[Closed] Why give Greece more cash?

Their treatment of Greece throughout this [b]boringly elongated [/b]crisis demonstrates how little they care about the people of Europe

Why give Greece more cash?

They will. There will be a sudden compromise.

In 3yrs time they'll be on 500billion euros of debt. Its akin to quietly keep giving them money frightened and scared and hoping someone else will sort the problem (or more likely) it'll be another German Chancellor (etc)'s problem to tarnish their reputation in the future.

Look at Bliar- how much crap did he get for the 2008 recession? None. He went.

Northwind - Member

How do you feel about relaxing your normal criteria, and overlooking obviously inaccurate figures, and then declaring it to be all my fault when in 5 years time I've not paid up?

Nail... head. The Germans (and everyone else) knew the Greeks (and the Italians, Portugese, Spanish) all basically made up the figures. And that they were all works of fiction. The Greeks employed Goldman Sachs to make everything look rosey. A really reputable bunch!

The EU knew it, yet they admitted them anyway because it suited them. They couldn't have anyone pointing out awkward economic realities about their grand political project now, could they?

Its like mortgage lenders and estate agents at the height of the last housing boom, issuing 100%+ 'self-certified' mortgages, where you made a claim as to how much you earned, without any prooof, and they accepted that at face value

The EU turned a blind eye to it all for reasons of political expediency, and this is the inevitable end result

It does make me laugh that people are taking sides, and looking for a good guy/bad guy narrative. There in't one. Both sides are as guilty as each other for this shambles.

They will. There will be a sudden compromise.

yep, esp if the markets keep falling. German will panic and agree to a modest haircut, just enough to keep this farce going for another year.....

It does make me laugh that people are taking sides, and looking for a good guy/bad guy narrative. There in't one. Both sides are as guilty as each other for this shambles.

Yep, they're both as stupid as each other. Locked into an abusive marriage which neither has the guts to call time on.

The EU knew it, yet they admitted them anyway because it suited them. They couldn't have anyone pointing out awkward economic realities about their grand political project now, could they?

Only two EU countries satisfied the convergence criteria for the Euro before it was launched in 1999, Luxemburg and Finland, all the others failed. Germany failed on two criteria - budget deficit and debt. The rules were bent for everyone, including for France and Germany, not just Greece.

Its all about degrees though, isn't it ernie?

Greece is showing just how far outside the criteria it really was. I rememeber reading that the main reason Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro was that he could see how far Italy was away from satisfying the conditions, yet was still being let in. That convinced him the whole thing was being made up as they went along.

And here we are.....

Can you imagine where this country would be now if we'd have been in the Euro and not been able to devalue the currency, and been relient on those who have been demonstrating their detatchment from reality for the last 5 years, and slavish following of idealogical dogma, regardless of the consequences?

and been relient on those who have been demonstrating their detatchment from reality for the last 5 years, and slavish following of idealogical dogma, regardless of the consequences?

That equally applies to any Tory minister, IDS and the poor must be punished or Osbourne and we must cut our way to growth!

IDS and the poor must be punished

I thought it was 'the poor must die quietly without anyone creating too much fuss' ?

[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/11/statistics-refused-benefits-death_n_7561918.html ]DWP Block Release Of Figures On Number Of People Dying After Benefits Stopped[/url]

[img] [/img]

I thought it was 'the poor must die quietly without anyone creating too much fuss' ?

Wasn't that a manifesto commitment?

Or was it tax credits for pushing disabled people under buses? Can't recall.

I thought it was to do with legalising peasant hunting, as a substitute for foxes.

I thought it was to do with legalising peasant hunting, as a substitute for foxes.

I'm not surprised that the DWP "blocked" the request for data on the number of claimants who died within 6 weeks of their benefits being blocked as anyone with half a brain can quite quickly see the administrative nightmare that would be created in coming up with data that was even halfway usable.

anyone with half a brain can quite quickly see the administrative nightmare that would be created in coming up with data

They have already previously come up with the data, so obviously not that difficult. Read the link 💡

[i]Data released by the government in 2012 showed that 10,600 people in the UK died between January and November 2011 once their benefits had been stopped. However, the up-to-date statistics have yet to be made public.

After a freedom of information request, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), an independent authority set up to uphold public information rights, agreed that there was no reason not to publish the figures.

"Given the passage of time and level of interest in the information it is difficult to understand how the DWP could reasonably withhold the requested information," The ICO said.[/i]

Presumably you think that everyone who works in the Information Commissioner's Office has less than half a brain ?

Question. If Greece do leave the euro, and go back to the drachma, does that not just leave them in more of a world of shit? I wouldn't imagine that their debt would just magically dissapear. So with a Drachma that's worth next to nothing, surely their debt(or their ability to pay rather) would just spiral even further?

Or would the debt and the greek government just continue working in yoyo?

I think that's what default means - declaring yourself bankrupt effectively?

I thought it was just missing a payment? (I can't claim to have a scooby tbh! 😆 ) Though I think, iceland for example, are still having to pay back their debt?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here?

Is the data properly coded with stuff like cause of death - suicide, accident, pigeon attack etc? - if not then it's a useful stick to beat ministers with, but otherwise not very informative.

10,600 does seem like a hefty number, and having published it previously, it's hard to make a case for not publishing it now.

Good point. What happens next?
If you're bankrupt as a country does the debt get wiped? Do they just get a really rubbish credit rating and can't get any loans etc?

If they default, then Germany sends the boys round...

[img] [/img]

And this will be their only source of funding....

[img] [/img]

The drachma or whatever they called their new currency would plummet like a stone, and they would not be able to afford to import essentials like fuel, they wouldn't even be able to provide power to the country.

There will be blackouts riots and looting, and we will have a third world country in Europe. History shows that countries placed under these conditions will often give rise to fascist political movement.

Frankly anyone who thinks that Greece leaving the euro will provide a guiding light to a land of milk and honey for other nations to follow is insane. If anything it would terrify other nations into towing the line for fear they may end up in the same hell hole.

Lots of countries have come through debt defaults without resorting to anarchy....

If you're bankrupt as a country does the debt get wiped? Do they just get a really rubbish credit rating and can't get any loans etc?

[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring ]This?[/url]

I think the German Finance Minister is a little scarier than Big Vern binners.

[img] [/img]

I keep expecting him to ask "is it safe ?"

[img] [/img]

.

There will be blackouts riots and looting, and we will have a third world country in Europe. History shows that countries placed under these conditions will often give rise to fascist political movement.

The social fabric won't collapse in Greece. There will be no Fascist takeover.

Lots of countries have come through debt defaults without resorting to anarchy....

I think we're in unchartered territory here though - with a country going bust while being part of a common currency, and having to start from scratch with a new/old one. That sounds like a recipe for anarchy to me. How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?

List of sovereign debt defaultors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default#List_of_sovereign_debt_defaults_or_debt_restructuring

a good review of the default process/drachma

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/what-would-happen-case-grexit

If Greece wouldn’t have already defaulted before it would introduce a new currency, Grexit would make it virtually certain that the country would default. It’s not wise to take out a considerable loan in a foreign currency, but that’s what Greece has done since 2001, when it entered the Eurozone. If Greece would introduce a new currency, which then likely would lose value against the euro, it would still need to pay back its debt in euro, which woud appreciate in value as compared to the new Drachma, making this task even harder.

If Greece would only pay back what it owes in a new, devalued currency, this would be considered a default. As a result, the Greek government would face higher borrowing rates in the future. In theory, the fact that it wouldn’t be burdened by an excessive 180% debt to GDP may serve as a factor countering this, giving that the financial situation of the government would look more rosy.

How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?

I just need to remember to actually sell them once they get valuable this time...

The social fabric won't collapse in Greece. There will be no Fascist takeover.

This. It seems to me that there's a certain amount of doom-mongering and hysteria being peddled which fits the interests of the creditors. Their only leverage is the fear of what will happen post-default. It will be bad of course, but the question that should be asked is who will it be bad for? For those who are already impoverished, which is a sizeable proportion of the population, it makes little difference. [url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/23/greece-solidarity-movement-cooperatives-syriza ]In lots of ways, it could be the start of something much better.[/url]

How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?

Given that just about everyone has withdrawn all they own in Cash, they can continue for a while using a Euro Black market whilst they start printing Drachmas, then they'll end up running both in parallel for ages as no one will want Drachmas.

The wildcard is just how badly the EU, the IMF and the ECB choose to behave. You never know, they might do OK but honestly I think the big motivator is going to be "Make sure everyone else shites themselves".

What if the population vote yes - then there will be some "fun and games"

Why don't they just declare themselves bankrupt, write off all their debts, then start up next week under a different name?
I works a treat for the bathroom shop down the road from me.

teamhurtmore - Member
Tsipras' final stunt was at least interesting politically.

So interesting that he is backtracking already. To repeat...

Just a shame that this is real life not a game

Poor show all round. Where is the mettle ( 😳 ) ?

Junker not happy, called Tsipras dishonest. At least all the handshake and smiling b/s for the cameras has stopped.

Greeks vote no - euro exit, EU to follow ?
Greeks vote yes - Syriza not credible negotiating team, cannot realistically stay in Government, new elections, continued delay, euro exit and Greeks beg to stay in the EU ?

A Yes vote could see a "solidarity" government formed with no Syriza representation at the negotiations but either way a Greek exit looks increasingly likely. El-Erian thinks its 85% likely (seems high to me)

I have accused jamba of not knowing what the heck he is talking about. Having read Juncker's speech just now, I have to say that he is not the worst offender. I think the OXI campaign are currently pissing themselves laughing and their vote will reach North Korea levels.

Is it just me, or does "You should not commit suicide because you're afraid of death", not make any sense at all? Anyway a stupid intervention. I reckon Juncker just put the seal on the likely referendum result.

Is it just me, or does "You should not commit suicide because you're afraid of death", not make any sense at all?

Esepcially dumb to say that to a society which is concerned about the rise in suicides due to economic hardship.

Charming comment from Juncker to the Greek population in his speech today referring to the referendum: "You should not commit suicide because you are afraid of death", that's disgusting.

I must admit I don't really know where my sentiments lie on the whole thing, both sides are hugely at fault for this, some kind of end game is needed as the can kicking has to stop. As such I suppose a Greek exit / default may be the best thing for them. Boy am I glad we didn't adopt the Euro!

I am not sure which is more surreal - the €100m cost of the referendum or the actual question that is going to be posed

Nice little starter for ten for Yannis.

'Should the draft agreement submitted by the EC, ECB, IMF at the Eurogroup on June 25 which consists of two parts that make up their full proposal be accepted? The first document is titled 'Reforms for the completion of the current program and beyond' and the second 'Preliminary debt sustainability analysis'

Respondents will be asked a simple yes or no.

It really is that simple!!

And Stiglitz having a good (and this time correct) dig

It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. [b]But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. [/b]The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.

It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.

As the Torygraph pointed out this morning, these bunch of clowns are also doing a stirling job on behalf of the NO! wing of the Tory party and UKIP, who I imagine will be keeping quiet and leaving them to do their referendum campaigning on their behalf

But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned.

Haven't leaned what? To me while the Euro zone hasn't covered it self in glory, the reality is that Greece has never come up with a sensible plan to tackle it's problems. It desperately needed to find a way of lower public expenditure, increase private enterprise and ensure it collected taxes, none of the suggestions I saw put forward gave proper solutions to these.

Junker not happy, called Tsipras dishonest.

Its easy to be 100 % correct if you behave like this 🙄
Who needs credibility anyway when one can just ignore the points made* 😕

* I do so hope you do a TJ and say you answered the question 😛
EDIT: on reflection a Paxman answer the question to Howard works just as well for me

stirling job

Boom, tish!

Well Stiglitz is first and foremost a Keynesian economist although he often misses the crux of what JMK said but that's another issue. So the lessons - (1) creditors have to take a hit too (not his main point); and (his main point) it's absurd to try to run a primary surplus at the height of a recession. How we got to this topsy-turvey position is another point altogether.

He misses the fundamental issue ie, that under the fixed exchange rate and without fiscal union, Greece was always terminally screwed from the outset. It has only ever been a matter of time before social unrest tipped the balance. The only outcome was to screw the young and the low paid, which is why it's odd that so-called lefties failed to spot this obvious outcome.

It desperately needed to find a way of lower public expenditure, increase private enterprise and ensure it collected taxes, none of the suggestions I saw put forward gave proper solutions to these.

Well, as YV pointed out at his very first EZ meeting, these objectives cannot all be achieved at the same time as servicing huge debts. It's like a simple law of physics. Unfortunately the finmins are either too dumb or too selfish to see the obvious.