Ukraine

The short answer is many people in Lincolnshire would welcome Ukrainians at this time, given what is happening. I owuld like to think most would.

The longer nuanced answer is that the county is one that has been left behind in many ways

Brilliantly put – to put my previously flippant answer in context, was brought up in the Fens and covered the area for work in 2016-20, which made the migrant worker/Brexit conversations interesting as I dealt with landlords and agents.

Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want Brexit or vote for it. They got Brexit.
Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want a Tory government or vote for it. They got a Tory government.

Good luck to the young people in deposing a brutal dictatorship

Can someone please pop round and put an extra Valium in Binners’ coffee?!?! I’m genuinely worried for him…

Seriously though… I’m the most anti Brexit, Pro EU person around still, and so anti the current Tory Govt that they sicken me to the stomach… You know what happens in democracies though (even pseudo ones, such as ours is currently)…? After a period of time, opinions sway back the other way… We will, in my lifetime, especially after what is going on in Ukraine right now, be fighting to be a member of the EU again I guarantee it. Johnson will be seen for what he is at some point too (albeit too late to really do anything about the damage he has caused), and when those things happen, the staunch Brexiteer right wing Johnson apologists will be up in arms complaining that the “leftists always get their way”…

“You think commenting that people never forget boundaries imposed on them is banal?”

No, but submitting that comment to the forum without any context is.

I’m enjoying the guessing game though, there’s obviously something relevant you want to say about Ireland and Ukraine but perhaps you felt the need to fish for an argument first.

Go on, you’ve got me in the cross hairs of enlightenment, hit me with the truth…

This helps to explain why Evangelical Republicans in America are so keen on Putin. It’s difficult to see, though, how they can justify his invasion of another Christian country.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/russia-ukraine-crisis-complicates-american-white-evangelicals-love-putin-n1290442

Well this has all gone a bit surreal

Anyhoo, we had a power cut this morning for about 45 mins, but when it happened , just for a second, I did half seriously think to myself “He hasn’t, has he?”

put an extra Valium in Binners’ coffee?!?!

I presume Binners point is that modern day demographics mean that young people do not drive the politics in countries like ours…. never mind in Russia. I can’t disagree with him as regards current UK politics at all… but the situation in Russia is not the same as here, and I share the hope others have in the young of Russia… despite everything stacked against them… accepting that is just a hope, a wish, a longing… and I’m desperately clinging to anything that helps give strength to that hope. Mapping UK democracy demographics onto resistance, rebellion and perhaps revolution under a long standing autocratic regime isn’t useful, or really possible.

As someone with a geeky interest in Economics, I find the economic war fascinating, it shows how the evil business of money can actually be used for good. The Russian are waging a bloody war, for obvious reasons the rest of the World can’t directly intervene but our economic war will be devastating to Russian without a single shot being fired.

Bingo… It just takes patience and unrelenting dedication to the cause. Something not being shown right now with oil and gas still leaving Russia to the west sadly!

The sanctions need to be as severe as they can be to have an effect as soon as possible, and minimise civilian casualties.

There’s a reason why the CIA has financed so many overthrown dictatorships since WW2… It’s generally the cheapest and the fastest option, with least civilian casualties (or ones the financier actually care about at least)! 🤭

The SWIFT lockout is the killer blow. Putin, according to Biden, had hundreds of billions in foreign reserves to which he currently has no access. So he has seriously underpredicted the international response.

Switzerlands step off the fence possibly even more influential I would argue. Putin will have counted for Swift being knocked out you would think (or someone would have given him that information at least). Access to Swiss bank accounts being withdrawn to all Russian nationals though (these hundreds of $Bn’s aren’t in his name of course) is priceless given the context!

Seriously though… Imagine going to war and planning to finance it in a foreign currency (that of your biggest international aggressor) held in bank accounts in another country (albeit they have traditionally shown absolute neutrality, but their central location in the previous Nazi occupation of Europe will have reminded them of the occasional need to get off the fence)… This could ultimately be Putins undoing rather than military tactics!

US revises assessment and believes that Kyiv will likely be encircled within a week and fall in the next 4-6 weeks, with a longer war in Ukraine lasting 10-30 years. Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have destroyed a large Russian convoy near Bashtanka in the Mykolaiv region. Russian forces advance in the Sumy region, though do not appear to hold the city yet. Reports that paratroopers have landed in Kharkiv with another push to take the city tonight

10 to 30 years, good grief.

Go on Vlad open the stock market.
And congratulations to the Olympic committee for finding balls to kick out Russian athletic teams. OH WAIT….
Really not sure where Europe will go next a no fly zone is sadly a huge risk. But we cannot tolerate bombing like that on civil areas.

Only way out is Putin getting his cards.
It’s not even a Russia war it’s Putins, Russian people will be hurting on the economical side you have got to feel for them but they are the answer to removing Putin.

“but the situation in Russia is not the same as here, and I share the hope others have in the young of Russia… despite everything stacked against them… accepting that is just a hope, a wish, a longing… and I’m desperately clinging to anything that helps give strength to that hope.”

I think the brightest and best will just pack their bags and go somewhere else to be honest.

A lot of talk about regime change on here.

I’d love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.

They have some very talented independents going after them, Anonymous for a start. Then there must be an absolute deluge of attacks from western countries now playing Russia at its own game. I suspect relishing the chance to go after the*****.

I hope they are absolutely ripping its infrastructure apart from the inside.

I have just had a video call with a Russian friend and he is distraught at what is happening because of one man. As a company we have paused sending product to Russia for two weeks but he knows and I know that we are just buying time to closing the business.
He has two kids at university in Germany, he currently pays €900 per month each, that has effectively just gone up to €1300 per month for him. His daughter needs to renew her Visa in March, he can see them having to return very soon either because of finances or restrictions. He is very worried about anti Russian sentiment.
Everything costs more in the shops already. They expect to run out of lots of things quite quickly but most notably spare parts for vehicles and planes etc. (we did joke that they do not need as many planes now)
He seemed broken and embarrassed but realises they need to pay the price for Putin, he cannot see things improving for decades

Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want Brexit or vote for it. They got Brexit. Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want a Tory government or vote for it. They got a Tory government.

Binners – I think you are wrong about that. There are young tory voters. There are young brexiteers. They aren’t the majority but its wrong to think they are tiny minority either. There’s all sorts of things influence them – not least of which is family. Its difficult to believe that Russia’s political demographics will be that different: young, making progress in life, aware you are luckier than some, family who embrace 2020s – I think they’ll not be keen on Putin. But young, struggling to cope in russia, being told be those around you that its the west’s fault and that things were better in the past – I suspect there’s putin supporters there too.

I’d love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.

I was curiously looking at RT and Sputnik .com sites last night and any article away from the front pages was suffering a DDOS attack. Nice!

Sadly seems back to normal today.

Still, worth a laugh / huge dose of indignance if you fancy a look.

same story from a colleague; she has savings and pensions in Russian banks that are impossible to access and value dropping like a stone. She’s working in the UK, developing science to support the UK economy and wants no part of Putin’s plans, but is hurting nonetheless.

Seems like the entire literature is based on selecting on the DV.

— Jacob Montgomery (@Jacob_Montg) February 28, 2022

I think the brightest and best will just pack their bags and go somewhere else to be honest.

I think many of them already have…

Atlantic Council article from two years ago

I am no economist or military expert or nuanced politician, but what will Putin achieve with this war now.

If in another month the Russian Army has destroyed everything and occupied the whole of Ukraine, what will be left. The surviving Ukrainians will either resist at some level, or just leave.
With the Russian economy in tatters, anyone with qualifications will try and leave.

With the brain drain and falling population in both Ukraine and Russia causing a vicious circle, he would need to turn both into giant prisons, cut off from the world. No one can leave (like the Berlin/East German wall) and no internet connection to stop people seeing how good the rest of the world is living. Like North Korea.

I suspect Putin doesn’t actually care.

Russian people will be hurting on the economical side you have got to feel for them

Indeed yes and we in Germany are paying the price for Putins war too, right now. However, non of this type of “hurt” is anything like that of residents in Ukraine.

I notice that Russia is often referred to as an Oligarchy; it should be defined as a Kleptocracy –

kleptocracy
klep-ˈtä-krə-sē plural kleptocracies
Definition of kleptocracy: government by those who seek chiefly status and personal gain at the expense of the governed;: a particular government of this kind

There are alarming similarities with the convoy heading to Kyiv to that of the convoy from Germany to the Ardennes in the Blitzkrieg in 1940.

Back then the French didn’t believe it could happen (if they had, the invasion and potentially the entire war could have been avoided) but this time unfortunately there simply isn’t the firepower available (without Western intervention) to stop it.

Luckily STW users are already hardened to the effects of cyberwarfare against the forum.

PS how long until someone puts a techno (house) track based on those gun shots over that clip? Also, looting already?

I’m surprised he didn’t get a Molotov cocktail lobbed at him.

Someone has helpfully updated their Wikipedia page to account for these losses pic.twitter.com/UFKv6Kjn8q

— Al (@garratt_al) March 2, 2022

Also, looting already?

Of course, he probably hasn’t been paid for ages, and any opportunity to grab something that he likely could never afford anyway has got to be a great temptation.

Just look at opportunistic looting in America whenever there are protests that involve any form of violence.

edit: That abandoned T-80; I wonder if it ran out of fuel? Also, I wonder if the crew disabled it?

German tank crews were ordered to destroy their vehicles if they were disabled during WW2, however not all of them did. One was captured in North Africa after being abandoned, and it was returned to the U.K., where it was discovered that an unexploded anti-tank round had jammed the turret ; after the turret was lifted off, and the shell removed, it worked perfectly. And still does, at Bovington on their annual Tiger Day, when it’s driven for the public to see.

If that T-80 just needs fuel, that would be a valuable resource for the Ukrainians.

Apologies if its already been posted, but came across this and seems to reinforce a lot of what’s been discussed here

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

The young are outnumbered in Europe, in the States, in Russia and with their one child policy, China.

The post war world that we grew up with in the West was in large part shaped by the youthful energy and reforming zeal of the 60’s. They had agency in numbers then, they don’t any more.

I know not all the youth of the world are SJW’s but if the demographics were more like those of a generation or two ago we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

Sorry to be so depressing but it’s the hope that kills you. Even if Putin were to fall I don’t think the world would change that much and the most likely scenario is that we’ll be putting up a new iron curtain (made in china) sometime soon.

Honestly though Pat Robertson was dead. He was an MS-DOS version of Trump from the 80’s.

😂

Does this make Trump a Windows Vista version of himself… Full of public expectation, but bloated and full of shit, never delivered what it promised and disappeared almost as quickly as it came? 🤔

A lot of talk about regime change on here.

Serious question… Do you see another way out?

Whether it’s now, next week, next year, and however it is achieved etc… He’s threatened the world with Nuclear weapons if he doesn’t get his own way in a brutal and unprovoked attack on one of his oldest allies and neighbours!🤷🏻‍♂️

I’d love to know how intensive the cyber war is against Russia.

They have some very talented independents going after them, Anonymous for a start.

Anonymous threatened a couple of days ago that on 3rd March they will remove all cash from Russian individuals’ bank accounts, and pay it directly into a Ukrainian was support account, and urged the Russian individuals to take their money out of their bank accounts now or they will lose it all…

Take that how you will, might just be helping to pour fuel on the fire that is raging where Russians are pulling money out of banks in droves currently, but I guess we’ll find out tomorrow if they mean business!

Just look at opportunistic looting in America whenever there are protests that involve any form of violence.

This is ‘supposedly’ a well-marshalled military force. Any sign that discipline is breaking down already is either a very good sign for Ukrainians (desertions etc), or a very bad one.

@mboy – very good!!!! 😂😂😂

Ukrainians trying to win the war using Binners’ methods. Pies for peace. :)

Morally, legally, and tactically, the right approach: in essence, "Molotov cocktails or tea—it's your choice."

God bless these Ukrainians. https://t.co/TpKaBb7BYs

— George Conway ⚖️ (@gtconway3d) March 2, 2022

Does this make Trump an Windows Vista version of himself… Full of public expectation, but bloated and full of shit, never delivered what it promised and disappeared almost as quickly as it came? 🤔

Putin certainly needs the same Windows update he’s offered to political opponents and journalists.

Anonymous threatened a couple of days ago that on 3rd March they will remove all cash from Russian individuals’ bank accounts, and pay it directly into a Ukrainian was support account, and urged the Russian individuals to take their money out of their bank accounts now or they will lose it all…

I too am intrigued to see if that is a headgame or reality.

What I am not sure about is hitting the average Russian as a way of attacking the leader (who we know probably has so much money abroad/gold/property/resources).

Headgame, I very much doubt they would be able to penetrate millions of individual accounts in Russian banks. They are trying to exacerbate any run on the banks.

Are you kidding right now @Google ?? https://t.co/XsxzfyfCde pic.twitter.com/OkCrxuoOOf

— Anonymous (@YourAnonNews) March 2, 2022

Google? What are you doing?

If we look at Russia when behind the iron curtain, or north Korea today, neither needed the west or western banks or economies to remain stable within their own territories.

So I dont know how much effect devaluing the Rouble will actually have in real terms. And as to deposing Putin from within, Stalin was an evil murderer who disposed of his enemies, with others ready and willing to fill their roles without even a thought to the previous colleague or their family.

Stalin killed upwards of 20 million of his own people and died of natural causes. So wishing for someone within the ranks of the Russian political system or military to depose or dispose of Putin, might only be wishful thinking, but in reality isnt ever going to be the case.

But its a different Russia to what was behind the Iron Curtain so the parallels can’t be drawn. To become an economically independent state in that manner would not be possible, despite how repressive the regime currently is.

Christ, that Russian soldier is just a child, really. Reminds me very much of photos I saw recently of a 16-yo German soldier, Hans-Georg Henke…

“A lot of talk about regime change on here.

Serious question… Do you see another way out?”

……………….

Yes, it is quite possible that Putin remains in power.

My comment was more in relation to how quickly a conversation about a war turns into the topic of regime change. We have some recent examples of how that worked out and that was with tin pot dictators. This is on a whole other level, yet we all too easily see an equivalence.

German tank crews were ordered to destroy their vehicles if they were disabled during WW2,

I’m pretty sure this is standard practice among professional soldiers.

If that T-80 just needs fuel, that would be a valuable resource for the Ukrainians.

I’m more amazed at leaving a vehicle full of ATGMs just sitting there. Even if the vehicle has been disabled, it’s pretty likely the Ukrainians will be able to repurpose the missiles.

Local residents inspecting an abandoned Russian Shturm-S ATGM carrier with its full complement of Ataka ATGMs. https://t.co/8v54oYd4kG pic.twitter.com/tPcsujLNHg

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 1, 2022