Ukraine

Germany has suddenly chucked 100m euros at its defence budget too.

That’s billions, not millions. And an increase to, from 47 billion.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220227-germany-to-raise-defence-spending-sharply-in-response-to-putin-s-aggression

Also mentions reliance

He also said that Germany had to move quickly to reduce its dependence on Russia as an energy supplier.

We have to also look towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

The Chinese are reliant on the west to sell their goods, so maybe we have to effectively threaten them with a loss of business, which would seriously hamper their economy.

China has been undertaking great civil engineering projects, and to pay for them the money needs to keep flowing it. If we can threaten to disrupt that, perhaps China can mediate between the western nations and the Russians.

We are though going to have to offer Russia something. Not in the form of some country, this can’t be Poland at the close of WW2, but maybe an increased seat at the economic table.

Our markets have become reliant on China, and thanks to our own oligarchs our industry was privatized, and then as im sure everyone can remember the asset strippers moved in, before hiding their gains in offshore companies our political parties helpfully allowed to be set up.

It wasn’t ever a case of in privatization our industry and larger businesses were going to be invested in to make them the equivalent of other larger economic countries around the world, but more a case of shutting them down and selling off the family silver so to speak, then moving production to the likes of China and other Asian countries, because it was cheaper.

Dump our workforce, pay little corporation tax increase their personal profits. And from there invest in our more corrupt political party for future contracts, which was outsourced to Asia, or wherever was cheapest and then a seat in the house of lords.

We are a rich country, but we have poverty that has only gotten worse over the last 3 or 4 decades, we have a huge military budget, but have stories of our personnel having to borrow kit off the Americans when in Iraq or other conflicts.

Russia may have its oligarchs, and Ukraine does also, but many of our problems, which if didnt exist would have given us more clout int he world is due to our own.

China it appears is being run by them.

If we are to move forward as a nation,and as a people or peoples of the world, we need to move emphasis away from individual wealth of a tiny few, and put it back where it belongs.

I don’t think the Ukranian delegation will be telling the Russians to ‘go **** themselves’.

If we’ve learned one thing it’s that Zelinsky is extremely smart, I imagine they are going there with a clear set of strategic and tactical options, and will likely be able to adapt their approach depending upon what is put in front of them.

I imagine they have planned thoroughly for the occasion and have considered things that haven’t even crossed our minds. If an unexpected opportunity arises during the negotiations then I’m sure they will be agile enough to grab it, however unlikely. Because they will be prepared.

Honestly so sick of comment from nobodys on Web cams. 😂

Can we see the contributors above?

Asking for a friend….

Who initiated the peace talks at the moment? I doubt it is Russia?

It was Russia, widely condemned as a ploy to coerce the Ukrainians into accepting control from Russia in exchange for a cease fire.

We have to also look towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

Seriously? You’ve been banging on for weeks now how it was all that nasty NATO’s fault when all along it was China?

Another thought – if there is even a hint of a cease fire I wonder if that would make already sceptical Russian/ Belorussian troops even more reluctant to throw themselves wholeheartedly into the battle for Kyiv?

It was Russia, widely condemned as a ploy to coerce the Ukrainians into accepting control from Russia in exchange for a cease fire.

This looks like Russia has blinked first wanting a way out even they look as if they are “winning”, although this does not mean Russia is not expecting Ukraine to surrender etc.

We have to also lok towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

You should watch Chinese CCP news briefing (in Mandarin) where they are very vague other than publicly saying they would broker talks (old tricks).

Seriously? You’ve been banging on for weeks now how it was all that nasty NATO’s fault when all along it was China?

You cannot ignore China in this case just like you cannot ignore NATO/EU in Ukraine.

Belarussian troops will resent en masse, they saw what happened to the Chechens and they don’t want to be cannon fodder.

The more this goes on the more unrest in Belarus will grow. Belarus could be the weak link for Putin.

The more this goes on the more unrest in Belarus will grow. Belarus could be the weak link for Putin.

It looks like something might happen (just assumption) if Belarusian are made a fool by their President. The Belarus President is not very popular without Putin’s backing. Actually, the Belarus President is in a shaky ground if he is not careful.

Finland picks a side…

Hallituslähde STT:lle: Hallitus on yksimielinen siitä, että Suomi antaa Ukrainalle aseapua. Kyse on aseista ja ampumatarvikkeista. Tarkemmin asiasta on määrä kertoa illan tiedotustilaisuudessa.

— STT uutiset (@STTuutiset) February 28, 2022

For the above:
“ Government source for BTI: The government is unanimous that Finland will provide arms assistance to Ukraine. These are weapons and ammunition. The issue will be discussed in more detail at tonight’s press conference.”

The much vaunted and feared Russian military, a pillar underwriting Putin’s power has just had a very unfavourable light shone on it. I’m not sure his underlining their failings even further is going to do much to shore up Russian power or his position.

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

i_scoff_cake
Free Member
On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

Your suggesting that Putin’s war, and military, is doing well then?

Putin has dropped all his demands before talks could commence… And threatens nukes.

Sounds like Putin needs to step away from Ukrainian social media too.😉

Agreed – we do need to be careful, but even being objective it looks like something has gone badly wrong here. If the Russians correct it and capture the cities over the next few days, or even weeks, then maybe we will never find out. But if not, then maybe we will start to see the accuracy, or otherwise of the claims. Also if the losses are as high as claimed then surely some of this must start getting back to relatives and families soon?

Brave move by Finland. It has been said there is no such country as Finland from certain sources. Finlandization is a well known term relating to their history.
When I was there they were a proud independent people who just happen to border Russia.
Good luck to them.

Thanks for posting the machine translation Mashr. Neutrality and non-intervention policies are being ripped up across Europe. And Putin made this happen. There is only one aggressor in this, and he is forcing the rest of Europe into acting against his interests. Even if he does achieve what he wants militarily, he has isolated his country within Europe now for as long as he remains its leader.

, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

It’s being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria, if thats even close to accurate they won’t be able to hide it from the Russian public for long no matter how any of this is presented by their state controlled news channels

It’s being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It’s certainly more plausible than the Russian story of “nothing to see here move along”

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It’s certainly more plausible than the Russian story of “nothing to see here move along”

Fair point.

PCA reporting bridges blown over the Dniepr, and also a 17 mile long convoy spotted moving closer. No independent verification, but if true then the application of that overwhelming force could be about to begin. Terrible for civilians still there.

Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

Seriously? You’ve been banging on for weeks now how it was all that nasty NATO’s fault when all along it was China?

Yes Nick, NATO obviously has had a part to play in this, given many political writers, politicians from many quarters has agreed this point. You can still stick to the same old same old but thats the facts, although even an acknowledgement doesnt help much at this stage of the proceedings,

Same as calling Russia Putin, when it is Russia that is doing the fighting. Calling it by the title of the political leader is an obvious. Like the Scots referring to England in times of problem ,not as England, but as Boris, or Thatcher. Or Saddam in the case of iraq, etc etc.

Its not ‘nasty’ nato, your inclusion in that is a slur, so try to be pragmatic , and not emotional.

To solve a problem it has to be done logically,looked at and assessed logically not emotionally. Thats never going to help as its like a little girl throwing a tantrum(not calling you a little girl throwing a tantrum)

And ive never said it was China, so you’ve just scanned and went off on one. China is and can play a part because we dont have a god rep with Russia currently. They see us all with distrust, so to get to the root of the problem we need to work through an intermediary, which in this case would be an ally Russia trusts, namely China.

So how do we approach china without looking weak, cap in hand. We threaten them, but not in so many words. China relies upon us and the EU for a huge portion of its exports, and for countries aligned to us for its resources.

If China thinks we will jeopardize this relationship, there a greater chance they will mediate for us and help Russia see sense.

Sure China can get all or much of its resources from Russia, Russia having a great deal of them. But its no good being able to make the goods if its customers are unwilling to buy.

Your suggesting that Putin’s war, and military, is doing well then?

It depends what you believe Russian objectives to be, and no one outside the Kremlin can be certain.

From an article in the FT at the start of the Russian invasion :

Western officials fear invasion could devastate eastern Ukraine and leave Kyiv besieged within days.

Kyiv was besieged within days – it’s been 4 days since the start of the invasion.

Also from the article :

“They’re making a move on Kyiv. But what they’re going to do in Kyiv is hard to say,” said a senior US defence official.

Western capitals believe that Putin “wants to suffocate rather than flatten Kyiv”, said the senior intelligence official, but there were huge concerns over how high the death toll could be, given the Russian president’s stated aim to “demilitarise” a country with a standing army of 215,000 troops.

The key thing is what is Russia’s end goal? The actions will fit that,” said Cranny-Evans. “If they only go where Ukrainian forces are, that speaks to Putin’s repeated statements of demilitarising Ukraine. Regime change would follow. If Russian troops go into the cities, where there are likely no Ukrainian forces, that suggests a different goal.”

“I suspect this will be a stop-go operation: two to four days of advance, pause and recoup to assess the situation — militarily, politically,” said Mathieu Boulègue, research fellow at Chatham House’s Eurasia programme. “Next steps depend on acceptable casualty rates for the military — but that is an internal Russian decision.”

“It looks like a maximalist approach, but could be a deception strategy to merely take the Donbas,” he continued, referring to the eastern region of Ukraine occupied by Russia-backed separatists.

If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.

https://www.ft.com/content/948dca16-71b9-42c8-9faa-e66c0a76aca7

This isn’t Chechnya, it’s unlikely that the Russians are considering flattening Ukraine.

molgrips
Full Member
Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.

an ally Russia trusts, namely China.

Where has this idea that Russia and China are allies come from? They may be some “enemy of my enemy is my friend” going on at the moment due to the childish populist attacks on China lead by Trump over the past 5 years, but China and Russia are not friendly nations and there is very little trust between them.

Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

well apparently you could see the russian convoys in red on the google maps traffic layer until they turned it off.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis on Twitter: “According @googlemaps, there is a “traffic jam” at 3:15 in the morning on the road from Belgorod, Russia to the Ukrainian border. It starts *exactly* where we saw a Russian formation of armor and IFV/APCs show up yesterday. Someone’s on the move. https://t.co/BYyc5YZsWL” / Twitter

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-snake-island-border-guards-are-alive-and-well-says-ukrainian-navy

Apparently the island guards are still alive.

However, answer me this. How can idiots like Truss et al, be let anywhere near this world-changing situation?

Sadly we no longer attract ex-diplomats into high political office. They are too smart to get involved with the brain dead.

I dont see Putin being able to retreat back into Russia and being left alone by NATO as if nothing had happened, surely?

Are you suggesting NATO attacks Russia?

i_scoff_cake

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

Ok I’ve got to ask this.

Most on here are supportive Ukraine for pretty self evident reasons.

Can I ask, why are you so determined to see them lose? I think it’s a legitimate question to ask at this point.

Please, please don’t say you are just “seeking the truth” because it sounds like you are as partisan as the rest of us, just from a polar opposite direction.

seosamh77
Full Member
https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-snake-island-border-guards-are-alive-and-well-says-ukrainian-navy

Apparently the island guards are still alive.

That’s bloody fantastic news!

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.

Don’t lose sight of the enemy here in the seeking of ideals.

It’s war . Not playground Tig.

I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.

They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the “warzone” for any soldier from any country ?

The Russian casualty reports are being backed up by Nato, and are going to be ballpark correct. They don’t have good morale, and are surrendering in groups after they run out of fuel and get shot up a bit. There’s apparently a Facebook page you can go to , and have a look to see if any of the prisoners is one of your relatives.
Mobile phones were banned in the Russian army because of continual security links, but lots of them still have them, and are ‘encouraged’ when captured to phone home. I can’t imagine captured saboteurs will have a very good time of it – not covered by the Geneva convention.

Tough position , can’t say no to Putin, but has an unhappy public and an army that’s prone to rebelling , so looks like a quick route to the end of a rope if things go wrong, and they probably will.

At this point Putin has achieved Finland ready to join Nato, Ukraine joining the EU and Turkey banning naval passage. Plus losing a lot of troops and demonstrating a lot of their superweapons ain’t that great. Top skills! Plus NATO get access to all those knocked out vehicles for testing

Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…

The biggest plane in the world "Mriya" (The Dream) was destroyed by Russian occupants on an airfield near Kyiv. We will rebuild the plane. We will fulfill our dream of a strong, free, and democratic Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Gy6DN8E1VR

— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) February 27, 2022

🤬

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

So you implicitly believe Russian propaganda? Putin is the master of lies, his entire life has been devoted to developing asymmetric warfare by using disinformation and outright lying. Just look at the attempted poisoning in Salisbury, which was shown to be hopelessly inept in its execution by supposedly experienced operatives.

The Russians have discovered just how fragile supply trains can be in providing fuel and other essentials, and it’s completely forgotten the lesson Finland taught it during the Winter War, when a much smaller, largely volunteer army, stopped the Russian advance and ultimately sent it back with its tail between its legs – Ukrainian volunteers have access to much better weapons, in particular what is now being referred to as St Javelin, the multi-use shoulder launched anti-tank missile, which Russian armour doesn’t have an effective defence against.

I have no difficulty in believing the number of vehicles destroyed by Ukrainian fighters. I have every confidence that everything that Russian media says is lies and obfuscation – it’s following the processes laid down by the KGB, the FSB and Putin, it’s former director.

If you believe the Russians, then you’re completely deluded, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised that you also believe Trump was America’s greatest president, the world is flat, there is a Man in the Moon, and the Tooth Fairy leaves sixpence under your pillow in exchange for a baby tooth.

If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.

There are many more experts who believe things are going badly for Russia.

If you believe the Russians

It’s not black and white, it never is. Don’t you think there could be some grou do in between?

Question everything, even if it comes from the side you like. Which is a lot harder than when it comes from the side you don’t like.

CZ – go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.