Ukraine

There was a thread for less important things related to the conflict but you asked for it to be closed down and you got your way, otherwise I’d have posted it on there

I feel that the wider implications of the sanctions brought in because of the war are appropriate here because they are part of the emerging situation.

That other thread got closed because there was nothing of value of interest happening on it, just entrenched bickering about who was the most racist. And that’s all I’m going to say about that here.

Need to start making “things” again.

Isn’t that the truth. But we can’t all make the same things. And we need to grow things. But can’t all grow the same things.

But all a sidetrack in this thread. Whereas oil and gas dependancy is an important issue as regards Russia and Ukraine (and many other wars). Time to double efforts to move to renewables and storage. No more than double… throw everything at it.

“LOL! I am trying to figure out if EU will be affected more or far east (developing country). I think the latter will be affected soon and many will suffer (financially).”

By the far East do you mean Middlesbrough?

just entrenched bickering about who was the most racist. And that’s all I’m going to say about that here.

That is obviously not true. Some people pointed out that there were allegations of serious racism by the authorities on the Ukraine boarders, and some people questioned whether it was really such an important issue under the circumstances and/or whether it had perhaps been exaggerated.

At no time was there a discussion “about who was the most racist”

And that’s all I’m going to say on the matter.

Round and round and round.

By the far East do you mean Middlesbrough?

The impact on developed countries will not be as severe as those in developing countries (SE Asia) as they are not financially strong. The last financial crisis in the far east was very hard and the current pandemic has also make life rather unbearable for many.

Isn’t that the truth. But we can’t all make the same things. And we need to grow things. But can’t all grow the same things.

You need the manufacturing capability back regardless of how simple that can be. Yes, growing stuff as well. Need to accelerate all of them to be honest.

From the start of war Putin’s objective has always been a big chuck of Ukraine and anything more (whole if possible) will be a bonus. He will push as far as he can and to take whatever he gains.

At best Putin will gain some southern territory near Crimea and every city he gets will gave been bombed to crap
And the territory he does take will mean years of insurgency the West is already supporting

His attack on Kyiv is desperately over extended, he’s lost 1000s of troops including a lot of officers, and elite units decimated.
His much vaunted revamp of the Russian military seems to have been a joke, the Ukrainians have captured $100s of millions of his equipment (they have at lest 4 of his state of the art Pantsir missile platforms at $15m a pop!)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putins-forces-in-ukraine-war-are-decimated-says-uk-defence-chief-x7khnbfzq

He’s grossly underestimated Biden, who managed to convince the Germans to shut down Nordstream 2 and has rallied round and made Russia the most sanctioned country in the world, the Rouble has collapsed he’s too scared to reopen his stock market.
Meanwhile Biden is providing Ukraine with real time intelligence that’s making Russian airforce look like amateurs, 17,000 American antitank weapons delivered to Ukrainians

Now Sweden & Finland now want to join NATO

And Moldova, Georgia & Ukraine are being fast tracked to EU membership

Exactly the opposite of what he wanted

If this is what a Putin win looks like, what would failure have been?

Talking to Chewkws strongman point, one of the problems with negotiations between the West and Russia or China is that any negotiation isn’t nation to nation, it’s nation to administration.

In Democracies, one administration replaces another every four years or so. That can lead to negotions made by one administration being torn up by the next, they can do this because they have a democratic mandate.

So autocratic leaders look at our politicians as temporary, here today, gone tomorrow. It’s a weakness in the democratic system that they recognise and seek to play to their advantage but beyond that comes the question of honour, they see us as dishonarable and don’t trust us not to renege on any bilateral agreement.

Honour plays a more important part in most societies around the word but we give it too little consideration.. Who would trust us? Gadaffi made a deal with the West, giving up chemical weapons and look where he ended up.

Oh that deal? That was with the last guy…

And the territory he does take will mean years of insurgency the West is already supporting

Let him have that place to gain peace otherwise that place will become the sparks that set the fire.

His attack on Kyiv is desperately over extended, he’s lost 1000s of troops including a lot of officers, and elite units decimated.

That’s because he miscalculated but the next person will not.

He’s grossly underestimated Biden, who managed to convince the Germans to shut down Nordstream 2 and has rallied round and made Russia the most sanctioned country in the world, the Rouble has collapsed he’s too scared to reopen his stock market.

I don’t think he underestimated Biden.
As for sanctioned that effect is still unknown yet as they will dig deep as hardy people.

Talking to Chewkws strongman point, one of the problems with negotiations between the West and Russia or China is that any negotiation isn’t nation to nation, it’s nation to administration.

Whatever it takes to stop the situation escalating is the current objective. Doesn’t matter who is talking to who.

Since European civilisation first began it has been in their nature to be ruled by a powerful dictator (absolute monarch, emperor, whatever) We have also seen periodic continent-wide conflicts, 100yrs war, 30yrs war, 7yrs war, Napoleonic wars, first World War, second World War just to name the obvious biggies.
Why do we think the unusual period of relative calm of the last 70yrs should be the new world order and not a weird blip?
.

Honour plays a more important part in most societies around the word but we give it too little consideration.. Who would trust us? Gadaffi made a deal with the West, giving up chemical weapons and look where he ended up.

Oh that deal? That was with the last guy…

See also Trump and the Iran nuclear deal. Why would Iran agree another one with Biden when the one they agreed with Obama only lasted twenty minutes?
And of course the Budapest memorandum. Russia has undoubtedly made the bigger breach there but we, the US and UK, are (probably understandably) reluctant to go all out in fulfilling our end of the bargain. We are seeing some action now, but this should have been done in 2014

The problem is that Putin believed his own hype

That Ukrainians wanted to be liberated from their nazi overlords and would throw down their arms & run.
The Germans would never not buy his gas.
The Russian army was now stronger than ever & not crippled by corruption & incompetence.
The West is disunited and world never agree harsh sanctions.
That Biden was clueless and wouldn’t know how to counter Putin….
(When in fact Biden had been sending advisors to Ukraine for months)

So, what does that beer math mean?

The Ukrainians are using the late Brigadier Richard Simpkin's "Hammer & anvil" tactics with artillery, airpower & irregulars to throttle Russian supply lines.

US defense analysts Stephan Blank and Phillip Karber were sent to Ukraine dozens
9/

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 7, 2022

All wrong

“Why do we think the unusual period of relative calm of the last 70yrs should be the new world order and not a weird blip?”

In our house, if we start feeling a little too complacent about our little bubble of civilisation, we pull up a couple of episodes of “Vikings”, to remind us what we are really like as a species.

The problem is that Putin believed his own hype

Not disputing that.
The question is how to make him realise that humanity is better off with some peace.

(When in fact Biden had been sending advisors to Ukraine for months)

That’s the problem. If that is true then there are some truths in what they say in the east. The Chinese (CCCP) have been saying that the wolf pack has been slowly circulating and ganging on the bear. Remember one swipe from the bear can mean instant death. Then you have the dragon as backup while Saint George is having a snooze.

The question is how to make him realise that humanity is better off with some peace.

He won’t, partly because he’s surrounded himself with clueless yesmen
But that won’t change the fact that his supply lines are critically overstretched no matter how much he rants & raves

That’s the problem. If that is true then there are some truths in what they say in the east. The Chinese (CCCP) have been saying that the wolf pack has been slowly circulating and ganging on the bear.

That’d be true if they were advising them on how to attack, but they were advising on how to defend & China smart enough to know that too.

The irony is that Putins gamble could go so wrong that he ends up losing lunhansk & Donetsk to a Ukrainian counter offensive (tho I think that’s unlikely unless things go really downhill for Russians)

This is a mess entirely of his own making

Worryingly for Putin coldweather coming in, wind chill bringing temps down to -20
Thats bad news for 1000s of Russian conscripts with no fuel and food

And obviously even worse for many more civilians being shelled in cities that ha e been without power or water for days now

He won’t, partly because he’s surrounded himself with clueless yesmen
But that won’t change the fact that his supply lines are critically overstretched no matter how much he rants & raves

Then can the “yes” men be convinced to increase their courage?
I won’t count on his logistic overstretched.

This is a mess entirely of his own making

I won’t count the chickens before the eggs are hatch as this is not a simple situation that can be solved easily.

The question is how to make him realise that he is better off with some peace.

Fixed that for you. Lots of good points otherwise. Keep at it. Perhaps a bit less of the bad poetry though.

Fixed that for you. Lots of good points otherwise. Keep at it. Perhaps a bit less of the bad poetry though.

How to make him realise? That is the point.
He will keep going until he hit the wall (stalemate), then you still need to leave room for him to save face. Perhaps even “thank” him for not advancing his ambition further. That’s the problem.

p/s: Simmering deep down is the concept of liberalism which they Cannot accept or be imposed upon. They see that as a threat to their way of life. We just have to accept who they are so long as they remain as they are i.e. no invasion.

binners
Full Member

But even by the standards of Brexit Britain it’s absolutely shameful whats happening at the moment. There was an immigration lawyer on Radio 4 at lunchtime saying that the Home Office is completely unfit for purpose and despite Boris’s bullshit words, they have approved a mere 1% of applications for Ukrainians trying to enter the UK.

For a long time- at least since May was home secretary, but probably longer, that’s just when I first started coming across it- the Home Office has achieved the government’s political aims via incompetence and underresourcing. May was I suppose more subtle about it- she scored points over and over by leading a failing department into failure then saying “it’s totally unacceptable that the home office has failed, I’m taking action”. Meanwhile they were able to keep a load of people out of the country simply by failing to process their visa applications. She never dared to say “we’re going to reduce student visas by X” but she could set up the failure so that X number of student visas would be delayed or wrongly rejected or so that the rules would arbitrarily change on impossible timescales.

Their favourite game became changing the rules, then not even briefing their own staff on the new rules, so that when we phoned up and said “We’ve got the new rules, they’re unclear, should we interpret it like this” they’d say “Nah you’re right, they’re unclear, so we don’t know.” and we’d say “OK, well we have to do something so we’re going to interpret it this way, is that OK” and they’d say “Fine, but if we later decide you’re doing it wrong, it’ll be your fault and it’ll endanger your entire organisation”. Over and over and over.

Patel’s less subtle about it because she doesn’t need to be subtle about it, and she’s just hte sort of person that will take that as an invitation. But it’s just exactly the same process, just with the quiet part loud.

Kimbers, I was your post and substituted Putin for Stalin.

That Ukrainians wanted to be liberated from their smallholdings and wanted to be put onto collectivised farms

The Germans would never go against their bilateral agreement.

The Russian army was now stronger than ever & the Finns would simply roll over.

All wrong.

They’re pretty hardy those Russians, Putin needs a soft landing to stop the carnage. Peace by negotiation might be the better avenue rather than thoughts of some all out victory.

How to make him realise? That is the point.

Absolutely it is. But who the hell knows!

Another great post by the way. Keep at it.

I was going to say that your post looks like it’s taken from Catch 22, but maybe ‘Kafkaesque’ would be more appropriate in the circumstances.

@ Klunk

Crikey that clip of Yes Prime Minister does not sound funny now …

That series is still utterly essential viewing. The salami slicing line really resonates there, doesn’t it.

After seeing how badly the Russian military equipment is faring, other countries must be wondering if his nuclear arsenal will be in similarly bad shape.

Surely it must be in good enough shape. It might even be in great shape, I read somewhere they have a hardon for missiles as it gives you more threat per unit cost.

capturing Ukraines ports will gullotine the Ukranian economy

Huge handicap of being landlocked, even if an economy doesn’t rely so much on bulk exports.

all the talk of increasing arms spending, I for one seriously hope billions are being invested into a strategic counter to nukes.

Read a comment the other day that basically Europe took a 30 year holiday from defence spending after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As I’ve said before, I’m pretty sure the Russians could turn up the attrition level many times.

It doesn’t feel like they’re really trying. Maybe they’re holding the good stuff back for NATO.

I thought it was interesting that the Russians have opened land corridors to Russia and Belarus only now. Tells you that they don’t want people flight I think.

I think they do – towards Europe. Refugees are weapons now. All those people put pressure on housing and services, need jobs – all things that some amount of citizens don’t want, and are willing to support politicians that promise to do something about it.

About these cards we the west are now playing against China with sanctions, SWIFT etc.. The world is watching, including China, and will be developing mitigations for our measures ready for the next adventure. Our things will be less effective next time.

Also think how important easy to use weapons such as NLAW have been in this conflict, where we’re providing hardware and intel/advice but no actual fighting. I wonder what else we’d be providing, if say counter-artillery weapons existed with a smartphone app simple operation.

And on the protests in Russia, the brave folk, how many do they actually have capacity to arrest and keep in custody? Must be using warehouses for them by now; need a lot of space for 5k or 10k people.

I do wonder how long Zelensky has left to live. Posting videos from the palace, revealing where he is right down to a specific window. Why wouldn’t Putin drop one of the thermobaric bombs or ballistic missile or something and level the place. He’s the guy of the moment, it’d be a great loss. Ok he’ll leave before posting, and there is a value in showing the public he’s there, but it seems pretty risky that he’d be monitored and targeted.

I suspect that’s where he was a couple of hours ago, I doubt it’s live.
As someone said above though, if he is killed who do you negotiate with/make demands of?

Separately, some members of congress are beginning to advocate for a non-kinetic no-fly zone – something to the effect of using electromagnetic pulse, sonar, and cyber to keep Russian jets on the ground so they can never take off. Unclear how much support this will end up getting

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022

Everyone please take a moment to appreciate this Twitter showdown between US astronaut Scott Kelly and the (highly unhinged) head of Russia's space agency. https://t.co/ESMAdFfRAJ

— Dan Peleschuk (@dpeleschuk) March 7, 2022

Димон, ты почему удалил этот твит? Не хочешь, чтобы все увидели, какой ты в сущности ребёнок? pic.twitter.com/xSScT2cSGu

— Scott Kelly (@StationCDRKelly) March 7, 2022

^^ Really has a feeling of desperation to it doesn’t it? Nukes… Kill off the ISS… I suppose to be in power in such a regime you have to almost outdo Putin in your ravings into the void.

I think the world is at the point of saying, “come on then if your hard enough”. Or rather, simply calling his bluff. If it doesn’t happen now it’s evident it will have to be called at some point and probably better now than later. Crimea showed us that. He’ll just throw his nuclear dummy out of the pram everytime he doesn’t get his own way otherwise.

Makes me think of Putin recently saying that, “the sanctions are akin to a declaration of war.”

Really? If so why hasn’t he declared a (real) war as a response, an easy “in” to making the west the aggressor he desperatly wants?

He’s a threat, of course he is but im not sure he is deluded enough to consign his own life to the nuclear badlands just yet.

It doesn’t feel like they’re really trying.

No, this is the ‘good stuff’.  I think I’m right in saying that 100% of the troop build-up on the border last winter is now committed into Ukraine, any more that they want to send has to be mobilised from other parts and moved from tehir bases inside Russia.

Oh that deal? That was with the last guy…

Which means one has to deal with change, nothing is immutable and like a marriage one should never take the other party to the agreement for granted. The agreement is signed then the parties have to maintain their relationship and Mr Putin is seemingly unable to continue discussion and contact.He would appear to be singularly unable to cope with an ever changing world and it is his and Russia’s weakness.

Ukrainian military has confirmed Gen Gerassimov killed (chief of staff 41st Army) in Kharkiv. They got this info as the Russian secure network “Era” isn’t working and the Russians are using local SIMs to talk to each other un-encrypted. Era needs 3G masts to hook onto…which the other Russian units have targeted and blown up.

One of the senior Russians that they intercepted was Shevchenko a senior boss in the FSB, who’s number was identified by looking it up on the now published Ukrainian military intelligence list. via open source look-up (ie the Ukrainians googled it)

So much for the Russian Bear…

The supporters of Ukraine (cant use “allies” or Vlad the Invader will come round and let my tires down) need to take the initiative, knock and keep Putin off balance and whilst working hard to give the Russians – specifically the military – an “honourable” way out.

The more Putin makes rash decisions whilst very reasonable offers are made to other agents of the state the easier it is for him to have a “medical emergency” and more pragmatic others to step in.

“Giving” him bits of Ukraine wont stop him pushing, threatening and warmongering – did it stop Hitler, Stalin or even Britain expanding its empire? – no. Not at all.

It’s always blokes over 45 years old – we should be put on the bloody carousel when we reach 40.

Is Vlad still getting pudding? That could be the issue here. Sanction pudding, job jobbed.

The more Putin makes rash decisions

From their group’s (Putin and the people around him) perspective – a wonky understanding of recent history, they’re not making ‘rash’ decisions.

“Giving” him bits of Ukraine wont stop him pushing, threatening and warmongering

Honestly, looking at a map from the 2nd of March and a map of today…My thoughts are that Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine is pretty much dead in the water. I don’t think now his military has got the capability to take much more. I don’t think the rest of the world need give in to any of Putin’s current demands.

$90m state of the art Russian ship taken out by soviet era artillery truck

Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov reportedly targeted in GRAD shelling in Black Sea last night https://t.co/Ps8eZWvl0B via @TarasChmut #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/IpgyVgopAX

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) March 7, 2022

“Giving” him bits of Ukraine wont stop him pushing

Nothing that Ukraine would find acceptable would be acceptable to Putin.

And then what? This is the tricky part. Having militarily seized parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, Putin cant just declare 'Mission Accomplished' and head home. Indeed, in many ways an even more difficult phase in the Russian invasion would start.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 8, 2022

1) Having unleased a humanitarian catastrophe and destroyed the international order, that the sanctions are then dropped or lessened. If not, Russia will be left confronting a long war with a declining economy.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 8, 2022

3) That the Ukrainian population of the occupied territories forgets its Ukrainian identity and the fact that their friends and families have been killed in this war, and somehow accepts annexation and doesnt resist.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 8, 2022

Why do we think the unusual period of relative calm of the last 70yrs should be the new world order and not a weird blip?

Because the world is more interconnected than it ever has been, and inter-dependency reduces the motivations for wars. Obviously they can still happen as we’re seeing.