This is an excellent article if the paywall isn't an issue :
https://www.ft.com/content/8f6d3c9c-9d1f-4f17-98e6-3e75d077df6b
According to that analysis Trump has taken an enormous gamble which completely depends on how the Iranian regime reacts.
And imo how they react is likely to be dependant on how big the regime sees the existential threat. They might decide that as a regime they have nothing to lose and go down fighting. If they target American bases/assets in the region (and the US has prepared for that) they will likely cause American deaths.
Trump responding with full all-out war would massively damage his presidency as would the price of oil skyrocketing.
In contrast no response from the Iranian regime would be chalked up as a big win for Trump although I doubt that it would be seen as a particularly impressive legacy of his presidency. It certainly won't mean that the Middle East has entered a new era of peace, that won't happen and Israel will make certain that it won't happen.
I find myself wondering more and more whether Trump is primarily driven by a need to satisfy a serious gambling addiction.
Trump responding with full all-out war would massively damage his presidency
This is the gamble that the Iranian regime could take, that neither Trump nor the United States has the stomach for a new Middle East war so retaliation would be worth as it would minimise the risks of future US attacks.
Trump did not seek the approval of Congress for the US to engage in military action, that could cause him problems although presumably less so if no further action is taken.
Well the obvious has happened. I hope we are not involved
The BBC understands there was no UK involvement in the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities
if things escalate further it would become increasingly harder not to be involved though
The US made it very clear they wouldn't support the UK/EU militarily only a few months ago, so why would the powers at be even consider any support whatsoever for the US?
I fail to see how Trump could come to the conclusive battle damage assessment of "totally obliterated" on publicly announcing the strike. That assessment will take days, if not weeks.
Trump's conclusions have absolutely no relevance to the official assessments. They used the biggest and bestest bombs in the world ever, didn't you know? Job done.
If this later turns out to be different, just change the facts, simple. It's still FACT. Everything else is fake news (or someone else's fault).
Id be surprised if the mission was the success Trump declared. The response could be nasty if not.
If this later turns out to be different, just change the facts, simple. It's still FACT. Everything else is fake news (or someone else's fault)
100% this, the cult will believe whatever he tells them
i must admit to being surprised that trump's done netenyahu's bidding so completely
I don’t know which is more nauseating, Netenyahu blowing smoke up Trumps arse or Pete Hegseth banging on about ‘Great American Warriors’ and this somehow being for the ‘glory of god’?
Holy hand grenade of Antioch anyone?
Hegseth makes more sense when he’s drunk.
Warriors is is not a term befitting the air crew pressing a button whilst sat in relative safety at 40,000 feet
Trump did not seek the approval of Congress for the US to engage in military action, that could cause him problems although presumably less so if no further action is taken.
He's been impeached twice and that didn't seem to cause him any problems, I can't imagine a few people in Congress being a bit unhappy is going to have the slightest effect on him.
He really is thick as shit, just a puppet being played by Netanyahu.
I can't imagine a few people in Congress being a bit unhappy is going to have the slightest effect on him.
No, not a few people a bit unhappy. All of the Democrats and some Republicans strongly opposed might though.
I guess it depends on how Iran responds and how the situation then pans out. A full direct war with Iran similar to the Iraq War plus oil prices going through the roof might make Congress less keen to back another foreign war.
On the other hand if yesterday was the limit of United States involvement in the Israeli orchestrated war then no doubt it won't cause Trump any problems with Congress.
Personally I don't think that the Iranian regime can afford to ignore what the United States has done, it will simply invite further attacks if they do so. Nor can the United States afford to be drawn into another pointless and costly war.
If the United States after years of a costly war had to give up the ghost in Afghanistan, one of the poorest and weakest nation on earth, then I can't imagine that they might fare any better in Iran.
Despite Trump and Hegseth claiming the underground nuclear facility has been obliterated/destroyed, I am a tad sceptical to believe any of them being even half truth. These are the same people who have blatantly lied when a mountain of evidence says differently ..
So, yes the USA dropped big bombs that made a huge display. But .. the Iranians designed and built the underground facility to withstand that type of attack. And, would they really put the facility directly under the well advertised entrances at the top?
My thoughts are, the USA probably destroyed the entrances the Iranians wanted them to know about, but there are other entrances intact, and the actual facility is intact too. That said - the Iranians have already said they had moved all the important stuff to elsewhere before the USA bombed it - my thoughts are they moved it to their real secret underground facility.
If they “didn’t” have a nuclear weapon program before then they sure as hell will be attempting to bodge one together now, would the U.S. bomb such a compound if they had knowledge that the Iranian regime possessed a working weapon?………..I doubt it.
A good editorial in the Guardian :
Mr Netanyahu lured him into this attack and may lead him into more, paying gushing tribute to a history-making president and thanking him on behalf of “the forces of civilisation”.
In rejecting diplomacy and choosing war, not only in breach of international law but at the behest of a country pursuing annihilation in Gaza, the US has delivered a resounding blow to the architecture of global affairs.
You have to hand it to Benjamin Netanyahu he really is brilliant operator. All accusations of genocide go out the window as Western governments rally behind him and support his totally illegal and unprovoked attack on a neighbour.
While he quite openly starves civilians, including women and children, he feels able to step up and claim to speak on behalf of “the forces of civilisation”.
If that script had been written a few years ago it would have been dismissed as fanciful nonsense.
Meanwhile the UK government decides to classify as "terrorists" hotheads who stage a publicity stunt to highlight UK complicity with a genocidal warmongering regime.
If they “didn’t” have a nuclear weapon program before then they sure as hell will be attempting to bodge one together now,
At Netanyahu's bidding, Trump cancelled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the "Iran Nuclear Deal") set up by Obama in 2015 which monitored Iran's nuclear programme and which they were actually complying with (in exchange for reduced sanctions).
So since then, no-one has had any idea what they're doing.
First Netanyahu said "oh it's all lies, the programme isn't working", then because it was set up by Obama and Trump wanted to burn everything connected with him, he cancelled the deal and now BN has said "oh look, Iran has / will have very soon a nuclear weapon, can you come and bomb it for us?"
Nor can the United States afford to be drawn into another pointless and costly war.
The US economy runs on war. Even when they lose, which they usually manage to do.
Can't believe it, but I actually agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene on something 🤣 I suppose even a broken **** is still right twice a day...
In a post on X, Greene said:
“Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war. There would not be bombs falling on the people of Israel if Netanyahu had not dropped bombs on the people of Iran first. Israel is a nuclear armed nation. This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.”
Can't believe it, but I actually agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene on something 🤣 I suppose even a broken **** is still right twice a day...
She's absolutely right. Even typing that makes me feel dirty, and not in a good way.
Ahh late to the war 🙂
Anyway can’t beat a bit of Frankie
Looking at the picture up there of trump giving his obliterated speak, it looks me like Vance is looking at trump thinking ,this guy's a ****ing idiot.
This is a really excellent, although short, analysis, imo. Well worth a read.
https://archive.is/2025.06.22-155007/https://www.ft.com/content/c6894992-5366-4f30-a3ff-d3e837a7c8e6
I don't understand how that ^^ link works fine until I post it on here. Anyway here's the two most interesting paragraphs. It suggests that Trump is in fact currently in a very weak position.....
Whatever happens next, it is worth recalling how Trump got here. Ten days ago, Benjamin Netanyahu torpedoed Trump’s nuclear negotiations with Iran with a series of devastating missile strikes. Israel’s prime minister said that Iran was weaponising its nuclear programme and posed an existential threat. Most others, including the US intelligence community, do not share Netanyahu’s diagnosis. Having his desired deal scuppered by Israel’s move, Trump quickly associated himself with it. He demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and said that he could take out the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, at any point. Iran did not submit to Trump’s demand. His de facto declaration of war on Saturday night was the outcome.
It also bears stressing that nobody, including Trump, knows what will happen next. It is easy to start a war, especially if you command the most powerful military on Earth. But wars only end when one side gives up. That age-old warning about the fog of war is particularly relevant to today’s Middle East, in which there are often more than two warring parties. The enemy of your enemy can turn out also to be your enemy. Having once been lectured by a younger Netanyahu, Bill Clinton said to an aide, “Who’s the ****ing superpower here?” Trump’s brief televised address following the strikes was meant to showcase his command of the situation. In reality, Netanyahu has been dictating events. But even he cannot predict how Iran will respond.
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes and stands back to open the popcorn...
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes and stands back to open the popcorn...
you could call it some kind of "missile crisis" maybe?
This has really put Putin in a pickle I reckon. The Iranians will be wanting some kind of reciprocal support after their supplying all those Shithead drones to fire at the Ukrainians, but then that'll divert resources from Ukraine and will mightily piss off Trump if they are at all implicated in attacking US assets, maybe to the extent that'd open the weapons floodgates to Kiev.
What a time to be a genocidal war criminal!
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes
Think it's more likely the Iranians would get a bomb from North Korea rather than the Russians. Even then though would they use it? MAD still applies, if they were to drop a nuke on Tel Aviv then they'd also be signing the death warrant for the tens of millions living in every Iranian city. The Israelis however need to show some restraint to avoid the Iranian govt deciding they have nothing left to lose. Netanyahu looks like he's going the other way though.
PS. Where is the Iranian air force? Has it been destroyed or have they scapered to somewhere the Israelis can't reach them?
Iran air force is obsolete (includes old f14s!), and Israel knocked out much of their air defence capability. So they'd be flying largely unsupported against vastly superior planes and weapons, and larger numbers of aircraft too. Israel gained air superiority quite quickly, and as an enabler for further actions/strikes.
I think it would be very difficult for a Iranian ally to deliver nuclear weapons. I don't think the US strikes killed off Iranian capability, nor the stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The Israelis however need to show some restraint to avoid the Iranian govt deciding they have nothing left to lose.
Bibi and Trump are off the reservation with this if I'm honest. I'm struggling to see the tactical and strategic benefit of this, even if Iran come back to the table as Starmer hopes, this is the sort of thing that will 'keep' and come back to bite everyone later.
Anyone catch the chap arrested for espionage in Cyprus? On behalf of guess who...
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
No point targeting US bases whilst they are on high alert. And probably best not to warn them first too.
Trump has just thanked Iran . Apparently it's all over and we can thank him for world peace.
Yup, the "12 Day War" could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, thanks to Trump.
I hope he has written his acceptance speech for his big beautiful Nobel Peace Prize
Did they tell Iran this ?
The weirdest part of WW3 is the Twittering/x/truth social side messaging of it.
