The Met Office..... A shower of

eh ? if its the same day look at the rain radar 😕

I will do and shall no longer trust the MO to know what they're doing.

App has been uninstalled.

Use the percentages. Unless it's zero all day, overall there's a high chance of rain.

worth checking other weather forecasts too especially on the day...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68316887

You can still ride in rain though, right?

Met Office App including a quick look at their rain radar (on the App as well) is by far the most accurate for me on Android. SW England. Always worth checking the rain radar though.. that's the best view.

Put some waterproofs on?

Surely it's just safer to assume that it's raining in Wales.

You can still ride in rain though, right?

Might invalidate frame warranty.

A lot of the wind apps have been getting it very wrong this month - like 10 knots wrong. I think its been a lot warmer than expected and thats busted all the models. But yes on the day/day before the rain radar is the best tool.

Yr.no is my go to weather, all use modelling and there will always be uncertainty. I think it’s unfair to blame a forecast especially given the pretty complex/unstable weather systems kicking around. Maybe buy a coat?

I have a theory on this (and a PhD in palaeoclimatology).

Met Office supercomputer forecasting is trained on decades of past data. But the parameters have shifted - there's more energy in the system now, former weather patterns aren't a good guide to how things will pan out anymore. "Past performance is [s]not[/s] no longer a guarantee of future returns".

Hence, Met Office - and all the other forecasters - are a bit shit these days.

If they could actually do their job

They're very good at it.  You're talking about predicting the future in an extremely complex and chaotic system.  You can't say how good they are if you have no idea what's actually involved in doing it or what's even possible.

If there's one thing that pisses me off (there's more than one actually) it's anti-scientific bollocks from people who have no idea.

All forecasts have been showing rain coming in today for the last few days, ahead of a weather warning for rain today and tomorrow?

I never rely on one forecast. I back that up with rain radar. I try to remember I'm not made of sugar and pack the right kit too.

They’re very good at it. You’re talking about predicting the future in an extremely complex and chaotic system. You can’t say how good they are if you have no idea what’s actually involved in doing it or what’s even possible.

This. Predicting precipitation time and percentage is the equivalent of me asking you not only to tell me not only the score of a particular football game in a month's time will be but also when will the go as be scored.

For future reference clouds often mean rain.

I’m still not sure what caused the trip to be wasted. It’s February, shit weather is expected, so just crack on?

I never use just one forecast if going out somewhere

Hence, Met Office – and all the other forecasters – are a bit shit these days.

I generally disagree with that.

I worked in the marine and offshore industries from 1990 until recently.

The standard of weather forecasting in the last 15 or so years is way better than it was when I 1st started out. In particular the detailed, paid for, site specific forecasts, are generally very, very good.

I still keep a close eye on the weather, generally speaking the Met Office are pretty accurate for 48 - 72 hours.

However, the last 8 months or so, they have been very poor compared to normal.

I find the Met office  pretty good in general, but in middling autumn or winter weather (like today) I have to adjust my expectations of what precipitation there is. I think that’s because of our altitude +300m and the fact that we’re the first hills that weather hits  from the Irish Sea we’re often sat in clouds: whilst not technically raining, the end effect is the same (ie waterproof needed.)

that said, another +1 for Yr.no. I find it even better than the Met office. And their 10 day forecast is pretty good too.

Also, OP you spent 4 hours in the car and didn’t ride, because of a bit of rain? It’s not even cold or windy and you’d have got wet anyway from all the standing water: everywhere is saturated at the moment. Suggest you grow a pair or invest in some wet weather gear.

BBC weather forecast (from as far back as Thursday) clearly showed a large block of rain moving into Wales from early afternoon today, there's even been weather warnings about it.

I had a nice ride from 9am or so through til lunchtime in North Wales, left just as the rain was starting. Trails were damp but no rain actually falling throughout the time I was riding.

Man goes riding in Wales and it rains Shocker!?!

I don't think I've ever ridden in Wales and it hasn't rained at some point during the day 😆

As above - look at the rain radar for incoming clouds; learn to read the forecast properly, look at the % chance and work out the odds; buy some proper wet weather gear, you can still ride in the rain you know?

Penmachno, mate, it’s NEVER wet there. Honest.

Capel Curig is one of the wettest places in the UK, I have been paddling in Anglesey in bright sunshine and people in the Mountains of Eryri are bathed in torential rain, that's why they have waterproofs. 🙂

Haha said the same thing earlier. Was told Manchester would be dry today. Was it hell.

What you need is a weather app that’s always predicting rainfall. That way it’s either right and you’re happy that it’s right  it’s wrong and you’re really happy that it’s wrong

But they can't even get NOW right most of the time.

0% chance of rain, as you look outside and it's walloping down.

Was told Manchester would be dry today.

Its Manchester - dry is relative.

This feels like a thread the OP may wish they hadn't started.

The forecast for today was dull but not raining this morning, and rain by mid afternoon. That's exactly what happened.  Maybe I should start a thread every time the Met Office were bang on.

Tell me about.

A Quick Look last night said it would overcast this morning, sunshine early afternoon and rain late afternoon.

Walked the dog this am and it was dull overcast, then walked down street this afternoon lovely sunny day like a spring day and as we were walking home late afternoon we just got home before it rained.

But they can’t even get NOW right most of the time.

0% chance of rain

It never says 0% chance - always < 5%

Start a gofundme to upgrade their £1.2bn supercomputer?

It never says 0% chance

Cop out of epic proportions.

I've noticed MO has been less reliable recently.

Rain arriving 4-5hrs earlier than forecast only a few hours before, sub 5% chance of rain when it's tipping it down, temperatures way out etc.

Frustrating for sure.

FWIW they got it right today in Bristol 👌

Cop out of epic proportions

But we live in a country with a myriad of microclimates.

I live in a river valley, with a highish plateau 10km north of us, sea 10km to the south, and 200-300m ridges either side.

It can be raining on one side of the valley and dry on the other, or mist/drizzle coming down in the north, but the breeze from the sea keeping it static over the middle part of the valley.

Impossible to forecast all of that in such a small area 😁 so we often get the all-in-one symbol...
🌦 with a 20-30% chance of rain.

I see that and dress for the wet, but am pleasantly surprised if it's dry.

Be interesting to know what the op does for work and how often he ****s up.

Here in the Rhondda the Met Office forecasts are pathetic - they are often forecasting the correct weather the day before and the on the day they actually change it to something which is wrong.

The BBC is generally more often correct, and Google weather seems pretty decent.

I normally look at Apple, Google, BBC and the Met Office and see if there is a consensus.

Dark Skies used to be very accurate some years ago but then it wasn't so much, then Apple bought them.

sub 5% chance of rain when it’s tipping it down,

There's only a 3% of rolling a double 6 and my brother did it twice!! How can that be right??

Statistics just can't be trusted these days

Also, OP you spent 4 hours in the car and didn’t ride, because of a bit of rain?

Who said anything about riding?

I made the trip mainly to walk on the beach with my dogs - not to ride a bike!

Yes, I did still walk them - and got soaked despite fairly appropriate clothing - but I wouldn't have bothered if the met office app* had actually said it was going to rain. I would have stayed at home where I believe it's been dry.

* It's probably not really the MO I'm disappointed with, it's the fact that their app seems to be a bit shit in that at 8:30am it says everything's dry all day and then by 11:30 it decides it's going to rain from 11am all day.

When I looked this morning on the Met Office App, it was predicting rain to come in late afternoon and evening. Which is what happened where I live.

Don't get me started on the BBC weather App, that is totally inaccurate and shitee.

FFS discussing the weather with total strangers is the world renowned British pastime. The fact that it is unpredictable is what makes it such a fascinating topic of discussion ☂️

and got soaked despite fairly appropriate clothing

Did you forget your brolly? You can't blame the Met Office for that.