[Closed] Will UKIP really split the tory vote and let Labour in?

Unlikely IMO. They're just a sign of the times - their rise is a protest at lower living standards, not a belief that they could actually provide any leadership and run the country properly. Farage preys on people's fears for their futures, there's nothing constructive in the way he operates.

Ironically, far-right parties are showing increased popularity across Europe - he has more in common with the people he says he's against than he has with the UK electoral as a whole.

They're not cohesive - it's just Farage and a load of randoms. He's just enjoying being a troublemaker and giving the incumbents a bloody nose. He has no MPs don't forget. Even if he won 10 seats at the general election he'd still have no power in Parliament. And polls do not necessarily reflect voting patterns anyway.

Not at the upcoming European elections, which are broadly proportional representation. Voting UKIP in these gets you UKIP, not Labour.

At the UK general election, which is first past the post, splitting the right wing vote will help the Tories main challengers in individual seats - unless the UKIP vote is so high they get elected themselves.

Does seem like it will happen to some extent in general elections- suppose for ages there's been a 2-way split of the leftier vote with the lib dems so I suppose labour should also gain from that since you now have to be wrong in the head to vote liberal

(it's quite funny- in Scotland, polling showed a 2.8% fall in the tory vote and a 2% rise in the UKIP vote. Apparently this was a success, and a huge lurch to the right, somehow. Farage described this as showing "dissatisfaction with the main parties" even while those 2 main parties increased their lead.)

I appreciate that the GE will be different, but the latest polls show the Tories holding in third with UKIP starting to pinch votes from Labour.

By the time the next general election, Tory party policy on immigration and the EU will be exactly in line with UKIP's anyway. And the BNP's for that matter. Thus making Farage an irrelevance. His mission accomplished.

So all the greedy, selfish, nasty, grasping, racists can happily go back to voting for who they've always voted for.

Its the poor BNP whove been made to suffer the most, theyve pretty much evaporated as their supporters can now openly vote ukip

So all the greedy, selfish, nasty, grasping, racists can happily go back to voting for who they've always voted for.

The only two people I know who are voting for UKIP (surprisingly IMO in both cases) both said the vote would only be for EU and not General election (phew). I think people are happier to make protest votes in that way but then behave differently in the general elections. We shall see....

From what I have seen where UKIP target a Tory seat which is also a Labour target it helps Labour. Where UKIP targets a traditional Labour seat then it takes a big chunk of points off Labour but probably not enough to change the result unless the LibDems were riding higher.

what THM said
They will win in the EU i will be surprised if they win any seats in the UK election

I like this
it is like the entire electorate are taking the piss and only giving them seats in the place they dont want to be

I am not sure how much they will hurt the Tories but I doubt it will help

Unlike Binners i dont think they can lurch that far as all the parties have to flirt with the floating/swing voters as they are the ones who decide elections
not the rabid diehards who will also vote for their party [ or against the others]- I include myself in that statement

teamhurtmore - Member

The only two people I know who are voting for UKIP (surprisingly IMO in both cases)

Lots of people will simply be pretending that they're not going to vote UKIP for the same reason that lots of NO voters will pretend they're voting YES.

fr0sty125 - When have UKIP made a dent on labour? Have you got any examples?

The only results I've seen were from the recent Wythenshawe by-election. UKIP targeted 'disaffected Labour voters'. The result? Labour increased its already substantial majority, and the pitifully small Tory vote went down by the same amount as UKIPs went up.

I would have thought it'd be the same in most labour strongholds (they could put a deckchair up for election in Wythenshawe, and it'd get elected). Are there results from more marginal seats?

binners - Member
fr0sty125 - When have UKIP made a dent on labour? Have you got any examples?

The only results I've seen were from the recent Wythenshawe by-election. UKIP targeted 'disaffected Labour voters'. The result? Labour increased its already substantial majority, and the pitifully small Tory vote went down by the same amount as UKIPs went up.

I would have thought it'd be the same in most labour strongholds (they could put a deckchair up for election in Wythenshawe, and it'd get elected). Are there results from more marginal seats?

Internals for the locals on 22nd

I'm descended from a Danish mercenary who came over and settled here in the 5th century CE. Perhaps I should "go home" where there are more [s]black[/s] Danish people...

I like that Stewart Lee thing.

Er, in that other thread....

There will undoubtedly be a swing back to conservative at the general election vote,

given the current general election polling is roughly equal between Tory and Labour, with a 10-15% reserve of potential swing from the UKIP vote, that doesn't bode well for Labour.

UKIP more likely to hurt Tories esp on Europe

Labour have their own issues (1) with Ed (less popular than Cleggie) and (2) the economic narrative looking wobbly

Lib Dems - watch Oakeshott/Cable v Alexander v Clegg develop. How will they try to cling to power?

UKIP attracts working class Tory voters. A UKIP voter if they don't vote UKIP is more likely to vote Tory than Labour - the "flog 'em and hang 'em" brigade tends to be even more right-wing than the Labour Party.

The Tory Party has always been concerned with regards to the rise of UKIP, and so they should be.

Latest COMRES Euro poll:-

UKIP 34% (-4)
Labour 24% (-3)
Conservatives 22% (+4)
LD 8% (nc)
Greens 5%

YouGov Euro

Labour 28
UKIP 25
Conservative 22
Other 15
Lib Dem 10

YouGov Genereal election poll

Labour: 35% (up 1 point from YouGov yesterday)
Conservatives: 32% (down 2)
Ukip: 13% (down 2)
Lib Dems: 10% (up 2)

IPSOS MORI
LAB 34%(-3)
CON 31%(nc),)
UKIP 11%(-4)
LDEM 9%(nc),
GREEN 8%(+5)

as ninfan says, likely to be a big swing away from ukip to tory at the GE
of course if scotland were to actually vote yes and Cameron became PM who broke up the union....

but Ed is unpopular and no strong narrative while stats say economy is on the up, its his to loose really, he has breathing space as cameron has to become more anti euro to appease the kipers, so he will need to be bold eg push to renationalise the railways etc would be popular if done properly

Dave is a canny bugger. He saw the potential for UKIP to split the vote, and unleashed his secret weapon to absolutely guarantee victory!

[img] [/img]

I can't even look this stupid, vacant, cluless face, it makes me so ****ing angry that this is what the labour party has now become

Yep. They sure picked the wrong bruv there, er, bruv.

nah david was up to his nuts in nulabour, extraordinary rendition etc, david milliband paired with ed balls is far too close to the blair years,

also doubt david wouldve had the need or desire to try and modernise the party by reducing the influence of the unions the way ed has tried

some more for you binners, not quite as Chris Froome and stems..
[img] [/img]
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/pictures-of-ed-milibands-stare-ready-to-take-on-the-world

Just popped some stuff in the recycling bin to find those hiding [img]http:// [URL= http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v734/vwempi/Mobile%20Uploads/2014-05/20140515_114417.jp g" target="_blank">http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v734/vwempi/Mobile%20Uploads/2014-05/20140515_114417.jp g"/> [/IMG][/URL][/img]

I wouldn't have picked the other half of the chuckle bothers either. Andy Burnham is the only member of the present labour party who looks like he's got more pressing concerns than sourcing fairtrdade humous in Islington

I can't even look this stupid, vacant, cluless face, it makes me so ****ing angry that this is what the labour party has now become

Perhaps you should focus on real politics instead of focusing on physical attributes ?

If people substituted meaningless criticism with real politics we might get somewhere.

In light of seeming biased my bin has pointed out labour and ukip has not put yet to be broken promises through my letter box

If people substituted meaningless criticism with real politics we might get somewhere.

Just thinking about the suitably-named "Balls" and his "flatlining" act at PMQ's there. Presumably he doesn't do that anymore?

Anyone know if he's rolled out another genius comedy gesture?

Perhaps you should focus on real politics instead of focusing on physical attributes ?

Stoke on Trent is an area with a Labour MP, Labour Run council and has done pretty much for ever. They also have strong support of UKIP - it's very much the Frank Field wing of Labour supporters which will switch to UKIP.

I think it's incorrect to view UKIP as a party which has a specific position on things and can be placed at a particular point on the political spectrum at any one time. They are a populist party, ready to tear up everything from the past and just fly in a new set of policies if it will get them more votes - the 2010 General Election manifesto was disappeared in such a way, and the local election manifesto in a similar way before that. Their positions are often contradictory and generally rely on rhetorical approaches rather than providing actual solutions to issues - you never hear of UKIP local councillors running around like blue arced flies doing boring local council casework - which almost every other party does - because that's not how they get elected.

The European elections are the perfect time for them - people don't really understand how our interaction with Europe works, and it's easier to keep on stating lies over and over than explain the intricacies of the reality - e.g. 29milion Romanian's and Bulgarians are coming to a town near year - the reality - 1,300 less romanians and bulgarians in the country…but the headline figure is already out there, the damage is done.

Perhaps you should focus on real politics instead of focusing on physical attributes ?

I'd criticise his policies instead. If he had any!

I could't give a toss about the fact he looks like a badly-stitched sock puppet, if he actually did anything. We're ruled over by the most heartless, nasty, self-serving bunch of *s we've ever had in power, who are in the process of out-Thatchering Thatcher - systematically dismantling the welfare state and the NHS, and privatising everything in sight, to enrich their corporate frinds.

They present any opposition worthy of a name with an open goal on a daily basis. And whats this muppet doing? Sitting there sucking his *ing thumb!! Absolutely utterly and completely useless!!! It bloody annoys me that this half-wit is what the labour party thinks is needed in the present climate

Can you see him as prime minister?

No. Neither can anyone else. I wouldn't trust him to run a bath, never mind a country. Dave must have thought all his birthdays and christmases had arrived at once when that muppet turned up as leader of the opposition*

* The words 'leader' and 'opposition' are used figuratively in this instance, and actually denote neither

Just thinking about the suitably-named "Balls" and his "flatlining" act at PMQ's there. Presumably he doesn't do that anymore?

That was a pretty accurate description at the time. It's was the rest of the stuff that went with it that was a bit off-piste!

....isn't half the problem that they don't have any policies?

And why do you think that is ? .....because people simply aren't interested in "policies".

Tony Blair won a historical landslide victory, and then went on to have 2 more victories, without any meaningful policies. Just making waffling speeches with a few keywords peppered throughout them was enough to send people rushing to the polling stations to vote for him.

Stop blaming politicians for a politically immature electorate.

The main event being the general election, the heart will say ukip, the head conservative, the main aim being to keep labour out with their high tax, high spend & decimating the economy (again)
As long as the ukip threat forces the current wishy-washy tories to adopt some proper right wing policies instead of the current nonsense, then ukip's job will done & they will no longer be relevant.

Stop blaming politicians for a politically immature electorate.

So who do you blame then Ernie?

And why do you think that is ? .....because people simply aren't interested in "policies".

Sorry Ernie, but thats complete cobblers. I'm absolutely infuriated by the lack of policies. And politicians making vague, wooly noncommittal noises as a supposed substitute for them.

If people weren't bothered, then people wouldn't read broadsheet newspapers, watch Newsnight or Question Time, listen to the Today programme in the morning. Or generally get apoplectic with rage, and rant on internet forums

My problem with the sock puppet is that he's stopped even making the vague, wooly noncommittal noises that Dave uttered before the last election, in favour of a policy that seems to be 'if I don't say anything, then I can't say anything wrong

Its spineless, cowardly, cynical and pathetic. Which seems to be about the measure of the man.

keep labour out with their high tax, high spend & decimating the economy

[img] [/img]

Look at what happened when Labour were power in 1997-2010 ..... they cut taxes. One of the reasons why the economy experienced difficulties is because instead of building a surplus during the boom/growth period they chose instead to implement vote winning tax cuts.

And you presumably want further tax cuts.

And why do you think that is ? .....because people simply aren't interested in "policies".

Sorry Ernie, but thats complete cobblers.

Some of the opinion polls are showing that UKIP is the highest placed party for next Thursday's elections.

I don't know what UKIP policies are. You don't know what UKIP policies are. UKIP supporters don't know what UKIP policies are. UKIP candidates don't know what UKIP poicies are. And even Nigel Farage doesn't know what UKIP policies are.

No one quite frankly is interested in what UKIP policies are. That doesn't stop them leading in opinion polls though.

What policies? They are all zombie maggots.

The irony of the symbolism of that graph ^^
It's more flaccid than it is upstanding 😀

The irony of the symbolism of that graph

politics is like an Emperial Star Destroyer?

[img] [/img]

Show this video to anyone you know who thinks UKIP are anything original 🙂

[url=

measurement of all adult British knees[/url]

Sorry Ernie, but thats complete cobblers. I'm absolutely infuriated by the lack of policies. And politicians making vague, wooly noncommittal noises as a supposed substitute for them.

If people weren't bothered, then people wouldn't read broadsheet newspapers, watch Newsnight or Question Time, listen to the Today programme in the morning. Or generally get apoplectic with rage, and rant on internet forums

I disagree - there are parties with policies, and they are ignored, The Green Party has pages and pages and pages of fairly detailed in depth policies on everything you could imagine, all democratically agreed by the party as a whole at national conferences over a period of years - http://policy.greenparty.org.uk and yet people aren't much interested - The Green Party is dismissed as being only about the environment, despite having pretty good evidence to the contrary, available to everyone, fairly easily.

people simply aren't interested in "policies".

Seems like a reasonable assessment of the situation. You can tell people what your policies are, but that won't convince them to vote for you.

bokonon - Thatis why I just filled my postal vote in for the Green party. Seems to me they're saying a lot of things the labour party should be saying, if they weren't like a rabbit in the headlights, too scared to utter a word

Having just gone through an election down here in Oz where policy was fairly scant and an opposition who won because they were not the government it's a pattern all over. Soundbite headlines momentum it's all you need to win. Even better if the lot who are in are unpopular. Ukip for the pissed off tory who won't vote labour or the lefties who won't vote tory. What's the choice lib dem? They cover the I'm not racist but too. All based on nothing at all.

It was summed up that this generation would hit like on Facebook but not vote. Shout about it but not get involved. In some ways politics needs less tech and more time connecting to people.