Ukraine

Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.

It’s a Ukrainian plane. It’s also a tricky one to store, as it doesn’t (didn’t) even fit in it’s purpose built hanger! That thing was a monster, I’m genuinely sad it’s gone. There is a half built sister plane, maybe it can still be resurrected…

please forgive me if to me that sounded like they had a close partnership.

Well yeah they’re both pretty slippery customers so it’s never easy to know exactly what’s the real truth!

I guess it doesn’t mean that they weren’t allies yesterday, or won’t be tomorrow…

bikesandboots
Full Member
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…

Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all

An engine was removed being repaired, it couldn’t be sorted in time to fly her out.

The company that built is say it will cost around 3 billion dollars to rebuild they are intending to try to get the Russians to pay for it. I like their style.

Clearly now on the 28th they’ve had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world.

I wonder if China is watching the West scramble to drop anything Russia related and is worrying that it could happen to them? I mean we buy a lot of Chinese stuff, but how much of that is stuff we could simply do without if it weren’t cheap and easy to get?

Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.

It had engines out for maintenance

Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine.

Did I just read that correctly?!?!

You’re asserting that (despite having bigger fish to fry, the rest of the worlds economy now being quite distracted financially by stopping WW3) that China would “roll tanks” into Taiwan?!?! 🤷🏻‍♂️

I’ve read some stupid stuff on the internet recently, but this takes the biscuit quite frankly!

For reference… A map view of Taiwan…

🤦🏻

Not how read his post, he did state if.

Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine.

@ mboy

In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.

Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?

^^ In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.

I thought that bit was obvious tbh.

Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022

This is an interesting surmation.

I do get the sense Russia are holding back, a lot, and if Putin goes full batshit, this could get extremely ugly very quickly.

I didn’t read it as a literal statement, just a way of saying China is close to performing a similar atrocity as Russia is doing. If the West hadn’t of intervened in the Ukraine crisis then China may have took that as a green light to invade Taiwan.

@w00dster those mountains have a ‘Red Dawn’ look about them.

Yep, I said last night that for the moment people in Taiwan are probably sleeping a little better in their beds.

Shame this had to happen to allow for that.

Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?

😂

Not how read his post, he did state if.

My issue wasn’t with the use of the word “if”… We know China has designs on Taiwan, has done for some time now. My issue was how the military genius would “roll tanks” into Taiwan, a remote mountainous island with literally no natural ports and a very densely built population centres surrounded by dense forests… 🤷🏻‍♂️

It’s one thing taking a short drive down a motorway from the Belorussian border to Kyiv, quite different getting a tank a greater distance across the sea, then finding somewhere to land it, on quite inhospitable terrain etc…

Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s

mols – China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they’ve out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east.
They definitely still produce lots of cheap disposables and will take a long time to wean the west off that; a further consideration is that on/re-shoring products currently manufactured in China will increase prices – setting up the manufacturing infrastructure, higher labour costs and ‘importing’ pollution are a few of the considerations.
There’s also the matter of political will.

On the wider point about China, they’re supreme pragmatists; the chinese communist party and national congress won’t do anything to jeapordise their relentless progress to becoming the world’s pre-eminent superpower.
They have been and still are playing a very long game.
I have little doubt they look at Putin has done to identify lessons to be learned and to identify opportunities.

You didn’t know the A-10 had a martime variant?

Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s

😂😂😂

bikesandboots
Full Member

Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.

Well, it was built there and was based there… It wasn’t in constant use, being only used for the biggest jobs so it might not have been flightworthy on short notice- it was common for it to sit for months between jobs.

It feels really wrong, when people are losing homes and lives and so much is at stake, but this one thing made me really sad. There’s something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world’s lost. I guess it’s a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues. They’re making brave noises about replacing it but it’s not likely, it’s the sort of thing you use because you have it not because it makes sense.

Though, a second incomplete airframe does exist, or did.

China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they’ve out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east

I agree with that, however (and correct me if I am wrong) there are competitors for much of that stuff already in the rest of the world, so it would be relatively easy to get our higher tech elsewhere. I have read that the Chinese economy is somewhat exposed, not sure how significant it is.

But this is a tangent now.

Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own?

No, atomic weapons have their own discrete control systems and are air-gapped, interlocked and coded for the very reason that you don’t want anyone messing with them. There are strict protocols and procedures agreed in international treaties. Thankfully, the big red button on Putin’s desk won’t be connected to anything meaningful.

Yeah, far less important things than that sit on isolated networks, it’s standard procedure.

You think I’m joking?

Goes PFFFFFFFTTTTT.

That Michael Kofman twitter thread is fairly frightening if it comes to fruition.

There’s something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world’s lost. I guess it’s a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues.

Hitler largely funded his war effort with stolen art and treasures from various sources don’t forget… And when things were going sour at the end, he ordered as much of it to be destroyed as possible rather than falling back into allied hands!

Wartime holds no emotion towards material objects I’m afraid to say.

Yes a very sobering thread. I fear it may be more accurate than we would like it to be. I think it may now be a race between the Russians bringing their full force to bear, and the impact of world isolation on Putin’s policy.

Though, a second incomplete airframe does exist, or did.

At the same location? In which case, it’s probably also destroyed

I wonder what the impact of the economic sanctions will be on Russia’s ability to make and supply weapons, gear, and fuel? I know they have a lot of resources internally including oil, but what if they end up having to print roubles to pay people to do these things and end up in hyperinflation? I’m guessing the people who work producing this stuff will have no choice but to keep doing so. There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?

There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?

Pork!!!!!
Liz, Liz get in there now.
Developing pork market.

@molgrips pretty bad I reckon, seems it’s not in the best shape on a good day.

Wiki Source

Problems in the industry include a high level of debt, inflation and lack of qualified personnel. The consequence is that whereas the age of the average defence industrial scientist or engineer in China is about 30 and around 40 in the US – it is 50 years or more in Russia in 2008, it was reported that only 36% of military-industrial enterprises are solvent, while 23% are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Oof this is really not going to help. I did wonder if the reason the troops on the sidelines haven’t been brought in is that they haven’t got the fuel or ammo and are there for show.

Hitler largely funded his war effort with stolen art and treasures from various sources don’t forget… And when things were going sour at the end, he ordered as much of it to be destroyed as possible rather than falling back into allied hands!

Really? Don’t think either of these statements are true.

I’ve read some stupid stuff on the internet recently, but this takes the biscuit quite frankly!

Dammit…I only just fixed my irony meter!

molgrips
Full Member
I wonder what the impact of the economic sanctions will be on Russia’s ability to make and supply weapons, gear, and fuel? I know they have a lot of resources internally including oil, but what if they end up having to print roubles to pay people to do these things and end up in hyperinflation? I’m guessing the people who work producing this stuff will have no choice but to keep doing so. There must be something it needs to buy from outside in this day and age?

I believe Russia have been stockpiling and also resourcing over the years to support this type of scenario, so will have a window to continue for a while yet.

As for natural resources and supplies, Russia is unfortunately a large percentage of the worlds market for a lot of the required resources, from oil and gas, through to rare earths, imports that they require tend to be specifics, same as every other country.

Lets just hope that this starts levelling down soon, it’s still just unbelievable that one man (and potentially his core team) can manage to do something like this, honestly, we are all sat here in the 21st century looking back thinking that history couldn’t possibly repeat.

Lots of videos of convoys of trucks smouldering along various Ukrainian roads, not beyond the realms of possibility thats some of their logistics elements getting hammered. Happened in Iraq quite a bit in ’03 when the US combat elements punched up to Bagdad, the support troops following behind got hammered.

I’ve heard that the Ukrainians have captured a Pantsir-S air defence system which had got stuck in the mud and have some Libyan mercenaries who know how to use it.
How accurate this is I don’t know, just one source at present which I know nothing about

In Iraq, the basic humble RPG did a lot of damage to the allies. Anybody can fire it and it has a big warhead.

When it gets urban, RPGs distributed amongst the population would be a nightmare for the Russians. Any vehicle below a fully armoured tank is vulnerable.

it’s still just unbelievable that one man (and potentially his core team) can manage to do something like this

Well I don’t wish to de-rail the thread, but isn’t this what Bush and Blair did?

Lots of videos of convoys of trucks smouldering along various Ukrainian roads, not beyond the realms of possibility thats some of their logistics elements getting hammered. Happened in Iraq quite a bit in ’03 when the US combat elements punched up to Bagdad, the support troops following behind got hammered.

I know little of such things but that does seem a sensible tactic. Let the big scary stuff pass through, come in behind them and cut off their supplies and then take on the tanks when they are low on fuel and ammo and morale is low as they are cut off?