Ukraine

Cheers. If anyone (everyone) knows how to put the image on the forum here i’d be grateful. Busy painting card to make poppies for some protest wreaths for war memorials. Starting with UKRAINE and **** PUTIN in foot tall letters.

Please don’t. Protest by all means but please don’t involve the poppy, or war memorials. Without wishing to reopen an STW can of worms, the poppy is supposed to be a sombre, apolitical symbol of remembrance. There are enough nutters on the right and left trying to use it as political symbolism, please find another symbol for this. I am an ex serviceman who abhors what is happening in Ukraine and supports the Ukrainian resistance but don’t deface war memorials or use the poppy in this. I know most of my veteran friends would be equally horrified at this suggestion.

This ^

Please think how your intended protest will be viewed and seized by some of the right wing media and Farage’s gang. It will distract attention from the atrocities.

I believe that sunflowers are the national flower of Ukraine and could be used in artwork.

I don’t think the younger generation think ‘this is how it is’ the ones protesting certainly don’t, they get they’re news from TicTok and the ‘gram, yet again I’m hoping for the younger generation to put this right.

Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want Brexit or vote for it. They got Brexit.
Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want a Tory government or vote for it. They got a Tory government.

Good luck to the young people in deposing a brutal dictatorship

I was speaking to a young Russian yesterday (based in the UK now) who is in contact with friends and family back home. She said that there is huge polarisation of opinion – the younger generations do indeed have broader sources of information and are generally very anti-Putin and against this war, but the older generations are stuck in their ways and get their information only from state controlled sources, so they believe it all. It’s a bit like Brexit / Daily Mail but taken to a whole different level…

She’s mortified about what’s being done by ‘her’ government and scared for her family, her friends and the world in general.

I am surprised soldiers arent opening fire on those civilians. with civvy cars driving past chucking fire bombs and the arming of the populace they seem to be very tolerant/trusting

how long before civilians willing to lie down in front of tanks start strapping bombs to themselves. really scary stuff.

as much as I want to believe all the western propaganda and want to see Putin fail it does look like they are actually trying to reduce the deaths they cause. well that’s my theory for the slow advance, giving Ukrainians time to escape before flattening stuff. I’m sure they are going to start getting increasingly more destructive as time goes on

Only because they resented the idea of someone “like him” – a mere commoner ordering the aristos about, and they thought they could do a better job at winning the war, and that failed attempt cemented him in place,

Ah right thanks. I’ll let my modern history professor at st andrews uni know he was in fact talking bollock…

What you state above was probably one factor, not the only factor…

 It’s not like no one had the courage to at least attempt to bring him down.

Yeah sure, I know. I was just making the point that despite us sitting here safely in the UK looking in from the cheap seats, it’s pretty easy to ask “why don’t the Russians do something about how Putin’s behaving?”, I was using the last days of Hitler to illustrate that even after the fact that when most of the OKW understood the war was lost by (arguably) late 1942 it still dragged on for another 3 years.

TL:DR It’s not as easy as we think to dislodge autocratic dictators.

oh and the way things are going if they kill zelensky they will turn him into a martyr, not sure they want to do that

It’s a sort of Russian malaise. The energy and effort required to put up with the adversity is far more than would be required to end it, but somehow it’s what seems to pervade, and with a huge sense of pride.

There’s a section about Russia in the book I am reading and why it ends up like this. However your comments about colonialism don’t ring true. Why do you think Russia is so big? The Russians pressed eastwards from Moscow in the same way that the Americans pressed Westn with their Manifest Destiny policy.

Just noticed that the Russian stock exchange isn’t going to open today either. Also, traders have been told to reject sell orders from foreign investors.

I’m just wondering, what happens to an economy the longer its stock market stays closed?

At what point does it become less painful to just open it and take the hit compared to keeping it closed?

It erodes, nay destroys confidence in the market in the same way closing a Bank to stop a run on it does. Would future investors really want to put their money into a market that’s so unstable and will simply lock them out when it all goes wrong? Listed Russian companies face having their value wiped out, even if their balance sheet shows a strong ‘real’ value, they won’t be able to borrow to invest or raise capital by selling more shares which really limits their growth. Economically, it’s a disaster beyond the Credit Crunch for them.

It also unwinds decades of work by Russia. They huge problem with confidence in their own economy. Russian banks allow their account holders to use US Dollars in everyday transactions, and as the value of the Rouble plummets it causes Russians to do what they always do in economic storms, run to the nearest ATM and withdraw dollars. It’s been an uphill struggle for them since the end of the cold war build trust in the Rouble and Russian economics as a whole, in 6 days Putin has all but destroyed it.

As someone with a geeky interest in Economics, I find the economic war fascinating, it shows how the evil business of money can actually be used for good. The Russian are waging a bloody war, for obvious reasons the rest of the World can’t directly intervene but our economic war will be devastating to Russian without a single shot being fired.

In theory, and it’s a very long shot, the US and EU could, and might, offer Russia an massive olive branch economically. “Make Putin go away, hold free democratic elections and come around to our way of thinking and we’ll bail you out” if it works in a couple of years “the West” could stretch all the way around the globe, with only really China and NK on the ‘baddies’ list.

Not my opinions, but the weary, resigned opinion of two Russian commentators on Newsnight last night

Ah, sorry. I thought it was your opinion you were stating as fact rather than two Russian commentators.

Weren’t there a few commentators saying things like Brexit will never happen and Trump will never get elected…

Anyway, as I said earlier, it is unlikely but it’s worth remembering that what Putin is doing is the equivalent of us unleashing our bombs and missiles on Ireland with a constant stream of tweets, instagrams, tiktoks etc documenting the whole thing.

The Kremlin is currently telling Russians that the Ukrainian government is bombing its own people (probably high on drugs while reading Mein Kampf). They may have a media that is dominated by the state but they aren’t stupid.

But yeah, I’m not getting my hopes up. But I think the chances are non-zero.

I think it’s pretty safe to assume that a lot of Russians have friends in Ukraine.

Also I saw on twitter a lot of the generals in the Ukraine army trained and came up through the ranks with the generals in the Russian army.

+1 No poppies.

Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want Brexit or vote for it. They got Brexit.
Pretty much all the young people in this country didn’t want a Tory government or vote for it. They got a Tory government.

Agreed, I did say hope. It’s a very long term hope.

I’m sure many of you know there are many collection points for much needed items going out to Poland:
Crayons, small toys, baby clothes, infant/baby food, tin mugs, shampoo, tooth brushes, feminine hygiene products, bandages, thermal clothing, first aid kits, foil blankets, sleeping bags, towels, nappies etc

Please find a collection point near you and give what you can.
Thank you.

@bunnyhop – there was a thread on Twitter about NOT doing this yesterday. Apparently tons of ‘stuff’ is being dumped on the Polish border. Better to give financially via a charity OR direct to an organisation that gives to UNHCR apparently. I will dig out the thread -it involved someone who was board of a supermarket saying that to work with UNHCR is the *only* best way of giving items of food.

@P-Jay

Thanks for the analysis.

I read a bit about the Russian ‘Fortress’ economy and how they have been working to insulate themselves from the effects of foreign sanctions by reducing foreign debt and other measures.

It sounds like Putin has been planning for some kind of international reaction for a long time but do you think the reaction he’s gotten has gone far beyond what he was expecting?

@blokeuptheroad @stretch switched our paint cans to blue and yellow.
Not out to start another conflict.

Does anyone know if there are any volunteer organisations the Polish/Slovakian borders helping refugees? I’ve seen a lot of them on TV but no indication of whether there’s any centralised organisation with info on how to join. There was a guy on the BBC talking about this a few minutes ago but I just missed it.

If putins objective is to bring the Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit, what does he gain by destroying cities, infrastructure etc. Yes, he ‘wins’ the country but he inherits a broken country that is now Russia’s responsibility to run and rebuild. With the value of the rouble, how can this rebuilding occur. Or, is he blinded by winning and the aftermath hasn’t been considered.

With the value of the rouble, how can this rebuilding occur.

The cost of rebuilding is negligible in the scheme of things.

I read a bit about the Russian ‘Fortress’ economy and how they have been working to insulate themselves from the effects of foreign sanctions by reducing foreign debt and other measures.

It sounds like Putin has been planning for some kind of international reaction for a long time but do you think the reaction he’s gotten has gone far beyond what he was expecting?

The SWIFT lockout is the killer blow. Putin, according to Biden, had hundreds of billions in foreign reserves to which he currently has no access. So he has seriously underpredicted the international response. His only option now is to sell vast amounts of gold to China.

I do worry significantly about cornering Russia in this manner though, it is unashamedly warfare, but at an economic level. And Putin’s only approach throughout his reign has been escalation rather than taking a step backwards. Opposition in Russia is not developed to a point where an uprising is possible, so the only hope is that his own circle takes him out, but these are handpicked loyalists.

It does feel like the rest of the world had few other options, as some commentators have said, we have effectively been at war with Russia for several years, just a different sort of war.

@blokeuptheroad  @stretch switched our paint cans to blue and yellow.
Not out to start another conflict.

👍

Opposition in Russia is not developed to a point where an uprising is possible, so the only hope is that his own circle takes him out, but these are handpicked loyalists.

I actually think there’s less chance of someone from his inner circle taking him out than there is of a popular uprising storming the gates of the Kremlin. I think Putin’s paranoia means that he has made extensive plans and safeguards against a single inner-circle member doing the world a favour.

However, Putin’s loyalists are loyal because he made them very very rich. While he can no doubt deal with individuals or a small group within his inner circle (as much as such a thing exists) turning on him I don’t think he could deal with them all turning on him at once.

Edit to add: On that last subject https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/questions-raised-over-time-lag-on-uk-moves-to-sanction-oligarchs

This isn’t helping.

Interesting PCA discussion at the moment about whether to stand and fight or fall back from the East. History says smart thing is to fall back, but this involves sacrificing a huge chunk of E Ukraine. Tough times ahead…

I do worry significantly about cornering Russia in this manner though, it is unashamedly warfare, but at an economic level.

+1

If there is no Russia…

I don’t think he could deal with them all turning on him at once.

They are all very rich, but what actual levers do they have to depose him? Last time there was dissent (Khodorkovsky, once the richest man in Russia), he just jailed him, stripped his assets, and that was that.

Putin is good at a lot of things, but he is very good at sniffing out people with divided loyalties in his inner circle. And the oligarchs would require significant military and political backing to take the Kremlin.

Thanks for the analysis.

I read a bit about the Russian ‘Fortress’ economy and how they have been working to insulate themselves from the effects of foreign sanctions by reducing foreign debt and other measures.

It sounds like Putin has been planning for some kind of international reaction for a long time but do you think the reaction he’s gotten has gone far beyond what he was expecting?

Oh God yes.

I suppose we have to assume we’re fed a ‘version’ of the news here as much as the Russians are at home. This is an information war as well, but supposedly nothing about this Invasion has gone to plan for him.

I think the Gas price crisis which came just before was Putin’s way of warning Europe of the consequences of getting too involved, and it just might be the reason way they decided to invade in the middle of Winter, I know Ukraine isn’t Siberia, but even this armchair observer thinks it’s only going to make the business of moving troops and supplies harder and favours the defenders?

Anyway, and I’m not expert of course, but I think we’re seeing Putin ‘doing a Boris’ only, more so. the best course of action for Russia now is to withdraw, it’s all gone terribly wrong. His goals were to annex Ukraine to build some feel-good factor at home and bolster his strong man image and dissuade other Counties in the region from ‘moving West’, towards the EU and NATO.

Rather than warning more countries from joining NATO and becoming more hostile towards Russia, it’s done the opposite, more Counties want to join and the biggest, richest Country in Central Europe has just doubled it’s defence spending and economic sanctions and the death toll at home will make him far less popular.

But, like Boris, he’s found himself having to decide what’s best for him and what’s best for his country. If he carries on and gains control of Ukraine, he’ll have a flag waving parade and declare victory over the Nazis, who knows how many will believe it, but it should be enough to avoid losing his grip on power, but the longer it goes on, the more likely they’ll lose and more more suffering will be felt in Russia (he won’t give two shits about Ukrainians, only people who might depose him).

He’s also got to accept that very inconvenient truth that even if they win, the sanctions won’t end, he’ll be alright, he’s supposedly the Richest man on Earth on the quiet, but maybe he thinks he can use the hardship to unite the people against the old enemy and not him. He’s another one of those pricks who really has no empathy and thinks he’s going to live forever.

Putin is good at a lot of things, but he is very good at sniffing out people with divided loyalties in his inner circle. And the oligarchs would require significant military and political backing to take the Kremlin.

I’d imagine that if any of the Oligarchs were to even think about deposing Putin, it would only be with a view to installing themselves as the head of a similar, possibly even more brutal setup

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss…

The whole structure of the country has been absolutely rotten to the core, in one form or another, for as long as most of us have been alive. Can anyone see whatever comes post-Putin as necessarily being any different?

Putin is good at a lot of things, but he is very good at sniffing out people with divided loyalties in his inner circle.

I know, that’s why I said an individual or small group wouldn’t be able to do it.

And the oligarchs would require significant military and political backing to take the Kremlin.

Money buys armies and politicians everywhere. I’d imagine they can be bought even more cheaply in Russia.

But yeah, we’re getting way beyond my area of expertise to the point I’m probably best ignored (I don’t think anything said so far in this thread touches on my actual area of expertise but if it does I’ll let you know).

Yet with the open war on Ukraine, Putin has set in motion a chain of events that he cannot control anymore. The real Ukrainians reacted very differently from the Ukrainians in Putins imaginations, and the West turned out much stronger, determined and united than Putin expected.

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) March 2, 2022

Growing anger in parts of the Russian society, a bloody and probably unwinnable war in Ukraine, a west that is finally using its economic dominance against Russia: suddenly Putin is losing control — not driving events, just reacting to a dynamic that is bottom up, not top-down.

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) March 2, 2022

But yeah, we’re getting way beyond my area of expertise to the point I’m probably best ignored

Whoa there! This is STW, you know. Bad takes on any given situation are encouraged*, the place would be empty otherwise.

*except Coronavirus and dealing with plumbers.

For those looking to donate and support, UNHCR is a good place to do it and they are co-ordinating things.

https://www.unhcr.org/

Worth a read, a piece from The Atlantic about how rapidly attitudes in Europe, particularly Germany, have changed so quickly.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/?utm_source=feed

Don’t worry about people being massacred, our glorious leader has grabbed the opportunity for a party political broadcast

Whilst simultaneously giving his Russian Oligarch funders the chance to get their money out of the country

This is absolutely obscene! Its difficult to know where to start with this as it is so jarringly offensive on so many levels

Could Johnson be an even bigger hypocrite? Yes. The man who suppressed the Russia report, is rolling in Russian cash & has failed to sanction Abramovich is using Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to put out jingoistic films portraying himself as hero of the hourpic.twitter.com/ns6nUsODPD

— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla) March 2, 2022

Money buys armies and politicians everywhere. I’d imagine they can be bought even more cheaply in Russia.

Careful what you wish for. As binners says, what’s the quality and integrity going to be of a new leadership that sells its loyalty for $?

There is no power framework in Russia currently that will deliver anything other than a totalitarian / dictatorial leadership.

I just don’t see how Putin’s downfall will result in anything better for Russians in the medium term, even if it did stop the Ukraine invasion.

There was a good/depressing article in the grauniad last night about the sanctions/economic warfare aspect.

TL;Dr:

Countries that have been subject to massive, punitive sanctions by various members of the International community:

Cuba
Iran
North Korea
Venezuela
Belarus
Etc
etc

Countries where this has resulted in the people rising up or indeed any significant kind of regime change:

….

I just don’t see how Putin’s downfall will result in anything better for Russians in the medium term, even if it did stop the Ukraine invasion.

At some point the oligarchs might want to move to being just rich men enjoying their wealth without having to look over their shoulders all the time and worrying what one man might do to them and their families when the wind changes direction. A lot of them might want to move on from where the country is now to a more advanced economy (as long as they keep their wealth obviously).

And that’s the problem – you try to work out what a roadmap to democracy (or slightly more democracy) would be in Russia, and there are too many steps, each fraught with significant challenges. It is an autocracy resting on a kleptocracy, layer upon layer of corrupt dependence on the status quo.

The best we can hope for is a slightly less insane leadership who realises that Ukraine is a catastrophic folly, and takes that opportunity to provide some breathing space. But Putin, above all else, has insulated himself from that kind of inside job.

Hence my wishful thinking about the state of his health from a few pages back. I’ve been looking at the permutations which provide a change in direction, or the opportunity for one, and am having trouble identifying one. It’s like War Games but without the opportunity not to play, as we started playing several years ago.

A lot of them might want to move on from where the country is now to a more advanced economy (as long as they keep their wealth obviously).

They’ve done that already, hence Londongrad. As for the matter of their consciences, these are individuals who’ve looted their own country in return for offering fealty to an authoritarian, repressive state. Expecting too many of them to change the habits of a lifetime may be optimistic.

If putins objective is to bring the Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit, what does he gain by destroying cities, infrastructure etc. Yes, he ‘wins’ the country but he inherits a broken country that is now Russia’s responsibility to run and rebuild

I think he’d love to build it back. Great for his ego and to show how he really is helping the poor people of Ukraine. Look at the soviet take over and building in eastern Europe post WW2. Maybe even throw up a few statues.

Countries where this has resulted in the people rising up or indeed any significant kind of regime change:

South Africa ?