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tj - thanks for that. I still think both scenarios are extremely unlikely. The ERG might be mad, but I think they also know that staying in the conservative party and keeping it in power are the only way they'd get anywhere.
A few interesting points here
It'll be SNP again. Lamont (con) is a toadying horrible little man, according to his voting record. There was talk of him accepting a seat in the lord's to let Ruth have a safe seat for her rise to national Tory party. But I think she's seen sense.
I think the lad above underestimates how pissed off Labour remain voters are with Labour (I'm one).
My prediction is UKIP split the Tory vote and labour win....
Anyone who thinks Watson would get more votes as leader than Corbyn is crazy. All this "far left" sensationlism is silly when you compare labours policies to other countries and even against what people say they want (eg, privatisation, NHS spending etc) the majority of the public align with labour policies more than conservative but don't vote that way...
I think I'd have to hope TIG field a candidate in my area so I can vote for them. No matter how good a local labour candidate might be, I can't possibly do something that could put corbyn in power. If Kier Starmer was in charge then possibly.
I'm pretty centrist and it seems I'm like a lot of the population right now - failed on both sides. You ever got corbyn and his lot who seem to want so e kind of socialist/communist utopia that could never work, or an entirely disfunctional (at best) conservative party headed up by someone completely out of their depth.
UKIP will split Tories along with some indies especially in ERG seats - they don't really represent their locations in terms of the mad ideas in some areas - can see some very targeted attacks there.
Labour will be split by indies/TIG/Lib Dems especially in key remain seats - as above
I think the lad above underestimates how pissed off Labour remain voters are with Labour
I have no confidence Labour under the current leadership delivering anything other than a mess on this.