Ukraine

It’s always blokes over 45 years old – we should be put on the bloody carousel when we reach 40.

Logan’s Run?

Starting to think that Nato should just say **** it and go all out and burn Russia to the ground.

But, yeah, nukes.

Because the world is more interconnected than it ever has been, and inter-dependency reduces the motivations for wars

Yeah that’s what they said at the beginning of the first and second WW’s. It’s exactly what was left of the Japanese free press said after Pearl Harbour (That Japan relied on US imports) Interconnectedness (is that even a word?) is what drove Nicolas II  into war in North China against the Japanese – (the search for a ice free winter port)

The world has always been interconnected. Wars are started because of it not despite it.

Because the world is more interconnected than it ever has been

It possible to interpret the lack of internal energy security that Western European countries experienced as one of the significant reasons for the “calm” of the last 70 years.

Countries (e.g. America) that are largely energy independent can act much more belligerently.

With Russia, they were significantly addicted to the foreign money that flowed in the opposite direction to the outgoing hydrocarbons.

To a lesser extent Russia may still be reliant (in the long term) but the nutters “in charge” are now sufficiently isolated from short term economic shocks that they dont appear to care.

Starting to think that Nato should just say **** it and go all out and burn Russia to the ground.

But, yeah, nukes.

Putin won’t launch nukes as long as we have nukes to launch back

Can I ask here about the impact of sanctions or is there another thread for that?

I’m wondering what people would accept as a cost of living hike. Petrol and diesel at £3 /l, gas at £6/ therm making the winter fuel cap around about £6k, bread at £3 a loaf and the rest of the weekly did shop also doubled? We need to take some pain to dish more on Russia, but those that struggle to get by now would be starving and freezing next winter. I don’t know how we do it, but right now I can’t see how we can avoid get tougher sanctions.

but the nutters “in charge” are now sufficiently isolated from short term economic shocks that they dont appear to care

Indeed. It’s okay to talk about interconnected countries, but when those in power have successfully disconnected themselves from their own country…

Logan’s Run?

That’s the one.

Putin is not crazy, he’s a greedy little turd, but he’s not crazy

But, yeah, nukes.

There’s no reason to think that Putin would launch nukes. I think that idea the Putin is ‘mad’ is for the birds frankly. His reasoning is completely sound. What’s changed has been the rest of world’s reaction to his normal behaviour.

Because the world is more interconnected than it ever has been

I think “more” is the crucial word here. Japan attacked the U.S. because the U.S. economic sanctions made the Japanese economy unsustainable – they needed imported oil and raw materials. They had a choice of either back down (over their ongoing invasion of China) or go to war. Backing down was politically impossible for the Japanese leaders so they went to war on the fantasy that they could seize enough territory that the U.S. would negotiate a peace treaty.

Russia has made a similarly bad calculation. Back in 1942, the interconnectedness was much less than it is now. Pretty much every industry anywhere in the world relies on global supply chains and international financial systems. Russian factories will shut down because they can’t import essential components and they can’t pay for them. What this is showing is that countries that try to de-globalize will pay a huge price. If going to war means being involuntarily de-globalized, it will be a huge incentive to not escalate to armed conflict.

but those that struggle to get by now would be starving and freezing next winter

Definitely worth its own thread. In fact there’s probably already more than one existing thread in terms of the inequality of hardship already hitting many in the UK. Cost of living, especially the essentials of eating and heating, was already rising fast with more to come before this war escalated and sanctions were muted.

I can’t see how we can avoid get tougher sanctions.

The forecasts of banks (that you can see in papers like the FT) Is that Russia starts to default by April if the current levels of sanctions are kept up, and at that point; it’s game over really. The gamble is that we can last longer then he can. The effect on the average Russian is going to be dramatic, and in the short term prices will go up for us as well – untangling what is inflation, COVID, Brexit, War in Russia will be hard though.

Why do we think the unusual period of relative calm of the last 70yrs should be the new world order and not a weird blip?

First point would be – are you sure its 70 yrs of calm? I think if you were the other side of the iron curtain you might only see it as 30… However there’s no doubt that for large parts of western Europe we’ve never had it so comfortable and generally speaking people will be quite keen to retain a status quo which gives them good quality of life. The risk is always the instability from the disadvantaged, whether that is states which have been excluded from the boom of economic growth or groups/classes of people within our own countries who have for whatever reason not flourished to the same extent during those years of stability. Those people have less to lose and more to gain – the stupidity of the lucky is spending years resisting “the rest” catching up, simply making it more likely that one day they flip against us.

I’m wondering what people would accept as a cost of living hike. Petrol and diesel at £3 /l, gas at £6/ therm making the winter fuel cap around about £6k, bread at £3 a loaf and the rest of the weekly did shop also doubled? We need to take some pain to dish more on Russia, but those that struggle to get by now would be starving and freezing next winter.

We get by on low incomes at the moment but would be prepared to take a hit to help Ukraine. However hard it is it isn’t going to compare with what the people of Ukraine are experiencing.

I’ve been frustrated by the seemingly half-hearted sanctions (although I might not be appreciating their full extent) – some banks removed from Swift, some Oligarchs sanctioned etc. It seems that individual governments are reluctant to apply sanctions that harm their economies.

I think that we’re still trading oil and gas with Russia (Boris doesn’t think sanctioning Russian oil is the right move), surely this has got to stop. On the energy front I think that Germany is the most exposed.

I guess that there’s a real difficulty getting all the different players to agree to apply the same sanctions consistently.

Back in 1942, the interconnectedness was much less than it is now.

I genuinely don’t think it was, what has changed is technology has just supercharged it. If you look at where raw materials came from 50,100,250 years ago those trade routes are still the same ones that they are now it’s just technology has made everything faster, bigger and cheaper. Countries like Russia still need ice free ports China and Australia – for example are still largely selling that same bundle of goods that they did 50 years ago.

The central idea though; that trade makes wars less likely is nonsense, War is just capitalism with the nicer edges rubbed off.

The forecasts of banks (that you can see in papers like the FT) Is that Russia starts to default by April if the current levels of sanctions are kept up, and at that point; it’s game over really.

I’m not clear how quickly game over happens? or what it actually means? Starvation for the Russian People? No ammo for the troops? China revoking their tacit support? An uprising in Russia that sees the President replaced?
I’m not sure if, when faced with the realities of game over, does a madman with Nuclear weapons risk going out with a bang?

The effect on the average Russian is going to be dramatic, and in the short term prices will go up for us as well – untangling what is inflation, COVID, Brexit, War in Russia will be hard though.

so that actually suits the current UK government: not their fault, they were saving the world!

Anyone know:
Does the typical Russian get paid weekly or monthly?
What level of savings does the typical Russian household have?

so that actually suits the current UK government: not their fault, they were saving the world!

Yeah pretty much I reckon. Any critism of cost of living rises are going to be deflected by the Tories by saying “Putin” like a magic talisman. I’m willing to bet money that champagne corks were popped at the Johnson household as all his woes were swept away…

“Events dear boy, events…”

I genuinely don’t think it was

Correct me, but Germany and Japan were very isolated and disconnected before they “kicked” off. Both were sanctioned and when you’re a pariah and a lot of what you are making is high tech fighters etc. well, the market you can sell to is pretty small and not profitable.

The countries that were trading and connected didn’t start that mess.

Correct me, but Germany and Japan were very isolated and disconnected before they “kicked” off.

No, that’s not really a good description of their situation. But a thread about a current war in Ukraine’s probs. not the best place for a discussion of the reasons why 2nd WW happened

I think that we’re still trading oil and gas with Russia (Boris doesn’t think sanctioning Russian oil is the right move), surely this has got to stop. On the energy front I think that Germany is the most exposed.

In fairness to Boris (not often you’ll hear me say that!) he knows he’s playing a very fine balancing act. The public are obsessed with the cost of petrol – if he plays it wrong that, not covid, not parties, not immigration, not brexit, but the price of driving your car to the golf course / mtb trails / shopping centre could be the end of his government. If he manages to get the British public demanding policies that increase immigration AND push up petrol prices he’ll have achieved something no other British prime minister has ever achieved. I think its actually quite a clever move.

War is just capitalism with the nicer edges rubbed off.

There were wars before capitalism. There have been wars fought between socialist countries. Equating war with capitalism is utterly useless in explaining anything.

I’m not clear how quickly game over happens? or what it actually means? Starvation for the Russian People? No ammo for the troops? China revoking their tacit support? An uprising in Russia that sees the President replaced?

Russia still needs raw materials for production. It can’t pay up front, it can’t promise to pay, it’s not got access to it’s own foreign income accounts and can’t access any other sources  can’t pay in it’s own currency; the Ruble ain’t worth shit, and there are already loan repayments with western and Chinese banks that are coming due. No materials, factories close, workers aren’t paid…and you know the rest

I’m not sure if, when faced with the realities of game over, does a madman with Nuclear weapons risk going out with a bang?

Nope; the Chinese negotiate a ceasefire (is where I think this is going)

Correct me, but Germany and Japan were very isolated and disconnected before they “kicked” off.

Japan kicked off in 1941 because they were disconnected against their will. They were totally dependent on imported oil, rubber, etc. The U.S. gave them an ultimatum to either withdraw from China or face crippling sanctions. The Japanese leaders rejected the ultimatum and decided that they needed to go to war while they still could. Catastrophic mistake.

But a thread about a current war in Ukraine’s probs. not the best place for a discussion of the reasons why 2nd WW happened

I don’t know, if we want to evaluate the appetite of various people for continued conflict, then history is the only guide we have to do that. Most historians point to the price the German people paid after WW1 being a contributing factor to WW2. While the pictures coming from Ukraine anger me enough to wish the Russian people be left in the economic stone age for years, the rational part of me knows this sows a bad seed for future decades.

More recently, one of the issues which made Iraq a disaster was that, during the war itself, no-one considered what would happen in the aftermath.

We need to defeat Putin, but we also need to understand that military defeat does not deliver peace.

Equating war with capitalism is utterly useless in explaining anything.

Yeah got me, and this war isn’t even about capitalism. But I’d still argue that the idea that trade or interconnectedness makes humans less likely to go to war isn’t a very good rule of thumb. I could make a pretty convincing argument that mercantilism or capitalism has been the a major cause of interstate war since ooohhhh, about the 15thC.

No materials, factories close, workers aren’t paid…and you know the rest

No I don’t – I genuinely don’t know what happens at that point. I could perhaps predict it for a rational government or a population that is well informed about what is going on, but I have no idea what happens in Putin’s Russia.

the Chinese negotiate a ceasefire (is where I think this is going)

A ceasefire would be a good outcome right now – its a temporary measure. It would seem sensible for China to do this before their loans are defaulted on. In terms of lasting security I don’t understand what that looks like if they’ve already started defaulting on loans? e.g. I could imagine a totally bankrupt Russia with a different leadership keen to rebuild, agreeing that the west would bail out its Chinese loans if it got rid of its nuclear arsenal so that the threat of the same shit again is massively reduced. I can’t see Putin ever considering that, he’d rather his own people starve than not have that ultimate threat.

Naive question for the armchair military experts – with the Russian mega-convoy stuck outside Kyiv, why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins? Or are they doing that and it’s just not widely reported?

BBC News – Why doesn’t Ukraine attack the Russian convoy? And other questions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60617145

That’s a great question- not sure if the experts have an answer either^^. I had assumed that the Russians had them pinned down with artillery fire, but what do I know 🤷‍♂️

Have we done the 20yr Russian athlete displaying the Z symbol on the podium yet at the Qatar Apparatus World Cup?

Doesn’t bode well for the young generation overthrowing Putin given he should have access to non Russian news.

had assumed that the Russians had them pinned down with artillery fire, but what do I know 🤷‍♂️

Who knows? I’m sure it is defended in some regard, and significant resources are having to be mustered to resupply it at that distance from the Belarus border, so just having it sitting there is chewing through diesel, rations and manpower that could be deployed differently. Apparently properly cold weather is on the way for Ukraine, which could add to the problems for it.

Have we done the 20yr Russian athlete displaying the Z symbol on the podium yet at the Qatar Apparatus World Cup?

Ironically, he came third, and a Ukrainian gymnast won, so he should be displaying an ‘L’, really.

Doesn’t bode well for the young generation overthrowing Putin given he should have access to non Russian news.

We don’t know if this is something he did voluntarily or at the behest of coaches and whatever FSB agent is trailing around after his team. Russia doesn’t have access to a lot of international sporting events right now.

State stooge ?

The more I see that “Z” symbol, especially in its red and black form, the more I’m convinced that Putin’s “denazification” line is the most horrific example of accusing others of using your own tactics.

Naive question for the armchair military experts – with the Russian mega-convoy stuck outside Kyiv, why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins? Or are they doing that and it’s just not widely reported?

Theres a few theories.

One is that the convoy could still defend itself, so it’s less effort for teh Ukraine forces to conserve thier effort and resourses and just starve them out, if the convoy isn’t going anywhere or getting re-supplied.

They’ve flooded the area where it is so it can’t move anyway.

i was thinking the ‘Z’ is becoming a symbol like the swasticka

why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins?

Guessing that since it’s basically stuck anyway they would rather use their resources to try and stop the cities being shelled.

But, yeah, nukes.

Yeah, Mutually Assured Destruction :-(

I see the Home Office response continues to be ‘world-beating’ and generous. Apparently they’ve processed over 100 applications so far. Though there’s still no processing point at Calais and they’re still being directed to go to Paris to apply for a visa, which will then take a week for a decision, which will invariably be ‘computer says no’

You couldn’t make it up

This country is an absolute embarrassment