Ukraine

I really hope this guy is right and the Russians just can’t sustain their army.

A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 5, 2022

Logistics, as it always does, will play a significant role in determining this war, right now the signs are not good for Russia, but people are mostly ignoring it and talking, as always, about tanks and planes….

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 5, 2022

In an apparent attempt to help fix their broken logistics, the Russians are pushing up all manner of civilian vehicles to the front in Ukraine.??

This is footage of a transport train around Rostov-on-Don.?pic.twitter.com/PLV1ojG9Vf

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) March 5, 2022

The tech side of the restrictions on Russia is stepping up a little bit more…

https://mashable.com/article/cogent-communications-isp-russia-ukraine

Cogent told Reuters that it made the decision to cut off access in order to counter “outbound cyber attacks or disinformation” staged by Russian interests aligned with President Vladimir Putin. However, the company also noted that it was “a tough decision,” since keeping Russians connected to the internet is crucial for them to get non-state sanctioned information.

https://twitter.com/markhachman/status/1499617782299643907

Edit: It’s been deleted as people (like me) were taking it too literally

I 100% believe that the Russians are involved in trying to destabilise their competition through social media. I don’t think people are taking this too literally at all, in fact I think that the problem is that people aren’t taking it seriously enough

We are talking about a regime that does not blink when committing horrific atrocities to further their own ends (see their involvement in various breakaway states such as Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abhkazia and subsequent wthnic cleansing, scorched earth tactics in Chechnya, current events in Ukraine etc etc etc), why would they shy away from poisoning the social media well?

They don’t even have to be subtle about it

Dear subscribers, we have received a great number of letters of solidarity from South Africans, both individuals and organizations. We appreciate your support and glad you decided to stand with us today, when Russia, like 80 years ago, is fighting Nazism in Ukraine! ???? pic.twitter.com/vj0N6ClhSJ

— Russian Embassy in South Africa ?? (@EmbassyofRussia) March 5, 2022

Followed by

Sorry, but we can't stay silent on this one, it's just far too cynical. What ?? is doing in ?? is slaughtering innocent children, women and men for its own gain. It's definitely not "fighting Nazism". Shame on anyone who's falling for this. (Sadly, we're kinda experts on Nazism.)

— Germany in SA (@GermanyinSA) March 5, 2022

What makes you think that us on the continent are better prepared?

Genuine question, btw.

It wasn’t me that wrote the comment to which you’re asking the question but the way I read it suggested that on the continent you have reasonable leaders and a less biased / idiotic media…

And depending on where in Europe you are, a population far more familiar with and closer to the horrors of WW2 and more recent conflicts such as the former Yugoslavia.

Cars on a train deck
Whose to say they havent been stolen from Ukrainian people at gun point and are being sent back to Russia.

Didnt monty allow the German africa corp to extend their supply line to the point it became near useless. Hit them with a big counter attack and take massive swaves of north Africa back under allied control.

Cant the euro zone destroy the ruble by shorting it, or has it been withdrawn from currency trading? If nato members are willing to donate millions of euros worth of hadware. Buying a few rubles for 20p then dumping them for 10p thus devalueing it immediately should have an instant effect. George soros V lamont iirc.

What if another random country were to align itself with the Ukraine, non nato. Whose got enough clout to make a difference, and really does not like Russia. Logistics nightmare though, calibre size for ammo replen, radio frequency, language issues, actually getting there. Blue on blue, local people getting confused etc Cant think of one,but there must be one.

If we’re getting into armchair geopolitics then one solution I thought of would be to allow Moldova and Georgia to join Nato, which would then force Russia to divert resources to bolster their respective ‘breakaway republics’ (in inverted commas as they are proxy states covertly set up by Russia to weaken potentially uncooperative border nations) but as Russia is not supposed to be doing that in the first place and therefore has never admitted to as such then it couldn’t be construed as an act of war.

Whose to say they havent been stolen from Ukrainian people at gun point and are being sent back to Russia.

The person who made the video claimed they were being sent to Ukraine. Some of them were trucks. Russia would not be sending trucks from Ukraine back to Russia, they desperately need trucks in Ukraine. They had the Z marking that some of the Russian forces use for identification. That points to them being sent to support the invasion. No, it’s not confirmed but it is consistent with Russia struggling with logistics and Ukrainian forces specifically targeting supply trucks.

And if Ukrainian claims are anywhere near the truth, they are destroying some of the most important–fuel trucks. As of today, the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy 60 Russian fuel carriers–which would be a significant blow. https://t.co/uenF21rCcL.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 5, 2022

Sabotage or broken down trucks beimg sent back tp the repair shop. A few spare spots, filled with stolen cars.
Just because someone on utube claims one thing, it could be absolutely 100%true. It could alsp not be.

Some elements of Russian SF capable but we wait to see the application in Ukraine. What concerns me about the Russians is how they play dirty at an agent level. Toxins, microwaves etc. Just takes them to start on our water supplies. They would not think twice if pushed.

They win by just blowing sh1t up usually. I met some during a training thing in the middle east. Their solution to every raid or room entry is RPG the room.

I don’t see where the RF are going here. There aren’t anything like enough troops to occupy Ukraine currently in or near enough to take over from the first echelon the FR airforce appears not to be in action in anything like the numbers it needs to be, the logistics to supply the forces is/has failing/failed, soon the shelling will stoop as they’ll run out of ammo food, fuel etc.

and even if all of that doesn’t happen, without millions of RF forces in Ukraine for the next 10 years  or so, any puppet regime put in place will get overthrown in days.

I think this is what happens if the head of state lives in a world entirely of his own devising.

Not sure the British public is ready for what is about to come. Though by contrast I think many on the continent do know. Something that makes the vain posturing of our cosplay cabinet all the more repugnant.

What makes you think that us on the continent are better prepared?

Genuine question, btw.

I read it that the general populations know what total war looks like and their collective memories may better prepare them for it.
As bad as the Blitz or the bombing of Coventry were we haven’t seen anything on that scale on our own shores since probably the mid 17th century. It is within living memory on most of the continent.

The tech side of the restrictions on Russia is stepping up a little bit more…

https://mashable.com/article/cogent-communications-isp-russia-ukraine

This has got to help.

I don’t really understand how the internet works but I’ve been wondering whether ICANN could simply turn off/block the .ru domain.

I’ve been wondering whether ICANN could simply turn off/block the .ru domain.

Ukraine have already asked that question…

Some more info here

https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/03/icann_ukraine_russian_domains/

Ukraine have already asked that question…

Some more info here

https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/03/icann_ukraine_russian_domains/

I hadn’t realised that, thanks. It doesn’t look as if they’re going to get involved though 😕 Any way they can be pressured?

We want to avoid a war with Russia – UK defence chief

Looks like we’re going to have a war with Russia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622481f8980bea49f4b7b55c%26We%20want%20to%20avoid%20a%20war%20with%20Russia%20-%20UK%20defence%20chief%262022-03-06T09%3A49%3A44.581Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:cd06cfef-7e9a-4a6d-86f3-3af7535a1803&pinned_post_asset_id=622481f8980bea49f4b7b55c&pinned_post_type=share

I’m perfect happy not to be a ‘big player’ tbh.

This. I don’t understand why it’s important for the uk to be a big military player. Seems to me the only people it benefits is narcissistic politicians and uk arms companies. We’d be far better off taking a neutral position on geo-political issues whilst maintaining the ability to defend ourselves much like Switzerland does.

What if another random country were to align itself with the Ukraine

Please stop calling it ‘The Ukraine’

That – and Kiev vs Kyiv – is the way the Soviet Union refer(red) to it, in a deprecating way.

Good blog on the logistics problems

It also mentions Ukraine flooding the land north of Kyiv, making the mud even worse.

Putting aside what’s happening in Ukraine directly, what do we reckon the impact elsewhere will be?

Syria: RF now effectively cut off from re-supply except by air, which is very expensive, as Turkey has closed the Black Sea.

Kaliningrad: surrounded on two sides by the EU which has closed its airspace, so again cut off from Russia

Caucasus: will various insurgent groups be looking at what’s happening in Ukraine and wondering if the Russian Army is weak?

We’d be far better off taking a neutral position on geo-political issues whilst maintaining the ability to defend ourselves much like Switzerland does.

Switzerland is a far smaller country, and a surprisingly heavily armed one at that. Anyway, they’ve just decided to implement the same sanctions against Russia as the EU, which is better than we’re doing. Insert joke about five hundred years of democracy and peace producing the cuckoo clock.

Meanwhile Sweden and Finland, which are both historically neutral countries (apart from the bits in the Middle Ages when the Swedes, like the Swiss, were rampaging across Europe) are now seriously talking about applying to join NATO.

Looks like we’re going to have a war with Russia

That’s literally the opposite of what’s written.

For all the positive propaganda coming out of Ukraine I don’t see them making any gains against the Russian rocket launchers which are flattening cities.

Towing broken-down tanks away with a tractor is hardly winning but makes a good Insta post.

For an army that it supposedly badly prepared and supplied the Russians are causing an awful lot of damage and misery.

is the way the Soviet Union refer(red) to it, in a deprecating way.

Actually Ukraine was a founding member of the United Nations in 1945 and the Soviet Union garranteed Ukraine had its own permanent seat at the UN.

Indeed this is precisely what Putin has accused the Bolsheviks/Communists of doing – giving Ukraine an independent entity which, according to him, they are not entitled to.

Putin claims that all those who committed to “decommunisation”, or some other made up word that he uses, should support his invasion of Ukraine.

Edit: Apologies, I’ve just checked and Putin is actually quoting right-wing Ukraine politicians when he claims to be committed to the “decommunisation” of Ukraine.

It was the use of “The Ukraine”, rather than just “Ukraine” that they were pointing out. I keep having to edit and delete my posts to remove “The” often myself, easy mistake to make, but one we should be aware of.

Yeah sadly a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian government and installation of pro Putin puppet government would have meant far less damage and loss of life.

But the Ukrainians don’t want to surrender

Putin has support at home and almost total control of the domestic media

He has far too much pride to back down, sadly that means attrition and destruction of Ukrainian cities

Yeah sadly a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian government and installation of pro Putin puppet government would have meant far less damage and loss of life.

There’s a good post out there purportedly leaked from an FSB officer that asks the question, if Zelenskyy is captured/dead, who exactly do the Russians negotiate the surrender with, and unless they’re planning to occupy the whole Ukraine, any puppet government will be overthrown 10 minutes after RF withdraw.

Remember this is a country that overthrew its government because the government wanted to join a customs union with Russia rather than the EU.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-embassy-begs-public-to-stop-saying-the-ukraine-after-trump-flub/

I’m not talking about when Ukraine was constructed or about whether Ukraine owes Russia because of past history, it’s purely about use of language.

I’ve spoken previously to my Ukrainian colleague at work about it and according to him it is a really big thing; maybe only three letters but of deep significance to Ukrainians, and one I feel should be respected. That’s all.

That’s literally the opposite of what’s written.

Sorry, fair point- it was a sly dig at politicians, ie when a politician pre-emptively says something definitely isn’t going to happen, then you can be pretty sure that it is

I should have added a 🤷‍♂️

Putin has support at home and almost total control of the domestic media

He has far too much pride to back down, sadly that means attrition and destruction of Ukrainian cities

This is how I see it too

unless they’re planning to occupy the whole Ukraine, any puppet government will be overthrown 10 minutes after RF withdraw.

They did this succesfully in Chechnya by installing a brutally oppressive dictator

There are some parallels between Ukraine and Chechnya, this video fills in some of the details on the latter

There’s a good post out there purportedly leaked from an FSB officer

Here it is, the jury is out on whether this is genuine or UF psyops.  IMO which is obv worth no more or less than anyone else’s – it feels genuine.  Might be wishful thinking.  If true though, it offers a fascinating and worrying glimpse into the dysfunctional higher echelons of the Kremlin and Ru military.

Apologies if this has already been posted – this thread moves so fast it’s hard to keep up.

?My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain – covers many subjects.

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 6, 2022

Came here to post that!

For an army that it supposedly badly prepared and supplied the Russians are causing an awful lot of damage and misery.

I imagine the artillery etc doing the shelling are in locations the Ukrainians have been unable to hit (regularly and reliably?). And the Russians seems happy to flatten whatever they want and be indiscriminate about it.

That Igor Shushko chap wrote this on his 2000 word FSB tweet:

“Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.”

Is that possible?

The question about why the UK Government feels it has a role to play, it’s simply down to them having a permanent seat on the UK Security Council, the justification for retaining nuclear weapons otherwise the whole Brexit ‘but soverunty’ argument is kinda useless. The fact that the UK Armed Forces are the smallest they’ve been for 200 years and their ability to sustain any sort of large-scale, expeditionary warfare capability is somewhat moot. Certainly, regardless of the outcome, this is certainly going to change European Geopolitics and the UK’s role. Regardless, the argument for international co-operation grows stronger whist those arguing for the dissolution of NATO and ridiculing the notion of an EU military capability are the ones looking a bit silly. Besides, the UK is pretty broke and simply can’t afford it.

Even if you are 100% sceptical of the Ukranian SM output that train of civilian vehicles is pretty damning.

For those talking about the convoys repairing and resupplying – without money, where will they get tyres from? Where will they get parts when the factories can’t get raw materials? Etc etc.

what do we reckon the impact elsewhere will be?

Russian prestige will take a huge hit. Autocrats around the world saw Putin as a strongman, able to stand up to the weak democracies. Seeing the Russian economy flattened like that will hopefully make them think.

Big thing will be what lessons China takes from it. If Russia had been successful. there would have been internal pressure to invade Taiwan. Now, having seen what insurgents armed with anti-tank missiles and MANPADS can do, they will probably be rethinking the military feasibility of sending thousands of troops on a sea crossing to try and storm ashore then fight it out in the mountains against a dug-in enemy. Also, the democracies’ willingness to go nuclear on the economic sanctions must have surprised the Chinese leaders. Hopefully, China will decide that a military invasion would be too risky to contemplate.