Donald! Trump!

the last 2 presidential elections they have underestimated the Trump vote and got clobbered for it.

They were both within the tolerance of the polls. The trouble is that media outlets don’t mention that there’s a massive (something like +/- 5% iirc) uncertainty

 the last 2 presidential elections they have underestimated the Trump vote and got clobbered for it.

The problem is mainly that people don’t understand how polling and confidence intervals work. Leaving aside the problem of estimating the turnout rates of different groups, the measurement error is much larger than people appreciate. With a sample size of 1,000, the 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3%. So, a poll that shows the two candidates in a dead heat at 50% each, just means that they are probably going to end up within about 6% in the election. In 2016, the polls correctly predicted that Clinton would carry the popular vote, but they were off in the swing states.

That sample size of 1,000 respondents is large and expensive to collect. If you have a 90% non-response rate, it means that you need to contact 10,000 people to gather 1,000 responses.  On top of that, you need to try to figure out how the different sub-groups in the population will vote and how they will turn out. If you gather a sample of 1,000 respondents and 10% of them are black, you only have 100 black respondents, so the confidence interval for the black vote will be much larger than for the overall sample (I think it would be +/- 10% for a sample of 100, but I’m happy to be corrected). When you start trying to drill down deeply into the different sub-groups, the error just becomes ridiculously large, you might only have 15 respondents out of your 1,000 who represent some specific sub-group, and you can’t draw any conclusions from 15 responses. And that’s for a fairly large poll of 1,000 respondents. Many of the polls will have much smaller samples so the error is much larger.

So, saying that the polls were wrong makes it sound much simpler than it really is. In 2016, from what I remember, the polls were saying that Clinton had about a 70% chance of victory and Trump about 30%. It’s completely unsurprising that a candidate with a 30% chance of victory would win, so the polls were correct in saying that Trump had a serious chance of victory.

The only conclusion we can draw from this is that we aren’t really sure what’s going on and we have no confidence in predicting a winner.

Lots of stories on Twitter about MAGA women flipping to Harris. I also remember Twitter during the 2019 UK election when it was widely rumored half the Tory ministers had lost their seats, hours before they tore down the red wall with an unprecedented landslide…

Far too many variables now makes it almost impossible to poll. I don’t think anyone can predict it, but it feels like there’s a glimmer of hope.

Harris appearing on Saturday night live..

How dare she appear on a popular entertainment show to boost her popularity, I’m calling cheat with the IQ of a rock!

razorrazoo
Full Member
Harris appearing on Saturday night live

I found it mildly amusing in a middle of the road, dont scare the horses before the election type way. Lol

https://edition.cnn.com/?refresh=1

Hmm the usually accurate selzer poll has Harris leading by 3 in Iowa, which if true would mean most polls are overestimating Trump (with the n lead coming from women and indies)

Meanwhile the twitter Trumpers see themselves as the plucky resistance fighting the elites (when they’re really just doing the bidding of Musk, Thiel & Murdoch [and putin?])
For them it’s just about owning the libs and being on the winning side
But millions of American women shave lost abortion rights and putting a (adjudicated) rapist in the Whitehouse is a real red line, if there’s a big upset and Trump loses by a lot, that will be where it comes from, but it will blindside his fans and they’ll cry fraud! because the brocast demographic have no clue what the real life consequences of another Trump presidency means to women (and minorities)

Lots of stories on Twitter about MAGA women flipping to Harris.

Channel 4 news had a pretty in-depth feature last week with a group of women in one of the ‘battleground’ swing states that will decide this election. All were diehard Republicans who had voted that way all their lives. Very middle class and educated, all of them said, without exception, that there was no way they bring themselves to vote for Trump. They were all pro-choice and sited his sexism, racism and misogyny as steps too far

But there they then split about 50/50 with those who had been convinced by Harris and would vote Democrat. and those who would just stay home and not vote at all. I got the impression that if there were a Lib Dem style third party in the States, they would presently be hoovering up an awful lot of votes. The same as the Lib Dems did at the last election here with educated, affluent and socially liberal previous Tory voters repelled by the Reform-lite direction the party has taken.

Trump may be picking up the gun-toting redneck vote, but he’s repelling traditional Republicans too. God only knows how it’ll go on Tuesday. You’d have to be mad to put money on the outcome

Chat with a very left leaning American colleague yesterday, she’s all in for Harris, but says some of her friends not voting for her over Gaza, which is wild considering Trump’s history on Israel.

But millions of American women shave

Let’s not go there. That whole Christine O’Donnell thing needs to be left in the past.

Real panic amongst trumpers over that poll, they genuinely don’t get it

So I made a meme for them

Imagine thinking that putting a rapist who was besties with epstein in the Whitehouse, was a good idea pic.twitter.com/xTmY3LIglK

— Chris Kimberley (@ChrisKimberley) November 3, 2024

she’s all in for Harris, but says some of her friends not voting for her over Gaza, which is wild considering Trump

This boils my head, Trump, the president who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, thereby rubber stamping Israel’s claim to the city at their capital and oversaw the Pompeo doctrine which basically said that the US saw the Jewish settlements in the West Bank as legal, a huge policy change.

Kamala may not give them everything they want but that’s because the American people overall tend to lean pretty pro-Israeli and if she needs to factor that in.

But as far as Trump is concerned Israel could bulldoze Gaza into the sea and he wouldn’t bat an eye.

This is one of those cases where I wonder how much Russian and Chinese activity has moved things, a bit like all those disinfo ops in 2016 telling black people not to vote because ‘it reinforces a racist system’ basically using progressive pressure points to further the conservative Trump agenda.

But as far as Trump is concerned Israel could bulldoze Gaza into the sea and he wouldn’t bat an eye.

I doubt anyones under any illusions that if Trump wins, thats exactly what will happen.

An interesting piece, again on Channel 4 news the other night, saying that in a couple of these critical states there is a huge Polish American population who are all massively anti-Trump because they know he fawns over Putin, doesn’t give a tosss about NATO and he’ll abandon Ukraine leaving Poland next in Russia’s sights

Plenty of Americans with their roots in the Baltic states as well, my FiL is of Latvian extraction.

Will this help counteract, Trump’s (mildly baffling) improved numbers with black and Latino men? Guess we’ll find out on Wednesday.

Although the result of the usually very reliable Selzer poll in Iowa showing the state in contention rather than being safely in Trump’s column seems to be causing some serious head scratching.

My head says Harris, my anxiety-ridden gut says Trump. Not long before we find out now.

Yeah, there’s so much internet ‘noise’… and it’s only going to get louder in the next few days….

If you just try to objectivley look at the polls, it seems like a coin toss… I’d hazard Harris has the edge, but again there is so much internet noise it’s almost impossible to call.

The general commentariat view is the polls are unreliable, but the problem is no-one knows which way.

Alex Andreiou suggesting that while a Trump presidency will be bad, it may also force us closer to Europe, as defence co-operation is something we can offer that the EU wants.

The general commentariat view is the polls are unreliable, but the problem is no-one knows which way.

They are reliable within their confidence intervals (that’s the mathematical definition of reliability.) By definition, the confidence intervals are plus or minus, so it’s impossible to know which way they will be off.

I’d hazard Harris has the edge, but again there is so much internet noise it’s almost impossible to call.

This my position too.

To be honest ive stopped mulling it over. The classic forum advice of not stressing about things you have no control over is being applied.

There’s a kind of ‘between Christmas and new year’ vibe at the moment and it feels like we are just waiting for the result now, and then we can move on

Don’t get me wrong, nothing will make me happier than seeing trump and the republican mire being defeated democratically.

My head says Harris, my anxiety-ridden gut says Trump. Not long before we find out now.

The anxiety is feeling worse – eased only by all the Trump supporters holding placards saying “Trump Will Fix It” at his rallies.

eased only by all the Trump supporters holding placards saying “Trump Will Fix It” at his rallies.

Now then, now then!

she’s all in for Harris, but says some of her friends not voting for her over Gaza, which is wild considering Trump

I think that part of the problem is that the Green Party presidential candidate is exceptionally good when it comes to Palestine.

If Palestine and the ongoing US-backed slaughter is a problem for you then it is going to be difficult not to vote for Jill Stein, as this clip shows :

https://x.com/PalBint/status/1852868017979359466/

And yeah Trump would be bad for Palestinians, but I can’t see what he might do which the Biden/Harris administration isn’t currently doing anyway. Unless someone can suggest something?

I’m rooting for Harris, but I also do think the Dems need to wake up & smell the coffee. Trump isn’t the answer, but the problems are real. On the Dem watch, globalisation and outsourcing has trashed industrial America, and they need some solutions or populists will win out.

globalisation and outsourcing has trashed industrial America, and they need some solutions or populists will win out

I think that part of the problem is that the Green Party presidential candidate is exceptionally good when it comes to Palestine.

Shame she’s a **** idiot and useful shill for Russian propaganda

I don’t think that Jill Stein is, I believe that she has described Putin as a war criminal. But then I also believe that some people claim that the “EuroMaidan Revolution” wasn’t a coup, so I can understand that might not be enough for them.

I don’t think that Jill Stein is, I believe that she has described Putin as a war criminal.

So you watched her interview with Mehdi Hasan where she deflected on the issue and upon receiving pushback afterwards had to issue a statement, And in 2015 she attended a Russia Today 10yr celebratory dinner at their invitation after appearing on the show numerous times, She sat on the same table as Putin, sat between Dimitry Peskov – Putin’s spokesperson and Willy Wimmer – Putins fav tame German politician, Sergey Ivanov – Putin’s chief of staff, Alexey Gromov – Dep chief of staff, and Putin’s fave film director and his wife.

Perhaps she’s not a Russian shill, but I then have to question her ability to figure out that she’s being used as a pawn in their games

extract from Kyiv independent newspaper

The comments came days after Stein gave a widely criticized interview with U.K. broadcaster Mehdi Hasan, in which she declined to answer a direct question about whether Putin is a war criminal.

“So, what we said about Putin was that his invasion of Ukraine is criminal. It’s a criminal and murderous war,” Stein said in response.

When Hasan pressed her, asking, “And he’s a war criminal who should be on trial?” Stein said, “well, by implication, by implication.”

Later on in the interview, Hasan again asked Stein the same question point blank — “Either you’re a war criminal or you’re not. Is Vladimir Putin a war criminal?”

Stein again waffled, saying, “In so many words, yes he is.”

Some places reporting his confusion tonight, he was at a rally in North Carolina but started talking about a senate candidate who’s running in Pennsylvania.

But that’s not really that bad bit-the bad bit is that he was completely convinced that he’d met this candidate, David McCormick, right before the event. He’s 500km away Donald, you are hallucinating.

-the bad bit is that he was completely convinced that he’d met this candidate, David McCormick, right before the event. He’s 500km away Donald, you are hallucinating.

Teams call maybe?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/02/elon-musk-donald-trump-us-presidential-elections

That could just as easily go into the Elon Musk thread but it’s a pretty terrifying look at what happens if Trump wins and Musk worms his way into government.

I predict Musk runs as president at the next election.

I predict Musk runs as president at the next election.

He is not a natural born citizen.

matt_outandabout

Full Member

I predict Musk runs as president at the next election

Impossible, seeing as he’s south African by birth

If Trump loses Musk will spiral further down the conspiracy hole

Musk wants to be the new Murdoch on steroids, the power behind multiple thrones, he wants to dictate policy by his control of twitter, and it is looking like everyone is bowing the knee already.

If governments don’t bring laws in to restrict social medias manipulation of reality, our lives are going to get worse rather rapidly IMO.

He is not a natural born citizen.

Ah well, ignore me!

Several polsters putting out last minute polls swinging back toward Harris, theres a belief that some have been overweighting in trumps favour

That said early vote data in Nevada is looking good for Trump by party registration, nearly 80% of votes are in there! and Trump is up by 4% a high turnout from rural voters seems to be helping him- Harris needs a big swing from Indies and/or crossover from republican (women)

Seeming a bit more positive atm, but who knows

He is not a natural born citizen.

4 years for the Orange one, with zero irony after the birther stuff of the past, to tweak the rules.

Hiya,

If Trump loses, can you imagine the aftermath? It’s going to be horrendous and I can’t imagine it will calm down.

It is knife edge by the looks of it, and truly horrendous, with no end in sight with the opinions so strong on it…

BR

JeZ

No empty seats at a Trump rally… 

Listening to R4 as I drove to work this morning, Trump’s language at the rallies in the last 36hrs has got pretty dark. He said at one rally that he now regrets leaving the White House and he should have refused to leave. Setting up for inevitable violence if it looks like he’s lost later this week.