Ukraine

That Pentagon report has just popped up on BBC. Praying that the disorganisation and low morale they talk about is widespread enough to slow things down even more.

Glorious. pic.twitter.com/1tYEoaQFom

— BRITISH BOXERS (@GrandpaJem) February 28, 2022

“Bollock faced foghorn of ignorance” is suddenly my favourite phrase

That is fantastic.

@agree, the point I’m making is that we invaded another country illegally and used cluster bombs. Only 20 years ago. Completely accept that we have signed a treaty since….but we still did it in our lifetime and we still voted Blair back in.

In 2022 we are horrified at the invasion of another country and the use of cluster bombs.

We are more than happy to make and sell Cluster Bombs to the Saudi’s for use in Yemen. The Saudi Government saying not used in urban areas….not sure I believe a word of it.

According to our Government we stopped supplying Cluster munitions in the late 1980’s. This was another lie. The British made and supplied bombs were dropped on Yemen in 2016.

But all war and bombing of Civilians is atrocious. We shouldn’t have been in Syria, while the bombing was indeed more accurate, there is always going to be civilian casualties. Again our government will lie to the people.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51900898

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/609530

Waive visa requirements.

Signed. Two reasons, it’s the right and proper thing and I also hope it makes the Home Secretary cranky.

According to our Government we stopped supplying Cluster munitions in the late 1980’s. This was another lie. The British made and supplied bombs were dropped on Yemen in 2016.

Considering these kind of munitions have a shelf life in excess of 20yrs it’s not inconceivable that these were weapons purchased before the shipping was stopped.

Whilst looking for alternative news sources right now, I have just happened across RT World News (which I had assumed would have been shut down internationally by now!) but clearly isn’t… I have no words!

An American host, an American guest who happens to be a professor at New York University right now… This is pure diversion tactics, Putin apologist rhetoric, and blaming the EU/UN/US for being racist, whilst constant minor updates of lots of small military gains are going in Ukraine right now and how Putin is combatting all of the sanctions being put on Russia right now so effectively.

Mind blown! 🤯

This is, as far as I can tell, being filmed in the US… These people make Tucker Carlson look moderate! I was aware that there was an element of the US far right that admired Putin and his disdain for the establishment, I didn’t realise this was such a big movement in the US so much so that Russian state owned media had been allowed to fully infiltrate its citizens to provide such propaganda…

Staggering!

Andrew Neil on Twitter suggesting that the big convoy is starting to surrender, deliberately sabotaging thier own vehicles.

This would be the most incredible way for it to end.

I was talking to my daughter about it and she said something along the lines of ‘I hate people’. I pointed out that it only takes few Putins, Hitlers or Stalins to do enormous amounts of bad. Which is an interesting question – are these people uniquely bad, or are there loads of potential super-baddies from which the eventual leaders emerge?

I thought they have been told they are there as a peacekeeping force to because Ukraine is being run by a Nazi government.

Yeah, of course, a Nazi government run by a Jew…

Petition signed; emailed some people asking them to sign and share with others.

As for the farage insult description ^^^ it’s brilliant!

Let’s hope that the Pentagon report which Andrew Neil referenced is somewhere near accurate.

New sport invented in Ukraine – throwing petrol bombs out of moving cars!

New sport invented in Ukraine – throwing petrol bombs out of moving cars!

I almost wish they’d thrown it at the truck, probably more chance of it catching fire.

Signed here too. Helps relieve the feeling of impotency for a few seconds.

Signed, although the POS fat old truck driver we had in at work today got both barrels when he came out with the “but we’re only a small island and we’re full”

He’s might have a point*. I vote we start slinging out the oligarchs to make some space.

*not really, but still up for sending the oligarchs on their way.

Yeah, of course, a Nazi government run by a Jew…

We all know it’s ridiculous statement of course, but we are bought up being taught balanced views ( in the whole) and have access to all manner of information, but how educated are these young conscripts ?
I know nothing of living in Russia. What do they teach them in school for example ?

Signed. China has described it as a war, and indicated it may play a role in a ceasefire.

I suspect this is pretty much correct – it won’t end until Putin’s people turn on him.

Now that the Russians have switched tactics from pursuing a rapid victory on the cheap (failed miserably) and reverted to the mean of leveling Ukrainian cities to the ground like they did with Grozny and Aleppo, the goals of the operation are likely changing as well ?

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 1, 2022

Putin's only hope now is likely to rapidly unleash utter brutality on the Ukrainian people (which he has already started on by shooting MLRS rockets into Kharkiv and other cities) in order to get major concessions from Zelensky in the negotiations

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 1, 2022

And the longer it goes on, the more precarious Putin's position will become domestically. A palace coup is going to become increasingly likely over time https://t.co/rf73cYZAK4

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 1, 2022

Pretty sure neither the US or Russia have signed up to the treaty.

A total of 123 states have joined the Convention, as 110 states parties and 13 signatories. including the UK.

Russia, India,Pakistan and the US amongst others are not signed up so will continue their use.

As far as im  aware we still manufacture them thought. The UK has two types, Russia has 4, 3 in use, and other countries like Germany 4, France 2, one no longer produced, and most of the others have between 2 -4 in their stocks.

US has 47. 15 of which are in current use.

Revs, Putin Isn’t referring to the current PM of Ukraine, he is referring to their history.

He’s completely using it as an excuse, one of many. But if the below hasn’t been posted it here, it’s worth a read. We have a messed up history. Atrocious have been caused by all nations. Human nature at times makes me sick to my stomach.

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/122778

I hope this ends soon. I don’t know any answer. Even removing Putin won’t stop this happening again.

Now Syrians are looking for ways to get to Ukraine in order to hit back at Russia, for it’s support of Assad.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-syria-rebels-revenge-seek-passage

Signed. I see the Ukraine government are offering war bonds to raise funds – is it too capitalist to invest? Anyone found a way to do it? We do the charity stuff too, for our consciences.

Signed.

Any veterans that might have some kit in their garages/lofts there’s a few collections going around to get equipment out to volunteers.

This is one: Kit Request

As well as the humanitarian aid requests.

“Putin’s minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)”

“His problem is that it’s highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions”

Doesn’t there come a point where a population will just accept whatever they must, to stop the bombs/rockets/shells flying into their neighborhood? I don’t think many of us would stick with our “principles and values” very long, certainly not all the way until the place ends up like Grozny.

Again been looking at the history. Grozny is a much smaller city, not clear how well defended, but seemed to be a much higher ratio of attackers to defenders. Aleppo was smaller but more comparable, took best part of 4 years. I’m not doubting the Russians can do it if they really want to, but I just don’t see how it can be over in a timescale that is sustainable. The longer it goes on, and the more deaths there are the more support Putin loses.

I really think their only chance for ‘victory’ in any meaningful sense was to finish it in a week. I mean their much vaunted 40 mile convoy hasn’t moved anywhere for over 24 hours. Feels like they’ve lost momentum.

Could be wishful thinking of course, hope I’m not eating my words over next 3 days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621ea74aec502b53cd48053e%26Watch%3A%20Kharkiv%20residents%20mob%20Russian%20vehicle%262022-03-01T23%3A18%3A49.796Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:09e63477-e4ed-4e4b-86b5-66dc792af05d&pinned_post_asset_id=621ea74aec502b53cd48053e&pinned_post_type=share

bikesand – no.

Doesn’t there come a point where a population will just accept whatever they must, to stop the bombs/rockets/shells flying into their neighborhood?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad

Now Syrians are looking for ways to get to Ukraine in order to hit back at Russia, for it’s support of Assad.

That will complicate matters further. If the Syrians are there in force then the Chechen “hunters”
might simply stop their involvement on religious ground (even if their leader wants to the followers will not). Chechen has long history with links to middle east. It is best they don’t get involve or they will drag fighters from all over the world prolonging the conflict.

“Putin’s minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)”

“His problem is that it’s highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions”

If that is true then Russia wants “half” of Ukraine after the river Kyiv (East Ukraine) together with the non-NATO buffer zone, which I think that might be the “best” outcome to stop the war for now. Then pray that we don’t have to see WW3 at all.

Unfortunately for Ukraine that might be the best outcome for now but they have to negotiate hard to maintain their own military infrastructure.

If the negotiation fails then I am afraid the seed for WW3 is sowed. All it needs is a single spark from that area in future and this time the demand will be entire former Soviet Union.

People never forget or forgive when their country is forcibly partitioned.

I wonder how good the CIA/MI6/etc intelligence is about the very top of Russia?
IMO the best outcome is for a coup in Russia and the new leader to get everyone out.
If the West have intelligence that nothing is going to happen in that regard then Ukraine might have to conceed some ground and unfortunately we let Putin take that win and maybe emboldened him for future adventures.
If they have intelligence that his position is becoming less and less tenable then unfortunately more ukrainian lives might have to be sacrificed to drag it out long enough for that to happen. Very unpleasant but worth it (he says as not one of the ones actually being sacrificed)
.
How secure are the US/UK/EU communications with Zalensky? How much could he be involved in this decision? Being in Kiev is fantastic for morale but hopeless for talking about big stuff like that with his allies without his communications being intercepted. How good are the Russian spies? How secure are the Ukrainians communications? It doesn’t matter if the Russains listen in to his video call to the EU, that’s on the telly. It does matter if they listen to his private phone call to Biden or Guterez. Could ambassadors abroad make that kind of decision for him for example?

People never forget or forgive when their country is forcibly partitioned.

That’s true for both the conqueror and the conquered as history has taught us. There is always a price to pay for this sort of things in the end.

I wouldn’t say never. The people where I’m from have pretty much forgiven Wessex for taking over, and the Vikings too. The Normans on the other hand, that’s a bit fresh in our collective memory!

I wonder how good the CIA/MI6/etc intelligence is about the very top of Russia?

I am sure both sides have intel on each other coz that’s their job (intelligence workers).

IMO the best outcome is for a coup in Russia and the new leader to get everyone out.

That will not happen. Their system/culture etc is not build that way. Tsar was overthrown by the Bolsheviks revolution but was replaced by another form of “Tsar” and all the subsequent leaders were in various forms of “Tsar” in disguise and the latest incarnation is in Putin. Therefore, the system never changed at all. All of them have one thing in common “We are glorious powerful conquerors and we want more”.

True, but a new leader could afford to be more pragmatic and withdraw without (personally) losing face in the that Putin would. Whether they would accept Russia as a whole losing face like that i don’t know.
If a popular uprising lead to Putin’s overthrow there is a window of opportunity there to deescalate this before the new hard man rises to the top
And since you bring up the Bolsheviks, we have never seen a civil war in a nuclear state… Not saying its likely, but revolutions do sometimes go that way. Who knows how that would play out

So what role can the UN play now?
It’s looking likely that a General Assembly resolution (no vetoes apply) for Russia to immediately stop using force will be passed tomorrow afternoon (New York time). It has no legally binding status, but can it influence anything?

That will not happen. Their system/culture etc is not build that way. Tsar was overthrown by the Bolsheviks revolution but was replaced by another form of “Tsar” and all the subsequent leaders were in various forms of “Tsar” in disguise and the latest incarnation is in Putin. Therefore, the system never changed at all. All of them have one thing in common “We are glorious powerful conquerors and we want more”.

Whilst, in Russia at least, there is a real history of reverting to type… The rest of the world could ill afford a “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” situation. I am pretty unaware of the political movers and shakers within Russia right now aside from Putin, Medvedev (Putins former puppet and whipping boy) and Navalny… With Putin gone, whatever was required, I can see significant pressure being put on any interim leader to hold a proper fair and democratic election in Russia ASAP. A Russia devoid of Putin induced anxiety in the voting booth, could well provide a significantly different result to that that has become expected over the last 2 decades… Russia is seemingly an even more “them and us” society than the UK is right now when it talks about the Generation divide. The Generation in the UK that voted to Leave the EU is the generation in Russia that have kept Putin in power, but the generation that voted to remain in the EU in the UK is the generation that would put a moderate like Navalny in the Kremlin…

How long would it last…? That’s another story… Gorbachev was a ray of light for the west in Russia, but he didn’t last long, Yeltsin had his ups and downs but was clearly easily corruptible, and the rest we know all too well…

But let’s focus on the positives eh! 🤔

Does Putin care what the UN think? He thinks everyone is ganging up on him anyway, that would prove his point (in his head)
It already appears he has next to no friends, Lukashenko, Assad, Kadyrov and, erm…
Even Tokayev, who almost certainly owes his own position to Putin, hasn’t come to his aid.

A member state can be removed from UN membership. But what good that would do exactly I could not say.

timbog160
Full Member
Signed. China has described it as a war, and indicated it may play a role in a ceasefire.

Very important too note that they are NOT saying that to their own populous. They are removing pro Ukrainian support from social media whilst allowing anything blaming the US/ the West for this.

Keeping their powder dry for Taiwan basically…