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My first reaction when something when is broken is to y'know... try and fix it?!
But you didn't say anything at all about welfare being "broken".
These are your exact words :
"this country has been in structural decline since some time in the late 19th century. That decline has been compounded by plenty of mistakes on all sides over the course of the last 100 years. But ultimately, our present predicament comes down to one thing, and that is welfare"
Which very clearly suggests that the big "mistake" of the last 100 years has been welfare.
So now that you appear to be backtracking and suggesting it could in fact be fixed, despite apparently being a problem for the last 100 years, how exactly do you propose to do that?
And I will remind you again that UK spending on welfare is exactly the same as the average for the 38 advanced economies in the OECD.
Some of us do like to try and inhabit the real world.
Quite.
A man crosses the border on a small boat run by organised crime groups that the British and French governments allow to operate.
That is quite a bold statement, in fact it is the sort of conspiracy theory which you might associate with the far-right. Have you got any evidence that the British and French governments allow organised crime groups to operate?
Is it part of the "Great Replacement Theory" ?
A “normal person” should keep it all in context, and remember that most sex offenders look just like them, grew up near them, speak just like them.
Well, quite. And yet the state can't even deal with the high profile sex offenders that are convicted, imprisoned and supposed to be deported. So what ****ing hope is there for the state to effectively manage sex attackers that haven't yet been convicted, aren't in custody, and can't just be put on a plane to Ethiopia so the UK can wash its hands of the problem?
I probably should have added "yeah but there's loads of non-immigrant sex offenders" and "the context is that these ****ups happen all the time" to the list of unconvincing responses to the Kebatu affair.
He was only a "high profile sex offender" because the far-right decided to go on the rampage over his crime. The crime itself wasn't considered particularly serious by the courts which is why he only received 12 months that he wasn't even expected to fully serve in custody anyway.
I am not convinced that the state should attach particular importance to an individual criminal just because the far-right and criminal elements do.
Even if they hanker for those halcyon days when paedophiles and sex offenders were all white Anglo-Saxons like Jimmy Savile.
I probably should have added "yeah but there's loads of non-immigrant sex offenders" and "the context is that these ****ups happen all the time" to the list of unconvincing responses to the Kebatu affair.
Unconvincing... but true. The prison and probation services have been wrecked in recent decades, and mistakes happen all the time. A white sex offender getting a few days on the loose by mistake isn't news though, is it. That this one offender has been in the news every day recently is because he was from abroad... and the media giving the case and its handling so much attention just adds into the feedback loop of hate. Focus in on a rare case from a group... make that group the "problem".
Unconvincing... but true. The prison and probation services have been wrecked in recent decades, and mistakes happen all the time.
And a normal person who sees that and thinks it's an unacceptable state of affairs - even if their attention was drawn to it through a cause celebre with dubious proponents - is not a right wingers (necessarily).
That isn't the "story" though, is it... it's "the women in your life need protecting from asylum seekers... deport them all... and we can't trust this government to deport anyone"... there is zero attention on the state of the UK's prison and probation services by the "normal person"... and definitely no focus on how those services got that way.
Deporting all the foreign criminals would free up some prison space for our home grown nonces. It’s a win win scenario.
Deporting all the foreign criminals would free up some prison space for our home grown nonces. It’s a win win scenario.
Some of them require a 30 room mansion, rent free, though...
Deporting all the foreign criminals would free up some prison space for our home grown nonces. It’s a win win scenario.
Are you suggesting that homegrown nonces aren't going to prison because foreigners are taking up prison space?
That's a new one on me.......bleedin immigrants, taking our jobs, homes, women, and now prison spaces.
According to Nigel Farage immigrants are also coming over here taking up all the space on motorways and causing traffic jams which are making our man late for appointments.
Will this madness ever end?
and definitely no focus on how those services got that way.
Probation service being a fine example of failing Grayling in action plus the problems with an ideological belief that the private sector is always better.
Even four years after being brought back into public management its struggling to recover
https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1983928827643388058?t=SnO2Ev2P_QubFk8QkXrNbg&s=19
Go further right Starmzy.
Labour in danger of splitting the left vote now must stand aside at the next election. 😉
No one could have seen this one coming 2 years ago .
48% expressing support for parties to the right of Labour. That’s more than a little bit concerning at this stage. It doesn’t suggest to me that the country is ready to tack left from here in any meaningful way, even if Labour could be persuaded to push more of their left wing policies and stop chasing the right on migration and benefits… could they take more people with them? Yes, plenty of people ready to vote Green… some might come back if Labour drop the right wing stuff… but how many more could they still lose to Reform in the process? Is Reform + Tory support going to tip over to 50% once the Conservatives change leader and the future tax rises all the parties know are needed have finally kicked in? Bleak times.
I think people are entitled to look at the Kebatu affair and think it is shocking, and it doesn't make them "far right".
Why? Most people are used to encountering 'ethnically pure' Brits on the make via the so-called welfare state and cash-in-hand white van men. The only difference is the ethnicity.
🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1983928827643388058?t=SnO2Ev2P_QubFk8QkXrNbg&s=19
I see that the Tories have dropped one point since the previous poll which means that Labour are now level pegging with them.
Sir Keir Starmer must welcome some positive news like that among all the other doom and gloom he has to contend with.
I think people are entitled to look at the Kebatu affair and think it is shocking, and it doesn't make them "far right".
Why? Most people are used to encountering 'ethnically pure' Brits on the make via the so-called welfare state and cash-in-hand white van men. The only difference is the ethnicity.
This is genuinely one of the silliest statements I have ever read. Not just on the internet, but in any written form. It really manages to pack in an amazing amount of silliness into a small number of words. I mean - "the only difference between welfare claimants and sex offenders is ethnicity" as a response to the state freeing and paying off a convicted child sex offender. Incredible work. 10/10. AI could never replicate it.
AI could never replicate it.
It could if it had been fed too much ale yesterday evening, like I had...
You're quite right, it is utter drivel.
😳
AI could never replicate it.
It could if it had been fed too much ale yesterday evening, like I had...
Fair play, but you may have stumbled onto a brilliant idea: real ale-cooled AI machines. Someone get me Sam Altman on the phone!
Fair play, but you may have stumbled onto a brilliant idea: real ale-cooled AI machines.
The way I felt first thing this morning, I would much rather have stumbled onto a hangover cure.
Honestly are Labour really going to try to raise taxes on people earning more than 45k by pretending they're not 'working people'? I doubt even they could be that stupid but if so they'll be on single figure poll ratings and Starmer and Reeves will be toast.
A normal person would look at this and say "this is an absolute ****ing shambles, the state is failing in its most basic responsibilities, apparently there's enough money to hand out £500 to sex offenders because they're feeling a bit stroppy, and the government is accountable in a democracy".
Under the previous administration the bung was thousands (£3000) for a no-fuss departure by the deportee, he could have appealed the decision. I suspect the £70 is the normal prison release payment because we're not savages and need to demonstrate to the recidivist that society will have their back if they behave.
Honestly are Labour really going to try to raise taxes on people earning more than 45k by pretending they're not 'working people'? I doubt even they could be that stupid but if so they'll be on single figure poll ratings and Starmer and Reeves will be toast.
I am convinced they are trying to deliberately lose the next election, everything they do is so ****ing ridiculous. Loads of working people earning more than £45K would have voted for them and although may not have objected to a tax raise for the right reasons (i.e making public services better for majority of people) they are probably not so happy about tax being raised for nothing (i.e to fill a black hole/make 'books balance')
Starmer and Reeves will be toast.
Starmer, Reeves and indeed the Labour party are toast. This was their last chance and they've blown it. As in many other European countries the parties that were once the major players have ****ed up to the point they are all but irrelevant.
Top of NHS band 6 is 46,580. That's a lot of nurses, therapists, paramedics, radiographers etc. Not dr's and consultants.
Exactly. What they should have said was lower paid working people and yes they should not only have no tax increases they should have tax reductions offset by tax increases on wealthy non working people.
Trying to define what a working person is will just annoy people even more as people are clued up enough to know that a working person is someone that works and has to pretty much work to live whereas a non-working (weathly) person is someone who doesn't have to work to get income.
This isn't policy yet - nothing is until the budget is announced, or more accurately until the Finance Bill that supports the budget is passed (although that isn't going to be an issue with Labour's majority)
It was from "sources" - so could be
Government flying a kite to gauge reaction;
Govt putting out already rejected bad ideas so that what is actually announced seems more reasonable;
Someone in Govt or Treasury who thinks it's a terrible idea leaking it to prove the point and influence decision;
Or just speculation based on a broad range of ideas that the Treasury will be working on and it's been picked up through Whitehall/Westminster gossip.
It is interesting that there is so much briefing/leaking, speculation and general frenzy in the media about this budget - a sign that this budget is key to Govt and that the Govt is performing really badly and so is really weak internally
Starmer and Reeves will be toast.
Starmer, Reeves and indeed the Labour party are toast. This was their last chance and they've blown it. As in many other European countries the parties that were once the major players have ****ed up to the point they are all but irrelevant.
Totally.
It's been downhill since the first few months and each bit of political capital that is lost with the public is twice as hard to get back.
My real interest lies when/if the big economic global (Ai) crunch materialises - It's going to happen. Probably under their watch and they will have no plan, or support ideas. Trump's tariffs are draining the economy in the USA. What goes around comes around.
Also re: budget - tossing random daft tax and spend ideas around just proves they have no plan and are out of their depth. It's not a way to fix a country. Until they realise they don't need to 'get money" things will continue downwards.
(They really should go radical now they have nothing to lose. It's probably their absolute last chance.)
Any ideas as to who or what should replace Starmer and Reeves?
Optics, innit? A decade or so ago anyone earning £45k earned the equivalent of close to £90k today. I struggle to track gentle changes over a long period of time and I assume other people are the same.
Why not just scrap tax relief on ISAs entirely? There must be huge amounts of money loitering there that the treasury could grab a percentage of the interest on.
I struggle to track gentle changes over a long period of time and I assume other people are the same.
It's bullshit. As I've said before, if the high tax band had tracked inflation since 2021 instead of being frozen it would now be at around 64k. In 2028 when it is due to be unfrozen it should be at around 71k. And now it looks like they might be thinking of taking it down to 45k? That's a huge extra tax hit for everyone earning 50k or more. If they're going to take an extra 1k a year off me I want it spent on hospitals and schools not filling a blank space in their balance sheet because the OBR f##### up it's forecasts.
General Election 2029 is going to be a ****ing embarrassment. In the dumbed down bullshit world it is simply going to be two blocs. One saying Anyone But Reform (but not being able to offer a credible vision of why) the other saying Anyone But Labour (and being given a free hit on record in office because they don't have one whilst being able to out-nasty the other bloc no matter how far right they've shifted the window by then).
So depressing.
To be fair it was anyone but Tory last time apparently.
Least worse option is a shite way of voting. It just empowers the least worse option which can still be bad.
Few more cycles of awfulness and the public might want something better that has little to do with the RW way of doing things - it's exhausted anyway and offers no solutions.
It's just taking time to prove that to the 'sensible' middle ground.
To be fair it was anyone but Tory last time apparently.
Least worse option is a shite way of voting. It just empowers the least worse option which can still be bad.
Few more cycles of awfulness and the public might want something better that has little to do with the RW way of doing things - it's exhausted anyway and offers no solutions.
It's just taking time to prove that to the 'sensible' middle ground.
I mean 3-4 parties all offering a version of austerity as a solution to the problems created by austerity is just plain dumb.
General Election 2029 is going to be a ****ing embarrassment.
It's going to be a simple re-run of the brexit vote. Establishment politicians with their patronising there is no alternative prospectus vs an insurgent populist party with a groundswell of anger, resentment and hatred fuelling their momentum. We've seen it before and we know exactly how it will go. The main uncertainty is whether the corporate and media establishment remains aligned to the Tories and/or Labour, or jumps ship to Farage as they've done in the US with Trump. If the former there might still be a chance of an anyone-but-Farage outcome, if the latter it's game over.
Starmer and Reeves have a lot to answer for. Mabye it needs to happen to shock the centrists out of their hubris, but the price will be an end to the welfare state and a fully privatised NHS.
The main uncertainty is whether the corporate and media establishment remains aligned to the Tories and/or Labour, or jumps ship to Farage as they've done in the US with Trump.
The media jumped years ago.
"Here to comment on that without challenge is Nigel Farage..."
It's noticeably ramped up since Labour became the government. He no longer needs to appear; journalists/presenters put forward his "concerns" on his behalf for him seemingly on autopilot these days. And there's a feedback loop between social media and print and broadcast news that's being very successfully played by the right (through ownership and control of amplification on the big platforms) that aligns so so nicely for Farage.
The media jumped years ago.
True, but I don't think the corporate establishment are anywhere close to jumping on the Reform bandwagon yet. I would know because I work for a firm which is very good at positioning itself politically and I've not yet heard anything at work which indicates that they're taking Farage very seriously yet. For now Reform support resides mainly among the reactionary angry white men (and their wives) cohort. That's still enough to cause major damage to Labour and the Tories but probably not enough to win an election outright. I can see the next Labour election campaign being fought on a 'vote Tories get Reform' slogan which might just be enough to scare tory liberals into throwing their lot in with Labour centrists.
I don't think the corporate establishment are anywhere close to jumping on the Reform bandwagon yet
Not UK companies perhaps. But a few big USA companies are already on it... some very embedded in the UK.
Reeves on live now - speaking in delusional terms about her choices. Claiming she got the economy on sure footing and now the world economy is causing all the problems she faces. (We always have a world economy.)
"Got to get public debt down" apparently - good luck with that as doing that is diametrically opposed to getting growth.
Absolutely no self-reflection on her choices.
She has everything back to front - she's prepping us for tax rises of course which will do further damage.
I wish she'd stop trying to straddle all bases too - you can't talk up reducing the 'debt' and point out bad roads etc that need fixing.
Either government invests its own money to fix the problems and you let the very optional 'debt' increase or you try to balance the books and **** every up.
"Deal with the world as we find it - rather than the world i'd like it to be." is the Centrist mantra of the irresponsible. The government does make society, it does create jobs, and wealth.
It's one of the most disingenuous speeches I've ever heard a politician selling to the broken public.
Greens can have a few more points.
It might be better now to let SKS and Reeves have their idiotic budget, so we can get rid of the worthless lying oligarch owned time wasters as soon as possible. Everyone can now see the emperor is naked.
For the love of god can ‘the 6’ not just turn every thread into another one with you lot indulging in your competitive Starmer slagging? 🙄
This thread is about Farage and Reform. You clearly hate the present government, but just imagine what a Reform one would look like
For the love of god can ‘the 6’ not just turn every thread into another one with you lot indulging in your competitive Starmer slagging? 🙄
This thread is about Farage and Reform. You clearly hate the present government, but just imagine what a Reform one would look like
Nothing more than I would expect from a member the centrist mob, (the real big 6), so obsessed with attacking the left they don't even know what thread they are on.
You might have got a bit mixed up there Binners.
Anyway, Reeves is telling the public how it is. They won’t like it. The promise in headline tax rates at the last election is going to look very foolish, when it was obvious to all parties that tax rises this Parliament were going to be necessary. Whoever put that promise into the manifesto should go.
Whoever put that promise into the manifesto should go.
Along with whoever continually repeated it of course...
Anyway, Reeves is telling the public how it is. They won’t like it.
Not really - she's constructed a new messy neoliberal narrative to try and not undermine her original narrative.
Neither narratives are accurate or necessary.
(And she even managed pop in there we need to spend on defence. How so - the public finances are dire?)
All this exists because of:
a) her own fiscal rules
b) misunderstanding how the government funds the state
c) kow-towing high finance (which doesn't fund the state) through bond markets which the government enables
d) lying about tough decisions.
e) refusing to deal with hoarding wealth.
f) entrenching the idea of black-holes in the mind of folk - without actually explaining that money has actually gone somewhere in the economy. Dumb.
Every single one of those things is within her remit to change.
The only thing she can't easily change is - there being no appetite for tax rises. But they could have handled that better from the start.
For the love of god can ‘the 6’ not just turn every thread into another one with you lot indulging in your competitive Starmer slagging? 🙄
This thread is about Farage and Reform. You clearly hate the present government, but just imagine what a Reform one would look like
Nothing more than I would expect from a member the centrist mob, (the real big 6), so obsessed with attacking the left they don't even know what thread they are on.
On this forum I've never once told Centrists to shut up going on about Brexit, Farage, Trump, Tories etc. and yet the forum is chock full of a ratio of about 10:1 of abuse of all things screaming right-wing but we must go soft on the government of the day. (Also to the right .. go figure.)
How can this be?
It's a distortion of understanding political arguments. In other words the framing of bad politics is always okay when it's not Labour.
More delusion.