Ukraine

The package will fund ammunition, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons and artillery rounds, including for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS.

“This ammunition will keep Ukrainians’ guns firing for a period, but only a short period,” Sullivan said during a briefing.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/03/12/pentagon-announces-a-surprise-300-million-weapons-package-for-ukraine/

Have we done today’s multiple strikes deep inside Russia? Biggest oil refinery, many military sites, Russians volunteering for Ukraine now fighting thier own countrymen inside thier own country? Another plan crash with rumors the people on board were very valuable A50 crew being transferred etc etc

I guess it’s election time, and it makes sense to continue to cut off oil income to Russia, as well as blind then more…

Propaganda or a genuine uptick in activities and Ukrainian spring offensive?

I think just larger targets to unmine Putin at his time of self glory .

I was just reading about what timba (?) posted, about Russian freedom fighters off on their holibobs to fight… Against Russia. I wonder if Putin really knew, for certain that this would be the outcome of his little excursion when it kicked off (for “real”) a couple of years back if he would still have gone ahead with it? At the very least he’d have paused for a few years to make sure he had a working… Well anything really, before kicking off?

Surreal, scary times.

One of Navalny’s aides attacked in Lithuania.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68549966

@poopscoop the previous is summarised here to some degree of accuracy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_Belgorod_Oblast_incursions#:~:text=By%20analogy%20with%20the%20LNR,incursion%20into%20neighboring%20Bryansk%20Oblast.

Oil refinery in Ryazan south east of Moscow hit by several drones.

Early morning of 13 March 2024 – Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, which processes 18.8 million tons of oil per year, was hit by several drones, causing explosions and a fire.

The plant is one of the five largest producers of fuel in Russia and is one of the few producers of… pic.twitter.com/EZR2rq0VuC

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Clear blue skies, slow moving drones, filmed by everyone…

The attacks yesterday took out plants  that provide 1/5th of Russia’s total refinery capacity

4 days before the election, Putin will not be happy

Propaganda or a genuine uptick in activities and Ukrainian spring offensive?

What it is doing is gradually squeezing Russia’s ability to finance war. It’s also, by extension, a direct blow to fuel supplies for Russia’s war machine. The attacks are very public in that they decrease the availability of fuel at the pump and increase prices in a country already hit by a shortage of essentials, such as eggs and the gradual erosion of public services, e.g. heating plants, just before presidential elections.

Ukraine is now targetting the Russian energy market at source because you can’t export what you can’t produce. The damage to some plants is likely to take 12 months to repair, assuming that parts can be imported. Sanctions have been recently tightened, especially in the all-important dollar banking world, making obtaining parts and exports of energy more difficult.

This has the benefit of forcing Russia to consider defending sites spread across their massive country and detract from materiel on the frontlines. Russian energy bosses have had money and property seized and lately they’re struggling to produce oil and gas, so you can bet that they’re pressuring the Kremlin.

You know that Russia is struggling when the nuclear threat is wheeled out and that’s getting more frequent, including this morning https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-ready-nuclear-war-not-everything-rushing-it-2024-03-13/

4 days before the election, Putin will not be happy

I don’t think it will cost him that many votes 🤷

Early morning of 13 March 2024 – Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, which processes 18.8 million tons of oil per year, was hit by several drones, causing explosions and a fire.

The plant is one of the five largest producers of fuel in Russia and is one of the few producers of… pic.twitter.com/EZR2rq0VuC

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Clear blue skies, slow moving drones, filmed by everyone…

The attacks yesterday took out plants  that provide 1/5th of Russia’s total refinery capacity

4 days before the election, Putin will not be happy

it seems ukraines new tactics are to mwke it as expensive as possible for russia to continue. so whilst they are losing some land to russia, it is costing russia heavily. i have a faint hope that putin may realise he cant defend his whole infrastructure against drones and rethink the invasion, otherwise this sort of thing is going to become a daily occurance

??? "Ukraine plans to mobilize 500.000 people, of which 330.000 will replace exhausted military personnel on the front line", – FT

❗️The remaining recruits will compensate for losses and meet other military needs, depending on the situation on the battlefield, – said the MoD pic.twitter.com/54XkepWCl4

— The Ukrainian Review (@UkrReview) March 13, 2024

Thls will be key for Ukraine, but not  an easy task

I don’t think it will cost him that many votes 🤷

It isn’t about the result, it’s about legitimacy and popularity.

If Russia can say that they achieve an 80% turnout and an 80% vote for the winner then that election is clearly more legitimate than in countries that only manage a 30-40% turnout. This is why armed Russian troops were going door-to-door in occupied Ukraine to get voters out, both now… “One resident complained of pro-Russian collaborators with ballot boxes going from house to house looking for voters accompanied by armed soldiers.” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68535301

…and in 2022, “It comes after Russia-installed election officials said 93% of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region were in support of annexation, as were 87% of ballots in the southern Kherson region, 98% in Luhansk and 99% in Donetsk.

The referendums began on 23 September, often with armed officials going door-to-door collecting votes.” https://news.sky.com/story/all-four-occupied-areas-of-ukraine-vote-to-join-russia-in-sham-referendums-12706657

It isn’t about the result, it’s about legitimacy and popularity.

Which you have demonstrated none of in your examples.

A couple of discharge petitions have been opened to signatures in the US House of Representatives, these will bypass US Speaker Mike Johnson if successful and get a vote on aid to Ukraine

There is concern over including aid for Israel in one discharge petition, while Republicans have introduced a second petition to include border control, which is an opportunity to delay the vote while details are agreed https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-discharge-petition-ukraine-israel-aid/

Whilst Putin’s in no real danger of ‘losing’ this election it is a rare chance for him to try and gauge public sentiment.

In democracies we have all sort of outlets for out discontent  (this very forum for instance)  in autocracies such open displays are strongly discouraged so the pressure tends to build under the surface until suddenly the dam breaks and you and your minions are swinging from lampposts.

Putin, not being a complete idiot, knows this very well and his people will be pouring over the turnout patterns, feedback from the campaign etc for warning signs.

Of course whether or not this actually helps this relies on him having people willing to tell him the truth rather than what he wants to hear, the lack of this has doomed many a tin pot dictator over the centuries and could yet do the same to Putin.

It further good strategy by Ukraine, but one of the key things Putin will get out of his (manufactured) election mandate, is the ability to go for a much wider mobilization/conscription, which i think is the next logical move for him. Whether he can actually get people mobilized is another issue, but I don’t think these attacks will do much to change Putin’s mind on pressing ahead in Ukraine, sadly. I think the grim truth is there has to be a lot more attrition and depletion of both militaries, economies and societies in both countries for the war to come closer to some kind of conclusion – whatever that conclusion looks like.

On threats to use nukes, I believe it’s just rhetoric. If they used one in Ukraine, then they would face military consequences which I believe have been laid out to them explicitly by ‘the west’ in 2022 (like, we will sink your entire black sea fleet if you do that). That would be aside from making themselves (more of) a global pariah and potentially losing the China lifeline that is crucial to them.

EDIT: on the election, the only real avenue to register dissent in Russia, is probably to not vote. So the best result we can hope for is a reduced turnout, though probably not to the scale seen in Iran. Also, who knows if Putin already has a plan to get turnout by bribing/threatening people out…or failing that then finding a way to fabricate it…

Interestingly, there’s a spat brewing between India and China, “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, a contested region that Beijing claims as part of “South Tibet,” has angered China.” https://www.newsweek.com/china-india-fumes-tunnel-strategic-military-border-standoff-war-1878592

We’ll have to see how that develops, but Russia’s relations with BRICS countries (as above) and within its CSTO (due to Armenia-Azerbaijan) may be put under pressure. It’s all happening and getting complicated

Which you have demonstrated none of in your examples

Which is kinda the point. It’s a charade 😉

We need to stop thinking of BRICs as some kind of united alliance thats going to balance out NATO.

It’s a very very loose group motivated primarily by economic interests but riven by diametrically opposed interests and simmering rivalries, India and China for just a start.

It’s not NATO and it hugely unlikely that it ever will be.

Geopolitics. What a time to try and stay alive….

We need to stop thinking of BRICs as some kind of united alliance…

Absolutely. The significance of instability within BRICS is that India and China are two of Russia’s largest clients for energy ATM and are Russia’s largest customers for weapons. Russia will have to negotiate a path between its biggest customers. Russia’s weapons exports have shrunk by 53% since invading Ukraine, just to add to its economic woes

…thats going to balance out NATO.

That’s what the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) military alliance is about. Article 4 of the CST is similar to article 5 of the NATO treaty… an attack on one member brings them all in.

The significance of instability within the CSTO is that Russia didn’t act when Armenia called for an article 4 intervention in September 2022. Armenian PM Pashinyan has frozen CSTO membership and is now looking to the EU and US.

CSTO member Kazakhstan has been against the invasion of Ukraine and has refused to recognise the Russian-declared Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, so plenty to keep Russian diplomats engaged if they are to keep the alliance from fragmenting further

Three 5-minute reads loosely grouped around the Russian Presidential Elections; legitimacy, win, succession:

Russian elections: despite fixing the opposition, Vladimir Putin wants lots of people to vote for him https://theconversation.com/russian-elections-despite-fixing-the-opposition-vladimir-putin-wants-lots-of-people-to-vote-for-him-225626

What can we expect from six more years of Vladimir Putin? An increasingly weak and dysfunctional Russia https://theconversation.com/what-can-we-expect-from-six-more-years-of-vladimir-putin-an-increasingly-weak-and-dysfunctional-russia-224259

Putin has no successor, no living rivals and no retirement plan – why his eventual death will set off a vicious power struggle https://theconversation.com/putin-has-no-successor-no-living-rivals-and-no-retirement-plan-why-his-eventual-death-will-set-off-a-vicious-power-struggle-224485

This phone call between Putin and Macron, 4 days before the invasion.
byu/Exact-Quote3464 ininterestingasfuck

Very interesting interview with Macron, this is the kind of clarity europe should have shown from the start. (AI translated)

Here’s Macron statement in english with the help of AI

h/t @chrisschmitz pic.twitter.com/exLCLL55jx

— Casus Belli (@casusbellii) March 14, 2024

Another large refinery strike overnight, and seemingly lots of suggestions that Belgorod in Russia has more fighting / drones / missiles / troops on the ground going on?

Clearly interrupting the election, but also continuing the erosion of all sorts of important things.

Even having no election wouldn’t interrupt the result of the non-election methinks.

Unfortunately these strikes haven’t eroded Mt Vlad’s ability to keep breathing….

i reckon they are also desperate to force russia to redeploy troops and assets to try and remove some of the iniative russia has gained.

russia cant have enough AA to defend every refinery, factory or key site and the front line.

Unfortunately these strikes haven’t eroded Mt Vlad’s ability to keep breathing….

No, but apparently it will have huge financial and resource issues this spring, summer and autumn as the money flow from selling the oil is reduced, they will struggle to repair these refineries, and apparently close to a real issue of fuel supply within Russia…

It all ratchets up pressure on the Russian homefront and brings the war home to a population that were largely promised this would never affect them.

No wating to link to the mail or express but another unfortunate and untimely significant death… Published 16 hrs ago.

The vice president of Russian Lukoil, Vitaly Robertus, has been found dead in his office in Moscow, according to a Lukoil, making him the fourth top Lukoil executive to die since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.

“It is with deep regret that we inform you that at the age of 54, the vice-president of the company, Robertus Vitaly Vladimirovich, suddenly died,” Lukoil said in a March 13 press release, which did not disclose the cause of death.

While the Lukoil press release avoided mentioning the cause of death, Russian Telegram channels, both independent and linked to the Kremlin, reported on Thursday that the Robertus had been found “hanged”.

https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1768330966748086666?s=20

Looks like the Republicans may have given up on appeasing Putin and be about to vote for that Ukraine aid bill:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gop-ukraine-mike-johnson-congress-b2512976.html

Another oil refinery hit 👍

Looks like the Republicans may have given up on appeasing Putin and be about to vote for that Ukraine aid bill:

I’ll believe it when I see it but hope with every fibre of my being that it’s true.

Good Matt cartoon! I really do hope the Republicans have seen sense, but will wait to see the colour of their money…

Today, Ukrainian ?? Kamikaze Drones struck 2 Oil Refineries in the Samara Region of Russia, located 800km to 900km from Ukraine

One drone strike was on an oil refinery in Syzran, and several drones struck the Novokuibyshiv oil refinery pic.twitter.com/QbiBxsLhoB

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) March 16, 2024

All of these attacks on oil refineries are going to make agriculture interesting for Russian farmers, while simultaneously using oil supplies for propping up an economy and a war machine

Crude oil continues to be produced but India has stopped importing certain Russian premium light crude oils partly because it breaks the G7/EU/Aus sanctions cap for shipped oil and partly because India won’t pay https://www.newsweek.com/russia-india-oil-putin-sanctions-1879547

There were a dozen Russian tankers anchored off Malaysia and SKorea for weeks in February/March carrying 15mn barrels bound for India and tying up those ships. I guess we know what happened now

I would be very worried about turning up for my shift at any refinery in Russia over the next few weeks….