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No, the figures have shown a rise since the introduction of the new standard/
So TJ - what it comes down to is that you choose to believe and quote an extrapolated survey, sponsored by a government department, that shows the government are doing a good job.
Given our current governments record with statistics...
I choose to believe that a more accurate reflection of crime is given by the actual number of people bothered to complain to the police about the incidence of a crime.
Hmm...
Or I prefer to believe an independent rigorous valid and robust scientific statistical analysis over a simple set of figures known to be inaccurate.
Can you give any actual critique of the BCS? It uses internationally recognised methodology
All political parties accept the BCS as the best method of knowing what is happening with crime. The tories do not attack it as biased as they know it is not.
Edit - I have not heard of any criticism from the tories
haha! the amount of effort you two have put into this argument, imagine if you had put it into trail building or something useful. 😉
Actually TJ - I think you'll find that even the home office accept that neither set of data gives a true reflection of crime trends on its own.
However I think that the reliability of any data put forward by this government to justify its claim that crime is falling is more than questionable
As much as my experience disagrees with TJ's quoted survey, a sample size of 51K is vast in statistical terms. However it doesn't mean it's not open to abuse etc, on that I cannot comment.
Thank you coffeking.
extrapolated survey
Is there any other kind?
Again 50,000 is an absolutely massive sample size for any survey. I doubt very much you will find a statistician willing to argue your case that we cannot extrapolate from a sample of this size.
[zulu]I choose to believe that a more accurate reflection of crime is given by the actual number of people bothered to complain to the police about the incidence of a crime.
This could only be true if [b] EVERY [/b]victim of crime can be bothered and not one goes unreported. This seems unlikely to be the case
Jeessuuss! (in Spanish please)
TJ why are you quoting all these nonsense about statistic this and that when you absolutely know bias could creep in no matter which govt is in power as they only use it to promote themselves.
I think we all know that [b]extrapolated[/b] finding is just that - a positivist approach. Trying to read into it too much or to use it to predict or to explain the behaviour or the reality of society you must be craving a cigarette again even when is the number "significant". Have a cigarette and think about it for a moment. A roll-up will do too ... inhale the smoke and smell the aroma of the cigarette to clear your thought.
In this case how do you explain the reality of the behaviour of an 18 yr old male beating or kicking a 16 yr old female? Yeah right the crime rate is down on paper/figure but it means shite/smoke to someone who has encountered it.
TJ you need cigarette. You lack nicotine boost and now hallucinating crime figures by extrapolation.
As for the 18 yr old male ... if there is a CCTV in the shop use it to prosecute him. Or put up a reward for those that come forward as witness. Fight him ... but use the bureaucrats' way as that will get to his head for a long time. If that fails or no evidence then I would speak to his parents face to face even if he is 18. Tell his parents that one day his son will have to face the consequences of his action. If they don't give a toss let it be but warn the 18 yr old.
Have a cigarette TJ you know you want it. 😆
I love chewkw's approach to reality. In scientific terms, it is what is described as "unhinged", but after a TJ argument with links to articles about the validity of particular statistical method it is like a breath of fresh air.
How can you say crime is falling when I've just read about a crime happening dammit????!!!! 🙂
Crime is down the goverment have the information from the BCS that proves it.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................There a weapons of mass distruction in Iraq that can be used in 45 minutes, the security services information proves it.
samuri - Member
One moments consideration shows that the liklihood of a new girlfriend texting a 2 or 3 year old one out of the blue and for no reason is a bit odd, as is walking into a restaurant full of people and carrying out a sustained and unprovoked attackNormally I'd agree but this is teenage girls we're talking about. All she would have had to do was find the phone number in her boyfriends phone,
'why have you still got this?',
'ummmm....(panics) she keeps texting me. I hate her, yeah, I've told her to go away but she won't'
'I'll text her then, no bitch is chasing after my man'etc. etc.
Which of course totally explains walking into a crowded restaurant and carrying out a sustained and "unprovoked" attack in front of many witnesses! ..... IMHO its more likely that it explains the Police's reticence to proceed, i.e. they are perhaps seeing it as 6 of 1 and a half dozen of the other maybe? My experience of the Police is that an unprovoked assault of the nature described would bring charges of ABH or GBH especially if there were witnesses.
Having been assaulted myself last year by a little pikey who broke my cheekbone, I feel that there really is a place for the caution in the legal system. 6 months inside isn't always going to make somebody a better person.
However, if you kick up a fuss - writing to the local papers, your MP and the Cheif Constable you stand a good chance of this matter being dealt with more fully.
Also, ask your daughter if she would feel comfortable in taking it further. She may know things that she's not telling you. (Speaking here as a father of 3 young adults)
Sounds to me like your daughter got the best lesson of her life.
I bet the next time she brings a low life waster of a boyfriend home and you happen to comment on him reminding you of 'that' incident, she will drop him like a hot potato.
Dady will no longer have to bite his tongue when confronted with 'wrong uns'.
Dont get yourself into trouble. Its not worth it just to feed your ego.
Now if you happen to have a mate who bumps into this pile of crap late at night, well that would be some kind of justice.