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A terrible loss of life, which is unofficially attributed to military action
Certainly lots of photos and video online, much of which could be anything from any aircraft, however...
FlightRadar 24 has published a blog, which indicates navigation problems due to heavy GPS jamming with a variable altitude and ground speed, which might indicate a loss of control due to hydraulic failure, rather than the official weather avoidance/birdstrike reasons https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/azerbaijan-airlines-e190-crashes-near-aktau/
The Telegraph has gone for it...
The plane was attempting to land at a Russian airport in Grozny, which at the time of landing was under attack by Ukrainian drones.
Baza, a Telegram channel with links to the Russian security services, said “the holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion with striking elements”.
Rybar, an influential Telegram channel with 1.3 million subscribers, also confirmed Baza’s description, saying the damage to the fuselage resembles “striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile”.
He continued: “The plane itself was heading to Grozny - at that time, a raid by launched Ukrainian UAVs was actually being repelled over the region. Several drones were shot down over Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia and neighboring Ingushetia.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/25/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-speculation-plane-accident/
It seems to be a fact that there was an attack by Ukraine's drones en route to the aircraft's destination airport, hence the GPS jamming and air defence action
“Russia cannot generate soldiers to cover such losses for that much longer. It will have to either lower the loss rate or its army will shrink. The same goes for much of their equipment. The Russian war economy actually has some major problems, and is struggling keeping up.”
How many times have we read this? How many more times will it be trotted out?
Meanwhile ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey
And they just let aircraft fly through that? FFS...
RUMOR from Bluesky - the aircraft was hit over a 120 miles from any drone, and had spent a fair old while in the sky while they battled for control due to the damage, only to have the GPS jammed and miss runway....
ok tell,me why Russia is now using civilian vehicles to lead lead their assaults, instead of BMPs etc?
I'm sure they are short of all sorts of things. But that doesn't mean they are close to being defeated.
I’m sure they are short of all sorts of things. But that doesn’t mean they are close to being defeated.
I sort of agree. Ukraine is unlikely to defeat Russia militarily on the battlefield. But, although there has been lots of crying wolf, the Russian economy is in a far more perilous state than at any point in recent history. Rampant inflation/stagflation, food poverty etc are likely to really hit home in 2025. I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin's war. I hope so, and I desperately hope that Ukraine can hold the line and force as high a cost as possible from Russia until then.
Rampant inflation/stagflation, food poverty etc are likely to really hit home in 2025. I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin’s war.
This does seem to be a possibility.
I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin’s war
About my best guess as well. (In a scenario where Putin loses his war). He can obviously still win setting up future wars in eastern Europe.
I hope so, and I desperately hope that Ukraine can hold the line and force as high a cost as possible from Russia until then.
I hope so too, but I've been hearing ever since the initial failed invasion that the Russians will lose Real Soon Now. Rather than repeating the mantra, I'd prefer if some "experts" had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong. Everyone might learn something.
I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong.
I don't think there are any experts on here. It's a virtual pub chat. Some may bring some insight in niche areas, but no one is claiming their input is anything more than their own two'penneth ime.
I don’t think there are any experts on here
I'm aware of that. I was referring to the authors of tweets such as the one I quoted.
I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong. Everyone might learn something.
im not sure anyone, experts included thought that North Korea would send 10s of 1000s of troops to help out Russia!
I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong.
I doubt that the experts could foresee that N.Korea would provide 60% of artillery shells and mortar bombs to the (formerly?) second largest arms supplier in the world.
NK is accelerating its own production in 200 factories using Russian oil, etc, while European manufacturers are held back by political indecision.
Iran and NK are also providing UAVs and other missiles.
Nobody in the west knows if 11000 NK troops will be the last, or whether NK will send more.
Russia peaked at an estimated 2000+ troops killed per day in November and a total more than 4x Ukraine's total killed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3o Nobody in the west would consider that acceptable, so how could any of this be predicted from an aggressor who could just turn around and walk away?
Nobody in the west would consider that acceptable, so how could any of this be predicted from an aggressor who could just turn around and walk away?
Dunno. And yet the “experts” still make predictions.
Anyone else find it irksome that the media are talking about Ukraine drone attacks in Russia in regards to excuses for the Russians allegedly shooting down the Azeri passenger jet?
Using North Korean troops avoids the draft in Moscow and St. Petersburg which would really unsettle the elites. I'd like to see whatever visa Vladimir Solovyov's sons have to stay in London revoked.
I know it’s not Ukraine, but an interesting interview with the Georgian President, who face prison on Sunday if she doesn’t stand down to the unconstitutional new “president” brought in by the new parliament of the rigged election. She shows composure under such pressure!
I forgot to put the link to the interview lol
https://www.youtube.com/live/lUASY40JDuw?si=hAEJ3MKFSFtVLIEh
A useful update from Phillips P O'Brien. I'll make a small addition that President Putin has also exchanged thoughts with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, where the Azeri airliner crashed.
The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments , NKorean troop update and some Syria stuff that I'll also put in that thread https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-113-this-war-is-truly
China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?
China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US
Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?
China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?
Yes. The bottom line is that Ukraine (and the US) still have options, including manufacture, but they will all cost more and take time
Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?
This has been rumbling for years, in 2017 the US ordered its military to stop using DJI drones, software, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40860806
18 months ago China banned the export of heavier drones to both Ukraine and Russia.
A year later,
"Starting Sept. 1, China will prohibit the export of numerous radio and drone components through standard parcels delivered by air and sea.
The ban includes components used to build drones, such as motors and cameras for quadcopters, as well as radio systems, portable walkie-talkies and hunting knives." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38142
I'm not sure of the significance of "standard parcels". Other media reports of the same story talk simply about banning all exports of civilian drones that could be put to either terrorist or military use because China was getting unwarranted criticism
More recently, some US companies have had Chinese component orders refused because they're supplying drones to Taiwan and so it goes on...
Insightful into Russian people's thinking from Steve Rosenberg again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/ce327we7w7zo
The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments
A further consequence floated by “experts” is the possibility that this will lead to routine interception of shadow fleet tankers with impact on Russia’s efforts to avoid sanctions on its oil exports. If tanker owners face real risk of losing their ship they may be less likely to risk playing ball with Putin. Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.
Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.
The thing about the Baltic is that at certain points it narrows massively leaving only a very narrow sea lane between the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia.
Prior to Russia's actions encouraging Finland to join NATO, Russian shipping had more room for manoeuvre under international treaty. NATO members now legally control almost the entire width and can deal with ships more easily.
I'm no maritime expert, but my understanding is that it makes tankers like Eagle S much easier to deal with. That little adventure has so far cost a tanker (currently impounded near to Helsinki with its own exclusion zone), its load of unleaded and a pile of surveillance gear (not to mention the missing anchor)
NATO now controls the entire airspace, apart from a short, restricted corridor to Kaliningrad and back (no onward travel), so the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia on several fronts
...Russian choppers tried to intercept the UAV, but with R-73 „Sea Dragons“ missiles one chopper was shot down and another one damaged.
There was a grainy image of a similarly equipped UAV on a video a few weeks ago, which I was convinced was a wind-up by Ukraine; an air-to-air missile on the sea, power source, lock-on indicator and other challenges. Clearly it wasn't!
5am today was the last time for Ukraine to allow the transit of Russian gas to Europe. PM Fico of Slovakia and PM Orban of Hungary will be digging deeper to pay their bills.
Moldova and Austria will be paying more too, but Moldova and Transnistria won't be under Russian energy blackmail influence
Ukraine did offer to continue transit if Russia agreed to payments being held until peace has been officially declared, but Russia didn't renew the agreement https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-halts-gas-exports-europe-via-ukraine-2025-01-01/
Seems that Transnistria has turned off gas to residential properties.
You choose your side time....
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html
I don't have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They've had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.
I don’t have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They’ve had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.
Arguably a big error by Russia to use energy blackmail so early following the invasion on 24th Feb 2022. They cut Nordstream supplies by 75% in June 2022 and shut it completely for 10 days in July.
What else would you do but top storage up for winter and hunt for new suppliers?
Moldova had the unique problem of being reliant on its Russian-leaning Transnistria breakaway because Russia supplied all of its gas there and not to the Moldovan state. Transnistria also generates electricity for the whole country and being possibly the poorest country in Europe, but not an EU member, Moldova didn't have too many options.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and Europe has financed Moldova's energy infrastructure. Moldova (and Ukraine) has been moving its electricity grid to the Continental European system and away from the Russian-Belorussian synchronous system since 2017. In 2022, following invasion, this became urgent and they managed the final changes within three weeks.
Moldova now has electricity supply connections to Romania and Ukraine, with a third 400kV line to Romania in the planning stages.
1st Jan 2025: "According to Zelensky, most European countries "have adapted" to the termination of Russian gas transit. Zelensky added that the allies' common task now is to support Moldova, dependent on Russian supplies, in its energy transformation." https://kyivindependent.com/one-of-moscows-biggest-defeats-zelensky-on-stopping-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine/
Slovakia and Hungary are a different case and are anti-Ukraine, e.g. PM Fico of Slovakia threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine ( https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-threatens-to-cut-electricity-supplies-if-ukraine-ends-russian-gas-transit/ ) while PM Orban believes that Ukraine should return Zakarpattia aka Trans-Carpathia to Hungary
Austria is different again and constitutionally neutral following WW2. You can interpret that in many ways, but business is business...
Yeah, I was excluding the poor Moldovans in my brief summary. The Russian agitating bastards have really done a number on them and but for the fact they don't have a direct border to be invaded over I suspect they would have been back as part of Russia some time ago.
NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!
A little more detail on Transnistria's problems. "Jan 2 (Reuters) - The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova's breakaway Transdniestria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers, an official said on Thursday."
It seems that Russia has abandoned the idea of supplying gas to its enclave, although it had the option (see Matt's link^^)
The local parliament last month sent an appeal to the Kremlin and the Russian parliament to reach a new agreement with Ukraine to enable gas supplies to continue. Moscow said at the time it would protect its citizens and soldiers in Transnistria.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html/blockquote >
Moldova has successfully trialled supplies coming from RomaniaThe head of Moldovan national gas company Moldovagaz, Vadim Ceban, said his company had told the gas distribution company in the separatist enclave, Tiraspoltransgaz, that it was willing to help purchase gas from European countries to ease shortages.
But any gas supplied to the region would have to be paid for at market prices, he told TV8 television. Transdniestria has for several years paid nothing for supplies from Russian gas giant Gazprom under a tacit understanding with Moscow. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/breakaway-moldovan-regions-power-plant-switches-coal-after-gas-cutoff-2025-01-02/
Finland's courts have backed the decision to seize Eagle S suspected of damaging undersea cables ^^ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-court-rejects-owners-request-release-oil-tanker-2025-01-03/
The (different) owners of the ship and its 35,000 tonnes of unleaded will be appealing to the courts again next week.
NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!
There's a treaty in place to allow navigation but only a comparatively narrow channel that isn't territorial waters. The Baltic relies on treaty because it isn't big enough for "international waters", which is where the legal problems really begin.
Yi Peng III was intercepted in the Baltic by German and Danish naval vessels before Christmas but wouldn't sail into Swedish waters as requested, which led to a Chinese investigation and their co-operation with authorities.
"Swedish, German and Finnish authorities were invited to board the Yi Peng 3 along with a Danish representative as part of a Chinese-led investigation. But the Swedish prosecutor, which is leading a European investigation, was not permitted to board the vessel."
“The shipowner company, after a comprehensive evaluation and consultation with relevant parties, decided to resume operations,” Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokesperson told AFP" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/23/china-refused-investigation-into-ship-linked-to-severed-baltic-cables-says-sweden
Something similar happened with the New New Polar Bear in October 2023, although it wasn't intercepted. It was spotted in a Russian port missing an anchor and a Chinese investigation later said that it was responsible for accidental damage to undersea infrastructure https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-ships-anchor-caused-damage-to-baltic-gas-pipeline-finland-suggests-12992004
Any thoughts on the new Kursk offensive?
Just keeping Vlad on his toes (he's Immediately sent one of his most trusted generals)?
A serious offensive designed to push Russian forces back and divert significant resource from the Donbass?
Quick landgrab to strengthen the negotiating position ahead of the return of the Orange manchild?
All of the above?
Answers on a postcard
NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!
So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.
Morning catch-ups....
NATO now controls the entire airspace, apart from a short, restricted corridor to Kaliningrad and back (no onward travel), so the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia on several fronts
I think we have mentioned the GPS issues around Kaliningrad earlier in this thread. How do military aircraft cope with russia switching it off and electronic jamming... I think there have been links posted on here about disruption to commercial air traffic.
Edit: just found this https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/gps-jamming-map/
Answers on a postcard
Any of the above
Early days yet. Russia has slackened the pace of its attacks so keeping the pressure on them?
Keep everyone guessing?
Take media attention away from the Russian media machine in an important next few weeks? (France, Germany, US, all set for political change)
Who knows?
How do military aircraft cope with russia switching it off and electronic jamming
Military specifically, I dunno
Commercial aircraft fall back onto inertial navigation (INS) and dead reckoning navigation with an old-fashioned compass, time, maps and a calculator (INS without the electronics)
Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range Stations (VOR) are used but there may be transmission/reception problems. Air traffic controllers may also be subject to transmission/reception problems.
There are solutions being developed all the time, e.g. https://www.militaryaerospace.com/communications/article/55240119/aerodata-earns-easa-stc-for-its-gps-anti-jamming-and-spoofing-solution and AI solutions, e.g. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a62085402/magnetic-navigation-aircraft/
Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range Stations (VOR) are used but there may be transmission/reception problems. Air traffic controllers may also be subject to transmission/reception problems.
Not least amongst issues, they are all gradually being turned off so the bandwidth can be sold off…
worst case scenario they will have to fall back on VHF direction finding, if the controller can find the box and remember how to use it!
So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.
The whole point of Russia invading Ukraine is to force the west into accepting Russia as a dominate world power like it was back in the day -USSR stylee. He absolutely wants you to think that he'll use nuclear weapons as part of that tactic (he has after all; threatened it enough times - supply Ukraine with guns, I'll use nukes, give them tanks, I'll use nukes, give them F16's I use nukes...and so on and on) . The paradox of course is that if he wants there to be multi-centred power in the future - then that pretty much excludes the use of these weapons by default.