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We’ve been beyond Tier 4 and had schools closed in Wales for three weeks and it doesn’t seem to have gone down much🤷♂️
Yep, plenty of non-conformance to the rules too with forest car parks full, honeypots overwhelmed and loads of people from as far away as London.
The country generally is fed up with the constantly changing rules, poor leadership and promises of 'it'll be over by September/Christmas/New Year etc only to see figures rise ridiculously fast. When De Pfeffell announces the lockdown I strongly suspect that adherence this time will be far, far lower than the first one. The only way to get control back now is with army/police intervention to force people to stay at home. Boris has lost the country at the worst possible time.
it doesn’t seem to have gone down much
How much has it gone up?
Boris is terrified of making unpopular decisions and seems to always do things reluctantly. We need confident decisions, people would respect that.
There was an article in The Guardian about exactly that, it's probably been linked to on here or the Boris thread. Also covers the "leak it to the media, gauge the public response" thing that has been going on for years now. What's the point of him making an announcement at 8pm if it's already been tweeted by his tame mouthpieces 2hrs in advance?
Boris has lost the country at the worst possible time.
Wait until they see that the promised unicorns and sunlit uplands haven't arrived either!
So all the kids have met for one day, swapped their infections they picked up over Christmas, given them to the teachers, and then taken them home…
Actions like insisting schools open today, and then (likely) announcing they are closed doesn't help the governments credibility. Hopefully people will remember this when it comes to the polls. If the expected school 'closures' are announced, how much remaining credibility does Boris have left? Have to wonder if someone else needs to come in now?
Welsh restrictions started on 20th Dec, and I suspect that it's more like 3-4 weeks before the impact of restrictions really start to have an effect. Another blog I follow reckons hospital admissions follow positive tests with approx a 10d lag, and then 7d lag from admissions to deaths. Like 3 waves following each other, you can't stop the other 2 once the first one is on the way.
Couple that to Christmas mixing, and also possibly an increase in transmission due to the new variant and I think 'not gone down much' is pretty well to be expected.
Have to wonder if someone else needs to come in now?
Can we put Hunt in for 12 months as an emergency measure? The Conservative Party can select another clown once we have this pandemic under control.
Thanking you! That was worth a read. Appreciated.
Uptodateish hospital admissions…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Worth looking at hospital occupancy while you’re there.
The other thing that I hope they are taking into account is the mix of the old and new strain on the numbers. You could have a situation where for example you have 50:50 old and new with R of 0.6 and 1.4 respectively and a net R of 1 e.g. fairly static numbers as the growth in one is cancelled by the decline in the other, but as the mix changes to favour of the more infectious strain the R and hence numbers start to get a whole lot worse.
Uptodateish hospital admissions…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
/blockquote>If you click into the data field it was last updated 22/12
Did schools in England go back today then? And if so they'll have been open for one day then shut again within 24 hrs? Is that correct?
If so I think it's fair to give the government a break on this one, I mean how could they have possible foreseen the need to close schools prior to today....
I'm sure you are all as shocked as I am..
🤔🤔
Schools will be open for key worker children. If allowed, our children go back tomorrow.
If you click into the data field it was last updated 22/12
More up-to-date data for England here:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
3k yesterday, quite a noticeable rise since the 25th.
Not sure a lockdown will work. Medway Kent was put into tier 4 and schools closed on the 20th Dec and the cases are now back up to 1058 per 100,000 for 25th to 31st dec according to the bbc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
It is 7-10 days for infections to become visible after a change I thought.
maybe we see the impact of the tier change and schools next week in the infection rate. I hope so anyway
most local schools seemed to be on an inset day today.
Kentishman - not enough gap from 20th to he 25th to expect to see any effect of the tightened restrictions and/or schools closing for christmas. same for crispo in S Wales and most of the southern end of the country
after school closures, short of the militarily enforced version of lockdown, not much else to be done, is there?
still amazes me that the continued strangulation of the economy, the increasingly obvious dire impact on the mental health of kids, teens, students, jobless, furloughed and essential workers is still being cheered on as a great thing by some. (im not saying there is a better choice..)
I'm not sure anyone is saying full lockdown is a good thing. Sadly it seems to be the only thing that will prevent deaths until the rollout of the vaccine.
Starmer sounded like a dithering tit on the radio earlier about schools. By God has he missed some opportunities.
When Hunt is making a better case than Starmer, we are truly through the looking glass.
TiReD
Easiest. Prediction. In. History.
Leadership is about taking unpopular decisions and carrying the populace with clear explanation. That explanation was available from before Christmas. That the epidemic was growing in the South due to a more transmissible strain and Tier 4 may not be sufficient due to schools.
It’s not actually THAT much more transmissible to be honest, but things have been balanced with R about unity so even a modest increase is enough to set things off again.
Is it not a bit immaterial why it was spreading at the rate it did from an action POV?
I'm not disputing the reason (new strain) though I suspect it is only a part of the larger reasons I'm just asking since we knew the infections were growing and the rate was increasing is that not enough to put the brakes on? (I'm asking scientifically not politically)
As I said months ago ... and not knocking your models in terms of details and prediction but surely a hand drawn log normal graph would have shown the need to have some sort of intervention before XMAS?
Ok hope we see an effect next week. But the one think that can not be recreated from the march lockdown is the fear. So I'm still not optimistic.
I’m not sure anyone is saying full lockdown is a good thing. Sadly it seems to be the only thing that will prevent deaths until the rollout of the vaccine.
Quite interesting bit on C4 news at the moment - talking about mutation risk undoing everything if the virus keeps circulating at high levels. They were saying even at 2million it takes over a year to vaccinate everyone. I think realistically we aren't going to hit 2million a week for a month or two or three - operation moonshot being the form horse?
Is it not a bit immaterial why it was spreading at the rate it did from an action POV?
yes, this. We must not let the fact that they only learned about the new strain until mid December obscure the fact that cases were skyrocketing by then. They should have acted on what was in front of them, you don't need to know what caused the victim's wound to know that you have to stop the bleeding.
Most of Scotlands population is in the central belt which is fairly densely populated. something like 4 million people in a strip around 60 miles x 30 miles ish
Got a text, earlier to book mum's jab!
Click on link then get taken to available appointments at a centre about 10 minutes drive away. Booked for Friday.
Could have got it done tomorrow but I need time to get mum round to the idea of leaving the house, it'll take some gentle, persistent cohersion.
I'm over the moon. Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Kelvin
Worth looking at hospital occupancy while you’re there.
I have a non urgent, non critical appointment tomorrow at 10am ... then sit around for a few hours before a scan.
No idea if I should/can go or not at this point but its pointless unless I can do the second scan in a week. I'm not even sure when I can repeat the dose to start again. (Assuming it's inadvisable to keep swallowing radio isotopes that should still be in me a week later)
poop - hope it goes smoothly for you.
Got a text, earlier to book mum’s jab!
Click on link then get taken to available appointments at a centre about 10 minutes drive away. Booked for Friday.
Great news!
theotherjonv
We must not let the fact that they only learned about the new strain until mid December obscure the fact that cases were skyrocketing by then. They should have acted on what was in front of them, you don’t need to know what caused the victim’s wound to know that you have to stop the bleeding.
I suspect part of the political answer will be about "scientific evidence"
As for Hunt .. why not just do like Iceland (the country not frozen food shop) and stop the politics and start acting on the scientific advice.
I’m over the moon. Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Jeez. How old is your mother?
Aged 91, we are down in Rochester in Kent.
Jeez. How old is your mother?
He has to go up into the attic to ask her. 🙂
Thanks guys.
Going to be a nightmare with mum as she hasn't left the house in about 18 months.... But im just so relieved.
Booking was extremely simple/fast via the app. Mandatory to wait at the centre for 15 minutes after and anyone on warfarin must bring their "yellow book", mum's not on it though anyway. They note that all doors and windows will be open and to dress warm.
I’m just asking since we knew the infections were growing and the rate was increasing is that not enough to put the brakes on?
That’s what Sage said.
Exams cancelled, why weren’t schools already working/accessing for that?
Schools open for one pointless day of spreading.
Late, late, late.
Waiting for the update....a bit disappointed they didn't have it synchronised
That’s what Sage said.
Once again illustrating the difference between following the scientific advice as acting on it.
Or maybe just illustrating the lack of good old British common sense ... even I could see that.
You can tell by his watch that he has pre-recorded this speech, presumably to avoid any mistakes or slip-ups.
Odds on he's pissed already?
scotroutes pic
I'd welcome her down here if you can spare but remember Jacina Harden did her exam last year (March 1st) and has got her results and is now gainfully employed.
Odds on he’s pissed already?
That's not a bad idea actually ... I should get slaughtered before I watch him!
Exams cancelled,
Nope. Usual cagey wording - just that 'some of them cannot take place in their current format'.
It's up to Gavlar and Ofqual now - we're in safe hands...
FFS
Keep kicking that can…
Must be serious given how tight a lead hes on, no wiggle waffle for once. All too late that.
can I still wonder round the town centre and get a takeaway coffee?
essential?
hmmmmm