingly clueless as to why they are there, or even where they are!

I don’t think it is a good idea to humiliate the “Russian POW” in that way. Rather perhaps speak to them nicely with a cup of tea and turn them instead by speaking a bit of sense into them. Then let them go home like driving them back to their unit to spread the words.

That photo of Arkady Volozh looks like a completely broken man, with little to look forward to except the loss of everything he has.

Which would place him on a level footing with the rest of the Russian people.

Just thinking about it, what are Russians in Ukraine doing in the main: fleeing west with other evacuees, fleeing east/north through potentially the fighting back into Russia/Belarus or staying put?

@Bunnyhop

https://www.unhcr.org/uk/

we’ve known for about 40 years we need to wean ourselves of fossil fuels……but we’ve allowed the fossil fuel companies and petrostates to block and divert attempts to do so.

The truth is they haven’t manged to stop it (yet).

UK renewable energy generation has increased from 1.8 GW average in 2012 to around 10 GW average today. That is a five fold increase!

Last year 40% of our energy was generated from fossil fuels with the other 60% from low-carbon fuels (renewables 25%, biomass 3%, nuclear, 17%…). Renewables are on-track to roughly double by the end of this decade (from around 25% to around 50%). In that scenario, fossil fuels will account for less than 20% of generation. We are not going to be free of fossil fuels by then, but the current reserves will be stretched much further and the demand/price will be much lower.

https://grid.iamkate.com/

Keep in mind that the recent strike prices for off-shore wind and solar were less than half the cost of gas generation prior to this winters energy crisis and around 4 times less expensive now.

A similar story is unfolding in most developed countries

“A Seed grows with no sound but a tree falls with huge noise.”

One example, but if you search ‘Russian POW’ on twitter

One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW’s. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.

told not to give the game away (I’ll pay you back later) by selling off assets ?

Or that they didnt think the response would be so severe. Even now its giving plenty of time to extract the cash before it gets locked down.
Plus I am not sure they are chums as such more a feudal lord and king relationship where they would happily sacrifice each other for personal gain.

1. the russians are bluffing and thier military is not half as capable as they would have us belive.

There has been a suggestion for some time that Russian military equipment isn’t as good as it wants the rest of the world to think it is. It’s all fine and dandy dropping bombs on people when backing up an autocratic government, like Syria, but they were driven out of Afghanistan, just like we were in the 19th Century, and like the Americans were more recently.

Their Hind helicopter gunships were intimidating, but in reality highly vulnerable to a bloke sitting on a mountain-side with a knock-off AK-47 shooting the pilot through the unarmoured windshield glass!

They haven’t fought an armoured war in decades, and things have moved on a bit from fighting Nazis in Stalingrad with T-38 tanks able to cope with terribly cold conditions, that caused the German machinery to freeze solid.

One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW’s. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.

Not quite as cut and dried as that.  It only applies to the state or detaining power.  I would imagine some of the twitter images fall foul of that if taken by the Ukrainian military, but probably not if the images were taken by Ukrainian civilians.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2003/mar/28/broadcasting.Iraqandthemedia2

One of the Geneva convention rules is to not share images of POW’s. Sharing their picture online can be considered a war crime.

Not quite, you cannot parade them as an act of public curiosity.

The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circum- stances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:
“… prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.”
This prohibition is not new. Article 2, paragraph 2 of the 1929 Geneva Prisoners of War Convention used almost identical language:
“[Prisoners of war] shall at all times be humanely treated and protected, particularly against acts of violence, from insults and from public curiosity.”
2
According to Flory, writing during World War II about the nego-
tiations which resulted in the 1929 Convention, it was:
“a general principle, frequently affirmed… that prisoners must be
treated with humanity…

Ukraine Combat Medical Project

This is being run by a friend of mine.

Our goal is to raise as much money as possible in order to buy pre-hospital trauma care equipment for primarily the Ukrainian fighters but also to help treat the civilians who have been caught up in the violence.

The plan is to make the first delivery as soon as possible and provision has already been made for the first aid convoy to travel from the UK to the Ukraine.

Please help..

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/ukraine-combat-medical-project

but in reality highly vulnerable to a bloke sitting on a mountain-side with a knock-off AK-47 shooting the pilot through the unarmoured windshield glass!

I thought they were pretty well armoured as in able to shrug off a .5 cal. Hence why the USA ended up sending Stingers to counter them.

The good old days in the USSR….

The sanctions need time to bite properly, we’ll see this happen in several ways over the coming days and weeks. For example, Russian airlines are cut off from the EU and additionally maintenance will be an issue given that the supply of parts for Russian operated western civilian aircraft will be subject to sanction too.

Russia will be reliant upon foreign currency reserves to prop up the rouble for a while, but this obviously won’t last forever. Less hard cash floating around the economy will mean that those further down Putin’s food chain will be cut off, while those nearer the top will be fighting over an ever diminishing largesse. We are also likely to see and hear much less from the individuals and media outlets that have been open admirers of Putin and Russia in the recent past too.

Ways round the sanctions will also take time to emerge, but I am sure folk are working on it.