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So Al Cairns (who is tipped to be a future Labour leader) says we're on a war footing and Europe is now firmly in the crosshairs of Putin, no doubt with Trump's blessing. It all seems depressingly inevitable doesn't it? Is there any way of avoiding it?
(PS new thread because it's bigger than just Ukraine, Trump, UK govt etc)
I've never heard of Al Cairns. Putin has already made it clear he will attack more European countries. He can't be ignored. And the USA can't be depended on.
It does seem that way...there needs to be a huge change in tact and direction from many 'leaders' to avoid this.
I'm just hoping no-one decides to go nuclear - as much as all this fighting is absolutely awful, I do think nuclear is going to be far far worse for everyone.
So if all the leaders could get together and all get a serious talking to and they all change direction, that would be for the best...as long as the direction is peaceful and working together...which will be very hard to do when the tech bros are also trying to muscle in and control stuff to increase their wealth and power.
USA is going to be looking at all the ways it can make money out of everything, so will happily provide arms and services at a cost...if they aren't being attacked on their soil, they are happy to support with whatever they can as it is all sellable. However, I'm not really clear on why they are causing so many fights with their neighbours just now - distraction perhaps?
Crikey, look at me, getting older (daily) so should be getting wiser and I'm posting even more depressing stuff!
Deterrence.
Yeah lets build more nukes. That'll solve it. It's not like we already have enough of them to destroy the world, maybe if we just have a few more everything will be ok. 🙄
I've never heard of Al Cairns.
You've not been paying attention then. He's the poster boy of many labour MPs who are looking past Streeting/Rayner/Burnham. In fact maybe that's why he's suddenly in the news banging his drum. Going to war with Putin as a vehicle to become PM is probably a bit extreme but I wouldn't put it past the modern labour party.
What’s most terrifying is the thought that if Putin does decide to say start bombing Poland, the Americans would do absolutely nothing, which kind of renders NATO pretty much redundant. The post Second World War consensus is now well and truly over
So yeah… we all need to start to spend a lot more money on (none nuclear) arms, whether we want to or not. Trump is actually right about that (in the same way a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day).
I think it was Tim Marshall who said that it’s a long term threat because if Putin carked it tomorrow, what would emerge in his place would doubtless be even worse
What’s most terrifying is the thought that if Putin does decide to say start bombing Poland, the Americans would do absolutely nothing, which kind of renders NATO pretty much redundant.
I'm of the opinion that Trump and Putin have done a backroom non-aggression deal so think you might be right. Putin gets eastern europe, Trump gets the west. It's like 1939 all over again.
Is there any way of avoiding it?
Putin gets taken out, possibly Trump at the same time. Don't ask me how, no idea.
Why get into the costs of a war when it's based on the ideology of one man, the rest around them would rather grow rich and old.
Anyway, not sure why you are doing this to yourself again Daz!
There's a govt defence minister in the news saying we're going to war. It's really not me making it up!
Just looked at the BBC website. Most disturbing headline I saw was this one: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6008er5zgo
Going to war with Putin as a vehicle to become PM is probably a bit extreme but I wouldn't put it past the modern labour party.
Worked for Tony Blair (if you replace "Putin" with "Saddam Hussein")
Going to war with Putin as a vehicle to become PM is probably a bit extreme but I wouldn't put it past the modern labour party.
Worked for Tony Blair (if you replace "Putin" with "Saddam Hussein")
He became PM in 1997. Iraq was 2003 and influenced him stepping down in 2007.
If you're going to be snarky at least try to be accurate.
Is this the same Russia/Putin that hasn't defeated Ukraine nearly 4 years on from invading, sorry performing a "special operation" it? Even Putin surely isn't stupid enough to think he can win 2 wars by attacking Poland (who have a pretty advanced military vs Ukraine) as well (and who are a NATO country).
TBH I'm surprised there haven't been multiple attempts on Putin's life since the Ukraine invasion... I can only assume whoever is waiting in the wings behind him is an even bigger bellend/psychopath.
Just looked at the BBC website. Most disturbing headline I saw was this one:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/britain-war-footing-russian-nato-west-next-target-5HjdPJn_2/
Yeah lets build more nukes. That'll solve it.
Is that what I said?
Anyway, not sure why you are doing this to yourself again Daz!
Deterrence doesn't need to be Nukes. Ways to cripple their economy even more. Cloning James Corden a million times and threatening to unleash them across Russia.
A lot of what he said was focussed around asymmetric warfare. Hence some new developments around cyber, etc. There's probably more in there concerning the black side of defence, intelligence, etc. if HMG are viewing the USA as an unreliable partner there's likely a need to develop further for key infrastructure resilience.
There are some key gaps within conventional defence capabilities though. Just take the AJAX debacle as one example. There is also the pivot for the Army moving out from the shadow of counterinsurgency to a peer threat, that move started a while ago but again gaps in equipment and capabilities need to be filled for that to be fully realised.
Deterrence is just nukes. It's having an integrated defence posture with capability and the will to use it.
If you're going to be snarky at least try to be accurate.
Yes, to be accurate he was of course already PM but the whole Gulf thing, while very divisive in the UK, still gave him the wartime leader stance he was after with President Bush.
Yeah lets build more nukes. That'll solve it.
Is that what I said?
Anyway, not sure why you are doing this to yourself again Daz!
Cloning James Corden a million times and threatening to unleash them across Russia.
As RM says ^^
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
When we're discussing conscription (or similar) and spending more than 3.5% of GDP in 10 years time, then we'll be closer
There's a massive hybrid threat, but that isn't the same thing and it's unclear how to combat it
Yes, Russia could go after the Baltic states and possibly Moldova
Poland is the USAs first line in its missile defence from Russia and they've invested heavily there, so Poland won't be a route into continental Europe IMHO
Is this the same Russia/Putin that hasn't defeated Ukraine nearly 4 years on from invading, sorry performing a "special operation" it? Even Putin surely isn't stupid enough to think he can win 2 wars by attacking Poland (who have a pretty advanced military vs Ukraine) as well (and who are a NATO country
This.
I think Labour are simply enjoying talking up War/defence spending 'cos of their failed attempts to run a country.
We get world war 3 vibes every few months from someone or other.
I don't think it will happen. Makes no sense.
Labour are always going on about this sort of thing.
Plenty of instability to come for sure but that's normal these days.
Spend the money on fixing country instead and let's stop Labour having a Daily Mail meltdown with cartoon strategic maps.
And let's not forget there's been a 'unprecedented times , war footing, axis of evil , new terror threat.' literally every single decade as long as I can remember.
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
Mark Rutte and the head of French armed forces have said as much just recently.
Yeah lets build more nukes.
Not nukes, but having a semblance of a functioning defence force and a readied population is more the answer.
If the school bully knows your likely to put up a fight then they're less likely to try and start one.
Group of German journalists done some digging and found that Russian ships were in the vicinity with the recent drone attacks.
https://www.digitaldigging.org/p/they-droned-back
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
"I don't think war is unforseeable."
(If you know you know.)
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
Because it grabs headlines. And because we (proles) have probably got no idea what shithousery the Russians are up to. But it's not hard to imagine they're up to stuff.
This is the country that has conducted offensive operations on UK soil so it's not like it's out of character behaviour.
And let's not forget there's been a 'unprecedented times , war footing, axis of evil , new terror threat.' literally every single decade as long as I can remember.
How many of those decades have included a totalitarian dictatorship conducting a war of territorial conquest in Europe?
What is your threshold for arming? Bearing in mind the lead time for lots of these gizmos is >10 years...
Worked for Tony Blair (if you replace "Putin" with "Saddam Hussein")
No it didn't.
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
Amazing. Didn't realise you were a defence expert as well as an economics ones. Can't wait to see your hot takes on this topic.
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
Why would you believe what any politician says?
I remember reading this, can't think where though 🤔
He's the poster boy of many labour MPs who are looking past Streeting/Rayner/Burnham. In fact maybe that's why he's suddenly in the news banging his drum.
And let's not forget there's been a 'unprecedented times , war footing, axis of evil , new terror threat.' literally every single decade as long as I can remember.
How many of those decades have included a totalitarian dictatorship conducting a war of territorial conquest in Europe?
What is your threshold for arming? Bearing in mind the lead time for lots of these gizmos is >10 years...
How many of those decades have included a totalitarian dictatorship conducting a war of territorial conquest in Europe?
What is your threshold for arming? Bearing in mind the lead time for lots of these gizmos is >10 years...
In Ukraine which happens to be in Europe.
Last time I checked he's still doing that one.
Is it any scarier than NK, China, AL-Q have been previously?
No.
And each and every time we've gone though your type of argument.
I'm more worried about the state of the country domestically thanks.
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
You're saying liberals like a war?
We're nowhere near to a "war footing"
So why is a govt defence minister saying that? Should we not believe him?
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
Amazing. Didn't realise you were a defence expert as well as an economics ones. Can't wait to see your hot takes on this topic.
And I'm probably not interested in yours.
Aren't we all here just saying stuff?
I'm not asking you to agree or read them.
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
You're saying liberals like a war?
Yep. Always first to volunteer someone else up.
The same libs will pipe up about being out of money for fixing the country - will crow for plenty of money on defence being spent.
Is this the same Russia/Putin that hasn't defeated Ukraine nearly 4 years on from invading, sorry performing a "special operation" it? Even Putin surely isn't stupid enough to think he can win 2 wars by attacking Poland (who have a pretty advanced military vs Ukraine) as well (and who are a NATO country).
Exactly.
If Putin had been successful in taking over the whole of Ukraine in ten days (or whatever his original goal was) then I think we'd have every reason to worry that he wouldn't stop there. But the fact that four years on they are taking massive losses for tiny gains just shows that they are not the (conventional) military threat that they'd like to think they are.
I can't see Russian tanks rolling into the rest of Europe any time soon.
I'm also pleasantly surprised to find that, despite what must be huge frustration about the slow progress of the war, Putin hasn't resorted to any sort of nukes.
Maybe (once this is all over) they'll have a massive rearmament programme. If so, we'd have to match it. But I'm not sure their economy could stand it.
What is much more likely is that they continue to try to destabilise the West through hybrid warfare, which includes things like supporting far right parties, Trump, Brexit etc. That's the thing we've got to learn to defend ourselves against much better than we are: hostile foreign actors taking advantage of our free speech laws to destabilise our economies and political systems.
However, I'm not really clear on why they are causing so many fights with their neighbours just now - distraction perhaps?
One of Putin's/Russia's opinions is that great powers have a sphere of influence that encompasses neighbouring countries, and they have an unfettered right to do what they want in those countries/that sphere. This is obviously a philosophy that makes Trump indecently excited, and so he's started getting the US to act in a similar way towards its neighbours.
I heard it too.
Always goes down well with liberals.
They love the idea of ignoring the economy, NHS, Schools and crime but they sure do want some ammo.
You're saying liberals like a war?
Yep. Always first to volunteer someone else up.
The same libs will pipe up about being out of money for fixing the country - will crow for plenty of money on defence being spent.
Strangely (there's plenty more on the party website)
The Liberal Democrats’ ‘war readiness’ package includes a new bonus scheme to boost army numbers – putting the British Army in the best possible position to deter a war with Russia. This would involve giving a £10,000, one-off bonus to non-specialist new recruits who complete training and serve for two years. etc.
Didn't realise you were a defence expert as well as an economics ones. Can't wait to see your hot takes on this topic.
War/defence is the main area which supports the MMT narrative so I'm suprised you're so dismissive of rone's economic opinions. I think the explanation of why Cairns is talking up the prospect of war is probably due to the fact that the govt are desperate for economic growth. They can't spend money elsewhere in the economy because it would betray the lie that there is no money to spend. But war is the main exception to the austerity narrative. There is always a magic money tree when it comes to financing weapons and the military, all it requires is the threat. I'm not saying the threat doesn't exist but it seems to be a convenient solution to the protracted problem of stagnant economic growth. The problem is that armaments and armies often become self-fulfilling phenomena.
There’s no need to look for self interested Machiavellian reasons (that happen to align with your own political obsessions) why politicians across Europe now need to talk about increasing spending on our defences from this point forward… it’s much more simple than that… Putin has given them no choice but to stop clinging on to the “peace dividend”. That period in European history is over for now. And Trump is hammering that point home. It can’t be ignored or wished away by anyone in any government in any European country.
That LibDem policy was exactly what went through my head when someone mentioned conscription. There’s so much that can be done before getting anywhere near conscription. We’ve deliberately cut the professional forces right back, and will need to begin a process of reversing that.
It can’t be ignored or wished away by anyone in any government in any European country.
Bit confused because when I started this thread I was taking Cairns' comments at face value, but some on here who seem pretty clued up about war and defence issues say we're not on a war footing or under the immediate threat of a major war as suggested by Cairns and Rutte. Which is it?
If you just watch 10 mins of any Kremlin TV outlet, you'll soon understand that enemy no1 in Europe is the UK. Not NATO, not Ukraine - they've very careful to only ever talk about getting rid of the "neo-Nazi" govt in Ukraine. It's the UK. They blame the UK for espionage, for propaganda, for training Ukrainian troops, for supply weaponry, for sabotaging peace talks, everything.
We are, as far as the Russian are concerned, already at war.
It can’t be ignored or wished away by anyone in any government in any European country.
Bit confused because when I started this thread I was taking Cairns' comments at face value, but some on here who seem pretty clued up about war and defence issues say we're not on a war footing or under the immediate threat of a major war as suggested by Cairns and Rutte. Which is it?
Who really knows? None of us here are sat on the intelligence briefings to truly know the picture.
With my legacy knowledge, I know enough to know it won't be great.
And sadly there are some who think it's all hyperbole.
He may be speaking from a political perspective in terms of spending and resourcing capability. The military being on a war footing is a very different thing and I'm not hearing anything out of the ordinary, if I were I'd be very concerned. So it may be helpful to separate the two out.
One is an input, the other an output.
The same libs will pipe up about being out of money for fixing the country - will crow for plenty of money on defence being spent.
I thought there was general agreement across most of Europe that increased military spending is a must given the threat of Russia on one side and the threat of US withdrawing support for Europe on the other.
Slowoldman - I agree, it seems pretty obvious why. However reality isn't a reason to stop certain people throwing the term 'libs' around as if it offends others more than the negatives it says about the user.
We cannot trust the us anymore, and putin is pretty clear in what he wants. She his armies haven't done well in ukraine, but I personally want a deterrent rather than see more countries drawn into conflict. Or if it happens I want the f###ers annihilated at the borders