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Another war crime to add to the growing list.
On Christmas Day, 2024, Russian AD shot an Azerbaijan Airlines plane down leading to around 70 dead and injured.
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan haven't really improved and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, didn't attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow in May.
There have been a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, raids on media companies, arrests of journalists, etc. last week following Russian police raids on citizens of Azerbaijan who are allegedly involved in organised crime and murder.
This culminated in the widely reported return of the bodies of two Azerbaijani men who were allegedly beaten to death by police in Yekaterinburg following their arrest. https://www.reuters.com/world/azerbaijani-men-arrested-by-russian-police-were-beaten-death-baku-says-2025-07-01/
It's becoming apparent that states that have a degree of autonomy are moving away from Russia, which complicates Russia's diplomatic efforts, and in Azerbaijan's case towards Turkiye and Europe which it supplies with oil.
Russia's war with Ukraine is continuing to weaken alliances elsewhere as states previously connected with Russia take advantage of Russia taking its eye off the ball
The US is running low on stocks of missiles to send to Ukraine.
It isn't clear why, but you can partly attribute it to the numbers of missiles suddenly needed in the middle-east for raids on Houthi military bases and more recently Iran.
The US military was asked to consider $50bn in cuts under the current administration in February and weapon stocks are taking a hit, which will compound the issue https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-halts-some-missile-shipments-ukraine-over-low-stockpiles-politico-reports-2025-07-01/
It's hoped by President Zelensky that the most recent pause in arms supplied to Ukraine by the US ^^ is under serious reconsideration by President Trump.
The removal of weapons already in Poland and alleged turning around of supply flights seems to be some sort of "bring back everything" miscommunication within the Pentagon because some of the weapons removed are on the verge of obsolescence with US forces
It's seems possible that the removal of weapons from Poland, bought and accounted for by Congress, will put the WH in breach of legislation as happened in Trump v1.0.
Hopefully President Zelensky's optimism isn't misplaced and the weapons are delivered
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"Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
It isn't clear if this statement includes BRICS nations, i.e. Russia, or just those aligned, e.g. Indonesia
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/leaders-growing-brics-group-gather-rio-summit-2025-07-06/
President Putin isn't attending in person because of an ICC arrest warrant that is enforceable in Brazil.
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OPEC+ is raising oil output limits by another 25% in August, which will continue to reduce Russian energy revenue. It's likely to be a counter to US tariffs that are due to be applied on 1st August while the two OPEC+ rises to date have already reduced the price of US oil.
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Allegedly Houthi militants have sunk a Greek bulk carrier ship in the Red Sea.
The Houthis were reportedly submissive in May, following US strikes including B2 bomber raids
"They said please don't bomb us any more and we're not going to attack your ships," Trump said of the Houthis during an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "And I will accept their word, and we are going to stop the bombing of the Houthis effective immediately." https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-will-stop-bombing-houthis-after-agreement-struck-2025-05-06/
This will have an adverse effect on AD weapons available to Ukraine and on declining oil prices ^^
To round off the US weapons pause saga, good news for Ukraine.
Germany is also looking to buy Patriot to enable transfers to Ukraine as well
"We're going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves," Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"They're getting hit very hard now," he added. "We're going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-us-will-send-more-weapons-ukraine-2025-07-08/
During May 2024 a purge of Russian senior defence officials began with five arrested within a month and Sergei Shoigu demoted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c900qz4wll4o
It continued at a lower level into 2025, but has hit the headlines again this month:
Konstantin Strukov of Yuzhnuralzoloto gold mining; subject to state asset seizure,
Viktor Strigunov a former Rosgvardiya (National Guard) director; arrest for corruption,
Andrey Badalov, VP of Transneft oil; fell from a window,
Roman Starovoit former Transport Minister; shot himself after losing his job. It's reported that the gun used was an official gift
Timba, thanks for keeping this thread ticking over. I follow events in Ukraine quite closely, but haven't posted much in here as there hasn't been much to say. Russia's summer ground offensive is largely banging its head on a brick wall and Ukrainian defence is as determined as ever. The air war seems to be the most significant thing atm. Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern. OTOH Ukraine has developed into a defence manufacturing and drone tech behemoth, with other countries flocking to them to buy kit. Their rapid innovation and manufacture upscaling is keeping them very much in the war.
Konstantin Strukov
Particularly interesting as he's one of Putin's oligarchs, and a significant donator. Tried to flee to Turkiye on his personal jet and was arrested on corruption charges
Anders Nielsen makes the interesting point that Trump's constant maddening on and off again assistance to Ukraine and sporadic talking tough on Putin is actually helpful to Russia.
If Trump had come into office and just said "That's it, Putin and I are besties, not one more bullet to Ukraine" then the rest of the West would have been forced to step up and whilst that would have been a horrible shock, by now the actions resulting from that scramble would have started to bare fruit.
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I wonder if the Trump indecisivness and not supplying munitions to Ukraine would actually put him in breach of the agreement that he forced Zelensky to sign. It would be a terrible shame if it did and that whole agreement could be torn up and negotiated again (on better terms for UKR)
Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern.
China stopped export of specific drone parts to everyone last year, but opened a facility that Russia uses in China https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Last week this story emerged,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China, an official briefed on the talks said, contradicting Beijing’s public position of neutrality in the conflict. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl
If true the US would be well-served by helping to end rather than prolong this war
EDIT, the other problem with sanctions is that with time they effectively loosen as oil prices change and sanction-busting develops. The US hasn't changed sanctions since the last Biden-era changes
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I don't tend to watch YT, but certain European countries are amongst the worst and have the most to lose. The further east you are the more the country seems to understand.
There's now a race to find the "best" way to invest the 1.5% of GDP set aside in the NATO 5% for national infrastructure. Italy's bridge to Sicily is the current winner for me https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-grand-plan-meet-nato-target-13-5b-bridge-sicily-donlad-trump-silvio-berlusconi-messina/
In a previous "up the defence spend to x% of GPD" I was tickled by Greece upping the pension contributions for the Armed Forces.
That ^ is quite imaginative, but if it helps with retention of trained personnel in the Greek forces, it seems perfectly reasonable.
The USA includes pensions in their defence spending, and NATO rules are set to allow for that:
"Retirement pensions made directly by the government to retired military and civilian employees of military departments and for active personnel is included in the NATO defence expenditure definition."
If you don't treat vets well, you don't get new signups.
If you can stand what is basically an hour-long Powerpoint presentation on the matter, Perun has a video about the NATO pledge.
The 3% increase is split equally between 1.5% for "core" military spending, and 1.5% for militarily useful stuff that isn't directly related to the military. Transport infrastructure is part of that, though unless there's a forecast for a significant need to move lots of NATO hardware between mainland Italy and Sicily then the Italian's bridge proposal might be seen as not following the spirit of the agreement.
Interestingly apparently the 1.5% increase on core military spending can be used on military aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine is a step away from withdrawing from the The Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention (aka several things including the Ottawa Convention) with just a vote to go. The paperwork is signed.
Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are also in the process of leaving while Lithuania and Finland are planning domestic production of anti-personnel landmines next year to supply themselves and Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-lithuania-set-produce-anti-personnel-mines-officials-say-2025-07-09/
Russia and the US never signed up while the UK remains committed to the Convention (as of April, at least)
This Government remain committed to the Ottawa treaty and to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Each treaty plays an important role in the protection of civilians, and we continue to use our best efforts to promote the treaties and their norms. (Landmines and Cluster Munitions. Lords Chamber Volume 845: debated on Thursday 3 April 2025)
It looks like a huge incease in air strikes by a Russia are they trying to force an end game (for talks?)
To me it looks like the (almost) stalemate on the frontlines is not going down well in Moscow? Frustration? Desperation?
So they bomb and maime the ordinary people.
Looks as a few top people have been died in suspicious circumstances again in Moscow as well. Two of them reportably shortly after being sacked !
Its mid summer already.
Can the west shut the "grey" market down for the tech being sold and shame countries still trading with Russia?
Moscovites and Peterburgians are totally anesthesised from Ukraine - unless they get called up.
but his 'threat' for Putin is sanctions (100% tariffs) if theres no deal in 50 days!
hes placed much stiffer conditions on trade talks with countries America is supposedly allied with!
Japan is now sending spy satellite info directly to Ukraine.
Still not sending weapons but it's a big step for Japan, and reduces Ukraine's reliance on US satellites if Trump has another hissy fit
but his 'threat' for Putin is sanctions (100% tariffs) if theres no deal in 50 days!
hes placed much stiffer conditions on trade talks with countries America is supposedly allied with!
True, can't disagree with that. I was more focused on the provision of the Patriot batteries though. I'm under no illusions that Trump has lost his man crush on Putin or suddenly become a staunch and reliable ally to Ukraine. More air defence capability in the current daily drone and ballistic missile onslaught is still welcome though. Even if provided reluctantly by the orange shit gibbon.
They won’t be shooting down shaheed drones with Patriot missiles. These will be used to take out cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
I'm aware of that, perhaps I should just have said "aerial bombardment"? 😊
Duplicate post
A bit of news, contrary to US claims that Europe doesn't pull its financial weight.
Europe largely fills the weapons financial gap, led by the Nordic countries and UK https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-europe-largely-fills-the-us-aid-withdrawal-lead-byn-the-nordics-and-the-uk/
This isn't the same as specific systems and volumes that only the US can fill
Maybe a slight deviation but I found it interesting.
I was watching one of those 'reaction' videos on YouTube, it was an American watching one about the training provided by the British Army to Ukrainian recruits. He was totally unaware of this, like it never gets a mention in the American media.
Here we are aware of what we are doing but also that America is (was?) giving weapons, the Dutch and Swedes training pilots, Canada's help in training soldiers, the weapons Germany and France are giving, the fact that the Baltics are smaller donors but compared to the size of the their economies some of the biggest proportionally, that Japan is now providing satellite intel and that Poland is really gearing up to face anything. And probably a lot more.
How much of Trump's 'it's all America, were doing everything' bollocks is believed by the US populous because of their media being so focused on what the US are doing, to the extent that that an apparently well educated American with an interest in the outside world was unaware of other contributions? I could understand Fox glossing over it but the rest of them?
Anyway, I just found it odd that he knew nothing about this
The subject of Azerbaijan seems to be hitting a raw nerve and keeps popping up
The Kremlin dismissed First Deputy Director-General of the Kremlin newswire TASS, Mikhail Gusman, likely in a continued effort to increase control over domestic media sources affecting Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin relieved Gusman on July 24 without any further explanation. Reuters reported on July 25 that Gusman recently praised Azerbaijan for maintaining relations with different countries at an event hosted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Russian authorities recently raided the offices of Baza, a Russian outlet reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement, and have been cracking down on media outlets that present stories that challenge the Kremlin's ideal narratives of the war in Ukraine.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2025
The subject of Azerbaijan has been loosely connected with the invasion of Ukraine since Russia failed to honour their Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) obligations to protect Armenia (CSTO member) from Azerbaijan (non-member) during their September 2022 conflict.
CSTO is a NATO analogue and Armenia froze its membership, refused to pay, started military exercises with the US and talked about EU membership.
Since then the Zangezur corridor has again emerged as a hot topic (it's been simmering for years), connecting Nakhichevan, a land-locked enclave, to Azerbaijan through Armenia. Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan if you like and the route is supported by Turkiye, but opposed by Armenia and Iran.
Russia offered to police the route which would give them influence in the region, which was part of the 19C Russian Empire and, later, Soviet territory. Their recent CSTO history of managing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan evidences the problem with this proposal. The Christmas shooting down of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft isn't helping international relations either
The US has recently offered to manage the route, effectively cutting Iran's access and trade with the S. Caucasus via Armenia. It would also reduce Iran's standing with China who would also like regional access, while strengthening the presence of the US and Turkiye on Iran's northern border. It wouldn't be well-received in Russia either
No decisions have been made and Azerbaijan is quite happy to partner with Turkiye, connecting the Turkic world without third-party intervention; Armenia and Iran are much less happy
Ukraine getting battered every night at the mo, and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
Show your working?
Ukraine getting battered every night at the mo, and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
You said more or less the same on the 19th of last month.
What have you contributed?
Yep, started my day with Paul Warburg and listening to Ukrainecast next.
Always appreciate the updates on here from those more knowledgeable than me.
Yep, started my day with Paul Warburg and listening to Ukrainecast next.
Similar. Those and others. I hoover up any news from Ukraine I can find, every single day. I post infrequently on here as I seldom have anything of value to add. It certainly doesn't mean I don't give a flying ****!!
Ditto
I'm a regular visitor to this page, rarely post, reasonably up to date with YouTube interpretations of the situation in Ukraine. I doubt I'd be able to post something that I thought was unique so I don't bother.
I look forward to the day the conflict ends.
I do accept that Ukraine has dropped off the general public's agenda but not those on this thread.
I talk to people all day for a living and unless I mention it, it rarely comes up.
I regularly check this thread for updates and for the last month or so I have started listening to Times Radio via their Ap. Their Frontline show repeats during the week at 4.30 am and is also available via their YouTube channel or via podcast at https://shows.acast.com/frontline
These are very much up to date and have some high ranking guests with very good insight. Well worth checking out for anyone interested.
They also have a show called the 'Trump Report' which repeats in the 30 minutes prior to FL, but I guess that is for another thread.......
I certainly haven’t forgotten about Ukraine and I wish there more I could contribute. Sadly, I’m a fat old man with little money and even less combat experience so there’s not much I can actually do.
Azerbaijan again
WASHINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan the possibility of bringing that nation and some Central Asian allies into the Abraham Accords, hoping to deepen their existing ties with Israel, according to five sources with knowledge of the matter.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-eyes-bringing-azerbaijan-central-asian-nations-into-abraham-accords-2025-08-01/
Exclusive: US sanctions force vessels with Russian oil to divert from India, sources say.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctions-force-vessels-with-russian-oil-divert-india-sources-say-2025-08-01/
This is in response to US sanctions on Iran and its fleet that carry Russian oil, rather than President Trump's threatened 100% tariff.
I have to say that I'm sceptical about the tariff threat. China takes huge quantities of cheap Russian oil and Trump has only just come to an arrangement over tariffs with them; I can't imagine him kicking that particular hornets' nest again
A Ukrainian soldier appears to have been rescued by the delivery of an e-bike by drone after becoming surrounded on the front line.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/l0057c2r
He apparently survived setting a landmine off while on the bike; what tyres for...
Schwalbe Marathon Plus presumably