The worrying aspect that I have is that the vaccine may prevent the more acute effects of the virus, but as they are showing lengthy risks after mild infections, I wonder how much the vaccines will protect against those.
am still getting the vaccine when it is available, but I fear people will then assume everything is safe and their behaviours will return to what they were when chances are there still could be issues.
I'm a bit disturbed by the tone of some of the posts here.
Not everybody who refuses to take a vaccine is an anti-vaxxer.
Some people who refuse to fly have been in, or have lost loved ones in an air crash. I can understand their choice and that doesn't make them flat-earthers (or whatever the correct metaphor is).
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The first people dead would be the people currently shielding, the chemotherapy patients and others with compromised immunity. But must be lovely wishing death on people.
There’s a very nasty undercurrent to this thread now.
...and one of those could well have been me. Right at the start of this crisis I was prescribed a very hefty dose of steroids and had I started to take them them I would have been in the highest risk category for shielding. Not quite chemotherapy but not far off. I have other family members who are in a similar position and I'm sure people on here know others that are in even worse situations. I'm now at a point where I'm considering starting the course of treatment so a vaccine can't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned.
Ironically, the best treatment we have for Covid is a 'very hefty dose of steroids' (Dexamethasone). Now, that's a part of the treatment for patients on ITU, not those with milder forms of the disease. Also steroids will probably increase the risk of catching it in the first place.
But yes that sounds frustrating. We're all hoping a vaccine is forthcoming and that it will actually work.
Measles is making a comeback due to this lockdown and a reduction in vaccination due to it
https://www.businessinsider.com/100-million-children-miss-measles-vaccines-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
There is a big difference is saying a "I refuse, take me to jail", and "I have a valid medical condition". I have not seen anyone casting doubt on the 2nd one so far, even though the US has shown the extent people will lie about not being able to wear a mask due to "medical conditions".
The reality is most people will make a bad judgement on risk, and see the immediate risk (any side effects of the vaccine) as a much bigger problem than the unknown risk (will I get the disease and die).
I find it interesting that in the US they will routinely vaccinate against chickenpox, where here we are happy for kids to get the disease and deal with the small complications that arise.
Not everybody who refuses to take a vaccine is an anti-vaxxer.
Exactly. I don't have anything again vaccines but I am more cynical about a vaccine that has such a political and massively financial aspect to it. When there is so much money at stake (i.e. company that produces first vaccine will be getting literally billions or orders) I doubt some of the motives and shortcuts that would be at play.
I would personally bear that in mind when I weigh up the risks of getting covid vs having vaccine vs likelihood of more severe covid symptoms/complications
There is a big difference is saying a “I refuse, take me to jail”, and “I have a valid medical condition”.
The point is that the people in the first category are deliberately and knowingly endangering the people in the second category. And I cannot see any way that you can think that is ok.
Completely agree. Get in front of a doctor with a valid medical reason, they can sign you off.
The big problem with this is in the US you can probably find a Dr who will do that for you no matter what.
On the cost, that is how our medical system is structured. Individual companies spend billions on research, to find the next drug, to make a profit from it. There are concerns around antibiotics as the profit margin is low on those, so there is not enough research into new ones as the bugs are developing resistance.
This concern about making Bill Gates richer is weird. I have not seen any proof that he stands to profit from the vaccine, but is putting up capital to produce it quickly. If anyone has any proof otherwise, I would be interested to see it.
His work in malaria and hiv vaccine development is also not for profit, but I suppose it is okay if it is someone else who gets the vaccine.
This concern about making Bill Gates richer is weird
Put it in the same category as flat earth, Lizard overlords etc. It’s stupid and people who believe it are contrarian morons.
Have warned my kids that I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine and am prepared to go to prison for exercising my personal choice
I can't see if you have answered this before but why have you made this decision?
I don’t have anything again vaccines but I am more cynical about a vaccine that has such a political and massively financial aspect to it
Valid point.
For me, this from molgrips is probably the best concise summary on the thread.
I’d be distinctly unsure of a brand new vaccine, and not happy about taking it – but I would
Perhaps slightly off-topic, but... with a vaccine potentially available in Early 2021, how do we think it will work?
Mass vaccination programme aiming to have everyone in the UK done in weeks.
Targeted vaccination aiming to protect anyone who has been shielding.
Or optimistically Covid all but eradicated in the UK by the end of the year so only needed for travel to high risk countries?
More likely public sector first
Can't see them only using it for people who are travelling.
the risk of it getting back in to the general population would be too high and would rely on people to keep tracking and testing.
Wouldn't surprise me if it was key workers first (teachers, docs, nurses, basically everyone who keeps the country going), then everyone else as stocks are available.
Hopefully those at risk will be early in the list too
I find it interesting that in the US they will routinely vaccinate against chickenpox, where here we are happy for kids to get the disease and deal with the small complications that arise.
Remember that the US system is for-profit. Doctors make money from the treatment, the company makes money from the treatment, the insurance company makes money from insuring you for the treatment - so people get over-treated. For example, if you are having a kid you only get what we call consultant-led care, where they put you in hospital for days and it's like an operation, and it costs you ten grand. And your insurance doesn't cover it cos it's not an illness.
I would personally bear that in mind when I weigh up the risks of getting covid vs having vaccine vs likelihood of more severe covid symptoms/complications
That sounds like you only care about wether or not you are ill. But vaccination is about other people, not just you. I never get flu and I don't think I've ever had it, but I might consider a vaccination now after learning about how it protects others.
Mass vaccination programme aiming to have everyone in the UK done in weeks.
Not feasible - even with manufacturing running at full pelt there'll be a few million doses available at first, presumably to go to the most at-risk individuals. It'll go in waves.
That sounds like you only care about wether or not you are ill.
Is that your way of calling me a tory. I would weight up taking a vaccine just as I would weigh up taking medication. I don't just take stuff blindly, I consider many aspects.
I find it interesting that in the US they will routinely vaccinate against chickenpox, where here we are happy for kids to get the disease and deal with the small complications that arise.
Like the flu vaccine, the chickenpox vaccine is not available on the NHS to everyone (you can pay of course). There isn't a significant health issue to kids that get it so its offered to health care workers and those who are in close contact with vulnerable people.
I dont care if large parts of the US or the Uk refuse a vaccine but it should reduce their access to schools, colleges, universities, restaurants, pubs, events, workplaces etc.
So people who are uneducated/ignorant will be denied access to education as a punishment....🤔
Ironically, the best treatment we have for Covid is a ‘very hefty dose of steroids’ (Dexamethasone). Now, that’s a part of the treatment for patients on ITU, not those with milder forms of the disease
The Recovery trial data definitively pointed to a benefit of moderate dose (only 6mg dexamethasone a day) and included mostly non-ICU patients, starting early in the course of disease. Some folk worried whether giving it too early might allow an increase in viral load and felt that bigger doses, started later on, might be better. Then again in some 'flu studies the bigger doses seemed to increase death rates while low/moderate ones at least avoided that, even if they didn't work.
There was no second steroid arm in the Recovery trial and I don't think one's coming up so we don't know what dose is best, what starting time is best or even whether all steroids work or just that one.
Fun fact on "chickenpox" vacine - it is in the UK schedule but given at age 70, to boost your immunity and protect from ... shingles. USA's oldies also need that vaccine more than ours, 'cos (another side of) herd immunity - our grandkids tend to expose us repeatedly to the virus when they have chickenpox and so UK grannies' immunity is a bit stronger
and on images like this:
you have to be careful (as the authors state). For example, when COVID first hit the UK there was strong advice NOT to use non-invasive ventilation methods and so people were trotted off to ICUs and intubated. Now a lot of pts are seen to do really quite well on things like CPAP which doesn't meet that paper's definition of mechanical ventilation (if they used ICNARC, and I'm pretty sure they did). CPAP also doesn't need an intensive care unit, so that might hold down total ICU admissions.
Outcomes - death rates as % on intensive care cases etc. When UK first started publishing death rates (and possibly even now), recovery rates were really low. Mostly that was driven by the recoveries not being reported as such, and anyway there were also a load of ongoing but mostly slowly recovering pts who couldn't be counted even though they were pretty unlikely to die in large numbers.
... and care has improved. Early on, everybody was giving everything to all their pts - a lot of chat about a French paper saying massive success with a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. The paper has since been recalled by the journal that published it and analysis of other cases has shown increased death rates (not that surprisingly if you know their potential side effects)
the virus is getting, and will continue to get, weaker (viruses don’t really want to kill you; they don’t propagate if they do. They just want to make you pass it on).
So by the time any vaccine is viable, it won’t be needed
Viruses aren't sentient, they don't want to do anything, they don't even want you to do anything. Whilst there would likely be an evolutionary dead end (pun intended!) for a virus which is so lethal that it kills you before its managed to infect anyone else, there's no real reason why a virus should find an evolutionary advantage by not killing those it infects. If its already infected others before it kills you, its still a very effective virus. If its already infected others before you even get symptoms its hard to stop the spread. So long as it infects more than one person before it kills you there is no reason that killing you would be bad for that genetic line.
The correlation between time and falling mortality does not equate to causation. There are many possible effects (like shielding being a good safeguard in the short term, better understanding of the disease and its early treatment, knowing who to put in ITU (its not without its own risks) etc), as well as better diagnosis/detection rates etc.
Its quite a leap that because over a period of 20 yrs HIV (an entirely different virus, triggering an entirely different immune response) seems to evolve from taking 10y to deveop into AIDs to 12.5y that all viruses become less harmful overtime, and by the time a covid vaccine is available it will be unnecessary. Similarly at a glance your Ebola reference says that the newer strain goes without symptoms and a lower immune response longer that the old one not that it was getting safer.
Frankly 4-5 out of 6 taking it would be a result. Anthony Fauci the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases reckons that even if a successful vaccine were developed it wouldn’t work in the USA because a third of the population would refuse it because they are anti-vaxers or think its Bill Gates’ mind control serum
Eh, 4 out of 6 is a third not taking it... so can't be a result and Fauci being right that it wont work.
I thought it was interesting that future Pres Kanye has the same views on vaccines as CG
They stop you passing through the gates of heaven, apparently
