Ukraine

The speed with which Russia has been cut off from the world economy has been as stunning as the slowness with which Russian forces have advanced in Ukraine. But can Putin offset the de facto blockade by dealing with China? That would be harder than many imagine 1/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 5, 2022

What makes you think that us on the continent are better prepared?””

As andrewh and crazy-legs said.

Our understanding of the second world was very different to the rest of the continent. I grew up with tales of the doodlebugs and the blitz. There aren’t memorials to concentration camps at the bottom of my road, or mass grave sites etc.

The way we celebrate and glorify that conflict over here can only be seen as obscene by any of our European neighbours. 50 Sovietss died for every Briton for example, 5 French, over a dozen Germans. So while me might feel a little bit of sick in our mouths when we see a Liz Truss tweet, over there they vomit on the carpet when they see her.

British casualties made up less than one percent of the total number from WW2, yet there’s a lot in Britain who think we won it singlehandedly, with a bit of help from the Yanks. This government has been zealous in perpetuating that myth. We just don’t realise the contempt with which we are held across Europe for our behaviour .

@inkster – The number of people in the UK who believe we won WW2 alone is staggering.

British casualties made up less than one percent of the total number from WW2, et there’s a lot in Britain who think we won it singlehandedly, with a bit of help from the Yanks. This government has been zealous in perpetuating that myth. We just don’t realise the contempt with which we are held across Europe for our behaviour .

Hmmm. I laid a wreath for the KSLI dead (Op Market Garden) in Mook in 2009. Not a lot of contempt shown by the Dutch that day, some of whom lived through & remember that event quite clearly.

So while me might feel a little bit of sick in our mouths when we see a Liz Truss tweet, over there they vomit on the carpet when they see her.

Promoted above her pay grade.

Are you saying those Dutch people who were greatful for the sacrifices made by British troops on their behalf excuse the behaviour of our jingoistic prime minister and press?

As far as parallels between RF/Ukraine and China/Taiwan I believe the US has a legal obligation to protect Taiwan, so it’s a different proposition.
Having said that I think China will be very interested spectators to any US actions regarding Ukraine.

The way we celebrate and glorify that conflict over here can only be seen as obscene by any of our European neighbours. 50 Sovietss died for every Briton for example, 5 French, over a dozen Germans. So while me might feel a little bit of sick in our mouths when we see a Liz Truss tweet, over there they vomit on the carpet when they see her.

So glory in war is based on how many people died?
Perhaps we just did a better job or weren’t prepared to use our people as cannon fodder, or perhaps because we are an island nation and a land war never happened here has a huge bearing on casulaties?

And name me a country which hasn’t glorified a war that they ‘won’. As they say history is written by the victors.

The number of people in the UK who believe we won WW2 alone is staggering.

Sounds like you are one of the lucky ones who has enough nous to be able peak behind the curtain and see how countries work re propaganda and trying to promote feelings of patriotism- even democratic ones. I suppose what separates the less corrupt, more politically transparent nations such as ours (UK) is that it allows for dissenting voices to add some counterbalance and therefore, to some extent at least, the jingoistic rhetoric. What you do with that information is, of course, up to you.

Are you saying those Dutch people who were greatful for the sacrifices made by British troops on their behalf excuse the behaviour of our jingoistic prime minister and press?

It’s quite obvious what I’m saying.

I’m saying not all of Europe holds the UK in contempt. I care not for what they think of Liz Truss et al in this instance – just that I was overwhelmed by the gratitude shown to me that day for the sacrifices made by my grandfather & his colleagues. I cannot speak for the Dutch on their views of our current Gov – perhaps you should ask them?

I believe the US has a legal obligation to protect Taiwan, so it’s a different proposition.

No, there’s no treaty and Taiwan isn’t officially recognized as a country. The US position is to be ambiguous about it. If they openly sign a defense treaty with Taiwan, China will take that as a hostile act and the leaders will be compelled to invade. If they openly declare that they won’t support Taiwan, China will invade. The Chinese leaders use Taiwan to rally nationalistic support but that used to just be empty talk. Now that China is much more powerful economically and militarily, it’s easy for nationalist factions to demand that they go ahead and invade. Hopefully the Russian debacle in Ukraine will convince them that it will not be worth the enormous cost, even if they succeed.

It is astonishing how in terms of foreign policy and conflict all the Westminster parties always line up and sadly most people go in for defending ‘our’ ruling class against that of another country and loads of plebeian lives are lost on the way. Jingoism par excellence. Also how comes ‘oligarch’ is only ever applied to Russians, good gob it’s not as though we haven’t got enough of our own.

“or perhaps because we are an island nation and a land war never happened here has a huge bearing on casulaties?”

That’s the one, it has a bearing on how we see that war and this war. We were shielded from the worst arttrocities last time around which perhaps makes us less psycologicaly prepared for future conflicts and more eager to be gung-ho or jingoistic as a result.

I wasn’t attributing glory to the number of casualties, sorry if you read it that way.

“Also how comes ‘oligarch’ is only ever applied to Russians, good gob it’s not as though we haven’t got enough of our own”

Good point.

In many cases they should be called kleptocrats rather than oligarchs

No, there’s no treaty and Taiwan isn’t officially recognized as a country. The US position is to be ambiguous about it. If they openly sign a defense treaty with Taiwan, China will take that as a hostile act and the leaders will be compelled to invade. If they openly declare that they won’t support Taiwan, China will invade. The Chinese leaders use Taiwan to rally nationalistic support but that used to just be empty talk. Now that China is much more powerful economically and militarily, it’s easy for nationalist factions to demand that they go ahead and invade. Hopefully the Russian debacle in Ukraine will convince them that it will not be worth the enormous cost, even if they succeed.

Nicely summarised!

defending ‘our’ ruling class against that of another country

As a rule, I absolutely do not to that, and neither to many politicians, across all parties. In terms of Putin pushing Russian forces into Ukraine to take it by force… I, and unsurprisingly most politicians, absolutely are not siding with Putin or the actions Russia are currently taking. Stick to the subject of this thread, and tell us why we and/or our politicians should side with Putin in this particular war? Rather than condemn the offensive military actions being taken against a sovereign state? It is not the “ruling class” of Ukraine under bombardment, it is all the people of Ukraine. Stop the war. Putin must stop this war.

In many cases they should be called kleptocrats rather than oligarchs

I would say the difference is a kleptocrat is a government minister who uses their position to steal wealth, whereas an oligarch is a businessman (term used loosely) who uses close political ties to further line their pockets- essentally the same, but one is within government and the other without

Also how comes ‘oligarch’ is only ever applied to Russians, good job it’s not as though we haven’t got enough of our own.

This is a good point, we tend to call them ‘fatcats’ but that doesn’t illustrate the extent to which they lobby (ie influenece) government to further their own ends. Maybe labelling them oligarchs instead would be an effective way of starting to get that message over a bit more!

There are oligarchs in/from other countries. We rarely use that term in terms of the UK because of the divergence of ownership and control of large companies, especially those that also have political and/or social influences. The USA (arguably worldwide) tech industry is often said to have oligarchs though, is is not a term reserved only for Russian oligarchs at all. Our newspapers have been described as owned by oligarchs in the past… and I for one would like that description to become common again, ‘till we sort out media ownership/control in the UK. Pretty obvious what the barrier to describing the media owners in those terms might be…

an oligarch is a businessman (term used loosely) who uses close political ties to further line their pockets

The thing with the Russian oligarchs is they don’t really own their companies. They’re just a front for Putin who can throw them in jail and seize all their assets if they displease him. They’re really just managers, not true owners.

Air Marshall Philip Osbourn talking here about no fly zones (which he’s been involved with before) and the general strategic/military/political situation.

International help, from the ground up not just the top down, comes in all kinds of forms. This one is simple to understand, and pretty uncontroversial to applaud…

Lots of small, hopeful stories of solidarity from the border. Ran into a group of German paramedics from Frankfurt. They’ve travelled 11 hours in their ambulance bus to help, a vehicle they’ve had for 30 years. At the end of the day they’re handing over the bus to the Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/J8ARoRe5w9

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 5, 2022

The russian billionaires being sanctioned are both kleptocrats and oligarchs; they have become oligarchs through kleptocracy.

There are three simultaneous dynamics at play:

1) America's rampant secrecy provisions/loopholes.

Real estate, private equity, hedge funds, luxury goods—all have enjoyed decades-long exemptions from anti-money laundering regulations. (Plus secrecy in high-end artwork/crypto.)

— Casey Michel (@cjcmichel) March 6, 2022

Oh, FFS…

Vans are now being turned away at dover docks carrying aid for minimal value on commercial invoices – by the BRITS – not the french . They are enforcing the law 101% on humanitarian aid . Miffed and dumbfounded is an understatement

— ciaran the euro courier ???? (@vanmaneuro) March 6, 2022

It SEEMS that civilian staff are refusing to allow the issue of boarding passes , obsessed with the T1 export declaration / even zero rated invoices no longer suffice , I can’t help but think something is happening . Why refuse aid . There needs to be an agreement to get it out

— ciaran the euro courier ???? (@vanmaneuro) March 6, 2022

🇬🇧

“No, there’s no treaty and Taiwan isn’t officially recognized as a country. The US position is to be ambiguous about it.”

Yes, I read here that there was;
https://www.rferl.org/a/china-russia-ukraine-crisis-standish/31678140.html
but looking further into it I can see it’s not the case. However Trump, then Biden have both ramped up rhetoric over Taiwan. Scary times.

‘it is all the people of Ukraine. Stop the war’, you make my point very well.

This is interesting- anti war protests still going strong in Russia- 1,700 arrested today alone! 11,000 in total.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6224cce40ce87e491a0ee5e0%263%2C500%20anti-war%20protesters%20detained%20across%20Russia%20-%20reports%262022-03-06T15%3A30%3A47.322Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:988ecd63-7f46-4492-92c7-fbdff4fab1ee&pinned_post_asset_id=6224cce40ce87e491a0ee5e0&pinned_post_type=share

Hopefully the next Russian Revolution gets going

Air Marshall Philip Osbourn talking here about no fly zones (which he’s been involved with before) and the general strategic/military/political situation.

That was really interesting! And very well put

Hopefully the next Russian Revolution gets going

That would be nice. Although the next guy might be even worse!

Report on R4 this morning that putin may have terminal bowel cancer.
I certainly wish he was dead.
Let’s assume he’s terminally ill – how will that influence his decision making on the basis that…if I’m not around, why should I care?
His death will leave a power void in the kremlin; no obvious successor so further upheaval likely.
Older generations in Russia are more likely to believe state propaganda; younger generations aren’t as they are avid users of social media and have connections outside of the country – they are also feeling the impact of sanctions more directly through withdrawal of western products and services to which they’ve become accustomed/addicted.
Evidenced by interviews with Russians of different ages.
Demographics are against putin.

Twitter is awash today with Russians posting video of demonstrations, people confronting officials, getting arrested  and even brawling with riot police.  Another couple of thousand demonstrators arrested today.  Brave people.  I know there is an argument that Putin is unmoved by home grown public opinion but this seems to be gaining momentum.  Interesting to see the demographic of the protesters too.  Plenty of young people as you would expect, but no shortage of middle aged and older too.  Also, it seems Putin’s attempt to shut down social media and control the narrative isn’t working out too well for him.  This Twitter feed is just one example, scroll down for the videos.

https://twitter.com/brewerov?s=20&t=S3DnE6-Z35pvjhhLM2FbMg

It’s probably total fantasy, but I’m hoping for internal rebellion in Russia prompted by the war and sanctions.

Alexi Navalny is someone I have huge respect for (especially returning to Russia and certain imprisoning after the poisoning episode); he’s trying to organise anti-war protests from within prison.

In my fantasy outcome he gets sprung from jail by the rebellion but I suspect that in reality he’s in line for an unfortunate accident in prison if things start looking bad for Putin.

I would love to believe I would have the guts to protest like this, under that kind of regime, but I really don’t think I would…

Russians singing the Ukrainian anthem as they are detained protesting against Putin’s war

pic.twitter.com/yJRUP0gOON

— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) March 6, 2022

That is ballsy!!

Report on R4 this morning that putin may have terminal bowel cancer.

Based on what information?

Based on what information?

I wasn’t the reporter.

I wasn’t the reporter.

That wasn’t a challenge, just wondering why they thought that. I wondered if the reporter had offered more information.

If you Google it there are a few reports apparently based on the musings of an unidentified intelligence analyst now working at the Pentagon, but it’s pretty tenuous.