Ukraine

I’ll believe it when I see it but hope with every fibre of my being that it’s true.

+1

The main discharge petition to bring the Ukraine aid vote to the floor, skirting US Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep), seems to have stalled at 177 signatures. They’ll need 218 signatures to get the vote and then a majority vote https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118

The Republican stalling discharge petition has died on its feet at 14 signatures

An ad campaign has been launched to push the aid petition, but even if Mike Johnson agrees with the ad, has an about face and agrees to the vote it’s clear that MAGA representatives can bin him.

He’s now proposing a third option that aids Ukraine alone, which might be agreeable to MAGA and those opposing military aid to a certain middle-eastern country. It’ll doubtless be bound to border controls, loan terms, etc and it’ll be slow because it’s got to travel the constitutional route

Very interesting interview with Macron, this is the kind of clarity europe should have shown from the start

Yes, including from French arms exporters, e.g. Thales with its 25% French government share, which were allegedly selling Russia military optics after the 2014 invasion https://english.nv.ua/business/total-isolation-of-russia/military-thermal-imagers-for-the-russian-army-the-french-company-thales-cooperated-with-russia-aft-50247461.html

Weapons donations from France to Ukraine are low, despite being the third largest arms exporter in the world; scroll down to the table, “Government support to Ukraine:  Type of assistance, € billion” (you’ll have to scroll a fair way to find France) https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

NATO contributions from France have been low for decades https://www.politico.eu/article/france-will-reach-nato-defense-spending-target-in-2024/

France’s insistence that the EU supply only EU (i.e. including French) sourced ammunition. “However, before resorting to foreign suppliers, the EU needs to actually miss the March target, a senior French diplomat told POLITICO” https://www.politico.eu/article/france-open-buy-foreign-ammo-supply-weapons-help-ukraine-eu-meet-target-germany/

President Macron is really not in any position to claim the moral high-ground on the situation in Ukraine

He’s positioning his brand ahead of the next election. There’s genuine concern about the rise of Le Pen and friends so anything to rescue his reputation before then is his priority. General consensus about his tenure is disappointment and his actions have enabled the surge of the right

As with many of these things there’s multiple issues in the background. He doesn’t give a fig about Ukraine, he does care about his career after politics. The two term limit means he’s looking for a new role in 2027

This would be huge news if it goes through.

This deserves more attention: Mike Johnson just signaled new openness to a stand-alone vote on aid to Ukraine. This would stick a shiv in Marjorie Taylor Greene and MAGA in a big way.

Here's my effort to unravel what this means, with help from @LPDonovan:https://t.co/rezLBIdKy3

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) March 15, 2024

If those right wingers really want make America great again then standing up to tyranny (the Kaiser, Starlin and Hitler)is what made them great for most of the 20th century.

I spent much of my time in the RAF working with the US mil. I would characterise their armed forces as mainly republican, fervently patriotic and extremely anti soviet/russian. This current GOP is just so far from the values I saw.

I spent much of my time in the RAF working with the US mil. I would characterise their armed forces as mainly republican, fervently patriotic and extremely anti soviet/russian. This current GOP is just so far from the values I saw.

Likewise. Have a couple of good friends I made that I keep in touch with and they’re dismayed at the state of their nations leadership. And these are gentlemen that know their beans.

I try to avoid politics talk, but it’s very much in their FOV and unavoidable for them.

History may not (one would hope) judge these people warmly.

I’m also thinking. These refineries, as well as the economic and awareness of the population, this is going to hit the oligarchs really hard, right in their most precious asset – wealth generation from thier private assets. I wonder if it may lead to some push back against old PooTin.

I’m sure that’s part of the strategy. Putin will be toppled from within, I can’t see any other way. The only possible other off ramp I see is Zelensky standing down, allowing putin to claim he has De-Nazified Ukraine.

I’m sure that’s part of the strategy. Putin will be toppled from within…snip

I think they’ve got that one covered. There’s a strongly rumoured cabinet change on the way after the election; the Kovalchuk and Kiriyenko families are gaining influence https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2024

Segei Kiriyenko is currently deputy head of Presidential Administration.

Boris Kovalchuk left InterRAO, a Russian utilities company, on the 6th and is reportedly deputy head of the Presidential Control Directorate since the 15th. Boris’s dad has been described as President Putin’s personal banker by the US Treasury Dept.

Rosgvardia, Russia’s internal military force, has also had a shake up since Prigozhin’s rebellion and had been granted heavy weapons by President Putin within days, however, “A Russian insider source claimed on March 16 that Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov revoked a reported agreement allowing former Wagner Group units to operate independently within Rosgvardia.”

It’s the final day of Russia’s Presidential Election today. It’s widely reported that a demonstration of support for Alexei Navalny will take place at noon today (9am UK) and supporters will cast their vote together in “Noon Against Putin”

False flag in Transnistria?

Seems an unairworthy, yet coincidentally fully fueled, helicopter exploded on a spare bit of tarmac with a nice security camera pointed at it, and the neighbouring plane moved from where it’s been sat for years also unairworthy….

What is to be gained by this? Just shit-stirring and causing confusion? Trying to open another front? Winding up Moldovans and hoping the Transnistrans will join in the war?

False flag in Transnistria?#

I’d say so, HD camera pointing at a scrap copter 🤔

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1769387878356766950

It come down to the respective will. The USA would probably be fine with the border as is. In fact many of their analysts have stated that. Russia is hemorrhaging money at a rate that they probably can’t continue more than at the most two years without the general public being painfully aware financially. They are also unable to replace bodies and vehicles at the present rate of loss. So how long will they have strong public support?  Once Putin loses that he is vulnerable to a putsch. Russia, like Britain and America, did pull out of Afghanistan.

Interesting explainer as to why it is effectively impossible for Russia (or any other naval power for that matter) to prevent its ships from being sunk by maritime drones.

14 out of 30 oil refineries in Russia have been attacked and are either out of action or not at full capacity.

Tranistria helicopter attacks seems very suspect.

14 out of 30 oil refineries in Russia have been attacked and are either out of action or not at full capacity.

Tranistria helicopter attacks seems very suspect.

In that video you can imagine Clarkson saying  “Hammond ,you fool”

It’s the final day of Russia’s Presidential Election today. It’s widely reported that a demonstration of support for Alexei Navalny will take place at noon today (9am UK) and supporters will cast their vote together in “Noon Against Putin”

Putin managed to scrape a win with an estimated 87% of the vote……

The “Noon Against Putin” was well attended especially by the Russian diaspora & within Russia, St Petersburg was especially well attended. Many Russians that truly despise Putin & the current government refused to attend the protest or vote at all as they believe any ‘spoiled’ vote gave legitimacy to the election and Putin. It would be interesting to find out just how many votes had been cast but I’m afraid that number will never be known.

The brutal hammer attack last week on Navalny ally Volkov in Vilnius sent a blunt message the opposition. The vote yesterday by Abkhazia to apply to join Russia is worrying too….

Helicopter incident in Transnistria is defo dodgy IMO.

that drone explainer very interesting, and worrying for the all Navies!

that drone explainer very interesting, and worrying for the all Navies!

I imagine that deep in the bowels of General Dynamics the team in charge of the Phalanx CIWIS’s targeting algorithms is busy cracking that particular nut.

Tranistria helicopter attacks seems very suspect.

Massively, an out of commission Mi-8 helicopter that’s been sat rusting away since 2003 (according to dated satellite images) just so happens to get filled up with fuel despite not being anywhere close to air worthy, just before the drone strike and just after a new CCTV camera had been set up trained on it. Yeah, not the most sophisticated disinfo opp ever.

Not quite at the Sims level yet …..

False flag in Transnistria?

It’s a reminder to the good folk of Transnistria where their bread isn’t buttered. It’s officially part of Moldova and recognised as such by Russia, however, Moldova is slowly heading toward the EU and Moscow can’t tolerate that.

Ukraine closed their border so that imports have to come via Moldova and in February 2024 Transnistria officially requested  Russian assistance to withstand Moldovan “pressure”. Russia can’t provide that assistance, as CSTO member Armenia discovered in 2022, but they can present their invasion of Ukraine partly as an intervention for Transnistria.

In 2022 Russia alleged that several attacks causing damage in Transnistria were made by Ukraine and that attacks on Ukraine were made from Transnistria. Moldova denied both accounts and I think that the latest attack on a scrap helicopter, also denied by Moldova, is another in the series.

If you’re wondering about the videos of captured Indian or Nepali fighting for Russia then this is worth a listen.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/mar/19/why-are-indian-and-nepali-men-ending-up-on-the-frontline-in-ukraine-podcast

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlZ3VhcmRpYW4uY29tL25ld3Mvc2VyaWVzL3RvZGF5aW5mb2N1cy9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA/episode/NjVmNDFlNzE4ZjA4ZmU4NzIxZGUwMzNi?ep=14

How does it work logistically for Tranistria? Assuming the Russians are not flying over Ukraine to supply it nor is Moldova giving them access…?

How does it work logistically for Tranistria?

I get the feeling that PooTin doesn’t burden himself with such practicalities.

Belgorod is on fire and being evacuated. Russian independent fighters taking the fight to Mother Russia, hard to know where this ends.

That seems a little sensationalist…

They’re cross border raids, they’ll either withdraw by choice or by force eventually. The timing isnt a coincidence to the “election”.

Loving your hate for Macron and France, Elshalimo and Timba, I think you’re losing sight of the real and common enemy. If there’s one thing Macron isn’t doing it’s electioneering, there’s a two-term limit in France. As for that map of aid I would argue that the accurate long-range guns and munitions France has been providing have been militarily decisive in holding back the Russians but blankets and homing refugees less so.

Pretty much the whole world stood by and continued to trade with Russia after 2014 and many countries with massive resources continue to do so now, they are the problem, not France. I suggest you concentrate on critical military supplies right now, Timba. Both France and the UK are pulling their weight, neither is the problem. Those still supplying Russia would be best avoided when you are spending your hard earned because enither of our governements is prepared to impose meaningful sanctions.

Denys’s heart is in the right place but he is a bit excitable and nowhere close to objective. He’s not where I’d look for an accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground.

If Russia was actually abandoning the city of Belgorod (as opposed to some areas of Belgorod Oblast bordering Ukriane) that would be a huge, huge deal and I suspect we’d be seeing a lot more reporting about it.

Belgorod has a massive military base and is the logistics hub for half the front. Russia would not just let it be taken.

@Edukator – once again you’ve misread the room.

I love France but Macron is a divisive figure at best. I did mention the two term limit earlier.  I would expect a self-declared eminent published rock scientist to be able to read.

bisous

xxx

The raids towards belgarod look to be disrupting the election & worrying Putins oligarchs, Ukraine has lost quite a few troops and equipment on them, I hope it uas managed to distract Russia from pushing further into Ukraine.

Its hard not to be pessimistic about Ukraine, manpower shortages and The Republicans blocking ammunition has gifted Russia a huge window.

Meanwhile Fico and Orban are dragging their countries closer to Russia

At least Macron is trying to fill the gap in leadership , even if his efforts are in part domestic: trying to block LePen

Loving your hate for Macron and France, Elshalimo and Timba

I don’t hate either President Macron or France, I’ve given sourced facts. I’m not sure that I’ll find it easily, but I distinctly remember you posting about your disappointment in France’s efforts some time ago. Perhaps you can find that post?

The examples quoted by me earlier this week are spread across his position either in high office under former-President Hollande or as President.

I think you’re losing sight of the real and common enemy

It isn’t about France being the enemy, you’re misinterpreting that totally. It’s about France, geared up as the world’s third-largest arms manufacturer (probably second-largest now), not contributing as it could. It’s apparent that if you give President Putin a centimetre then he’ll take a kilometre. Too little, too late by France and looking suspiciously like an act of personal promotion by President Macron

Pretty much the whole world stood by and continued to trade with Russia after 2014 and many countries with massive resources continue to do so now, they are the problem, not France.

Pretty much the whole world didn’t impose sanctions on Russia in 2014. Only countries representing ~16% of the world’s population imposed sanctions by 2022, it was less in 2014

The point is that it’s alleged that France continued its arms trade after the imposition of EU sanctions, e.g. https://english.nv.ua/business/total-isolation-of-russia/military-thermal-imagers-for-the-russian-army-the-french-company-thales-cooperated-with-russia-aft-50247461.html

…critical military supplies right now…snip

President Macron has had 7 years to provide a greater volume of critical military supplies. He also had the option of joining the UK in Op. Orbital training Ukraine’s volunteer troops; Sweden, Canada and Denmark all managed it.

He could have joined its successor, Op. Interflex, in 2022, which included Australia, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, New Zealand, Romania, Sweden (Germany promised and then sent its apologies)

As for that map of aid I would argue that the accurate long-range guns and munitions France has been providing have been militarily decisive in holding back the Russians

Evidence that

Those still supplying Russia would be best avoided when you are spending your hard earned because enither of our governements is prepared to impose meaningful sanctions.

UK finished taking Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) from Russia in 2023. Montoir-de-Bretagne and Dunkerque were amongst the six European terminals importing the largest volumes of Russian LNG between 2021-2023. “Of all the Russian LNG that was received by Belgium and France between January and September 2023, 37% was transshipped, of which the majority went to non-EU markets.” https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-turns-blind-eye-21-russian-lng-flowing-through-its-terminals

I don’t know if France is making money from Russian LNG, perhaps you know the answer to that one?

Ukraine, manpower shortages and The Republicans blocking ammunition has gifted Russia a huge window.

Remember, in the West we hear about Ukraine’s woes, we don’t necessarily hear about Russia’s and there is a huge operation in place to keep it that way.

The fact that the Free Russia brigades have now been operating over the border for over a week suggests that things are decidedly creaky under the surface.

Evidence you say Timba:

The Caesar guns are proving partciularly useful with the munitions factories running flat out. Countries are limited to providing weapons that meet the range criteria – the highly accurate long-range Caesar fits perfectly

The UK stopped gas imports in March 2022

Like the UK, France has progressively increased it’s sanctions against Russia, just last month in the case of the UK.

Why slag off the Russians when France is there to kick, eh.

Something from a Swiss site I follow. A debate on neutrality and impartiality, April 11th.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/swiss-neutrality-initiative-passes-100000-signature-hurdle/73961433?utm_campaign=news_en&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=o&utm_term=automatic

Yes, including from French arms exporters, e.g. Thales with its 25% French government share, which were allegedly selling Russia military optics after the 2014 invasion

Hmm, that sounds familiar. Exocet anyone?

As others have said, this is posturing from Macron, he’s terrified of Le Pen usurping him, he’s already damaged his brand with an unpopular campaign in Mali off the back of Afghanistan.

He’s being cautious but for his own aims dressed up as domestic concerns.

And I separate France and the French from the self-guided interests of the President. Much like in the UK, defence companies have quite a bit of influence there politically.

On the Op ORBITAL/INTERFLEX points, always found it strange that the French mil weren’t involved. They have some pretty solid doctrine and training methodologies which would have added real value.

I don’t think the UKR are loosing men and equipment attacking Belgorod. That’s the Free Russia force I think.
Ukr won’t put boots on the ground inside Russia (allegedly) as it changes the narrative and opens up a can of worms.

And I separate France and the French from the self-guided interests of the President

I think you’ve got that arse about face. I’d argue that Macron has the best interests of the French and France in mind and is fighting against those who haven’t. Bardella is the name you’re looking for BTW, not Le Pen, Bardella’s the front man. Macron sees that aide to Ukraine is essential to European security but Bardella abstains on votes for support to Ukraine. The FN/RN have a long history of being influenced and aided by the Russians.

Macron is very much on your/our side, Bardella is not. Bardella is a populist and sees that there is poor support for the war in Ukraine and for Ukraine itself is low. Recently only 39% of those polled were in favour of continued financial and economic support for Kiev. Macron is on the side of right and good and some of you here seem to think he’s the enemy when he’s on the same side as you and working with you if you could but see it.

Do you have a link to that TF1 piece, or similar, in English? I’d genuinely be interested to hear it and I suspect that I’m not the only one who isn’t fluent in French here… thanks

Why slag off the Russians when France is there to kick, eh.

You really have me wrong. It’s not about France and is all about President Macron’s timeliness and balance in presenting his legacy

The UK stopped gas imports in March 2022

The UK announced in March 2022 that it would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, Russian gas imports stopped on 1/1/2023.

The UK still buys gas from TotalEnergies Gas and Power and there’s no suggestion from me that Russian gas is being trans-shipped to the UK https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-embraces-8b-energy-deal-with-firm-linked-to-russian-gas-imports/

I’m moving on…