Russia is fighting for “survival” do you think they will give up?
If Russia loses this war there will be “no more” Russia and perhaps their alliance, they all know that.
Putin is a fascist. The core of fascism is that the nation and leader are seen as the same. The nation is seen as a family, the leader as the father. Any threat to the leader is portrayed as an existential threat to the nation. Losing the war is an existential threat to the Putin regime. In Putin's mind, and the minds of his followers, a threat to his regime is an existential threat to the survival of Russia. Putin won't admit defeat and sign a peace treaty because that would be the end of the Putin regime. This is why notions of an "off ramp" for Putin shouldn't be taken seriously - to him, a peace treaty with Ukraine would be an admission of defeat, which would be an existential threat to his regime.
However, in real life, Russia will still be there long after Putin is dead and buried.
Oh look the trolls back🤷♂️ please don’t feed it! 🤷♂️🤷♂️
What will the end look like?
I don't know, but I've waited 10 months for this claim of yours to come true. I'm convinced that I can still buy them locally for half that, unless I go to a restaurant
I foresee Fish & Chips (my favourite) will cost £15 or even £20 in some places. All due to shortages couple with other increases etc. Not good. (p164 of this thread)
Apologies for a tangential reply...
Ha, never make predictions! It's quite interesting to re-read the first few pages of this thread for some spectacularly bad takes. My favourite was a suggestion (not from our fish price predictor) that we would be better off siding with the Russians in the conflict not the evil US, because they are in Europe!
LOL, I definitely have plenty of bad takes and even more posts I should have checked out the sources better.
Although
I reckon all the former Warsaw pact counties might feel a little uneasy, pity they don’t club together and tell the Russian bully to do one.
Isn’t that far off what’s happened, notable exceptions aside.
I reckon all the former Warsaw pact counties might feel a little uneasy, pity they don’t club together and tell the Russian bully to do one.
Isn’t that far off what’s happened, notable exceptions aside.
Pretty much. All the countries that Russia views as its "sphere of influence" hate Russia and want to see it defeated militarily.
but they all have vociferous pro-russian/expat minority to deal with... especially estonia latvia and lithuania,
but they all have vociferous pro-russian/expat minority to deal with… especially estonia latvia and lithuania,
I'm genuinely curious about whether the pro-Russian groups in former Soviet states have faded since the invasion. Having seen what has happened in eastern Ukraine, with the population issued Russian passports but then denied entry into Russia when they tried to flee there to escape the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it's possible that a fair number might have changed their views. Would be interesting to see some actual survey data though, people aren't always as rational as we assume.
Not just former Soviet satellites. I'm always surprised by the pro Putin, pro war support demonstrated by expat Russians in places with a sizable Russian diaspora like Germany and even in places like Australia. People with access to unfiltered news about the war. It does sometimes seem that even ordinary Russians living in the West have an ingrained sense of entitlement to invade, conquer and subjugate and an acceptance that strong man autocracy is a desirable form of governance. If anything, it may be that those in countries neighbouring Russia have a far less rosey view of Putinism than expat Russians enjoying Western freedoms further away.
A skeptical view on the rumours that Russia is preparing for a huge offensive.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1624720041986908161
We just need to go in all guns blazing now. A few tanks aint gonna do it. Send everything we have. We’re committed anyway so may as well engineer the destruction of putin.
may as well engineer the destruction of putin.
He's doing a great job of that all by himself. Perhaps we could do a little more in terms of kit - ATACMs maybe? But if by 'all guns blazing' you mean direct Western involvement with boots on the ground, that would be a huge mistake and is very unlikely to happen.
With steadfast support, Ukraine will win this.
may as well engineer the destruction of putin.
He's engineered his own destruction. Ukraine's war aims are to repel Russian forces back to Russia's borders. They have no intention of invading Russia, that would be incredibly stupid to even try and NATO are pretty clear that they don't support that. Putin's political survival rests on suppressing dissent within Russia, not what Ukraine does. He bet the farm on the invasion of Ukraine to show that he is the leader of a superpower, now he looks impotent because he can't win a war that he thought would be a three-day victory parade. He's brought this on himself.
The bigger and more important question is Crimea. It was part of Ukraine before being invaded. Would Ukraine want it back? I think if they can push the ra back to the borders, then they should have a crack at Crimea
That would be a total insult to Putin and speed his demise.
Then enforce a demz , tough with a few thousand miles of border unlike Korea. Would take years and lots of money to clear land strips, errect guard towers , minefields but if you want to sleep at night...
Or just join NATO 🤷♂️
Or just join NATO 🤷♂️
Crazy isn't it. Before the war there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted as a full member of NATO anytime soon. Now I reckon it's a foregone conclusion once the war is over. Probably pretty quickly too. Same applies to Finland and Sweden - little desire to join before the war, but process to join now started. Vladimir Putin is personally responsible for the biggest expansion in NATO membership since its formation. It's a funny old world!
It does sometimes seem that even ordinary Russians living in the West have an ingrained sense of entitlement to invade, conquer and subjugate and an acceptance that strong man autocracy is a desirable form of governance.
You've met my old finance director then. A Russian who thought that everyone was best dealt with by her either shouting at them, berating them repeatedly for weeks or asking for them to be sacked....All the while fighting for for more pay, more authority and more staff to manage and going direct to the board when the answer was 'no'...
What im saying is to break the trench warfare deadlock and overcome any well held positions the russians have, you need aircraft, artillery, tanks. Basically blitzkreig through. We cant give them half arsed support of a few old tanks here and there. It needs to be 4 or 5x what has been promised sofar, maybe even a naval fleet.
Its a golden opportunity to get rid of putin and maybe have someone more reasonable in power.
6000 soldiers killed in a week is mad evern by Putin's standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099
And these aren't the disposable convicts of Wagner, I'm sure plenty were dirt poor conscripts, but reports th<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">tA at least some of them were 'elite' VDV paratroopers </span>
The bigger and more important question is Crimea. It was part of Ukraine before being invaded. Would Ukraine want it back?
They do want Ukraine back and that would be a huge issue for Russia as they want to retain their Sevastopol base.
Its a golden opportunity to get rid of putin and maybe have someone more reasonable in power.
Russian politics is full of unreasonable people. Reasonable ones not so much.
They do want Ukraine back and that would be a huge issue for Russia as they want to retain their Sevastopol base.
Prior to Russia annexing Crimea, Ukraine were quite happy to lease Sevastopol to them.
at least some of them were ‘elite’ VDV paratroopers
Think I remember reading somewhere a while ago that the 'elite' paras where basically a hollowed out unit now with, shall we say, less than elite replacements for the numbers killed and wounded. They're all just cannon fodder now.
I still don’t know if this VDV thing is real or fake…. It can’t be real…surely
^^ When you are at the tip of the spear all you care about is moving along the zig zag waiting lanes at the Post Office at a decent pace.
“I still don’t know if this VDV thing is real or fake…”
Fake- the bloke in charge is Russ Abbott!
That vid needs to have the music from “In the Navy” overlaid.
”In the VDV,
We’ll underestimate the enemy
In the VDV
We’ll run away and flee…”
Anyone seen those Moldovan military training videos? They are the strangest thing ever.
Like synchronised swimming but on land and with guns.😁
Prior to Russia annexing Crimea, Ukraine were quite happy to lease Sevastopol to them.
Indeed they were, but following the annexation of Crimea Putin scrapped the agreement as no longer necessary. So if Ukraine retakes Crimea there is no agreement in place re. Sevastopol.
Ryan McBeth's take on those videos
You know, I just assumed that training with MILES like kit was pretty much default across most well militaries of any size.
Indeed they were, but following the annexation of Crimea Putin scrapped the agreement as no longer necessary. So if Ukraine retakes Crimea there is no agreement in place re. Sevastopol.
All Ukraine needs to do is retake Crimea, but leave Sevastopol to Russia. Then ring it with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries and see if Russia is still keen on using it as a navy base.
Christ, this is grim.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1621095382771175426
Anyone seen those Moldovan military training videos? They are the strangest thing ever.
You mean Belarusian military?
Yes. Odd.
Christ, this is grim.
Indeed. Wagner have also just released another video of a sledgehammer execution of one of their own. They are no better than ISIS. Absolute scum.
Christ, this is grim.
🙁
I fear we’ll be directly involved in a few months - all I’m reading online now is small gains made by Russia (at massive cost). A dribble of tanks and arms just isn’t going to cut it soon.
Really ?
Half a dozen MBT's against what is effectively becoming a rabble army , backed with determined and now trained, well equipped UKR infantry . Why do you think little to no impact ?
Yes they will lose a few but will learn from their losses and devise better tactics.
Nato will not put boots on the ground , simple as that . Its a massive escalation from providing hardware and training.
And there are lots of foreign nationals already involved ,Canadians mostly but alot of Europeans too who form foreign legions under direct command of an English speaking UKr commander but not under a foreign flag
Russia just throwing bodies into the mix and fast running out of those ,plus missiles , shells , tanks and Barrels for their artillery aparently.
So a few western Gen2 MBT used wisely , with the Bradleys will have an impact. In a month or so when it dries up and you can cover ground fast .
I dont think the RA has the ManPort weaponry , plus drone operators / spotters to be able to nullify the MBT in the same way as UKAF have done . Hell , they had 16yr olds flying their drones initialy and the RA tanks were very vulnerable to the Javelin pop up rockets we donated
Ukraine have spent a year fortifying their positions, replenishing their armouries and equipment and training their soldiers, any Russian push now has to do more than anything they've previously managed, and they'll have to show a hell of a lot more ability in terms of logistics, do they have the equipment, the trained personnel and the support solutions, they've not shown anything, but you'd be daft to underestimate Russia, or their ability for madness!
News from the front…
The rate of attrition is mind-buggering!
but you’d be daft to underestimate Russia, or their ability for madness!
There maybe be method to the madness
Ukraine is using Western ammo faster than the west makes it
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1625117128297787392?t=jdE4RC54uST9h1kjlkGZ5Q&s=19
Maybe Russia's plan is just to use up cannon fodder until there's no bullets/ shells left!
Don't see how that's a winning tactic myself but wars seem to make little sense
A good read via translate of how Ukrainians forced the Russian "act of goodwill" to withdraw from Snake Island
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2023/02/13/7388834/
There is a bit of propaganda in there especially about the dependency of grain shipments on the event, but still shows remarkable ingenuity.
There maybe be method to the madness
Ukraine is using Western ammo faster than the west makes it
Don't think having enough war stock to support Ukraine will be an issue, the reality is that ammunition has a shelf life, so you only commit to procuring enough to replace the ageing and usage, now NATO suddenly requires more they up the production rates to support whatever the requirement is.
It's just crazy that this is still going the way it is almost a year after it restarted, there is no let up, the madness just seems to get more ingrained with the Russians!
Incredible bravery
BBC News - Ukraine war: The Russian student under arrest for an Instagram story
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64625127
A good read via translate of how Ukrainians forced the Russian “act of goodwill” to withdraw from Snake Island
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2023/02/13/7388834/
/blockquote>Click the top right to switch to their own English version.
