How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!
Also a very compelling reason to nuke Clacton from orbit.
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
My OH.
I've no idea why, she spent last year on JSA taking a gap year and looking for work about as intensely as I look for the salad option on a pub menu, costs the NHS an absolute fortune and continuously complains about public services.
But despite working in HR she has very strong views on immigrants and TGBTQ+ issues, and thinks Boris needed more time to get the job done. Details of what the jobs he was doing are vague.
I'm related to people who still think Liz Truss was great and should have been given more time. Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.
Perhaps though it is better to let him win a seat.
He already had a seat as an MEP. And he re-won it, then forced a referendum and got the result he wanted. He needs to be thoroughly beaten in the polls. And before anyone says anything about Nick Griffin fading away after being 'exposed' on Question Time, he faded away because his policies were adopted by mainstream political parties so he wasn't needed any more.
#PrayforTinas
All of my in-laws will vote Tory. I'll be polite and say that they have a limited interest in the nuances of current affairs. Voting Tory is just what you do for people like them. They're genuinely the nicest people you could meet too. I just avoid talking politics with them!
#PrayforTinas #PrayforTinas'sNewPatio 😉
A nice timely bit of good news today as another levelling up success is revealed
Why one of Britain’s wealthiest villages has netted a £300k taxpayer-funded levelling-up grant
The latest polling
https://Twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1800558618254942681?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
So has Sunak managed to launch his manifesto without any PR disasters today then?
Does announcing a promise on NI, which they promised on in 2019 but broke in 2020(?), and now announcing again in 2024 'because you can trust us?' count as a PR disaster?
He comes across as out of touch and financially isolated from reality
this is crying out for a “Common People” parody.
Mel Stride (yes, him again) is presently being absolutely dismantled on channel 4 news by Krishnan about all the Tory sums that don’t add up
He’s got the look of a man that knows he’s talking shit, I’d have respect for him if he just said “**** it” on camera and launched himself from the balcony, preferably to land on a gaggle of Tufton Street spads
Stride's super power is being able to talk the same old shite about lies over and over again without shame.
Think about a system and a set of circumstances that allows someone like that to attain high office.
Now think about the civil servants who have to deal with his ilk.
Now try not to be cynical.
Mel Stride flailing. No wonder no other minister is prepared to go on the record defending this bag of old bollocks…
https://Twitter.com/channel4news/status/1800543802039345564?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Also loving the fact that Sunak's tax giveaway isn't crashing the economy because the markets aren't reacting - they know none of it will happen.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The latest polling
Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week (though admittedly from a higher starting point) as LD and REF increase their share.
The bookies have got the Lib Dems to win more seats than the Tories now at 3/1. It was 4/1 a couple of days ago and 6/1 last week
That’ll have them twitching in the ‘Blue Wall’
Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.
Yeah, my FIL is one.
"Basically, we live in a Muslim state"
"Climate change is bollocks"
"Immigrants get an iPhone, car and free house"
Mad thing is, Truss's little flutter nearly lost them their house sale. They had to move in with us for a few months...he still won't accept that the Tories are all total ****s because something something labour Corbyn 70's strikes something.
All the polls I have seen for Clacton show (CON+REF)>LAB That means if you split the right wing vote down the middle one of those 2 cheeks of the same arse still beat LAB. I think it’s either CON or REF.
Interesting, I can't find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.
Obviously if the Tories are in the best position to defeat Farage then I wouldn't hesitate to vote Tory.
Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week
The YouGov poll out today has Labour falling 3 points but the sample is relatively very small - 1,611. The Redfield poll out yesterday however had Labour up 3 points and the sample was huge - 10,000
Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don't seem feasible - how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?
In my dreams maybe but sadly extraordinarily unlikely in the real world.
Basically, we live in a Muslim state
I had the argument the other day. Only 6.5 % of the UK identify as Muslim. Tell him that and he’ll probably tell they are all in positions of power and rule over us Crusaders , you Sunak, Khan, Romesh Ranganathan.
Surely voting Tory is pointless if we live in a Muslim state.
"Yeah, my FIL is one.
“Basically, we live in a Muslim state”"
I feel like presents are a great opportunity to help friends and family learn about new things.
So for Christmas, you should buy him a flight to a Muslim state.
You could get him the return for his birthday.
From a statistically pure perspective - statistical validity is generally accepted when the sample size is 2,000 or more, subject to the sample selection complying with accepted selection criteria.
I'm not a statistician so will accept comment/correction from those better qualified than me/I.
Interesting, I can’t find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.
Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don’t seem feasible – how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?
Agreed. I can't see it happening but it would be nice.
Thanks slowoldman.
The FT has Reform UK on just 17.6% in Clacton, YouGov have them on 19.5%, and Calculus have them on 38.3%
That's quite a range!
It is. The Electoral Calculus one is quite an outlier! But I think quite a lot of the stuff I've seen on their site is at odds with the others, including the nationwide share and resulting seats.
I live in a little red blob in a sea of blue (cambs). Interestingly I've seen a lot of lib dem boards up in the surrounding villages alongside the labour ones. Also got some lib dem propaganda through attacking kier starmer, no significant mention of the tories. I've got a sinking feeling that the sane vote will be split and Tories will keep some seats around here. Spoke to our works landlord today, he's aghast at the prospect of labour putting inheritance tax on his 200 acres of prime arable...
Not sure if the stats on voting intentions are quite solid yet, and electoral calculus seems to be based on older data from what I can tell. FT seems a little more in touch. And Frank, you and your fellow canvassers doing a good job in Newark if FT is reliable.
The stopthetories and best for Britain still waiting for more data before they make a recommendation on tactical vote for seats like midsussex, but FT seems to show that LDs are the gtto option.
There are very few permutations of that FT calculator which don't return a Tory in my constituency 🙁
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
It was last Liberal 100 years ago. Obviously never been a Labour seat. LD candidate is a solid option having stood before and is a local councillor. Thinking I might vote for her and campaign for Reform?
Wow, just noticed that Farage stood her in 97!
All that matters is what we will know at breakfast time on 5th July.
You - and everyone you know - can and will make a difference if they...
- use their vote; this, to me is the single most important consideration; people worked long and hard to secure the universal franchise; do not denigrate them by not voting.
- use the vote to elect the MP and party most likely to deliver what you want
- it won't be a perfect outcome for anyone
- vote for change; vote for a better future for you and your family; that means...vote Labour.
^^Amen to all of that. 👍
Voting Tory is just what you do for people like them. They’re genuinely the nicest people you could meet too. I just avoid talking politics with them!
They seem like nice people because you avoid talking politics. Same at work where I am surrounded by tory voters but people don't really talk politics in the workplace.
However, whenever anything political does come up you realise they are not quite so nice in their attitudes towards less fortunate people than them and quickly go to the default position of them being in a better position because they tried harder with absolutely zero awareness of their many privileges in life.
These are not the horrible all immigrants should be shot type people but they are still very complicit in how horrible the country is to others by blindly voting tory.
Both parties have made a hash of debating the tax cut or spend with endlessly stupid comments during interviews - Jonathan Ashworth today going around the houses with his unfunded comments about the Tories.
He sounds ridiculous and unable to explain what he's talking about.
In 2017 the Labour manifesto was described at fully costed - this is nothing new. It's ridiculous speak to appease acceptance by certain people in the market system. (And by the way fully funded in that context was still criticised heavily.)
It will be bad for all of us if this conversation is not fully expanded. It will constantly saddle Labour with a restriction on what they can or can't do.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons, instead of feeding them with useful information.
vote for change; vote for a better future for you and your family; that means…vote Labour*
*depending on constituency. While in the overwhelming majority of places voting Lab is the best way of GTTO, there are a decent number of places where it isn’t.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons, instead of feeding them with useful information.
To be fair the time for educating people is the rest of the 5 years not during the campaign.
The standard of electioneering is terrible treating the public as morons
To be fair, 52% of voters recently believed some made-up bullshit written on the side of a bus, so you know…
Mad thing is, Truss’s little flutter nearly lost them their house sale. They had to move in with us for a few months…he still won’t accept that the Tories are all total **** because something something labour Corbyn 70’s strikes something.
I wonder if in 20 years time instead of voting for a needed change everybody whose under 60 now will refuse to vote for a new friendly Tory party because of Brexit something something Boris parties something something Truss cabbage mortgage rates sunak D day something something etc etc
People do have long memories and the last 14 years have been so awful for lots of people that I wonder if large parts of the population could ever bring themselves to vote Tory again .
The Communists, er Greens sorry, have let it be known that people on 50k are wealthy and must pay more tax and NI which is fairer because working hard and earning honest money must be punished...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69111362
