So, whose received a survey from the ONS then? Our government is so bad at this pandemic, that "...this survey will be used to find the best way to manage the COVID 19 Pandemic..."
EG. They want the publics advice to help out. They must be screaming bonkers. My good natured ideas will be collected and used against me by Cummings, I'm not taking this Survey, I wonder how much it cost to put out, collate and er, likely be thrown in a bin.
And breathe. I’ve read it properly. Blood tests and swabs, I’m ok with that.
I wonder how long it will be until France is on the quarantine list
Always worth a squizz:
So, we’re not getting a contact tracing app at all in England now? Downgraded to an info only one… without a delivery date? [ No links yet, this is a word of mouth rumour ]
I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.
I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.
On returning to school, BJ has moved from 'science' to 'morals'. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.
He has no understanding of either.
Re da app.
I wish I’d put a tender in, but possibly a proven track record and no Tory donations or ministerial Mates would have gone against me.
A couple of mill for the newly specced one would be happy daze 🙂
And with that, he's off to Scotland on his holibobs... Clearly nothing going on nationally that needs his attention (although I guess his boss might still be at work to sort everything out?).
So much for '...working flat out'.
returning to school, BJ has moved from ‘science’ to ‘morals’. Not quite sure which ones Boris has though.
Its ok Boris said it was safe for children, no mention of their family or School Staff.
I just don’t think it would ever work with the 1m+ fantasy distancing rules as the app would be unable to accurately discern whether people were wearing masks/behind plastic screens not talking directly to one another,next to aircon etc.
It’s not about detecting people breaking the guidelines, it’s about letting people know if they have shared a space with people who have found out they have the virus. All the good advice (2m still stands, and 1m+ with mitigation such as mask is an alternative) does not prevent transmission, it merely reduces it. People isolating if they have the virus is the only way to stop it, and a contact tracing app can help people to identify that they could be carrying it, and to get a test, and isolate if positive. Of course, it’s useless alone, it requires good policy around testing and support for those isolating, but it IS needed.
I actually get a Your risk and threat levels in your area type app and it’s probably not a bad idea.
An app isn’t required for that. A gov.uk page would do it.
Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing. At least one can organise testing and all other actions around a single objective. The consequences of this objective may have knock-on effects for the rest of society such as reducing contacts elsewhere. But it is a coherent strategy.
We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools. But that may not come to pass as schools reopen. See how the cases increase by the end of September. It may come as a surprise, but I could only find two decent studies of schools opening. One in Korea, hardly representative, showed no additional cases. One in France showed that cases in children mimicked those in adults.
Prevalence studies show no age differences in rates of infection. Establishing child to adult transmission has been more challenging (Study related) but the null hypothesis is that children can spread the virus to adults. The attack rate in a house looks is about 50%. So think children can pass the virus on within the home. If living with vulnerable adults, I’d limit contacts if a school has tested positive. I’d also be testing schools weekly, including teachers.
Expect more local lockdowns, closure of facilities, restricted commuting and no lifting of mask wearing. Children will get used to having nose swabs.
But it is a coherent strategy.
If it had been the strategy since May, I’d agree. Attempting to move to it as kids are returning for the new term sounds a lot like just more government as a PR exercise.
Having an objective of keeping schools open is no bad thing.
No doubt, I'm just amused by the fact that they still spout the children are not likely to get ill rubbish and people still fall for it without thinking, hang on what if my kids pass it to me? (I get no one gives a shite about the staff). Mind you I'm still seeing loads of people in shops with masks not covering noses so shouldnt be too surprised, how stupid do you need to be.
This is probably the most comprehensive summary of schools at the moment. Not a lot of data and less knowledge.
Basically it is hard to tease any reasonable patterns. Older children seem to have the same transmission as adults but less morbidity. Younger children may or may not. This may or may not be down to expression levels of ACR2 in tissues. Masks have and have not been made compulsory but their efficacy has not been tested.
If I was an at risk teacher in a secondary school, I’d wear a mask whilst at school at all times. Particularly if teaching in a secondary school.
frankconway
SubscriberSo much for ‘…working flat out’.
Oh be fair, after all they've been literally "working night and day" for months now, he's due a sleep
We believe that about 50% of transmission is in schools.
That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.
R is likely above 1 already, despite what SAGE say. It's not high enough to be a problem right now but the combination of schools, furlough winding down and worse weather is likely to cause problems.
Is it of any interest to this discussion that my wife who's an assistant head gets annoyed with the headlines that teachers/heads are not happy with schools going back? She says the unions have not consulted their members and are making statements that don't represent the staff of schools. She says there's an overwhelming desire in her school to get the job done. Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.
Teachers and heads want their kids back, they know how vulnerable a lot of the children are and that matters more than the risks.
That's just as much a generalisation as the thing you're arguing against.
My trust for example, has taken a very firm and vocal line of 'only what's best and safe for everyone involved'. That might be everyone back in as 'normal', but might also look very different in some local contexts. As a teacher and Head of Year, I absolutely want what is best for the students in my care, but would not want to put anyone at risk to achieve that - all I ask is for the information to be able to form an opinion on what that might look like...
That seems an implausibly high estimate to me.
It’s based on mixing patterns and transmission of influenza. So yes, hopefully it is a big over-estimate. But secondary schools will be interesting because they look like pubs for transmission. Same explosive close contact transmission pattern.
We will see. But the science is pretty cloudy. Politicians love certainty but that’s not how science works in its infancy.
Yeah Colournoise, didn't read my post back. Meant to say the teachers and head at her school were overwhelmingly in support of going back. Can't speak for other schools as I don't know their opinions.
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So Boris has been applauded by the WHO for his hard and fast approach to local lockdowns, and our increase are smaller than Spain and a France. This sounds good?
What do you think?
This sounds good?
Sadly, that's all that seems to matter.
Hmm… I hadn’t realised that Edward Argar, health minister, was Serco’s PR man. That’s a coincidence. How’s our “world beating” centralised TTI going? Still using the “NHS” badge? Still obstructing local TTI efforts? At least Serco have announced they’re going to get rid of some of the staff they’d had twiddling their thumbs for months waiting for the system to get going.
What do you think?
I'm not allowed to post that because some people think I'm too negative...
You can post whatever you like but expect to be called out if you post rubbish
It’s a plandemic not pandemic…
^ I’ll bite. Does that mean terrorism, biological warfare? Does it mean that the course of the pandemic is subject to planning? Specifics, evidence? Cute phrase, but what are you actually saying?
^^ Ah, new profile. First comment.
I’ve been had.
@Malvern Rider - ignore Tonka, they're just toying with you
Hands up who's getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
The favoured method is to annoy him, wait around a bit and then he'll send a couple of lads to administer it at your front doorstep.
Ah no no no, it will be 100% voluntary.
Honest.
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
After you. I like my vaccines GLP tested and subject to suitable efficacy trials. All medicines and vaccines are given based on benefit-risk. The Russian adenovirus does not have a measure of either (yet). Derek Lowe is always worth a read. He's as scathing as me!
Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.
An obvious lie, no?
@TiRed - that Derek Lowe article is interesting and makes some good points
Hands up who’s getting on the next plane to Russia to get hit up with Putins potion?
No need for that, Dom has some comrade mates, he's going to get a vaccine deal for the UK that will make the ~£1Bn PPE scandal look a drop in the ocean.
Nah it’ll be ok. He tested it on his least favourite daughter.
The legion Boris kids must be relieved about the animosity and anonymity that'll spare them this sort of PR nonsense.
Sunak's response to recession and unemployment, 'nobody will be left without hope.' That's cheering and it's good to know he's got a plan.
