Ukraine

Peace talks starting at 9AM GMT. Im not hopeful of any progress, but its a start at least.

iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?

Doesn’t seem to be a problem for Turkey.

I think the big question in all this at the moment is how long can Putin sustain a war? Cause there are various ways to obtain a surrender without actually going into the cities and taking them street by street in a head on fight. I heard someone mention on one of the channels that Putin might have changed his strategy towards siege warfare, which is particularly grim sounding tbh.

Difficult to get a picture of what’s actually happening though, I’m sure the Ukrainians are doing alright, but the picture I think we are getting is probably more optimistic than reality I’d imagine though. I doubt Putin has underestimated things as much as people are suggesting he has(he continually said previous to the war, that you can’t predict how things will turn out and about being reactive in such situations). I doubt very much he thought he’d be welcomed as a liberator, although I do think he’s probably going slower than he did think. I think his shout about putting the nukes to a higher state of alertness, suggests he’s now switched to longer term thinking maybe? And is just another stern warning to keep your nose out to other countries?

But even if things are taking longer than he expected, does sound like he’s looking to encircle cities, and completely take the south from Crimea to Donbas along the coast at least. Mariupol looks particularly dodgy at the minute, from looking at a map of areas the russian have took.

I think how it plays in Russia and how much sanctions affect them in Russia will be important, but not sure that’ll be quick or if that will definitely happen though, we are talking revolution type stuff there.

So yeah, big question is how long can Putin maintain war? Who knows, I know nothing about war, just thinking out loud really.

I dont believe anyone posting here knows what the plan is to know whether it going or not.

I think most folks can take a pretty accurate guess that this is not going how the RF armed forces predicted. Now, whether that’s because they’re a paper tiger, or whether it’s hubris remains open to interpretation.

I think the major source of confusion from the military experts and intelligence sources on Twitter and places like this is one of  not; Have they made a hash of it, but Why?

@piemonster I have a friend who is married to a Russian. They don’t live there but her family are only 30ks from the Ukraine border. Last I heard he was trying to fly them out. Not had many political chats but in general they don’t trust the western media.

So yeah, big question is how long can Putin maintain war?

My view (from the cheap seats) is that Putin expected the Ukrainians to roll over, the West to rage impotently, ride out any limited sanction he thought they’d impose – given that we “need his gas” and get back to normal. It’s worked before (see Crimea 2014) so why not this time?

The anti-war protests in Russia are a massive unexpected positive for me & imo as much of a worry for Putin as what’s going on in Ukraine.

Cheers ctk

@grum (which auto corrects to grumpy)

Doesn’t seem to be a problem for Turkey.

That’s actually piqued my interest as to what sort of Government Turkey had on joining, no real idea of Turkey in 1952. I’d guess presently it’s very much a case of strategic value trumps anything else.

Subject aside which is in every respect, very grim, contributions to this thread have been very thought provoking (he said, sitting on the German / Swiss border).

All this military equipment as aid. How does that get in and distributed? Rail? Trucks? Night air drops?

Probably rail and trucks.
Russia doesn’t have air control or are anywhere near sealing the Ukrainian border so stuff can be shipped across relatively easily

Turkey was quite a different place when it joined NATO I think, still following Ataturk’s model – secular, West-looking.

Probably answer my own question after hearing a work colleague has left kiev and is with family just over the border in Slovakia. After a quick Google Earth session to see where she is, at Uzhorod there is a runway that ends 70 metres from the Slovak border…

I might be doing a road trip if she wants to move to Germany.

I see BP and the Norwegian Soveriegn Wealth Fund intend to divest their shares in Russian assets. Who does one sell their multibillion-dollar Russian assets to – given that most other investors are likely to have similar ethical*/legal/financial concerns about such holdings? So are you really only able to sell your dodgy Russian assets to some equally dubious third party – who perhaps are likely to become even more closely aligned to Russia?

Is it feasible to simply “gift” (or sell for £1) to a trust set up for Ukraine, (obviously with safeguards in place). There would be an irony if the wealth to rebuild** came from Russian assets that the “west” had held whilst we greedily tried to profit from Putin.

* I don’t really believe this is driven by ethics – it might be driven by a fear of knock-on effects of sanctions on businesses that hold significant Russian assets though.

** I am aware that this is the optimistic outcome; but even if its 50 yrs from now – one day it will happen. Alternatively, or additionally, such a fund could also be used to support things in Russia that would result in greater stability for the world.

* I don’t really believe this is driven by ethics – it might be driven by a fear of knock-on effects of sanctions on businesses that hold significant Russian assets though.

Maybe not ethics, but optics. Those institutions have a public-facing side and they’re calculated that the publicity is negative for them. There are plenty of murkier institutions who don’t have to worry about public perception and can happily take on that asset at a price slightly less than its pure freemarket value. Although the value of many of those assets has tumbled significantly in the last few days.

BBC says;

Immediately offloading the stake to a potentially inappropriate buyer was not an option.

The company has decided to “divest” – meaning it will sever its financial ties with Rosneft, stop taking a dividend and step back from its two seats on the board.

Company officials say it is too soon to say exactly how this stake will be disposed of.

It could potentially be seized, or sold.

It will mean a significant financial hit, but a price BP had little choice but to pay.

So it sounds like they immediately stop taking part in Rosneft and stop reaping any benefits, then figure out what to do with it later. Probably get sold to some dodgy company later on, someone will be happy to hoover it up cheap.

iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?

Doesn’t seem to be a problem for Turkey.

Whilst the UK is no even in the same league as Russia we are hardly a model of democracy ourselves. Our Head of State and Prime Minister have never been elected in hundreds of years.

Who does one sell their multibillion-dollar Russian assets to – given that most other investors are likely to have similar ethical*/legal/financial concerns about such holdings?

Im sure there are plenty of investors who will buy if the price is right. You will probably find that is all traded through London. At best this is about optics, more likely a straight commercial decision spun for optics.

Not had many political chats but in general they don’t trust the western media.

You can hardly blame them. I think there are plenty of people in the UK who don’t trust the media. The fact that the Daily Mail is one of the most popular sources of new (in the loosest sense of the word) tells you all you need to know about wanting to know the truth.

Speculation was that China or one of the gulf states might buy the BP share. Or that Russia would just seize it

BP share in Rosneft is not, officially, for sale yet; as posted above, it’s being taken off the books re T/O and profit contribution.
BP board are yet to decide on how to divest.

As everyone else is sharing their best guesstimate, uneducated view on Global Politics and Warfare, I thought I’d join in.

I find it really interesting to see the social media aspect of this war, we’ve seen Models holding (airsoft) rifles urging others to join the fight, a Man with a fag hanging out of his mouth carrying a Mine, Russian war ships being told ‘where to go’ moments before they vaporized those who told them, and on the other side of the border, Protests in Russia with stories of protestors being rounded up, and now a run on Russian Banks. I don’t know if it’s fact or fiction, but the invasion does seem to be going especially badly for Russia.

I wouldn’t even guess how this is all going to end, part of me thinks the safest resolution for the world as a whole, is Russia winning, terrible as that would be, but the alternative is us seeing just how far Putin will go, he’s a 69 year old Megalomaniac, how does his Brain work? If the protests at home start to look like his might lose his grip on Power, would he value keeping it above, the lives of thousands, millions or billions? Is he really mad enough to Nuke Kyiv to show how strong he is? And what happens if he does?

Someone mentioned his firing a Nuke into the North Sea to show off? Maybe I’ve seen too many cold war films, but do they really wait until the Missile explodes before they retaliate? If a Russian ICBM launches towards the West, does Biden wait it out? Terrifying really.

Interesting development about Lithuania filing charges about War crimes. It’ll be interesting to see how Putin reacts to a former satellite country behaving like this.

Someone mentioned his firing a Nuke into the North Sea to show off? Maybe I’ve seen too many cold war films, but do they really wait until the Missile explodes before they retaliate? If a Russian ICBM launches towards the West, does Biden wait it out? Terrifying really.

What would you do, personally just one, I wouldn’t retaliate, I don’t know how many would make me retaliate because it would be the retaliation that really triggers the wiping out of life on earth.

If you retaliate to a small number it guarantees escalation.
If you retaliate to a large number it is too late and is just pointless revenge.

Again unverified, but Russia now mobilising its reserve forces to apply overwhelming force to the cities. I would guess Kyiv would be the no 1 target.

If they have been holding back then I guess we will see in the next 48 hours whether Kyiv can hold out.

@chrismac, that’s a pretty pessimistic set of opinions.

Western Media is at least free to peddle shite. For every Daily Mail there is a Financial Times. If you choose, you can get quality independent news when you need to. That’s not the case in Russia.

Likewise, democracy. The UK Head of State is now a purely ceremonial role, evolving by convention over hundreds of years. There are no examples of a British Monarch interfering in politics for at least the last 100 years.

The Prime Minister will always be a democratically elected MP, so will have been subject to a genuinely free election within the previous five years. So it’s one type of democracy and in practice works better than the Russian ‘democracy’ where any credible candidates are killed or imprisoned. Context is everything.

Sanctions will make many dubious investors unable to acquire cheap Russian assets. And commercial rationale is pretty obviously nothing to do with the divestment of BPs Rosneft stake. They’ll take a huge £ hit and it will impact their balance sheet and operating revenues for years to come. Shareholder dividends will be at least decimated. Wait until next year’s financial statements to see just what damage it will do. Maybe they jumped before they were pushed by government, but it’s not a commercial decision.

I don’t want to oversell the UK, but I believe that Putin and his like have gained huge but unwarranted credibility by denigrating Western values and basically saying ‘they’re no better than us’. It’s BS.

Again unverified, but Russia now mobilising its reserve forces to apply overwhelming force to the cities

The RF doesn’t yet have air superiority in Ukraine, and the reserve forces are just more badly trained 17-18 yr old kids who don’t know anything…The numbers of RF causalities/dead so far – in the thousands if the reports are to be believed,  it’s is going to be a bloodbath if it comes down to urban fighting in a city the size of Kyiv (before the conflict started population of 2.9 million) with the numbers of citizens with weaponry, and with a real determination to fight.

Putin’s enabling oligarchs have devoted their adult lives to state sponsored industrial scale kleptocracy.
They have a vested interest in retaining as much of their wealth as possible and maintaining their lifestyles.
This is being threatened by Putin’s behaviour.
Do they, collectively, want to lose their gilded lifestyles?
That suggests one possible ending for Putin.

The Prime Minister will always be a democratically elected MP,

Unless your name is Sir Alec Douglas Home.

He’s dead

Again unverified, but Russia now mobilising its reserve forces to apply overwhelming force to the cities

The RF doesn’t yet have air superiority in Ukraine, and the reserve forces are just more badly trained 17-18 yr old kids who don’t know anything

It’s very difficult to know what is going on, but it does seem clear that Putin assumed it would be over by now. The internet is full of theories about what went wrong with Russia’s plans. Some are obviously nonsense, some come from people who seem to have solid military experience.

One commentator observed that the Russian forces advance very quickly, but outran their logistics and didn’t seem to have a second and third echelon to secure the countryside behind them. What he was saying was that you drive the advance troops in, but you have to keep pouring more troops in to secure the territory that you’ve captured. If you don’t do this, you end up with an insurgency destroying your logistics and your first echelon gets cut off from resupply.

If Russia are going to be rushing reserve troops to the front to try and assault the cities, they will need huge convoys to keep resupplying them with fuel, ammunition, and food. Tanks and heavy equipment will burn through massive amounts of fuel and they are helpless if they run out. Without air superiority, protecting those convoys will be a problem. If Ukrainian special forces target fuel tankers with Javelin missiles or with drone strikes, that will cripple Russian tanks and infantry vehicles. Rushing more troops to the front will just make it worse because there will be more mouths to feed as they sit around waiting for ammunition and fuel deliveries. Air resupply will be very risky without air superiority.

So, yes, Russia could bombard the cities with artillery and rocket fire, but only if they can get fuel and ammunition delivered. Maybe they can, but nobody seems much impressed with their performance so far.

Edit: This for example.

It you’re wondering whether it is a good idea to have that many vehicles packed together in a single line while Ukraine still has TB2 UCAVs and ground-attack aircraft in operation, the answer is no. https://t.co/yNRJsdpg17

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 28, 2022

going to be a bloodbath if it comes down to urban fighting in a city the size of Kyiv (before the conflict started population of 2.9 million) with the numbers of citizens with weaponry, and with a real determination to fight.

This is what worries me – if/when Putin flattens Kyiv with a nuke or carpet bombing or floods of Russian teenagers or whatever, he can say he’s not killing innocent civilians because everyone’s armed to the teeth and fighting Russians.

It’s a bit of a difficult situation really. If the Ukrainian civilians are shooting Russians, then you can’t really complain that Russians kill civilians (in response). If the Russians kill innocents, then you can say the Ukrainian fighters shouldn’t be hiding amongst innocents.

Note I am not excusing Russia in any way shape or form here! Just pointing out some difficulties when civilians start shooting soldiers.

https://twitter.com/historyengland/status/1498228979395960837?s=21

The Times is behind a paywall, but this morning’s carton hits the spot nicely

If the Ukrainian civilians are shooting Russians, then you can’t really complain that Russians kill civilians (in response).

Yes, you absolutely can. Resistance and invasion are absolutely not the same thing.

Yes, you absolutely can. Resistance and invasion are absolutely not the same thing.

Fair enough. Still different from people running away, schoolchildren, etc etc… Doesn’t make it remotely right but does change public perception, which they may use to their advantage.

Well, at least try to. Or fool themselves with it. Don’t think anyone will listen to Russian excuses at this point.

According to the Guardian feed, Roman Abramovhic is in Belarus trying to broker a peace deal.

He is 69 year old. I doubt he will live forever.

Ah so you meant die not retire. I’m 68 and like to think I have a good few years left so don’t bank on him keeling over through natural causes any time soon.

Assisted dying?

Assisted dying?

Doorknob related contamination?

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<div class=”bbp-reply-author d-flex align-items-center flex-wrap”><span class=”bbp-author-name”>andrewreay</span>
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@chrismac, that’s a pretty pessimistic set of opinions.

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I prefer realistic and disagree with many of your answers but wont her because it distracts from the theme of the thread

Kremlin blamed nuclear alert on Liz Truss. Peskov: "There were unacceptable statements about possible conflict situations and even confrontations and clashes between Nato and Russa. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary"

— Catherine Philp (@scribblercat) February 28, 2022

Oh Lizz…

No you are right, there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one, but more than likely only if it lists towards what Russia wants.

I think the solution lies internally, within Russia.