Ukraine

There are certain posters, you can guess which side they be cheering for before they have even posted…

Anyone watching channel 4 news right now??

The reporter is going batshit against a Putin apologist.

He’s just watched a 6 year old girl die after her flat was shelled….

Can we talk for a moment about the real human cost here, not the high policy stuff?

There are growing numbers of reports of war crimes emerging.
– cluster weapons being used in civilian / residential areas.
– rocket and artillery attacks on residential areas.
– regular, indescriminate firing of single shell’s or rockets ‘accidentally’ into residential blocks.
– criminal behaviour such as murder, bank robbery and theft.

Awful.
Meanwhile we’re second guessing PooTin’s physchology or praising a millionaires boat getting damp.

:(

^^ Only one man can stop that.

I agree outs awful but that’s why so much of the thread is focused on Putin, sanctions etc etc.

@jekkyl

Oh God the tv news coverage is so annoying. I just want video, lots and lots of video clips showing everything going on.

Here’s some actual news:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=2Y

How long to you think Russia can continue? They may destroy the Ukraine, but they are already utterly buggered for decades.

1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR

Feb 28, 2022, 19:17 UTC

Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world)

Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he’s a bit screwed.

Following on from the BP announcement I see Shell have severed their links with Gazprom.

Re. the various sporting announcements, come on UCI, ban Gazprom and find homes in other teams for the riders.

1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR

Sadly the graph looks much more impressive than the actual drop which by my calculation (maybe someone would like to check) is about 20% in the last week.

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

On the basis that just about every commentator and analyst who isn’t Russian has assessed that their progress has been slower and the resistance stronger than they expected and that they have underestimated the logistic effort needed to maintain momentum.

Not just Ukrainian sources but, UK defence intelligence, RUSI, International  Institute for strategic studies, Al Jazeera, Reuters etc.  You are correct in that it is early days and I’m sure the Russians will learn from some of their mistakes and throw greater effort at it, but it is undeniable that things haven’t gone the way they planned so far.

They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the “warzone” for any soldier from any country ?

BBC reporter was in Eastern Siberia earlier, having gone out to a village there specifically to speak to extended family and friends of a Russian soldier who was feeding plenty of information to his family about how frightened he was, that he didn’t know why they were in the Ukraine fighting a battle, that they thought they were still in Russia on an exercise until told that they weren’t. Mention of Ukrainian people telling them to eff off, throwing themselves in front of their tanks etc… Morale amongst Russian soldiers, those that haven’t been bombed back to the dark ages by drone strikes, is not good!

Just think about it… Whilst not every family will have a son in the military, most towns or villages are going to have someone in the military, and any worry fed back to their families and friends by worried soldiers on the front line is going to spread like wildfire!

Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.

War is ALL about propaganda… Winning hearts and minds. Sometimes that means feeding misinformation deliberately, sometimes it means being deliberately honest. It’s about picking the information that you share, and how you share it, very carefully… Sometimes, less is more (Putin’s approach), but sometimes being up front and honest about what is going on (can’t verify exact figures, but this seems to be Zelensky’s approach) makes more sense.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man as the saying goes… 3 weeks ago, Zelensky supposedly had a popularity rating of around 30% in Ukraine, now this figure is supposedly around 90%! He was ridiculed for being a comedian and TV star with no experience of politics, but maybe that’s exactly what is needed right now as he has a clear grasp on how to galvanise his population and is doing an exceptional job of improving morale by showing his passion for the cause.

In stark contrast, is Putin’s stoicism and belligerent “Cold war-esque” approach (hardly surprising, given his roots) that cedes nothing to anyone, seemingly even his closest advisors, going to be his ultimate undoing…?

CZ – go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.

Oops, sorry, forgetting the children, now edited! ☺️ 🧑‍🎄

Russia continues to make outlandish threats to the rest of the world! Putin risks making his country a global pariah, not the great reconstruction of the Russian Empire, with himself as Czar that he really imagines.

Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he’s a bit screwed.

I believe Turkey has already closed off that route, as it controls the Bosporus.

Not looking too good against the dollar, either:

1 RUB = 0.00966702 USD

Feb 28, 2022, 19:24 UTC

Regarding dyna-ti’s post on the previous page – China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:

China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination. China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries,” ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

However we will indeed need to have a plan to move on from this, how Russia could exist in a new order (if it chooses not to go down the global pariah route) and how we might be able to offer him a way to climb down if that would be possible.

Mike Martin has some good threads on this –

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497840961208176647

It’s the normal people in both Russia and Ukraine who will suffer.

Imagine what a 20% or more hike would do to your mortgage interest repayments?

China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries,” ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then… 🤷‍♀️

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems to be that not a single major Russian bank is having its website up right now.
I’ve tried all big Russian banks I know, none of them is working.
I wonder why ?

— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) February 28, 2022

https://twitter.com/kelly2277/status/1498375674557612036

I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…

This feels like China getting Russia to a dry run for their little reclamation of Chinese ‘territory’. Might think twice about it now.

I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?

@countzero

I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…

I think you are failing to see the bigger picture here.

Why would China dirty thier hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?

They can quite happily sit back and observe how the situation evolves before even thinking about how to comment on it.

I’m impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they’re thinking and feeling. 🙄

Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?

Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.

Here’s a Bellingcat article that’s worth a read, showing the use of cluster munitions against civilian populations, and the indiscriminate use of missiles agains civilian locations.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/

I’m impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they’re thinking and feeling.

I think you’ll find that there are people out there with knowledge of the Russian Army, and plenty with knowledge of Russian psychology, who are writing informed articles, and don’t forget, the Russian Army is mostly conscripts, who’re pretty poorly paid, fighting against an opponent who has nothing to lose, and, as I’ve pointed out previously, as with the Finns during the Winter War, and also in Afghanistan, will absolutely fight to the death against an intruder wanting to take their country, their homeland, away from them for purely vainglorious reasons.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CaiDN67PF9a/?utm_medium=share_sheet

😥

China and Russia are ‘pals’ in that they’ll back each other up on the world stage over issues like ‘whether it’s really necessary to have a democracy’ and ‘does it matter if you massacre your own citizens’.

But they still have a fairly delicate relationship. China still believe that Russia ‘stole’ a chunk of Siberia (north and east of the Amur River) from them with that treaty of 18xx. (Russia believed China had stolen it with the treaty of 16xx).

Anyway, these days Siberia is increasingly full of Chinese people setting up businesses and stuff, while Putin is trying to entice Russians to move out east with grants and tax incentives (and mostly failing).

As Siberia warms up and becomes livable, farmable and generally temperate over the next few decades it’s going to become increasingly desirable. China definitely have their eye on it.

Gotta love social media, some Ukranians are making tiktok videos on how to start (once you’ve put fuel in then) Russian vehicles.

Brilliant.

Ok. Deep breath.

I think we may look back on this as the first Great Information War. Except we're already 8 years in.

The first Great Information War began in 2014. The invasion of Ukraine is the latest front. And the idea it doesn't already involve us is fiction, a lie.
1/

— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla) February 27, 2022

Long thread, but well worth 5mins of your time, if only to give some background information as to Putins mindset right now.

Also this one…

Are there still people out there who think the alarm over GOP-Russia ties in 2016 was cooked up by HRC? It was always about Ukraine. Paul Manafort, Rick Gates and Konstantin Kilimnik (Russian intelligence agent) took Trump a plan for Ru taking Eastern Ukraine 1/6

— Tamsin Shaw (@ProfessorShaw) February 24, 2022

Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?

Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine. Once it’s done Putin and his flunkies in the various shit-holes his mercenaries have taken over will support and give credence to the illegal invasion.

Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.

Bingo.

China won’t overtly get involved, because it’s not in thier long term interests.

Hmm, twitter’s stopped working for me.

Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…

The cyber attacks stuff is interesting.
I know not very much about it though…
.
Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own? They must be able to communicate with each other and the Russian government, Kremlin, whoever, there might be a weak spot there somewhere.
I assume people like the CIA, MI6, Mossad will have some of the best hackers out there. Collectively could they possibly find a way in to disable them? Who are Anonymous? For all we know they could be those agencies collaborating but with a good degree of deniabilty. Or at least maverick elements from within them, with all the resources that would entail.
.
If someone, somewhere can find a way to disable the Russian nukes the whole thing changes entirely.
.
Is this even possible, never mind likely?

Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…

Sucks if you own a tesla, but good work, lol

I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?

In the 1980’s, maybe…

We are a long way on from this…

China’s primary interest in keeping a relationship with Russia will be based on the potential supply of cheap oil and gas. But whilst it would be a significant bonus, it would not be in any way worth publicly aligning themselves with a Russia rabidly trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire!

I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?

I think you have a very old fashioned view of China’s technological capabilities.

I have nothing but admiration for those in Moscow protesting to stop the war, and those here.

According to the NYT Monaco is looking at seizing Russian assets and Norway is sending weapons to Ukraine.

I’d imagine that if they are able to hack Russia’s nuke systems then the US/U.K. wouldn’t do so until the absolute last minute, don’t want to give your cards away on just a threat which will then allow Russia to close whatever access and make it much harder to hack in future

Russia claimed to be taking over to protect Russian civilians, but is indiscriminately firing missiles into areas occupied by Russian speakers:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-several-killed-by-russian-rocket-strikes-in-civilian-areas-of-kharkiv

^^ Totally agree, it’s a reminder that Russia and the Russians aren’t the enemy, it’s Putin’s Russia that is the problem.

Those protesters are showing amazing courage.

Have to agree. Some of the bravery shown in Russia in recent days has been amazing.

Regarding dyna-ti’s post on the previous page – China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:

Sorry, I’ve missed that at some point, I was under the impression they had a better relationship with Russia than the rest of the world has. Given that China has offered help in the way of lifting wheat importing restrictions opening the door for increased income form exports. That was on the 25th though.

Clearly now on the 28th they’ve had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world. There was pretty much before this started much discussion about Russia and China moving closer together, but again after the start of hostilities China is again shifting its position.

At the start of the year Putin and President Xi Jinping issued a statement which declared the ‘friendship between the two States has no limits’.

Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…

Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.

Ukraine crisis: Russia Today TV channel faces 15 Ofcom investigations