Ukraine

I think the solution lies internally, within Russia.

#UPDATE Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska said it was time to put an end "all this state capitalism" and change policies as the country's economy reeled from the effects of Western sanctions over Moscow's assault on #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/jemWvrtKsM

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 28, 2022

I’m guessing this wasn’t part of Russia’s plan.

.@mchancecnn on scene in the outskirts of Kyiv where "there's been a ferocious battle" between Ukrainian and Russian forces. "The Russian column that has come down here has been absolutely hammered," he says. Suddenly notices in below clip he's crouching down next to a grenade. pic.twitter.com/tBE75uxUTC

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 28, 2022

It appears that the finance director for Gazprom “has been found dead by suicide in St Petersburg”

Can’t get a link to work

If you’re interested in how Russian state telly is broadcasting the fighting in Ukraine, Francis Scarr’s twitter feed is quite revelatory

Rossiya 1 TV news:

"The Nazis who've holed up in Mariupol are hiding behind civilians, but everyone knows that their resistance is futile. Even on the territory they control, the mayhem has begun" pic.twitter.com/tVQR8pPnAO

— Francis Scarr (@francska1) February 28, 2022

I’ve not commented on this thread yet, but have been following it and other sources and I’m as concerned as everyone else. Terrible situation.

However, answer me this. How can idiots like Truss et al, be let anywhere near this world-changing situation? They probably truly believe they are qualified but one slip of the tongue and this sort of nightmare happens. Of course, he was looking to blame someone, but diplomacy skills are subtle and avoid mistakes like this. The muppets in our government don’t know the meaning of subtlety.

This is truly terrifying and the likes of Truss need to have everything they say scripted by skilled, intelligent people.

It appears that the finance director for Gazprom “has been found dead by suicide in St Petersburg”

who knows?

https://www.latestly.com/socially/world/update-widespread-reports-that-gazproms-financial-director-has-died-of-suicide-or-latest-tweet-by-the-spectator-index-3412024.html

Unfortunately we collectively for them

How can idiots like Truss et al, be let anywhere near this world-changing situation?

Meanwhile, outside the “peace talks”

361/ https://t.co/CXdh459GXT

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 28, 2022

With the talk of Belarus joining the war, does anyone know where anything about their military? Doesn’t seem like Russian soldiers know what they are fighting for, or even that they are in Ukraine which must be contributing to their lack of success. Will Lukashenko’s soldiers do any better?

I wonder what the exit strategy for Putin could be? Based on current events, even if the Russian army could take Kyiv and install a puppet leadership, it would take months to control the whole country and require hundreds of thousands of troops to police the country. Would recognition by Ukraine that Donetsk and Luhansk are independent be enough for Putin to backdown and declare a victory?

In Richard Dannatt’s autobiography, he discuses how during the cold war, the consensus was that the Soviet Union’s weight of numbers would allow them to overrun conventional NATO forces in almost any scenario. Putin’s strategical view, informed by cold war thinking, probably thought that weight of numbers and superior tanks would just roll over opposition. As others have commented, tanks on the modern battlefield are sitting targets for modern anti-tank rockets that can be carried on foot and are particularly vulnerable in urban environments.

Excellent thread on the conundrum that Russian elites are in:

Putin’s genius over the past two decades has been to turn himself into the structural institution through which power is exercised in Russia. He is in many ways no longer a person but an institution. The tree trunk that holds all the branches of the greater Kremlin in place.

— Gabriel Gatehouse (@ggatehouse) February 28, 2022

It you’re wondering whether it is a good idea to have that many vehicles packed together in a single line while Ukraine still has TB2 UCAVs and ground-attack aircraft in operation, the answer is no.

Did they do it?
Seems like a tactical winner for the Ukranians, and low risk politicaly.
Master tactician that i am, i would have been all over that.
Do they have any A10 warthogs?
Brrrrrrrt!

I dont see Putin being able to retreat back into Russia and being left alone by NATO as if nothing had happened, surely?

Win or lose this battle, the Cold war is back?

Sadly no Warthogs and, as much as this type of warfare was what they were designed for, this is probably thirty years too far into the future for them to operate without getting shot to shit. They might have new wings and electronics and fancy bombs with pilots that seem to really like flying super-low, but they still fly slow and would be (I think) easy pickings for the SU-37 and the air defense that the Russians have.

With the Liz Truss thing, the world is actually breathing a sigh of relief now that is revealed that they were just trolling Britain rather than threatening Armageddon.

“This is truly terrifying and the likes of Truss need to have everything they say scripted by skilled, intelligent people.”

Because of Brexit the damage she can do is limited. We usually say words have consequences but if nobody’s listening then not so much.

I wonder if the Ukranians will offer asylum to any Belarussian troops who want to surrender?

Perhaps offer them citizenship if they join the Ukranian army and help fight the Russians in the East?

This would be Apache Longbow territory. Sit in the weeds with the dome above the trees & take out the lot.

A-10s are great for poor people wars. This is t their theatre anymore. Although saying that, there was footage of a Frogfoot seemingly just shrugging off being hit by a missile the other day

More drone than Apache territory these days, loitering way up there is better than behind some trees. Especially when you might have the same Hellfires

Olly
Free Member
It you’re wondering whether it is a good idea to have that many vehicles packed together in a single line while Ukraine

I was wondering whether it’s a sign that the lack of air superiority is a bit of a lie tbh? Russia must mostly control the skies above those columns.

I wonder if the Ukranians will offer asylum to any Belarussian troops who want to surrender?

Ukr. govt Youtube video addressed to Russian soldiers: "Do you want to live, or lie in a foreign land?" Says they will buy their arms, that soldiers from every abandoned tank will get amnesty & 5 mil. rubles to split. https://t.co/PAQM5qyQ2n

— Linda Kinstler (@lindakinstler) February 28, 2022

This would be Apache Longbow territory.

Sadly no Warthogs

(And endless other NATO country weapons and fighters)

It does make you wonder, if Putin really did hit the nuclear button, would NATO non nuclear weapons simply obliterate the Russian and Belarusian forces and sites within a few days? And I don’t just mean in Ukraine – I think they would start there and work East… And NATO capabilities seem so much better – things like an A10 or Apache would wipe-out a dozen vehicles at a time. Reload, go back and repeat until there are no more bullets. A few more planes and all the airfields and air defence systems are gone in southern Russia and Belarus…

It does seem that NATO and European countries are literally ‘manning the ramparts’ and putting in place all the logistics of a big response. Flight radar is showing so many spy planes and fuel planes, as well as occasional drones. French and US aircraft carriers are nearby. I suspect that there may be a few folk inside Russia and Belarus with various UK, French, Polish (etc) accents with some targets being viewed in the binoculars. Just in case.

The Truss thing is designed to split the Western unity.

Truss suggesting that a few British joining the Ukrainian foreign legion is enough to put the Russians on nuclear readiness – let’s not credit that smoke screen – though its a warning rather loose talk costs lives, I guess.

With the Liz Truss thing, the world is actually breathing a sigh of relief now that is revealed that they were just trolling Britain rather than threatening Armageddon.

There’s a certain irony there that the Russians, with the help of some obligingly stupid people like Cummings and a bit of time on Facebook, essentially coordinated and delivered Brexit and now they’re trolling Britain for not being part of the EU.

It appears that the finance director for Gazprom “has been found dead by suicide in St Petersburg”

That’s the trouble with those ‘two bullets in the back of the head’ suicides, can be hard to identify the person afterwards.

I wonder what the exit strategy for Putin could be?

I wonder if the strategy is simply to annexe a land corridor to Crimea by taking the regions curently in question, rather than the whole of Ukraine.

West could claim victory by preventing the entire counrty being overrun, And Putin would have accomplished a significant land grab. win win.

However the sanctions look like they are going to totaly cripple Russia, in just a day teh Ruble is in free fall and thier central bank has put up interest rates from circa 5% to circa 25% – that’s going to be crippling for Russia if it’s kept up.

Sun-Tzu paraphrase – why risk open war when you can strangle thier economy and win by not firing a single shot?

If anyone in power had any sense Liz Truss would be locked in a cupboard for the duration.

willard
Full Member

Sadly no Warthogs and, as much as this type of warfare was what they were designed for, this is probably thirty years too far into the future for them to operate without getting shot to shit.

My understanding is that both sides are using SU25s- pretty similar role. Though the russians have definitely been losing them.

I wonder if the strategy is simply to annexe a land corridor to Crimea by taking the regions curently in question, rather than the whole of Ukraine.

That’s been my completely uneducated guess from the start. Basically, a motorway to Sevastopol. As opposed to, would-you-like-a-game-of-global-thermonuclear-warfare?

Have seen Sun Tzu quoted a lot in the last few days! Mostly in relation to what the Russians aren’t doing, rather than what they are.

I think the current peace talks will achieve nothing, but if the Ukrainians can hold out long enough then there may be another round leading to at least a temporary cease fire.

As others have said I really can’t see his end game here – let’s assume eventually he does take the cities, then what – he will have to police an entirely hostile population which will take many tens, if not hundreds of thousands of troops.

Also the gloves seem to be really coming off now, with reports of mass rocket attacks on civilian districts in Kharkiv.

Perhaps the solution lies within Putin rather than within Russia. He’s a power crazed tyrant. Currently the Russians don’t seem to be conducting a blanket bombing style assault such as they did in Grozny so relatively low civilian casualties. If their campaign remains bogged down they might turn to that. If they do start to target civilians with bombing campaigns resistance is likely to crumble. However if the resistance remains strong despite high civilian casualties, what does Putin turn to next? It is important to leave Putin with a way out that is acceptable to him or do we just hope he is assassinated?

Regarding the Gazprom suicide, whichever of them it was.
How close to Putin was he?
Was he perhaps the first person to suggest that Mr President might wish to have a bit a rethink?
If so is this
Good because people are finally starting to stand up to, or least question him?
Bad because that’s what happens to them and might presumably put others off?
.
Unless it actually was suicide of course

The thing is that he doesn’t actually have a big button on his desk that launches the missiles. All he can do is to send orders to the guys in the missile silos and submarines to launch. They have to confirm that it is a genuine order and then cooperate to actually fire the missiles.

You’ve kinda backed up my point though… There is protocol. The protocol being that one person doesn’t have a big red button! He needs access to launch codes that the other person has in their custody, and they are hundreds of miles away and need to be willing to use them.

Do they have any A10 warthogs?

In the context of this war, think of an A10 as an airborne tank and you will realise just how useful they would be… Impressive as the A10 was in its time, the world has moved on. The last few days have proved just how effective personal anti aircraft and anti tank weapons are. This is not a war for slow moving, lumbering machinery.

It does seem that NATO and European countries are literally ‘manning the ramparts’ and putting in place all the logistics of a big response. Flight radar is showing so many spy planes and fuel planes, as well as occasional drones. French and US aircraft carriers are nearby.

All comes back to the 7P’s and a reinforcement of earlier conversations about logistics… NATO would not make the same mistake!

Was he perhaps the first person to suggest that Mr President might wish to have a bit a rethink?

Unless it actually was suicide of course

Is there a difference?

It is easier for a Russian oligarch to enter the House of Lords than for a Ukrainian refugee to enter the Kingdom of Great Britain! From the first book of Johnson. shamelessly stolen.

It appears that the finance director for Gazprom “has been found dead by suicide in St Petersburg”

Shot 3 times in the chest?

Tripped and fell on his gun? ;)

Shot 3 times in the chest?

Perhaps the solution lies within Putin rather than within Russia.

Maybe, maybe not. He’s done a sterling job of shoring up popular support in Russia over the last 2 decades, but I wonder how long that would last if and when Russian citizens start questioning why the rest of the world is supporting a “Nazi regime” and start seeking the alternative versions of the truth… 🤔

As for Lukashenko… The man is nuts! He’s clinging on to power in Belarus by the end of his fingernails, and only because Putin stepped in to help there. Belarus has overwhelming popular support for any opposition, he is universally hated but only accepted because they can’t get rid of him because of Putin propping him up. If I were a Belorussian solider being sent to war in Ukraine right now (usefully their vehicles are being marked with red squares at least!), I would be finding the first opportunity to surrender myself and my weapons. I can see Poland and many other Eastern European countries offering an olive branch to any Belorussian troops who choose to defect almost immediately!

The world might have moved on but there doesn’t seem to have been anything developed that can replace an A10.

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRT!

On Kharkiv, PCA is now saying weapons in use are cluster bombs, illegal under international law to use in civilian areas. Not confirmed yet, but if true a sign of increasing desperation.

Putin’s strategical view, informed by cold war thinking, probably thought that weight of numbers and superior tanks would just roll over opposition.

I think the relatively small numbers of troops that he’d massed at the border only make sense in that scenario – that he wasn’t expected to have to fight a war. To add some perspective; Operation Barbarossa was 3.2 million German front line troops…There just hasn’t been anything like the numbers of RF troops to do any actual proper war fighting in a country the size of Ukraine. Putin totally expected to roll into town, have the Ukrainians surrender, and install puppet regime by tea-time.

(And endless other NATO country weapons and fighters)

It does make you wonder, if Putin really did hit the nuclear button, would NATO non nuclear weapons simply obliterate the Russian and Belarusian forces and sites within a few days? And I don’t just mean in Ukraine – I think they would start there and work East… And NATO capabilities seem so much better – things like an A10 or Apache would wipe-out a dozen vehicles at a time. Reload, go back and repeat until there are no more bullets. A few more planes and all the airfields and air defence systems are gone in southern Russia and Belarus…

It does seem that NATO and European countries are literally ‘manning the ramparts’ and putting in place all the logistics of a big response. Flight radar is showing so many spy planes and fuel planes, as well as occasional drones. French and US aircraft carriers are nearby. I suspect that there may be a few folk inside Russia and Belarus with various UK, French, Polish (etc) accents with some targets being viewed in the binoculars. Just in case.

Ukraine seem to have access to Drones, there was a video on Sky News of them destroying a Russian Missile battery with one.

It begs the question for me, the US, EU and seemingly every nation west of them are offering ‘Lethal Aid’ at what point does that become joining in? If the US offers them attack drones, are they handed over to Ukraine, or are they still piloted from Las Vegas?

The thing that worries me is that frustration may see the RF army deploy a low-yield nuke to erase large swathes of the Ukrainian resistance. Even if it is 0.5 kt, the fact that fissile materials caused an explosion could be enough to trigger a nuclear response. Or would NATO ignore a tidgy nuke?