Ukraine

@thols2, can you expand on that?
What’s the signals from the military leaders giving the impression that they’re not preparing their Nuclear arsenal?

Hmmmmmmmm I wouldn’t call it binary. And justifications aren’t always hypothetical, these are the things that need to be decided upon in every conflict.

Well, if you want to play devil’s advocate and make the case for the invasion, be my guest.

While I can see and understand where Putin’s paranoia is coming from, we’re beyond the point that those concerns are relevant to the current situation, imo.

Arguably, we should have been beyond that point when he invaded Georgia but that’s another debate.

The NFZ could only be achieved if every country willing to donates AA hardware, and the UAF ground their remaining air assets
With Patriot and Javelin in numbers plus some shoulder launched AA weapons it would make it hard to fly CIS airstrikes
Then there is the training as the manual wont be in Cyrillic, so no boots on the ground but alot of firepower
Also, you need to interpret the facts from the noise. Are the ruskis firing dumb missiles into cities or dropping bombs from planes? Rockets or jdam type weapons, if its iron bombs from a plane, yes AA tech will help. If its truck launched missiles, not so much.
Saddam lobbed big missiles at Tel Aviv,
Which are easier to intercept, multiple small rockets, much much harder
Phalanx might but they tend to be ship mounted.

What do we have anyway that we could donate that would make a difference? Cant see high tech being risked as the ruskis would love to capture some hardware intact.

Ypu can bet the us are wargaming this constantly and looking at how to shoot up a convoy without air superiority or man portable weapons.

Lots of single use drones with a nice 3 to 5kg warhead that could be flown
remotely using basic model aircraft controls not at the 3 million bucks of a Tomahawk cruise missile would probably be very welcome right now, old school shed built with smart phone camera linked via elons satellite array.

Its ok for you lot, im next to Portsmouth, home of the 2 aircraft carriers and assorted other navy vessels. Be good to go in the initial blast wave, not like the guys in when the wind blows.

I hope so too. At least we have a democratic, legal and law enforcement systems that allow a million people out onto the streets to protest against the government.

Thanks to Priti that will soon be illegal.

Yip… it pretty vacant and this mob get their way, you won’t be seeing any mass protests ever again in the UK

Maybe Boris will change the law so he can finally get to use some water cannons?

Well, if you want to play devil’s advocate and make the case for the invasion, be my guest.

I’m a pacifist so I won’t. I’m just explaining where other people might get their justification from.

What’s the signals from the military leaders giving the impression that they’re not preparing their Nuclear arsenal?

As I understand it, they told Putin they are heightening readiness, cancelling leave, etc. However, those critical jobs are always fully staffed and will cancel leave whenever they have to. If they started dispersing mobile launchers, changing submarine deployments, or keeping armed bombers airborne 24/7, the U.S. would spot that as hostile. Cancelling leave won’t rate.

An interesting explanation of the heightened state of alert of Russian strategic forces by Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.

Since these command centers have been fully manned, this looks like a gesture to calm Putin down without doing anything that my look like a step towards nuclear escalation.

Since these command centers have been fully manned, this looks like a gesture to calm Putin down without doing anything that my look like a step towards nuclear escalation.

I’m a pacifist so I won’t. I’m just explaining where other people might get their justification from.

Like I said, there are no end of justifications if you go looking for them. I wasn’t even joking when I said we would end up discussing the Austro-Hungarian empire.

I’m sure Putin has been looking at old maps and making up all sorts of justifications.

Edit: forget it.

Just had a scarily surreal interaction whilst getting my hair cut just now.

Usual place, not usual staff though. An obviously slavic woman from her appearance and accent, seemed very jovial. She made the usual conversation about asking how my day was etc, then conversation progressed onto COVID restrictions easing not sitting too well with her (I agreed) and then she started talking about holiday plans… I briefly said I’d not made any, she said “you should, everywhere is open again, be nice to go abroad again”… I then politely said about my friend who was saying about his planned holiday to Romania this summer, only 30 or 40 miles from the Ukrainian border…

Her response… “Oh it’s ok, it’s all over, haven’t you heard, Putin has cancelled the war, he is pulling all of the troops out of Ukraine”…

I very nearly walked out mid haircut!

Seriously, read your post again and consider apologising because I actually found that ad-hominin attack pretty unpleasant.

@Flaperon my apologies. There has been some pretty ignorant posts made on this thread so far regarding all sorts of things, misinformation about weaponry, political stances, and several people professing their strategic battle plans as if they were some kind of highly decorated battle generals, not to mention obvious lack of knowledge of geography by some, and a complete disregard for nuances of anything written down that wouldn’t perhaps happen in written conversation (i’ll admit to being guilty of that myself).

I am severely anxious because of the whole situation, I will not lie. Part of my coping mechanism the last few days has been using this thread for positive views and scraps of information, and I have also shared any information I have been able to get hold of myself too. I now understand you weren’t being literal, but it is worth considering the possible effect of written word being taken literally before committing to press submit. There are people out there that don’t even understand that Taiwan isn’t a part or China, or that it has its own political struggles, and certainly a significant amount of people geographically unaware enough to realise it is indeed an island in itself in the South China sea (well several islands actually, just the main one is much larger than the other smaller ones).

In a thread where people have proposed the re-introduction of Cold War era weaponry and tactics to deal with the threat posed by the Russian forces that are mostly using very up to date weapons and defences, you will forgive me for calling you out.

Just to give us something else to worry about, anyone know if this is correct:

#Ukraine thoughts: 1st day of Spring when farmers should be planting. Won't happen in Ukraine, from where 25% of the world's grain imports originate. The breadbasket of the world. Famine & financial catastrophe beckons for them & elsewhere.

— Dr Peter Caddick-Adams #StandwithUkraine (@militaryhistori) March 1, 2022

Oh shit didn’t think about that!

brucewee – if you read the Fiona Hill interview she refers to Putin reaching back into history to inform his view of what Russia should be so your reference to the Austro-Hungarian empire is relevant.
As is your reference to him poring over old maps.

Here in China the local news, and controlled Internet, seems to be saying NATO expansion pushing China to the wall is why Russia must fight back against Ukraine.

All support for Ukraine is being erased from the net.

At first I had locals asking me if I knew about the one-day war between Russia and Ukraine, that Russia won……

I’m getting fed up of explaining to people that, perhaps, if Russia isn’t allowed at the paralympics, at international football matches, fencing, boxing, etc then maybe the bad guys in this can be figured out pretty easily.

Even had to tell some people their education failed if they honestly can’t figure it out. And how supporting the nazis in WWII is pretty much like supporting the Russians in the present.

I expect China to use this situation, if the West doesn’t support Ukraine effectively, to attack Taiwan. I expect massive losses of Chinese troops, but ultimately the illegal takeover of Taiwan.

There are some really, really stupid people around the world, and vindictive, immoral governments. This is an unacceptable situation. Although, if the bad actors here screw the pooch, their populations “may” overturn their governments based upon broken promises in single party nations.

Edit: forget it.

I’m not trying to argue with you here, just exploring the reasons. Whilst Putin might simply be a megalomaniac, there would seem to be quite a few things he is using as justification here. I think it’s worth discussing since it’s relevant.

I’m worried about what the next phase of this will bring.

Putin thought the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russians with open arms. If you have cast yourself as a “liberator” then that brings with it lots of restrictions as to how you would prosecute the fighting. Indiscriminately bombarding cities would be one such restriction.

Now Putin has realised he’s not liberating anyone he’s conquering them. That’s a much scarier prospect. There’s plenty of reports of weapons like the BM-21 rocket artillery already being used in a limited way in urban areas. I’m worried we are about to see a serious escalation on the use of this kind of indiscriminate bombardment in Ukraine’s cities.

Thanks to Priti that will soon be illegal.

If a million people took to the streets right now in the UK, the police would not be able to arrest them all. If they tried, I think more than a million would respond.

If a million people took to the streets right now in the UK, the police would not be able to arrest them all. If they tried, I think more than a million would respond.

Exactly this, police can only manage by public consent. If people decide that the police do not represent their interests then the police and governments will lose

Considering they’re still using cold war tactics and a lot of cold war era kit with a few shiny new bits doesn’t mean people were off.

Blokes in sandals armed with AK series weapons & RPG’s made life very difficult for highly equipped and trained western militaries for years. The world is full of geardos who use Janes when they should be on Pornhub, here is no different it seems.

But hey, nice snide swipe.

In a thread where people have proposed the re-introduction of Cold War era weaponry and tactics to deal with the threat posed by the Russian forces that are mostly using very up to date weapons and defences, you will forgive me for calling you out.

If you have cast yourself as a “liberator” then that brings with it lots of restrictions as to how you would prosecute the fighting

And also the troops – if you haven’t told them that the locals are all terrorist sympathisers or sub-human scum it’s a lot more difficult to simply drive over them.

I’m not trying to argue with you here, just exploring the reasons. Whilst Putin might simply be a megalomaniac, there would seem to be quite a few things he is using as justification here. I think it’s worth discussing since it’s relevant.

I think that’s the kind of discussion you can have before the tanks roll over the border and after they’ve left. I don’t really have any interest in discussing justifications while an invasion is ongoing.

If others want to then crack on. I’m quite binary on this for now. Once Russian troops are back in Belarus I’ll go back to being my indecisive, shades-of-grey, everyone-makes-a-good-point self.

Sadly Russia has a lot more police that don’t give a damn how they treat people.

Putin thought the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russians with open arms.

I very much doubt that.

What would NATO do if Putin authorised deployment of weapons tipped with Sarin / VX etc.

Why has he not been slotted yet by somebody in his inner circle? He is destroying an innocent Ukraine and the future of his own country and people due to sanctions. Not to mention the potential for nuclear exchanges with the west.

I feel like I have an anvil in my stomach.

Why has he not been slotted yet by somebody in his inner circle?

Can’t really answer that. But worth noting that Hitler survived for nearly 15 years and Stalin more than 20…

With all the talk of countries offering military aid etc how exactly is this getting into the country?, and will this military aid arrive in time to be deployed to bolster the Ukrainian army?, are the armaments currently sitting in a warehouse waiting to be collected?, will the ground troops need training in how to use it?

Im pretty cynical as I can’t help but feel this offer of aid is akin to the offers of financial and logistical support often pledged after national disasters that never materialises, smoke n’ mirrors etc.

I don’t really have any interest in discussing justifications while an invasion is ongoing.

Not actual justifications – weaponised history, used as justifications.

If others want to then crack on. I’m quite binary on this for now.

As am I – like I said I’m not justifying it, I’m interested in the information war, in which we are all involved and of which this thread is a part.

Putin thought the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russians with open arms.

I wonder how many people are simply afraid to tell Putin things he doesn’t want to hear? This could contribute to this kind of cock-up wouldn’t it?

Why has he not been slotted yet by somebody in his inner circle?

Because he doesn’t have an ‘inner circle’.

Look at the looks on the faces of those people around him at those unhinged press conferences, and these are meant to be his ‘closest’ advisors. They all look both worried and terrified in equal measure. They all know they’ll be dead if they question him, so just nod and say yes. If he gets a hint of disloyalty, then it’s game over for you. This is how dictatorships work.

He’s an absolutely psychotic madman who’d have you killed as soon as look at you. Nobody can get near enough to ‘slot’ him. You’d never make it down the length of the massive table alive. And if you tried to plot something, you’d likely be dead a long time before you got to carry it out

I wonder how many people are simply afraid to tell Putin things he doesn’t want to hear? This could contribute to this kind of cock-up wouldn’t it?

He’s been in power for 22 years and runs a government where you get ahead through cronyism and patronage. I’d bet five whole Scottish pounds that there is no one anywhere near Putin willing to say “No Vlad. That’s a shit idea”

Mboy, not sure who you’re referring to with you’re comments, this is a mountain bike forum with people who are clearly not experts in the Russian Military. However this forum does contain people with very varied backgrounds whose experience may be worth listening to.
I’ve given my opinions and personal thoughts on the Russian strategy. I have served in the military, working on anti air defence systems (Rapier). I have served in multiple war zones. Back in my day Russia and Korea where our biggest threat, we spent a fair amount of time theorising about this threat. I was discussing the war on Saturday evening with people whom I consider experts, our view in terms of the Russian strategy was aligned.
Now I will reiterate, I’m no expert, I’ve not followed advancements in technology, but I feel reasonably ok to discuss my thoughts here on this mountain bike forum.
Other peoples opinions are more than equal, and I will willingly listen rather than mock. Maybe you might want to think about how your posts read.
I don’t agree with some of the politics mentioned here, I certainly didn’t agree with the posts made about how the Russian army were struggling and how things appeared to look promising for Ukraine. Just because I might not agree doesn’t give me the right to talk down to people.

bet there’s no side arms allowed in the Kremlin (if your going to get close to Poohtin) so It need to be from his personnel protection team.

I feel like I have an anvil in my stomach.

Same.

I’ve tried to stay away from this thread and the news with the principal of ‘dont worry about things you can’t change’ whilst feeling horrible about what’s going on, but I’ve been coming back to try and find some peace of mind that this utter madness will all stop soon.

I’m running through ways this plays out and we could just be in for a prolonged war, and very aggressive insurgency which could last year’s, the threat of muclear strikes could go on and although I wasn’t born until 1980 I can start to imagine a little what the cold war felt like

Re any further attacks in other countries e.g Poland, to my mind he’ll have enough on his plate in the Ukraine given the size of it so would probably not be possible physically, unless he starts missile strikes to the air bases support foreign weapons and aid.

Glad to see the US not ratcheting up any retaliation strikes chat given the talk of Nuclear action by Putin, I bloody wish the BBC would stop putting ‘what happens if a nuclear strike takes place’ kind of stuff on their front page but it’s probably to prevent the spread of missinformation on our side

Some weird reactions though, one guy came into the office yesterday like his team had won on the weekend and everything was honky-dorey, I’ve also had enough with a group in the office discussing military weapons between the sides like top-trumps

Long term, although a heroic effort I don’t think Ukraine can out fight them and it ends in Russia taking some if not all of the country and fighting the locals for years

You can’t bow down to bullies but he’ll not be around forever, after a point they’ll get their country back. Barbaric.

Right time to not really do any work out of anxiety again

Jesus wept! Boris Johnson’s latest press conference? It’s just embarrassing.

He did what he always does… he made a party political broadcast.

In the same way that everything is a photo op with Instagram Liz, everything is a campaign rally for the Boris Party with that ****!

We are governed by absolutely dysfunctional sociopaths. Christ only knows what the rest of the world is making of these two muppets latest outings on the world stage, starting their leadership campaigns early

With all the talk of countries offering military aid etc how exactly is this getting into the country?, and will this military aid arrive in time to be deployed to bolster the Ukrainian army?, are the armaments currently sitting in a warehouse waiting to be collected?, will the ground troops need training in how to use it?

Im pretty cynical as I can’t help but feel this offer of aid is akin to the offers of financial and logistical support often pledged after national disasters that never materialises, smoke n’ mirrors etc.

I’ve gotta’ say – Trumps’ been awful quiet these last few days…

You can’t bow down to bullies but he’ll not be around forever, after a point they’ll get their country back. Barbaric.

Yes, he will not live forever but the next 20 to 30 years will be crucial. The current situation is only a taste of what will come in future. I am not trying to make more people worry but there are certain superpowers that are just beyond West/democratic “control”. These are the ones that West/EU need to prepare for. i.e. if there is a fight at least it will not be one sided.

I’ve gotta’ say – Trumps’ been awful quiet these last few days…

Forget Trump as he is not in charge at the moment. We can all guess what he would or would not do if he was the President in the current situation. There all the various scenarios between Trump and Putin which may or may escalate the problems. Both can be “hot headed” and strategic with Putin having much more “courage” (notice he doesn’t care what the world says?). Both can be unpredictable even when we think we know Putin. Putin does not get to where he is without being “smart” even if it means silencing or terrorising his political opponents using all tactics as long as he achieved his objective. i.e. something to show for.

Re the military aid – airports in surrounding countries are still open afaik as well as roads and so on, and most of Ukraine in terms of area is still under Ukranian control. However if there are still Russian planes in the sky I am not sure how safe the deliveries will be. I wouldn’t want to be a lorry driver.

Trumps’ been awful quiet these last few days…

Some have simply shifted to blaming Biden for causing the invasion. Or blaming Nato for existing. Or blaming Ukrainians for existing. It is difficult to keep track of their excuses.

— Joseph Kusluch (@JaKusluch) March 1, 2022

Poor Ol’ Alexander, bet he’s itching to run to the front and shout “follow me!”

Mboy, not sure who you’re referring to with you’re comments, this is a mountain bike forum with people who are clearly not experts in the Russian Military. However this forum does contain people with very varied backgrounds whose experience may be worth listening to.

My apology to Flaperon aside, my comments weren’t directed at anyone in particular. It is very obvious there are people on here with relevant knowledge to the subject in hand (be it military experience, history knowledge, cultural sensitivity and awareness). But it is more obvious when the equivalent to those who’ve never followed football in their life start piping up with their “expert” opinions come World Cup time every 4 years, before going quiet again immediately afterwards (not that I am in to football, but you will get my drift by explaining it this way I am sure). For instance, even though chewkw’s views don’t sit at all comfortably with me (I guess mostly because he is seeing things from a different cultural perspective), I do believe he is providing some insightful information. From yours and a handful of others’ posts, your military backgrounds are obvious without the need to point them out…

Sharing an opinion is one thing… Doggedly sticking to an irrelevant viewpoint is something else.

Observation: The Chinese haven’t fought a proper actual war since oooh, about 1979 when they had a go at the Vietnamese. I wonder if they’re looking at how the RF are getting on in Ukraine and quietly closing the “How to Invade an Island Annual 2022” that they got for Christmas

Some interesting background info