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[Closed] What would it take for house prices to REALLY plummet?

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Clearly - I still don’t see it now.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 10:54 am
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You give it to the treasury so the tories can give it to their mates. Simple..


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 10:57 am
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Reading this with increasing sympathy for all sides and can't see any obvious solutions, all I will say is that we are walking backwards into the future so what we see in the past has to be used to each of our own advantages and priorities going forward, it's a wise man who learns from the mistakes of others. Anecdotally I'd like to say that I was happy to be renting when my pal and his wife were paying an 18% mortgage in the eighties and working 24/6 , getting reported to social services for leaving their kids home alone 'cos they were working ALL the time to feed themselves and the bank, his wife only cooked for husband and kids , eating leftovers to save pennies.Now they are quids in but it's been a struggle for them. Another interesting case.....12 years ago a Bulgarian lad turned up at my workplace, straight off the bus penniless, we are 25 miles from Manchester city centre, he didn't know where he was but our boss set him on as a labourer on minimum wage, now he is still on minimum wage but is buying a nice semi near the park is married with two lovely daughters and drives a 3 year old Merc, he thinks England is great, don't know what this proves, just saying..........


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 11:18 am
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No one inherits anything was his point.....

But that would require whole world revolution other wise those with money would offshore it.

The problem with any radical policies is there always another country willing to accept your money and undermine the original country


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 11:33 am
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No one inherits anything was his point…..

Ahh I see. Of course that is an impossible solution as people would simply gift their property to whoever before they die.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:05 pm
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100% inheritance tax would not work. Marin you have 3 weeks left to live. Oh bugger, turn all my savings into gold if I have any and give the godchildren a shoe box of gold to go sell off as and when. Illegal yes, impossible no.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:08 pm
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Universal basic income solves all these issues, but people will somehow have to get over their lazy stereotypes to any sort of 'benefit' system.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:09 pm
 poly
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A lot of people don’t live in cheap parts of the country and we can’t all move to them can we. Are half the country supposed to move to where property is cheaper to sort of this issue?

Well covid has taught the world that we don’t all need to go to offices to work - so therefore the clustering of people around our big cities and the consequential impact on house demand/prices is something which could change.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:14 pm
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Oh bugger, turn all my savings into gold if I have any and give the godchildren a shoe box of gold

You wait....

Time passes....

Marin sits down and starts singing about gold...


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:15 pm
 Ewan
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100% (or something close to it) inheritance tax would be possible with the correct political will. Just apply the same deprevation of assets rules that apply to care homes or just say that any gifts within 15 years of death are subject to the tax.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:20 pm
 Ewan
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The gold problem is also fairly easy to address. A box of gold only has a value to the holder if they can use it - if you gave your kids a box of gold what are they going to say when they come to use it for a house deposit and they're asked where it comes from?

Note I don't think it will happen, esp once Scotland leaves the union in the next few years. After that it'll be a Tory driven race to the bottom.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 12:23 pm
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Universal basic income solves all these issues,

In what way does that mythical solution help..... Ubi will drive up the price of any in demand commodity by UBI value.... You'd just giving BTL owners more cash to throw at their port folio


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 1:42 pm
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You could happily subsidise your life with gold sold off or a box of money whilst saving legitimate funds. There is no one easy solution and 100% inheritance tax will just lead to even bigger tax fraud on a massive scale.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 1:48 pm
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Wait, we're up to shoe boxes full of gold now?

Kids today...


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 1:50 pm
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Ubi will drive up the price of any in demand commodity by UBI value…. You’d just giving BTL owners more cash to throw at their port folio

You are talking about inflation which is always the first argument against UBI. Governments can control inflation very successfully e.g vast quantitative easing did not lead to inflation. UBI gives everyone liquidity regardless of where they come form. It's captalism just not from zero.

Also we have house prices inflation now, BTL is not built on cash it's access to credit


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 3:13 pm
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Honestly, perhaps this is the issue. For me Cougar, it’s your scenario (houses at £60k, people on minimum wage buying a new build) that don’t have any basis in my reality. Average house price where I live is about £300k.

Sure, and I appreciate that we're an outlier here in the opposite direction. I can only dream of being able to afford such a property, it's taken me to my late 40s to get to this point. I could no doubt have made better decisions along the way as regards where my money went, but here we are.

Yep, you cannot just give examples of people buying houses in very cheap parts of the country. A lot of people don’t live in cheap parts of the country and we can’t all move to them can we. Are half the country supposed to move to where property is cheaper to sort of this issue?

All? Of course not. But I'll wager there's a lot fewer who cannot move than you'd think. Most people won't want to move for any number of perfectly valid reasons: they like their job; they want to be close to ailing relatives; their mates are all down there; it's been their home all your life; and so forth.

But ultimately that's the choice you make. You can buy your quarter of a million pound house that's falling apart whilst arguing that you "can't" move elsewhere because you get free childcare from your parents; you could move 200 miles north, get a nicer property for half the price so you or your wife could stay at home looking after the kids, or put the sackload of cash you've just saved towards day care even; you could move your parents up with you.

Someone doesn't want to move, that's absolutely fine and totally understandable. If roles were reversed I'd be reticent to move also. This is the first time I've done it, I'm moving seven miles away and I'm frankly bloody terrified. But as someone said above and I've floated previously in other threads, the current situation is going to mean that a lot of people (and businesses) have suddenly realised that they don't need to spend two hours a day commuting. And if the primary reason for living where you live is a job in the city that you can now do working from home then, well... no-one's nailed your feet to the floor.

"What would it take for house prices to REALLY plummet?" How about a near-vertical drop in the demand for commuter belt housing?


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 3:15 pm
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I'm going to invest in shoeboxes.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 3:28 pm
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You are talking about inflation

I think your over complicating things.

Give everyone a UBI it lifts their spending power by UBI +wage.

Resetting/readjusting zero will not help.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 3:40 pm
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All? Of course not. But I’ll wager there’s a lot fewer who cannot move than you’d think

Okay, and what do yo think would happen if 50% of the people moved from expensive places to cheaper places. The cheaper places would get a lot more expensive because of a A)shortage of supply and b) because more people live there and other things would come with that like the work opportunities.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:00 pm
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I think your over complicating things.

Give everyone a UBI it lifts their spending power by UBI +wage.

Resetting/readjusting zero will not help

Not in isolation, no, but with the right regulation it could.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:06 pm
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Let's follow the logical conclusion of everyone who can't afford to live moving, how does this actually work the vast majority of jobs still require you to be present - who is going to deliver your parcels, serve your food, look after the elderly, fix your car etc.. I thought we learnt the importance of key workers..


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:26 pm
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Shouldn’t they have saved up some claps?


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:33 pm
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It **** hard to get a house

Yes, but it’s hard for everyone, even counting those with parental help and/or other good fortune.

Sorry that's just not the case. For those with well off generous parents it's patently obviously easier.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:52 pm
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100% (or something close to it) inheritance tax would be possible with the correct political will. Just apply the same deprevation of assets rules that apply to care homes or just say that any gifts within 15 years of death are subject to the tax

But those rules don't work either, do they. All the informed, well off people nip off to Legal and General to get themselves a "life insurance investment policy" with their lids as trustees, job done

Or so I hear.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 4:59 pm
 Ewan
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But those rules don’t work either, do they. All the informed, well off people nip off to Legal and General to get themselves a “life insurance investment policy” with their lids as trustees, job done

There doesn't have to be loop holes in tax law you know. They're only their due to lobbying from interest groups.

This is a weird thread. A few suggestions have been made as to how to achieve a fairer society - e.g. a well structured 100% inheritance tax perhaps combined with UBI. Sure it's unlikely, but that's because people such as those saying it's impossible on this thread or those who are suggesting that people who are struggling to buy a house just need to work harder won't vote for policies such as this. There are plenty of things in the past that sounded like they could never happen until they did - e.g. the welfare state, banning of hunting with dogs, the universal declaration of Human rights, gay marriage, etc etc. All things that we now look back on and think that the old status quo was insane.

As we live in a democracy everyone is entitled to their view and that's fine. Evidentally there are many people on the thread who are fine with the status quo - I just hope those people are objectively honest about why that is with themselves.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 5:58 pm
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Okay, and what do yo think would happen if 50% of the people moved from expensive places to cheaper places.

I've no idea. I'm saying most people have options. I'm not speculating about whether it'd be good or bad if they took different ones, your guess is as good - probably better, I'm no economist - as mine.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 6:17 pm
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A few suggestions have been made as to how to achieve a fairer society – e.g. a well structured 100% inheritance tax perhaps combined with UBI.

Which ended up with shoeboxes full of gold...

Evidentally there are many people on the thread who are fine with the status quo

I think you'll find that most people are not happy with it, but they recognise that as pretty much the entire UK economy is based on it, the best option for most people is to use the status quo as the framework to work within in order to live their lives.

I just hope those people are objectively honest about why that is with themselves.

If you're going to do this kind of passive-aggressive shite at least make it interesting.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 6:24 pm
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House prices have gone up 1% since this thread started! 🙂


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 6:48 pm
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Let’s follow the logical conclusion of everyone who can’t afford to live moving, how does this actually work the vast majority of jobs still require you to be present – who is going to deliver your parcels, serve your food, look after the elderly, fix your car etc.. I thought we learnt the importance of key workers..

...and yet that London with the worst house price nonsense in the UK still works...parcels are delivered, food is served, the elderly are looked after, cars are fixed. It's a poor system but it works and in the absence of any other system and with its' economic implications, it's probably best to get on with it.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 6:52 pm
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…and yet that London with the worst house price nonsense in the UK still works…parcels are delivered, food is served, the elderly are looked after, cars are fixed. It’s a poor system but it works

There's a shocking amount of poverty in London, which suggests that the system works for you if you're online shopping, eating out, getting your arse wiped or having your bimmer serviced. Less so if you're doing any of that work.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 7:16 pm
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Evidentally there are many people on the thread who are fine with the status quo – I just hope those people are objectively honest about why that is with themselves.

I'm not "fine with it" but I'm pragmatic enough to recognise I'm powerless to change a financial system, that I've only got do many units of energy, and so I need to deploy them sensibly to get the most favourable outcome I can.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 7:18 pm
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There’s a shocking amount of poverty in London, which suggests that the system works for you if you’re online shopping, eating out, getting your arse wiped or having your bimmer serviced. Less so if you’re doing any of that work.

yes....
yes.........

We know this and no one is celebrating it or cheering it or happy with it, but that's how it is, that's how it has been and that's how it will be for the foreseeable future.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 7:23 pm
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In what way does that mythical solution help….. Ubi will drive up the price of any in demand commodity by UBI value…. You’d just giving BTL owners more cash to throw at their port folio

You are right, except portfolio is one word 😉 but whilst I am a strong believer in UBI it cannot be introduced on it's own. It needs at the very least rent controls as well, and possibly other measures to ensure it isn't just gobbled up by inflation.

Of course, if you're a Tory and want to see it fail, not doing these things is a great way to torpedo it for generations.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 7:24 pm
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Lifetime housing. The house is re-sold when you die. No exceptions. If your children want it, they get an automatic 20% off the price, houses can't be passed on within the purchaser lifetime,  Money goes to a local quango that builds social hosing.

i reckon house prices would plummet.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 8:02 pm
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Lifetime housing. The house is re-sold when you die. No exceptions

You mean rental?


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 8:06 pm
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Lifetime housing. The house is re-sold when you die. No exceptions. If your children want it, they get an automatic 20% off the price, houses can’t be passed on within the purchaser lifetime, Money goes to a local quango that builds social hosing.

i reckon house prices would plummet.

It's the best idea I've seen in this thread.

Beats UBI and shoeboxes of gold for me.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 8:16 pm
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What if you want to move?
Or emigrate?
Or go into a home?

If I've paid for the house, it's mine, and i can sell it whenever I want to, to whoever I want to, for however much I want.

Still a bit shoeboxy for me.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 8:19 pm
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We know this and no one is celebrating it or cheering it or happy with it, but that’s how it is, that’s how it has been and that’s how it will be for the foreseeable future.

Actually, lots of people (including myself, until I actually thought it through) have been happy with it, through support of most recent interventions in the housing market such as the £15k stamp duty bung or help to buy. I don't think getting on with it and being mindful of the impact of high house prices are necessarily mutually exclusive.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 8:57 pm
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What if you want to move?

You sell it, and buy another just like you do now, but this way 100% of the housing stock eventually goes back onto the market.

Or emigrate?

Out of scope of OP question, I think it's called "mission creep" Here we're discussing how you force a housing crash, not how to afford emigrating.

Or go into a home?

The quango that build social hosing could also build and maintain social housing for the elderly if you want. But again, it's mission creep.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 9:15 pm
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...and my shoebox factory?


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 10:12 pm
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Your investment is worthless now crikey.


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 10:25 pm
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🙂


 
Posted : 23/08/2020 10:29 pm
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or just say that any gifts within 15 years of death are subject to the tax.

So we’d all have to declare our Christmas and birthday presents from our parents just in case they might die within 15 years?


 
Posted : 24/08/2020 12:19 am
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Depends. Are you talking about avoiding or evading a hypothetical tax?


 
Posted : 24/08/2020 12:22 am
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Lifetime housing. The house is re-sold when you die. No exceptions. If your children want it, they get an automatic 20% off the price, houses can’t be passed on within the purchaser lifetime, Money goes to a local quango that builds social hosing.

Maybe adjust the concept to affordable rent controlled housing, rented from a local authority, once capital costs of construction are covered by rent, income can go into a pot for upkeep of properties and/or to cover costs for further housing construction? Upon a tenants death or vacating of the property it is available for a new tenant with a need for housing to live in. Not a million miles from, oh what's it called... A council house?

The shortfall is social housing still, in so many areas the gap is filled by private landlords with varying ethical standards.

BTL has been so enticing for people with the spare capital over the last 30 years precisely because there are lots of desperate people just wanting a place to live who will cover your mortgage while you accrue equity, which is fine.

But social housing should be the first choice and we've tied local authorities hands, first by flogging most of the stock off, then by letting developers wriggle out of any social housing commitments tied to planning and most recently by not allowing authorities the right to remortgage against their remaining properties in order to fund new construction.

Because, shock horror, our national government don't want to fund social housing construction. They want as near as possible an entirely private housing sector, where those with capital have control over those without in order to generate yet more personal wealth...


 
Posted : 24/08/2020 1:48 am
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