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I have a question, have the government/the national factored in a potential high growth of EV sales into their energy strategy? The VW ID3 (due to price, range etc) makes me think that we are going to see the end of internal combustion cars for personal use, sooner rather than later.
Cheers! Before I read it - will the government actually listen to the National Grids advice? Or are we going to get the usual dithering and incompetence?
I assume that's a rhetorical question!
I expect many of these decent range cars will recharge overnight which will help - back to more common off-peak pricing again to encourage it? Doesn't answer your question though.
Won't the majority of cars be charged overnight when the grid is doing not very much anyway?
I assume that’s a rhetorical question!
Given our competent response to brexit, I think rolling blackouts and riots are guaranteed.
According to the many EV threads on here the reply from those that work in the field the answer is yes and the grid can manage anyway.
Yes, to the question is it in plan: National Grid ESO and the regional networks have had it in plan for years.
Horror stories aplenty referring to a GB peak demand exceeding 80GW (vs the current winter peak of ~46GW) but that’s assuming full electrification of residential heat and all EVs want to charge at peak too.
There is likely to be a lot of off-peak (overnight) charging and associated incentives** as that is when there is adequate generation capacity available from wind and existing gas CCGTs perhaps supported by storage/batteries.
No solar at night obviously.
**(Perhaps that should read high costs to charge at peak to discourage!).
Appropriate government policy? I very much doubt that will come any time soon from bojo.
The desire for electric car will grow quicker than people's ability to charge over night at home. While people will off street parking will have no issue, being able to charge overnight while parked on street outside residential properties will require some direction and organisation from government. Pretty sure that will control the growth to a sustainable level.
Will it really be that much of an increase to what already happens at 5 to 9am most days when 10s of thousands of canteen kettles/computers/workshops/etc are switched on simultaneously?
see the end of internal combustion cars for personal use, sooner rather than later.
This kind of stuff makes me nervous - how soon do we think? I was about to “buy” my current 2.0d out of the PCP, but should I really be thinking of seeing out the next 2 years and swapping it to a hybrid / EV when the term is up?
plan is/was to keep the car as a high mileage oil burner for 9 years before it gets scrapped...
Whilst I'm sure the grid has plenty of capacity for overnight charging for quite a while to come the government does need to start investing more in local generation and battery storage, they seem more interested in fracking at the minute though.
plan is/was to keep the car as a high mileage oil burner for 9 years before it gets scrapped…
Arent you London based? I can see Diesels becoming uneconomical to keep for taxation reasons long before 9 years (including bans on city centres etc). Even Derby is considering a ban on Diesels. Doesnt mean it will happen soon but I think Diesels will get devalued because of the issues and the usage restrictions will make EVs more useable day to day anyway.
plan is/was to keep the car as a high mileage oil burner for 9 years before it gets scrapped…
If resale value isn’t ever going to be a concern, what is it that’s making you nervous about other people switching to EV’s over the next ten years ?
Arent you London based?
Yes but I don't drive around London in it. It's for regular high milage motorway trips for work and biking events so very suitable for the purpose. I just don't want to end up paying a ridiculous VED in 5 years time or have it forced to be scrapped, nor do I really want another round of PCP. Yet I can use todays "balloon" monies to toward the hybrid / EV in 2 years which os starting to feel more sensible.
On the Grid point - aren't all the chargers low voltage by default, albeit they can be ramped up for quick charge? So in reality we might see an averaging of usage yet albeit higher energy usage overall throughout a 24hr period.
This kind of stuff makes me nervous – how soon do we think? I was about to “buy” my current 2.0d out of the PCP, but should I really be thinking of seeing out the next 2 years and swapping it to a hybrid / EV when the term is up?
plan is/was to keep the car as a high mileage oil burner for 9 years before it gets scrapped…
Kryton- nothing is going to happen that quickly in the UK. There's plenty of IC cars to run into the ground as EVs behind become more popular/suitable.
Your 9 year plan sounds reasonable enough, EVs will of came on along by then and be more feasible.
I was just reading this:
...agreeing therefore with Breadcrumb. ICE not ruled out until 2040 in the UK, way beyond my 9yr plan and the point about infrastructure is very relevant. Surely we need to wait for fast chargers to be commonplace on garage forecourts before mass adoption by the likes of me (Sales reps for example) trawling the motorways in confidence.
On a current decent range car I may be able to make an example journey from London to Liverpool in my 2019 EV (one of a choice of about 5 cars IIRC), but once I'm at my clients office / hotel where would I charge it to make the journey back?
I can see any government incentivising a move to EV by changing VED though, and as above this does need a thought and investment as to how electric power can be sustained for 24hr periods though the grid. I was looking at Volvo's new Recharge range the other day. 55hrs charge through a 3 pin plug for 250 mile range, yet and extra payment of £5000 for a fast charger gets you 5.5hrs to 80% at 11kwh.
So, 5.5hrs at 11kwh - thats sounds to me like a lot of people leaving the car in the garage at 11kwh overnight to prevent range anxiety in the morning. I doubt most households are drawing that overnight today. In perspective, thats 11 x 1000w kettles being boiled continuously for 5.5 hours, approx £1.75 per hour and £9.60 a night.
The UK has just laid a massive cable to France (from around the corner from me) so it can get electric from that there Uirope..
So, those who intend to buy an EV can go ahead... Uirope will bail us out.
And as I wrote my post the scale of this starts to reach my brain
On a current decent range car I may be able to make an example journey from London to Liverpool in my 2019 EV (one of a choice of about 5 cars IIRC), but once I’m at my clients office / hotel where would I charge it to make the journey back?
So perhaps IHG/Premier Inn/Hilton etc will start to need to think about installing charging equipment in their car parks for this kind of thing? Huge long term private investment that will only be made at the point of certainty, not to mention the business process of tariffs to apply and manage. And when visiting Liverpool, I bet there no Muti story that can accommodate but a few cars to be charged.
On our road of 60 houses there 5 cars less than 3 years old, so that's around 3% replacement each year it's going to be a slow process before the even half our street has a car less than 6 years old let alone an EV. There is 1 plug in hybrid, but that can hardly be classified as a EV due to the very low range it will have on an electric charge. Probably 1/3 of those cars do not go to 9-5 jobs.
There are at least 10 houses of the 60 with a PV system. PV is getting cheaper and more efficient year on year so the supply of home generation should grow faster than EV and you could have at least 1/3 of those portable batterys available when they are needed to store the PV energy.
So the control of the demand for peak energy is really down to the automotive manufacturing industry to provide a suitable product that will smooth power demand.
The reason streetlights remain on overnight is that they use the power generated by the big base power stations that take hours or days to come on-line so can't be turned off overnight. There's other users of course that similarly can't turn on/off over short timescales. I don't know just how much is soaked up this way but it's there to be diverted to EV charging.
Looking at current usage of ICE vehicles they mostly aren't used for long journeys so most charging would be simple "top-up" to account for the sub ten mile commute in the morning rather than a complete charge from empty.
This kind of stuff makes me nervous – how soon do we think?
I would imagine it will happen about as quickly as when everyone* switched from petrol to diesel about 15 years ago.
We're not at the beginning of the end of the death of the ICE Car, more the end of the beginning.
VW Group is just releasing it's latest model line-up there's been a new Passat, Golf, Octavia, Leon and Ibiza and a few others released in the last 18 months or so, they wouldn't do that unless they expected at least a 5 year life out of them.
They've also released their ID range too, they had an EV Golf before, but no one bought it, the problem with making EV versions of ICE cars is they have pretty different requirements for packaging and an EVised car is usually pretty expensive and not great.
I think VW group will be one ones to make EV mainstream, they've got the numbers and they've out-Tesla'd Tesla - on the face of it their 800v tech is better than Teslas, smaller, lighter, cooler, faster recharging.
but it’s there to be diverted to EV charging.
This touches a bit on the industry I work in. Lighting manufacturers and suppliers are already building and offering charging points into their columns to further utilise that energy source.
current usage of ICE vehicles
Current yes, but we need to think of the big picture here, which is can The Grid sustain the grown in EV usage and range being promoted?
The VW ID3 (due to price, range etc) makes me think that we are going to see the end of internal combustion cars for personal use, sooner rather than later.
Not really. Most people are not spending £25k on a car. A lot of people are still buying used cars at £10K or less.
Strange that £25k is seen as low price, to me a low priced electric car would be nearer £10 so could match the lower priced ICE cars.
Kerley makes a good point.
As a real example, the replacement XC40 Recharge to replace our 2008 Kuga (not that I'd buy a new new car) is predicted at £46k plus £5k for the fast charger. A replacement 2.0d Ford Kuga is £24k RRP, and I'd predict I'm not paying that for it with a little negotiation.
A very big difference.
So perhaps IHG/Premier Inn/Hilton etc will start to need to think about installing charging equipment in their car parks for this kind of thing?
Erm, why? Why should it be left to businesses to supply charging points? The whole EV charging infrastructure should be lead by a government who is committed to it and one that leads from the front in both the organisation of charging facilities but also build them.
As is, we have a government that likes to talk shit, lie and frankly do pretty much **** all when it comes to actually put in place anything from a manifesto...
We’re all savvy to this now, so anyone who thinks ICE cars will be off the road in less than 10 years is frankly hallucinating into their bacon rolls. 30 years and half EV with commercial and all government vehicles (incl taxis/ambulances/police/rubbish collection/grass cutting/one call doctors and the many myriad of council vehicles/army/RAF/Navy etc.) first, then we should see a commitment from a government that will encourage private users to switch over.
Don’t forget it was the Conservative government who put the axe on the East Coast mainline electrification...
Which says it all doesn’t it.
There is no one way of tackling Climate Change or any other initiative of this magnitude, it needs to be a cohesive direction with ICE and EV working together as transport solutions.
Smart chargers will help. If you plug in your car at 7pm and need it at 7am, but it only needs three hours to actually charge, the grid can talk to all these smart chargers and schedule charging so that everyone's car is ready in the morning.
The ID.3 won't even be £25k, it will be at least £30k and likely £35k+ if you want the mid-range battery and floor mats. So yeah EVs are arriving that are more and more tempting and the ID.3 is one of those but it's very far from the game changer that will trigger mass adoption of EVs
The reason streetlights remain on overnight is that they use the power generated by the big base power stations that take hours or days to come on-line so can’t be turned off overnight. There’s other users of course that similarly can’t turn on/off over short timescales. I don’t know just how much is soaked up this way but it’s there to be diverted to EV charging.
From what I understand isn't this current base load a mix of gas/coal/nuclear? And here in lies the problem for a move to a more EV / carbon free world - that we need to reduce the reliance on those fossil fuel generators but the plan to have 3-4 new nuclear stations (to supply the base laod that compliments the renewables) is now down to 1 at Hinckly and that's running late/over budget.
Early days for them but I really love Gravitricity as a mechanism to store excess renewable energy and release it overnight for EVs or peak times. Doesn't need water storage solutions that we don't have many locations for in the UK. Small land footprint, Uses old mine shafts (must be some ex-fracking holes ;->), can be replicated/scaled-up (if drilling holes is viable)...
Just looking at the loading for this. An electric car charges at around 7kw overnight (average). That’s a 30-36amp load. Street lighting should be wired in 16mm swa, so should be man enough for the job. Just got to watch how many charging points you put in on a circuit. So install a % of new street lighting poles with an EV charging point. Government has to give local councils a grant to do that. Domestic properties currently can get a grant to install an ev charging point. Hotels will have a business case to install ev charging points as they can charge a premium for the service to guests.
Grid load would have to be spread. Overnight charging as previously mentioned would work fine. Smart meters would provide enough information for off peak tariffs so no need for the old off peak meters/consumer units.
Lots of Holiday Inns have Polar rapid chargers already.
Mean price of a new car in the UK is just over £33k. Many of the repmobiles on the motorway and school run SUVs are way more than that. Lots of affordable EVs at that or below. No, it’s not Dacia Duster cheap yet but with running costs factored in lots of EVs make a decent case for themselves next to the ICE equivalent.
National Grid will be fine. They already pay several companies to take away excess generation overnight, EVs on cheap overnight tariffs will start soaking that up. Smart meters make even more flexible pricing possible too, my energy company offers a tariff that tracks the wholesale cost every half hour. It’s 9-10p most of the waking day, jumps to 25p-ish between 5 and 7pm, then way down to a few pence overnight (sometimes it goes negative and you get paid to take it).
Oh, and there’s vehicle to grid trials already running in some areas, I was going to do the Octopus one but they’ve been taking their time and wasn’t sure I’d get a car when I needed one.
Plug in when you get home, let the local grid take spare power from the car to manage the evening peak, put cheaper overnight units back in when it all calms down again.
Makes excellent use of what are effectively big storage batteries on wheels.
@aberdeenlune Pretty sure I saw a video on Fully Charged youtube channel implementing the street lamp charging thing.
Looking at current usage of ICE vehicles they mostly aren’t used for long journeys
Point is, as the cars get better, more available and the infrastructure expands to support it that will change. I appreciate that most people will still only be driving 10 miles here and 10 miles there though as that's the vast majority of journeys.
EVs as mentioned upthread are manageable - they are mostly charged off-peak and provide a significant resource back to the grid. Get enough of them operating smartly and you have a virtual power station.
No, the bigger problem is the need to stop using gas. It's the dominant source of domestic heating and needs to be replaced by electrically powered sources, operating at peak times. This is going to need significant grid reinforcement and significant new renewable plant.
Lighting manufacturers and suppliers are already building and offering charging points into their columns to further utilise that energy source.
There's a couple of streetlights in the road around the corner from me that have got EV chargers in them. Not everybody on that road has a driveway so makes sense.
Looks quite neat. Not sure what stops the local scallys from robbing your charging cable though...
Simple answer to this is NO. There is ZERO chance of the grid being able to cope with a complete EV roll out throught Europe. There are some recent papers by the EU commission which are now publicly aavailble, that despite the 2050 "goal", there will still be a 70% reliance on liquid fuels accross the entire energy markets (this inlcudes electric, liquid fuels etc). To hit the equivelant "electric" only option would require the European grid cpacity to increase by a factor of x10 - this will NEVER EVER happen.
Pure EV have a place for local emission controls, but that's it. The only way to secure a sustainable more greener future is through liquid fuels produced using electric (off-grid) using carbon and biomass capture.
CNG is an alternative solution for small vehicles, but the infrastructure to cope with this is extremely complex, and the life cycle assesment means that at a cradle to grave level it would struggle against liquid fuels. Pure EV's if you read all of the research are the devil in disguise..
Not really. Most people are not spending £25k on a car. A lot of people are still buying used cars at £10K or less.
Strange that £25k is seen as low price, to me a low priced electric car would be nearer £10 so could match the lower priced ICE cars.
The market has changed a lot in recent years, people aren't buying £50k cars, £25k cars or £10k as much, they're buying £500, £300 and £150 a month PCP deals. Yeah there's still a healthy cash/loan market, but it's getting smaller.
Obviously there has to be a new market for a second-hand market to exist, I've never bought a new Car and doubt I ever will.
Maybe the ICE car will never die, hell if half the cars on the road were EVS it would make a huge difference.
There is likely to be a lot of off-peak (overnight) charging and associated incentives**
Earlier this week on linkedin I saw this post:
"Last night, we saw cashout prices go negative for the first time in November. At 00:30, cashout dropped to -£25/MWh whilst at 01:30 it dropped to -£3.50/MWh.
This means that our battery customers were again being paid to take energy off the system and charge their batteries"
Seems battery storage is more advanced than I and other posters had maybe realised. link to EDF site giving more info: https://www.edfenergy.com/large-business/energy-solutions/battery-storage
Maybe the ICE car will never die, hell if there were half the cars on the road it would make a huge difference.
FTFY 😉
Don’t forget one major point in switching over to an EV... whilst today it might be seen as relatively “free” (no VED & £7.00 to charge over night at home) the government will need to fill the £28bn in lost income revenue from VED and VAT on fossil fuels...
Who do you think will have to stump up the difference?
Yip, EV owners.
Expect a levy or cost-per-mile or some other form of taxation to be landed on EV’s.
Simple mafs innit.
Enjoy “free” motoring whilst you can.
interesting thread. My current diesel has a year left on it's PCP. For roughly the same money (after fuel saving) per month I could get a nice long range EV, like a Tesla 3. I do wonder though if technology and infrastructure is still at an early stage such that another diesel estate on a 3 yr pcp would make more sense..
I'm in a similar position Iainc but with the lucky position to be able to pay it off an own the car now and save some interest. I don't need a new car and I'm looking for some financial flexibility, so thats what I'll do.
If I can stretch it out until the kids leave home me and Mrs K can consolidate to EV du jour in 9/10 years time when no-doubt the picture will be clearer.
Expect a levy
Lithium Tax?
Strange that £25k is seen as low price, to me a low priced electric car would be nearer £10 so could match the lower priced ICE cars.
Having paid 25840e for a Zoé with its battery these are my comparsion sums over five years at 12000km/year (UK average):
-
Zoé fast charge in blue
25840e on the road at today's exchange rate is roughly £22.2k.
Electricity at 12.5kWh/100km and 13p/kWh = £975
Total = £23.2k
-
Dacia Sandero Stepway with a similar spec to the Zoé
13730e + 750 in tax etc.+ 50e malus = 14530e = £12.5k on the road
Petrol at 5.8l/100km and £1.26/litre = £4384
The extra servicing cost approx 10e/month for a service and extended guarantee pack compared witht the Zoé = 600e = £517.
Extra insurance cost. For me the Zoé saved 80e/year so 480e extra for the sandero= £413
Total £17.3k.
So the Zoé costs 6k more. What they'll be worth on the second-hand market in five years time it's hard to say, on the basis of current EV second-hand values it'll be worth more than the Sandero but not by 6k. On the same basis for eight years (the end of the battery guarantee) the difference closes to less than 3k. I'm prepared to pay 3000/8 = £375 a year more to drive a Zoé than a Sandero Stepway.