Ukraine

Even this UN translator is struggling with translating this BS

At what point does the house chair or next few speakers call it all out as lies?

@bikeandboats – this is an info/propaganda war. The Ukrainian government has every incentive to vastly inflate its reported success in the war.

Agreed – but if the number is even close to the truth then it’s pretty devastating to Putin.

I guess those that might now be cottoning on to their deployment is not a good thing have pretty limited options, the Russians have a pretty old school attitude to ‘cowardice’.

Must be a lot feeling that way, imagine rolling towards Kyiv and passing the burnt out Russian tanks and troop carriers. Must be devastating for their morale.

I wonder what the exit strategy for Putin could be?

I’m genuienely not sure there is a particularly good one. I get the impression he thought they’d roll into the Ukraine and we welcomed as the liberators. Thats certainly not whats happened.

Germany has suddenly chucked 100m euros at its defence budget too. I’m guessing they’ll almost be certainly at an exit plan for dependency on gas as well.

Hes going to bankrupt Russia very very quickly, if the peasants panic and start a run on the banks theres going to questions asked.

He can’t back down as that’d make him look weak. The body bags going back to Russia are not going to be a good look if this is protracted. Maybe he can claim anything East of the Dnieper River as Russia controlled separate state but I can’t see that lasting too long.

Worryingly it feels like its all in, or he’s deposed – and I think he’s got such a ring of yes men around him the levels of protection from the neh-sayers will be too big a buffer.

The Ukrainian government has every incentive to vastly inflate its reported success in the war.

Then pay them as much attention as you think they deserve. Mostly this thread is just people sharing (or oversharing, take you pick) information that they’re collecting from sources and reposting and blathering about it here. It’s up to all of us to sift the claims and counter claims accordingly, and make your own mind up

I’m not here to score points or win on the internet, or virtue signal about how distasteful one aspect of war is over another.

@bikesandboats absolutely, which is a good thing for the Ukrainians. anything that weakens morale is a good thing for them. But then thats leads to the question of what the Russian command element will do to try and maintain/improve theirs. And as they aren’t fully on board with the various rules of war, your guess is as good as mine.

The rumoured use of thermobaric/cluster munitions to flip it back around and score some ‘wins’ could one one such move.

I get the impression he thought they’d roll into the Ukraine and we welcomed as the liberators.

A commentator on radio this morning made the point he has basically chosen ‘bets’ before this that were totally winnable. Small countries, lightly armed countries, massive and overwhelming bombing etc etc. All ‘hidden’ from the press and from European and USA eyes.

He has applied the same formula to the biggest country by area in Europe, with 46m residents, and a well trained and half decently equipped army and reservists (with combat experience since 2014), with a border to half of Europe. A big bet to have made – and one he may not win.

Hes going to bankrupt Russia very very quickly, if the peasants panic and start a run on the banks theres going to questions asked.

The Ruble tanking is more or less a meme in Russia. In 2014 when it lost 50% of it’s value because of the Crimea invasion there was one that said “Yes, thanks for reminding us that we still live in Russia” I don’t think a run on it is going to start the mass panic that many in the west seem to think

@matt_outandabout

It would be fascinating to know who in that chain of command knew this was his plan. As in where/what level/rank did the information stop?

But I also don’t think that it is a country where if you’re a service chief, you get to tell the commander-in-chief his idea is bloody terrible and still be employed/alive.

A commentator on radio this morning made the point he has basically chosen ‘bets’ before this that were totally winnable. Small countries, lightly armed countries, massive and overwhelming bombing etc etc. All ‘hidden’ from the press and from European and USA eyes.

He has applied the same formula to the biggest country by area in Europe, with 46m residents, and a well trained and half decently equipped army and reservists (with combat experience since 2014), with a border to half of Europe. A big bet to have made – and one he may not win.

@relapsed_mandalorian

I agree that few below would be allowed or dare to speak out.
I agree that many in the Russian Military higher echelon’s must know what is happening – but are under threat of life to enact the orders given.
There (it seems) a good few in the ranks had no idea this was happening. And are now increasingly facing an irate people in Ukraine.

A big bet to have made – and one he may not win.

I think there’s every reason to think that he believed all the stuff he was spouting on about the drunkards and neo-nationalists, and that he thought this was just going to be another “special operation”. The amount of troops lined up at the start seem to suggest that he was expecting Ukraine to cave in. I’d imagine the forces on the ground were expecting that also given that they paid no attention at all to what they’ve been doing and seem to be making it up as they go along.

Just imagine, only last week the EU was divided, was signed up to take his gas, in a dither about how to confront him, and thought he was some sort of global power master tactician. This week, he can’t move for sanctions, his access to money s drying up,  and most NATO/EU countries are asking how they apply to become Ukrainian.

@matt_outandabout

I doubt we’ll ever truly understand the logic of that man.

@nickc poor plan hoping they’d fold, then realising he’d have to commit to something that wasn’t particularly well thought out?

I guess internally he can do the default and blame his generals.

It’s the line I’d go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

It’s the line I’d go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

That may have worked up until the bit where he put his nuclear arsenal on special alert…

Pretty sure he could still say it was as a result of their botched operation, he had to take steps to ensure the security of the federation.

I mean, given our recent political issues, it’s not fas ar fetched as a ‘work party’ is it?

I also doubt generals in Russia are quietly retired after bollock drops to write for whatever their equivalent of the Times is and chip off about how they tried to make the President understand it was a bad idea.

A few oligarchs seem to be emerging now calling for peace. Has to at least increase the chances of a cease fire, even if only temporary…

It’s the line I’d go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

The much vaunted and feared Russian military, a pillar underwriting Putin’s power has just had a very unfavourable light shone on it.  I’m not sure his underlining their failings even further is going to do much to shore up Russian power or his position.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia have started but what do they have to exchange for peace?

Assuming this is how it goes via some representatives.

Putin’s team: I want the whole Ukraine and no more NATO membership expansion in Europe. I am now in Ukraine and I can flatten Ukraine.

How should Ukraine response?

I imagine it’ll be a straight:

**** off. Probably delivered more politely. Maybe.

I can’t imagine Ukraine conceding anything at this stage.

I hear Liz Truss is speaking.

Should I duck and cover?

I doubt we’ll ever truly understand the logic of that man.

I am not so sure. Yes, he has drunk too much of his own kool aid, yes he has created a system around keeping HIM in power at all costs etc.

BUT

There are logical reasons for Russian Federation to feel worried or aggrieved. They have lost huge influence since end of USSR. Their once controlled and ‘allied’ states are all starting to look west not east – and increasingly distancing themselves from Russia. Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world) that are not iced in, has key land links to rest of Europe both for trade AND in the event of war. Ukraine has lots of new(ish) discovered oil reserves, huge food growing potential.

Many of the ex-USSR states had revolutions that were, and still are, an embarrassment to Russia. I mean, the Slovaks got rid through banging keys and pans together outside the Russian’s offices and accommodation until basically sleep deprivation took over.* These events are not things they are proud of, and are still recent history.

EU and NATO meanwhile, for all their faults and lack of harmony, was (apart from Brexit) growing in influence and draw for many nations. Right on their border.

Russia meanwhile has huge issues of corruption, greed and criminal behaviour. The resource curse has been biting. They are if anything, compared to EU, going backwards in so many ways.

All the above ‘hurts’ at a nationalistic, pride of place level.

This invasion – and I suspect the future ones of the Baltic states – is, to his mind, needed.

He has persuaded many that this is the case, and we have decades of mis-information for many Russian citizens to believe what is being said outside of Russia. NATO and EU are genuinely not liked, hated even, by many as they too have drunk the party line all their lives.

In a similar fashion to the response from Snake Island to the Russian naval ship.

@BruceWee Well that’s us all effed then. Might have time to dig a shelter if you’re quick.

The Ukraine delegation will concede nothing, or certainly non of Putin’s main demands.  They are showing willing by attending but I doubt they expect much to come of it.

I’m not sure it’s been mentioned / noticed, but it’s a very fast moving thing.

The US may not be able or willing to get directly involved with the War (with A10s or not) but it’s managed to ban Russia’s central bank from US Dollar transactions. This all but stops Russia accessing it’s emergency funds. The Rouble is in near free fall, 28% losses today on top of big losses last week, it’s stock exchange is facing the same and its banks could feasibly be bankrupt within days.

This is possibly more shocking to me than the War itself, when you piss off the rest of the developed world so much they’ll face economic pain just to inflict more on you, I guess you really feel it. This is economic siege warfare.

In a similar fashion to the response from Snake Island to the Russian naval ship.

Was glad to read those guys are still alive, if captured.

**** off. Probably delivered more politely. Maybe.
I can’t imagine Ukraine conceding anything at this stage.

Then why are they talking if both sides don’t want to give way?

The Ukraine delegation will concede nothing, or certainly non of Putin’s main demands. They are showing willing by attending but I doubt they expect much to come of it.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

I meant in relation to the way they’ve planned and executed this operation. Your other points I’d agree with.

It just seems a little half-arsed (which is a bloody good thing for the people of Ukraine) which isn’t what I expected. Unless this is all part of the plan.

I am not so sure. Yes, he has drunk too much of his own kool aid, yes he has created a system around keeping HIM in power at all costs etc.

BUT

There are logical reasons for Russian Federation to feel worried or aggrieved. They have lost huge influence since end of USSR. Their once controlled and ‘allied’ states are all starting to look west not east – and increasingly distancing themselves from Russia. Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world) that are not iced in, has key land links to rest of Europe both for trade AND in the event of war. Ukraine has lots of new(ish) discovered oil reserves, huge food growing potential.

Many of the ex-USSR states had revolutions that were, and still are, an embarrassment to Russia. I mean, the Slovaks got rid through banging keys and pans together outside the Russian’s offices and accommodation until basically sleep deprivation took over.* These events are not things they are proud of, and are still recent history.

EU and NATO meanwhile, for all their faults and lack of harmony, was (apart from Brexit) growing in influence and draw for many nations. Right on their border.

Russia meanwhile has huge issues of corruption, greed and criminal behaviour. The resource curse has been biting. They are if anything, compared to EU, going backwards in so many ways.

All the above ‘hurts’ at a nationalistic, pride of place level.

This invasion – and I suspect the future ones of the Baltic states – is, to his mind, needed.

He has persuaded many that this is the case, and we have decades of mis-information for many Russian citizens to believe what is being said outside of Russia. NATO and EU are genuinely not liked, hated even, by many as they too have drunk the party line all their lives.

Then why are they talking if no sides want to give way?

What makes you think Russia won’t give way?

Because you have to start somewhere. Until one side starts to feel the pain more than the other and blinks. That’s usually how these things work.

And by pain I mean either the death of more people and/or the economic toll.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

What makes you think Russia won’t give way?

I was referring to the answers provided of telling Russia invader to go home.

What will Russia give up for not impacting on Putin’s image?

Because you have to start somewhere. Until one side starts to feel the pain more than the other and blinks. That’s usually how these things work.
And by pain I mean either the death of more people and/or the economic toll.

Yes, but what cards are on the table if Ukraine is negotiating at a “disadvantage” at the moment.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

Politics/optics. Allows both sides to plausibly say they tried negotiating and suing for peace but the other side were too intransigent or their demands too outrageous.

Then why are they talking if both sides don’t want to give way?

I think both sides want to seem willing to find peace, Ukraine especially don’t want to give Putin a reason to say “I offered them peace talks, but they didn’t even show up! Very aggressive”

Edit to say – Ukraine obviously want peace, but know Putin will not offer it without concessions that they will not make.

I was referring to the answers provided of telling Russia invader to go home.

That wasn’t your question.

Politics/optics allows both sides to plausibly say they tried negotiating and suing for peace but the other side were too intransigent or their demands too outrageous.

I think Russia is expecting a surrender from Ukraine rather than peace talks if I can assume from the side of aggressor?

I think both sides want to seem willing to find peace, Ukraine especially don’t want to give Putin a reason to say “I offered them peace talks, but they didn’t even show up! Very aggressive”

Who initiated the peace talks at the moment? I doubt it is Russia?

Edit to say – Ukraine obviously want peace, but know Putin will not offer it without concessions that they will not make.

Yes, but what will Ukraine give up to obtain peace? Will Putin accept? Those are questions that interest me.

That wasn’t your question.

Go read my answers again. My understanding of the answers provided was “F off to Russia” in the peace talk. My answer was if they just want to say “F off to Russia” then why have peace talks when none want to give ways?

What makes you think Russia won’t give way?

Nationalistic pride?
Fear of losing face / power?

There’s no easy way out:
Withdraw and he’s shown the Russian Army to be a paper tiger.
Dig in and the world isolates him and his cronies.
Escalate and face the entire weight of NATO and the US obliterating every last trace of Russian military capability.

Have to be careful that this doesn’t tip into something he can’t afford to lose which is one reason (amongst many many good reasons) why Liz Truss needs to shut the **** up.

My answer was if they just want to say “F off to Russia” then why have peace talks when none want to give ways?

My original answer to the question stands.

My original answer to the question stands.

I see. Now I see what you mean. Your answer is No Deal. Go home Russian invader. Fair enough. Peace talks end.

Withdraw and he’s shown the Russian Army to be a paper tiger.
Dig in and the world isolates him and his cronies.
Escalate and face the entire weight of NATO and the US obliterating every last trace of Russian military capability.

Still a deadlock by the sound of it.

Or the negotiation can go:

You have Russian foot on the ground. You win there.
We have frozen you economically and financially. We win here.

So …

Oh God the tv news coverage is so annoying. I just want video, lots and lots of video clips showing everything going on. But no you get 10 seconds of video followed by 10 minutes of analysis from the lecturer in Russian studies from Lincoln uni, who joins us live from his study on his laptop camer, so his stupid face rather alarmingly fills the entire screen of my large television. Honestly so sick of comment from nobodys on Web cams. 😂

Much of the damage to the Russian economy is irreversible. If Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, he might get away with that. If he fails to take Ukraine, I think he’ll know he’s doomed, and he’s psychopathic enough to take the world with him. We’ll have to hope he gets deposed first, or that the people who actually launch the nukes won’t follow his instructions.