Ukraine

South West? In the general direction of Serbia?

No, the whole of Europe. Ukraine’s pretty massive

Looks like there is now ongoing talks about the US/ EU dropping the purchase of Russian oil.

That a huge step if it happens. It’ll obviously “hurt” us but I’m struggling to find any even half reasonable reason it shouldn’t happen.

Particularly after watching the news just now.

kimbers
Full Member
and this

Did they wash that before they pictured it? I’m calling bullshit on that yin tbh.

if nothing else how did they manage to set up a slick looking press conference when their dep. prime minister has to make do with sitting in front of a bunch of sand bags?!

It’s a table and a logo board. Unian is a (the?) Ukranian news agency so pretty sure they’d have had one of those lying around ready to go.

The fairly rambling nature and the fact the claims are fairly down-to-earth make it seem plausible. We can all believe in incompetence, shit management, people being kept in the dark on the reasons for poor decisions, can’t we? If it’s fake, it’s a very very good fake so kudos to the Ukranians for that too.

wow

People asked in the Mud and Truck maintenance threads earlier what the Ukrainians could do to make the rasputisa mud worse.

They opened the Kyiv reservoir to accomplish just that.

The Russians pushed three Tank/Mech divisions into a flood plain the Ukrainians flooded https://t.co/39SCHaOZwd

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 5, 2022

I thought Saddam denied having WMDs throughout? Or am I remembering that wrong?

I think he was a bit equivocal. Obviously he didn’t want to say he had them as that would have legitimised the war. But proving he didn’t have them would make an invasion much easier.
Why did we pick on him and not NK? One reason might be that NK definitely does have them! Same reason we are being cautious around Russia just now, if they didn’t have them this would be a huge conventional war by now, like the first Gulf war but much bigger.

It’s a table and a logo board. Unian is a (the?) Ukranian news agency so pretty sure they’d have had one of those lying around ready to go.

I hope so. I really want it to be true!!

kimbers
Full Member
wow

That yin actually is interesting.

There bit pictured is actually only the bit of land outside Demydiv and the loch, but if you look at the blue lines it stretches all the way down to Irpin, which I would imagine would also be flooded, which is where a lot of heavy fighting is at the moment. So that does seem to have blocked of the northern approach at least.

I see they are saying tiktok are suspending live stream in Russia? Surely the last thing needed is social media to go offline in Russia? (unless the gov control it, but canny see that?) What’s the story there, is everything else still up?

welshfarmers point about not planting those fields was a very valid one

https://www.ft.com/content/457ba29e-f29b-4677-b69e-a6e5b973cad6?shareType=nongift

Ukraine & Russia account for 1/3rd of the worlds wheat exports

and last time prices were this high it sparked global protests and the arab spring

I’ve an appointment in town tomorrow not far from the Russian consulate.

I’m stopping by the garden centre and buying some sunflower seeds to throw over the wall.

Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel

In his latest video address, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky blasts NATO for its refusal to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, says it's a sign of weakness. Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel pic.twitter.com/dxWuXnA53K

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 5, 2022

That’s a pretty grim condemnation.

kin ell!

Londongrad laundromat: Russian?? bank assets in the UK?? possibly coming under sanctions: 6 times the amount of similar Russian assets in the whole of the EU. These UK-based assets are equivalent in value to one eighth of Britain's GDP and about one fourth of Russia's GDP. ??? https://t.co/XgbnZUQkSp

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) March 6, 2022

I’ve just watched this analysis. And admit to being wrong in my own analysis of the conflict and of the motives behind it, but I ask that I also have followed and been influenced by the proxy wars, not just of the late 20th century, but going back to the beginning of the 20th century, where we can account for tens of millions of deaths. Not just many hundreds of thousands, or a couple of million, but tens of millions of people like you and I, and that in itself can colour anyone perception of who is right and who is wrong.

But I feel that in light of current events, this position has changed.

It’s a bit of a watch, nearly 2 hours, and the conclusion isn’t promising for freedom to emerge unscathed. But I think there is light at the end of the tunnel, and the prospects of any world ending events are not as bleak as they initially appeared. Maybe the tabloids have much to answer for in that respect, but maybe that’s something that should be seriously addressed in the future.

I don’t think anyone can dispute what Dr. Frederick W. Kagan has to say.

I think maybe I can get some sleep now. Not just because it’s ten past one in the morning, but because it’s now easier on the mind.

I hope this guy’s analysis is correct.

To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:
1. Ukraine’s condition as a country
2. Russian military’s condition
3. The West’s geopolitical condition

— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) March 6, 2022

I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.

— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) March 6, 2022

As far as Saddam Hussein and WMDs go, the irony is that Saddam believed that Iraq had a secret WMD program running but his scientists were too scared to tell him that they couldn’t make any progress due to sanctions. They kept filling out reports about the progress they were pretending to make. Saddam was smart enough to know that uncertainty was his best strategy. If he came out and openly revealed a program (in defiance of UN resolutions), then it would force the US to invade. By hinting at it, he kept Iran and other opponents unwilling to attack him.

It was also obvious that he could not use WMDs first, they are only useful as a doomsday weapon to deter attack. Once you use them, you’ve opened the door for your opponent to go nuclear on you. Same calculation applies to Putin – going nuclear would be a desperate last resort. Irony with Saddam was that he didn’t think he was bluffing, he thought he was making real threats but he didn’t actually have the WMDs he thought he had to back up the threats. After seeing how badly the Russian military equipment is faring, other countries must be wondering if his nuclear arsenal will be in similarly bad shape.

Aaaaand I’ve been banned from twitter.

Apparently saying the Jacob Rees Mogg is a next Tuesday of the highest order is speech.

@dyna-ti only skipped a few points thru but wow, peterson is a moron, kagan bloke seems clued up tbf

It’s a bit of a watch, nearly 2 hours

Maybe you need to summarize the key points if you think it’s useful. You have a record of being spectacularly wrong about Putin, nobody’s going to watch a two hour video on your recommendation.

I don’t think anyone can dispute what Dr. Frederick W. Kagan has to say.

I’ll translate that. You agree with him and don’t understand why anybody could disagree with you. Don’t make the mistake of assuming that anyone who disagrees with you is doing so out of bad intentions.

To be honest thols, you’ve accused me of all sorts, so lets not start that again. I stated that i thought Putin was concerned about the west encroaching in. Nothing more, nothing less. you damn well accused me of of being party to every evil in the world, while at the same time denying anyone in the west was capable of such a thing.

So watch it or dont, but get off my back.

I don’t think anyone can dispute what Dr. Frederick W. Kagan has to say.

This is the war monger that ran around with a stiffy whilst influencing US policy before/during the Iraq war war?, I’ll pass thanks.

We are all pulling another late shift I see guys?

I’m well into a book about the zombie apologise and yet it is still a nice little escape from the crap going on in real life right now.

thols2
Free Member
It’s a bit of a watch, nearly 2 hours

nobody’s going to watch a two hour video on your recommendation.

I’m actually 40 minutes in, it’s interesting stuff. Peterson is a bit of a plonker, his guest is interesting though, it’s a historical discussion so far.

“No, the whole of Europe. Ukraine’s pretty massive”

Really?, sorry, couldn’t resist. It just occurred to me that Serbia is probably Russia’s biggest ally when they look West, that’s all. What’s in the way? Hungary and Romania. A corridor to that Adriatic cutting off Greece, like it was back in the day.

I know Yugoslavia had an arms length relationship with the USSR but Serbia now enjoys a better relationship with Russia. If his dream is to recreate some form of the Soviet Union then heading southwest would be an option and potentially an easier one than heading straight for Berlin..It would certainly fit the narrative.

Just a thought but I think we’re headed for a protracted stalemate in Ukraine. Had he taken over in 3 days though, I’d be pretty nervous if I were in Romania, Hungary, North Macedonia etc.

You agree with him

Pretty much yeah. Certainly he has better credentials for talking about this type of thing than some random unknown on twitter.

I’d be pretty nervous if I were in Romania, Hungary, North Macedonia etc.

Possibly even further afield.

I think we’re headed for a protracted stalemate in Ukraine.

This seems as plausible as anything else.

As we ask "how will this end?" one possible answer (more likely than Putin caving or being overthrown) is that the Russian army will start to disintegrate as it did at the end of World War I — battered, poorly supplied, unable to move forward, not allowed to move backward. 1/ https://t.co/Us6ALCdQ7x

— Tom Malinowski (@Malinowski) March 7, 2022

Countries that have a good relationship with Russia that Putin has no intention of absorbing into greater Russia;

Serbia, Iran, Syria.

Putin would surely see any countries inbetween those three and Russia as a thorn in Russia’s side and thinks they would be better either absorbed into the motherland or bought into line.

Perhaps we’re to focused on the Baltic? As much as Putin has desires in that direction, that area is going to be so heavilly defended now.

Speculation on my part, not least because Russian military capability has been severely diminished and might need rebuilding and Ukraine is likely to keep him pretty busy for the foreseeable. He has just kicked off a non nuclear arms race.

But were talking about Putin here……

I really worry about the non nuclear arms race thing because Putin won’t be able to keep up, which in turn makes his actions even more unpredictable.

And I’m sure some posters will jump on here and start talking about the military industrial complex but I won’t be shutting them down, once that machine gets rolling there will be so many contracts to sign and so much money to be made that it will take on a momentum all of it’s own.

Putin could switch the narrative away from NATO ‘expansion’ and posit the direct threat of massive and ever increasing quantities of arms being deployed on Russia’s borders.

Stuck this together which is just a collation of the images from this site. Thought it was interesting.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

I really worry about the non nuclear arms race thing because Putin won’t be able to keep up, which in turn makes his actions even more unpredictable.

Russia’s military is looking like a joke at the moment. It’s quite possible that Georgia and other border countries with ongoing disputes will try to kick out the Russian occupying forces and join NATO, but I think the Russian weakness will generally convince NATO that they don’t need Cold War levels of conventional arms to deter Russia.

What seems more likely to me is that, if Russia does collapse economically, the U.S. will reduce its military presence in Europe and focus more on Asia. China is looking a lot more of a conventional military threat than Russia is. Russia just does not have the economic capacity to build a high-tech military that could threaten NATO so their only hope is to partner up with China. China has the money and industrial capacity, Russia has the technology. Russia will be a junior partner in that which will be humiliating.

Edit. When I see stuff like this, I gotta wonder whether Russian troops aren’t sabotaging their weapons because they don’t want to murder Ukrainian civilians.

Russian RBC-500 cluster bombs are showing a huge dud rate in Odessa bombings.

A RBC-500 cluster bomb unit contains PTAB-1M 268 submunitions and 253 (94%) were counted as duds by Ukrainian emergency services.

Note: Ukrainian Steel Balls????https://t.co/QCYzvyuOGp pic.twitter.com/doVkIGUR00

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 7, 2022

1 March, 2022, update. pic.twitter.com/VRDdF5yj4O

— Roman Motychak (@motytchak) March 2, 2022

Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel

I’m surprised its anything at all. I was under the impression any military aid was not to be supplied by NATO, but countries that are in NATO can do so of their own accord?

You know I’m generally not that worried about Nuclear War now I’ve read a bit more. It does seem to me that the idea of the Nuclear apocalypse might be slightly overdone and thing of Hollywood.

Firstly there aren’t the massive number of nukes these days. Most of the big ones have been replaced with ‘smaller’ 300-400kt size heads. The logic being that even a nuclear war is about capitulation and strategy. Why waste a nuke on a non-strategic target? No gains by just taking out civilians.

Maps of old showing massive clumsy 10mt bombs and the cities they might hit largely bear no connection to today.

The aim is to take out military targets not civilians. And the general understanding is that no one gains from complete Nuclear annihilation. And you have to get the support of your generals as a logical progression of war.

So I’m not saying it can’t be bad, clearly but let’s not let the Hollywood scenario take over.

Also the chap who created Nuke-map has a measured take.

Might help some be less anxious

So I've had a lot of people in my life asking me, informally, whether I thought Russia would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Here's my basic take. 1/

— Alex Wellerstein (@wellerstein) March 7, 2022

“If you take every weapon in existence today, approximately 6500 megatons between 15,000 warheads with an average yield of 433 KT, [11] and put a single bomb in its own 100 square mile grid… one bomb per grid (10 miles x 10 miles), you will contain >95% of the destructive force of each bomb on average within the grid it is in. [12] This means the total landmass to receive a destructive force from all the world’s nuclear bombs is an area of 1.5 million square miles. Not quite half of the United States and 1/38 of the world’s total land mass….”

And that would assume every missle was launched and hit.

Again I’m not saying it’s not bad it’s just not necessarily the absolute destruction i’d been led to believe.

Frankly I’d rather be quickly vaporised by a direct hit than live with the aftermath of a nuclear war, so thanks for the analysis, bit it doesn’t provide much comfort to me.

Russia’s military is looking like a joke at the moment.

I know what you meant – “joke” as in inept, incapable, badly managed – but IMHO, it’s still very poor phrasing.

Not really a “joke” when there’s innocent civilians being targeted and killed. Willing to bet that the refugees fleeing ruins are not sharing that thought…

Maybe it’s just me but I think it’s a poor choice of word.

It does appear that the main thrust of RF invasion seems to be the south – makes sense from many angles, logistics, 8 years of occupation, somewhat favourable local support, seems to be better lead, and still some amphibious support and obviously most of Ukraine’s ports (and the export trade that use them) are here. It’s going much better than the advance to Kyiv, which also makes some sense –  There’s lots of Russia social media traffic about talking Kyiv, It’s the capital, political centre, will be defended strongly, and so on. Notwithstanding the overall crappy nature of RF forces, I think the advance to Kyiv is a secondary target for the Russians hence the unpreparedness of the RF troops there.

The UK government thinking anyone gives a shit about what the UK government has to offer. It’s nothing.

We made ourselves a very small fish in a big pond with brexit.

@mattyfez ah okay, makes sense now :)

I know what you meant – “joke” as in inept, incapable, badly managed – but IMHO, it’s still very poor phrasing.

Ok, “inept” is probably a better word.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/russia-s-stock-market-to-remain-closed-through-tuesday-68G0Quk94o1jbIZX0HLO

The Russian stock market won’t open until at least Wednesday now. Is this the longest a stock market has remained closed? Especially as, according to Putin, this is during ‘peacetime’?!?

“If you take every weapon in existence today, approximately 6500 megatons between 15,000 warheads with an average yield of 433 KT, [11]

Yes, a mega-volcano has more explosive power than all the nuclear weapons combined. However, a full on nuclear war would lead to massive fires in every major urban area, plus millions of tonnes of irradiated soil being blown into the atmosphere. Large areas of the earth would be blanketed with clouds of toxic and radioactive smoke and dust.

Depositary receipts of the nation’s biggest lender, Sberbank of Russia PJSC, slumped 93% in London on Wednesday, while the state-run gas giant Gazprom PJSC fell 97%. Rosneft Oil Co. tumbled 70% and Lukoil PJSC declined 98%.

Quite satisfyingly, some of the larger Russian companies are also listed on the London stock exchange- and as above they have been wiped out. I had no idea it was this severe! No wonder Putin is looking desperate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/russia-keeps-stock-market-closed-in-longest-shutdown-since-1998